July 21, 2011 - Ohio Voters Like Republicans Less Than Obama, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Romney Trails By Only 4 Points

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Although Ohio voters split 46 - 47 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, and they give him a negative 46 - 50 percent job approval, he defeats four leading Republican presidential contenders, three by double digits, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the Ohio U.S. Senate race, State Treasurer Josh Mandel defeats State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 35 - 12 percent in the race for the Republican nomination, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds, but 46 percent of Republicans are undecided.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown beats both of them by double digits:
  • 49 - 34 percent over Mandel;
  • 50 - 32 percent over Coughlin.
In the race for Ohio's support among GOP presidential contenders the leader by a large margin is "don't know," with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 16 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 15 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman at 11 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 8 percent. No other candidate tops 6 percent.

President Obama leads Romney 45 - 41; tops Palin 51 - 35 percent; beats Bachmann 49 - 36 percent and leads Perry 47 - 35 percent.

"Ohio voters may not be wild about President Barack Obama, but at this point they appear to like his potential Republican challengers less, and in some cases a lot less," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"His middling job and re-election ratings show that there may be a potential opportunity to defeat President Obama in 2012 in Ohio, but for that to occur the GOP will have to nominate a candidate that can capture the public's imagination to a degree not yet evident."

Obama has an 84 - 11 percent job approval among Democrats, an 89 - 9 percent disapproval among Republicans and a 54 - 42 percent disapproval among independent voters. The numbers on whether he deserves re-election follow the same trend. Democrats think he deserves re-election 86 - 7 percent; Republicans say no 89 - 7 percent and independents say no 51 - 40 percent.

"Voters in the key independent bloc are against Obama when it comes to his job performance and whether he deserves a second term, but when he is matched against a real live Republican they are slightly in his corner," said Brown.

"No Republican presidential candidate has emerged in the eye of Ohio Republicans. To say the race is wide open in Ohio is an understatement," said Brown.

Following the top four GOP contenders are businessman Herman Cain with 6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 4 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty with 3 percent, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum with 2 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.

Ohio voters approve 49 - 30 percent of the job Sen. Brown is doing and say 47 - 33 percent he deserves to be re-elected.

"Sen. Sherrod Brown has very healthy leads over his potential challengers with 16 months to go before the election. He is just around the magic 50 percent threshold that many see as the dividing line for incumbents to ensure their re-election," said Brown.

From July 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,659 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 563 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS..................
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Perry                 8%     7%     9%     9%
Palin                15     14     15     14
Gingrich              4      6      2      3
Romney               16     13     20     12
Pawlenty              3      3      3      3
Bachmann             11     13      9      9
Santorum              2      4      -      3
Paul                  5      8      2      7
Huntsman              1      -      1      -
Cain                  6      7      6      9
McCotter              -      -      -      -
DK/NA                28     24     33     29
 
 
1a. (If voting for Perry q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Perry using second choice question) Q1 WITHOUT PERRY
                     REPUBLICANS..................
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Palin                15%    15%    15%    15%
Gingrich              5      7      2      4
Romney               19     15     23     14
Pawlenty              3      3      4      4
Bachmann             14     16     11     13
Santorum              2      4      -      3
Paul                  5      8      2      7
Huntsman              1      -      1      -
Cain                  7      7      6      9
McCotter              -      -      1      -
DK/NA                29     25     34     30
 
 
1b. (If voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question) Q1 WITHOUT PALIN
                     REPUBLICANS..................
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Perry                 8%     7%     9%     9%
Gingrich              6      7      4      5
Romney               19     16     23     17
Pawlenty              3      3      3      4
Bachmann             16     16     14     14
Santorum              3      5      -      3
Paul                  6      9      2      8
Huntsman              1      1      1      -
Cain                  7      8      7     10
McCotter              -      -      -      -
DK/NA                31     27     36     31
 
2. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS..................
                                          WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Mandel               35%    39%    30%    31%
Coughlin             12     13     11      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      4      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      2      5
DK/NA                46     38     56     55
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                47%     8%    88%    43%    43%    51%    28%
Perry                35     78      3     35     39     32     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      3      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      4      5      2      3
DK/NA                11      8      6     16     10     13     13
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                49%     9%    89%    45%    45%    53%    30%
Bachmann             36     77      4     35     39     33     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      4      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      5      5      2      4
DK/NA                 9      8      5     11      8     10     10
 
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                45%     4%    86%    40%    42%    49%    24%
Romney               41     85      5     41     43     38     58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      4      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      5      4      2      4
DK/NA                 9      7      6     11      8      9     10
 
 
6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                51%     9%    88%    51%    48%    54%    30%
Palin                35     76      5     32     37     33     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      4      3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      2      7      5      4      5
DK/NA                 6      6      4      6      7      5      7
 
 
7. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                49%     9%    88%    42%    46%    52%    34%
Mandel               34     79      3     32     38     30     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      3      3      1      1
DK/NA                14     10      8     22     12     15     16
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 21  May 19
                     2011    2011
 
Brown                49      45
Mandel               34      31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1
DK/NA                14      21
 
 
8. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                50%    11%    87%    45%    47%    53%    35%
Coughlin             32     76      2     28     35     28     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      4      4      1      1
DK/NA                15     12      9     22     13     17     18
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 21  May 19
                     2011    2011
 
Brown                50      44
Coughlin             32      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2
DK/NA                15      23
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              40%    59%    26%    40%    47%    34%    49%
Disapprove           21      7     33     19     21     21     14
DK/NA                39     35     41     40     32     45     37
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              40      38      30      34
Disapprove           21      21      25      16
DK/NA                39      41      45      51
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              49%    25%    76%    43%    48%    50%    38%
Disapprove           30     52      9     32     35     26     39
DK/NA                21     23     16     25     17     24     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE....... DIS....
                                                     High   Low     High
                     Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  May 06 Jul 07  Sep 15
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2009   2009    2009
 
Approve              49      49      43      45      52     41      48
Disapprove           30      30      27      25      24     29      33
DK/NA                21      21      30      30      24     30      20
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              46%     9%    84%    42%    42%    50%    28%
Disapprove           50     89     11     54     55     45     68
DK/NA                 4      2      5      5      3      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  Jun 30  Feb 06  Feb 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2010    2009    2010
 
Approve              46      49      47      49      45      67      44
Disapprove           50      45      48      46      49      16      52
DK/NA                 4       6       5       5       6      17       5
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              28%     6%    52%    22%    24%    32%    23%
Disapprove           65     90     40     71     70     61     70
DK/NA                 7      4      7      6      6      8      7
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              27%    56%     7%    26%    29%    24%    38%
Disapprove           67     37     90     68     66     69     54
DK/NA                 6      7      4      6      5      7      8
 
 
15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         46%     7%    86%    40%    42%    49%    26%
No/Does not          47     89      7     51     50     44     67
DK/NA                 7      4      7      9      8      7      7
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         46      47      45      48
No/Does not          47      47      46      44
DK/NA                 7       6       9       8
 
 
16. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    19%    78%    39%    46%    48%    34%
No/Does not          33     62      7     35     38     28     41
DK/NA                20     19     16     26     16     24     25
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         47      49      45      45
No/Does not          33      31      30      30
DK/NA                20      20      25      25
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              37%     6%    71%    30%    34%    40%    22%
Disapprove           58     93     23     64     62     55     74
DK/NA                 5      1      6      6      4      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 21  May 19  Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 6   Jul 21
                     2011    2011    2010    2010    2010    2009    2011
 
Approve              37      39      41      42      40      58      37
Disapprove           58      55      54      55      54      21      58
DK/NA                 5       5       5       3       6      21       5
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - foreign policy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              47%    17%    78%    44%    45%    49%    31%
Disapprove           47     78     16     51     50     44     62
DK/NA                 6      5      7      5      4      7      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?
                     Jul 21  May 19
                     2011    2011
 
Approve              47      50
Disapprove           47      44
DK/NA                 6       6