September 28, 2011 - Romney-Perry See-Saw Among Ohio Republicans, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Both Running Neck And Neck With Obama

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is top dog in the Ohio Republican presidential pack with 24 percent of GOP voters, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is nipping at his heels with 20 percent, and no other candidate over 9 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann runs eighth with 3 percent of the vote.

But Perry tops Romney 42 - 38 percent in a head-to-head matchup among Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Among all contenders, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gets 9 percent, followed by businessman Herman Cain at 7 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 6 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 4 percent each.

If Palin decides not to run, Romney gets 25 percent to Perry's 21 percent.

In 2012 general election matchups:
  • President Barack Obama gets 44 percent to Perry's 41 percent, too close to call;
  • President Obama gets 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, also too close to call.
Ohio voters disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the job Obama is doing, matching his lowest overall approval, and say 51 - 43 percent that the president does not deserve to be reelected.

"The Republican presidential race in Ohio at this point is shifting back and forth between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Perry's strength is among two large constituencies within the Republican coalition. In a two-man race, Perry defeats Romney 57 - 30 percent among Republicans who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. He leads Romney 48 - 33 percent among Republicans who are white, evangelical Christians."

"President Barack Obama's standing among all Ohio voters is back to its lowest ever," said Brown. "They give him a 53 - 42 percent disapproval rating on his job performance, and say by 51 - 43 percent say he does not deserve another term in the Oval Office. But when he is matched against Perry and Romney, those races are statistical ties."

There is a gender gap in the general election matchups:
  • Men back Perry over Obama 45 - 41 percent, while women go Democratic 46 - 37 percent;
  • Men back Romney over Obama 47 - 41 percent, as women back the president 46 - 38 percent.
Among independent voters, a key voting group, Obama gets 38 percent to Perry's 35 percent. He splits these voters 39 - 39 percent with Romney.

Independent voters disapprove 56 - 38 percent of Obama's job performance, as do Republicans 91 - 7 percent. Democrats approve 77 - 19 percent. Men disapprove 58 - 39 percent, while women disapprove by a narrow 49 - 45 percent.

In a July 21 Quinnipiac University survey of Ohio voters, Obama's disapproval was 50 - 46 percent and voters split 46 - 47 percent on whether he deserves four more years.

In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, State Treasurer Josh Mandel leads State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 33 - 12 percent in the battle for the Republican nomination, but both men trail by double digits against Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown tops Coughlin 53 - 32 percent and leads Mandel 49 - 36 percent.

Ohio voters approve of the job Brown is doing 52 - 31 percent and say 50 - 34 percent they feel that he deserves another term in office.

Ohio voters say 64 - 29 percent that Perry's description of Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme" is unfair, although Republicans are split 44 - 45 percent.

Voters say 39 - 30 percent that Perry is more interested in ending Social Security than fixing it, but Republicans say 53 - 16 percent Perry wants to fix it. Among independent voters, 32 percent say he wants to fix Social Security while 36 percent say he wants to end it.

From September 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,301 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 423 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republicans)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. 
                                          PrtOf  WtBrnAg 
                     Tot    Men    Wom    TeaPty Evnglcl
 
Perry                20%    20%    19%    25%    22% 
Palin                 9      8      9     13     13 
Gingrich              4      2      6      5      6 
Romney               24     25     23     18     18 
Bachmann              3      4      1      3      2 
Santorum              4      3      5      8      2 
Paul                  6      8      4      5      4 
Huntsman              1      2      1      2      1 
Cain                  7     10      3     11      5 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      -      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -      1 
DK/NA                21     15     26     10     26
 
TREND: (If Registered Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain for whom would you vote? (na=not asked in survey reported)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS 
                     Sep 28  Jul 21 
                     2011    2011
 
Perry                20       8 
Palin                 9      15 
Gingrich              4       4 
Romney               24      16 
Bachmann              3      11 
Santorum              4       2 
Paul                  6       5 
Huntsman              1       1 
Cain                  7       6 
Pawlenty             na       3 
McCotter             na       - 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      na 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      na 
DK/NA                21      28
 
 
1a. (If voting for Palin q1)Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. 
                     Q1 WITHOUT PALIN................... 
                                          PrtOf  WtBrnAg 
                     Tot    Men    Wom    TeaPty Evnglcl
 
Perry                21%    23%    20%    27%    25% 
Gingrich              6      4      8      7      8 
Romney               25     25     25     22     20 
Bachmann              4      5      3      6      4 
Santorum              4      3      5      8      2 
Paul                  6      9      4      6      5 
Huntsman              2      3      1      2      2 
Cain                  7     10      3     12      6 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      -      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -      1 
DK/NA                22     16     28     10     26
 
TREND: (If voting for Palin q1)Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS 
                     Q1 WITHOUT PALIN 
                     Sep 28  Jul 21 
                     2011    2011
 
Perry                21       8 
Gingrich              6       6 
Romney               25      19 
Bachmann              4      16 
Santorum              4       3 
Paul                  6       6 
Huntsman              2       1 
Cain                  7       7 
Pawlenty             na       3 
McCotter             na       - 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      na 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      na 
DK/NA                22      31
 
 
2. (If Registered Republican)Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. 
                                          PrtOf  WtBrnAg 
                     Tot    Men    Wom    TeaPty Evnglcl
 
Perry                42%    46%    37%    57%    48% 
Romney               38     40     36     30     33 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -      1 
DK/NA                17     11     24     11     17
 
 
3. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............. 
                                          PrtOf  WtBrnAg 
                     Tot    Men    Wom    TeaPty Evnglcl
 
Mandel               33%    40%    25%    36%    32% 
Coughlin             12     13     11     12     14 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      -      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      -      1 
DK/NA                53     43     62     51     53
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Mandel and Kevin Coughlin for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS 
                     Sep 28  Jul 21 
                     2011    2011
 
Mandel               33      35 
Coughlin             12      12 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       5 
DK/NA                53      46
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                44%     4%    84%    38%    41%    46%    24% 
Perry                41     91      6     35     45     37     60 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      5      3      2      2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      6      3      4      3 
DK/NA                10      4      6     16      8     11     11
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
Obama                46%    47%    39%    46%    36%    55% 
Perry                41     38     40     40     49     32 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      4      4      1      3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      3      1      4      3 
DK/NA                 9      9     14     10      9      8
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21 
                     2011    2011
 
Obama                44      47 
Perry                41      35 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3 
DK/NA                10      11
 
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Obama                44%     3%    83%    39%    41%    46%    25% 
Romney               42     93      7     39     47     38     60 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      2      2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      5      3      3      3 
DK/NA                 9      3      6     14      7     11     10
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Obama                46%    49%    35%    45%    38%    53% 
Romney               44     38     42     42     50     36 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      5      4      -      2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      5      3      1      2      3 
DK/NA                 8      8     16      8     10      7
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21 
                     2011    2011
 
Obama                44      45 
Romney               42      41 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3 
DK/NA                 9       9
 
 
6. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
More                 31%    51%    23%    24%    34%    28%    32% 
Less                 23     15     21     31     20     26     23 
About the same       46     33     56     44     46     46     45 
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
More                 34%    31%    32%    28%    25%    29% 
Less                 21     21     24     19     29     25 
About the same       44     47     42     53     45     45 
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      1      -
 
 
7. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                49%     8%    88%    43%    49%    49%    33% 
Mandel               36     81      4     33     40     32     50 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      1      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      3      1      2      1 
DK/NA                13     10      7     18      9     16     16
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brown                46%    54%    50%    46%    39%    62% 
Mandel               37     34     36     37     38     26 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      3      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      4      2 
DK/NA                15      9     13     15     15      9
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Josh Mandel the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19 
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Brown                49      49      45 
Mandel               36      34      31 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2       1 
DK/NA                13      14      21
 
 
8. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brown                53%     9%    90%    50%    50%    55%    38% 
Coughlin             32     78      2     29     36     29     45 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      3      1      3      2 
DK/NA                13     12      8     16     12     13     15
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brown                51%    58%    59%    46%    48%    63% 
Coughlin             33     29     28     38     33     27 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      1      4      1 
DK/NA                14     11     12     14     15      8
 
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat, and Kevin Coughlin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19 
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Brown                53      50      44 
Coughlin             32      32      28 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3       2 
DK/NA                13      15      23
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              52%    26%    77%    49%    48%    55%    39% 
Disapprove           31     58      9     30     38     24     36 
DK/NA                18     16     14     21     14     21     25
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              53%    56%    54%    41%    52%    65% 
Disapprove           31     27     33     38     31     23 
DK/NA                16     18     13     21     18     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009)
                                                             APPROVE...... 
                                                             High    Low 
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  Sep 28  Jul 07 
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2009
 
Approve              52      49      49      43      45      52      41 
Disapprove           31      30      30      27      25      31      29 
DK/NA                18      21      21      30      30      18      30
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              42%     7%    77%    38%    39%    45%    30% 
Disapprove           53     91     19     56     58     49     68 
DK/NA                 4      1      5      6      3      6      2
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
Approve              48%    44%    32%    45%    41%    48% 
Disapprove           50     51     64     50     54     48 
DK/NA                 2      5      5      5      5      5
 
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE....... 
                                                             High    Low 
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20  Feb 06  Sep 28 
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2009    2011
 
Approve              42      46      49      47      49      67      42 
Disapprove           53      50      45      48      46      16      53 
DK/NA                 4       4       6       5       5      17       4
 
 
13. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         43%     4%    82%    37%    40%    46%    27% 
No/Does not          51     95     15     53     55     48     69 
DK/NA                 6      1      3     10      5      6      4
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    47%    33%    47%    37%    50% 
No/Does not          49     47     62     46     55     44 
DK/NA                 5      6      5      7      8      6
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20 
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         43      46      47      45      48 
No/Does not          51      47      47      46      44 
DK/NA                 6       7       6       9       8
 
 
14. Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes/Deserves         50%    15%    84%    46%    48%    52%    35% 
No/Does not          34     69      5     33     39     28     41 
DK/NA                16     16     11     20     13     20     24
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes/Deserves         51%    55%    50%    40%    44%    61% 
No/Does not          33     30     33     40     40     25 
DK/NA                16     15     17     20     16     14
 
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20 
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         50      47      49      45      45 
No/Does not          34      33      31      30      30 
DK/NA                16      20      20      25      25
 
 
35. Under the current Social Security system employers and employees pay Social Security taxes on workers incomes only up to the first $106,800 they earn. Do you support or oppose raising this $106,800 income cap to help bring more money into the Social Security system?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              59%    49%    65%    62%    60%    59%    50% 
Oppose               31     42     28     27     34     29     36 
DK/NA                 9      9      7     11      6     12     13
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              56%    60%    65%    62%    57%    61% 
Oppose               36     32     25     26     31     28 
DK/NA                 8      8     10     12     12     12
 
 
36. Some people say that raising the amount of income subject to Social Security taxes will lead employers to do less hiring. Do you agree or disagree?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Agree                32%    46%    21%    32%    32%    33%    36% 
Disagree             61     47     72     61     64     58     54 
DK/NA                 7      7      7      7      4      9      9
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Agree                34%    32%    29%    33%    29%    31% 
Disagree             60     62     64     61     60     65 
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6     11      4
 
 
37. Benefits for today's retirees come from taxes paid by today's workers. When today's workers retire, their benefits will be paid by people working at the time. Some have said this system is a "Ponzi scheme." Do you think that is fair or unfair to describe the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 29%    44%    15%    28%    37%    21%    27% 
Unfair               64     45     82     62     59     69     61 
DK/NA                 7     11      3     10      5     10     12
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fair                 29%    28%    26%    28%    29%    22% 
Unfair               65     65     66     63     62     72 
DK/NA                 6      7      8      9      9      6
 
 
38. Based on what you've heard or read, do you think Rick Perry wants to: Fix Social Security or End Social Security?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fix Social Security  30%    53%    10%    32%    38%    22%    38% 
End Social Security  39     16     60     36     40     38     21 
DK/NA                31     30     31     32     22     39     41
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fix Social Security  30%    25%    33%    33%    34%    26% 
End Social Security  37     41     38     41     37     42 
DK/NA                32     34     29     26     29     32
 
 
39. If a presidential candidate said that in order to preserve the Social Security system they would not touch benefits for current retirees or workers soon to retire, but would reduce benefits for younger workers when they retire, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
More likely          22%    34%    13%    22%    27%    18%    19% 
Less likely          43     27     54     44     36     48     44 
No difference        29     29     30     30     33     27     28 
DK/NA                 6     11      4      4      4      8      8
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
More likely          24%    19%    21%    29%    22%    15% 
Less likely          45     43     51     35     38     54 
No difference        26     31     22     31     37     25 
DK/NA                 5      8      7      5      3      6
 
 
40. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  16%    38%     2%    15%    19%    14%    25% 
No                   80     60     94     83     78     82     71 
DK/NA                 4      2      4      2      4      4      4
 
                                                        Union 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  17%    14%    19%    13%    22%    13% 
No                   81     81     78     84     73     85 
DK/NA                 2      4      3      4      5      2
 
 

Demographic Summary