October 25, 2011 - Opposition To Ohio's SB 5 Grows, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women, Union Members Push Kasich Deeper In Hole

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Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.

Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

"With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law."

While Republicans oppose repeal 59 - 32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77 - 13 percent and independent voters who agree 56 - 32 percent. Support for repeal is strong across gender, racial, income and education groups:
  • Men, 54 - 38 percent, and women, 58 - 27 percent;
  • Those without college degrees, 56 - 30 percent, and those with degrees, 57 - 37 percent;
  • Whites, 54 - 35 percent, and blacks, 76 - 15 percent;
  • Voters making over $100,000, 52 - 42 percent, those who earn less, 59 - 30 percent;
  • Voters in union households, 70 - 24 percent, non-union households, 52 - 35 percent.
"Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown.

"Although the parts of the law that require public workers to contribute to their retirement and health care costs are popular with voters, the strong opposition to curtailing collective bargaining and seniority rights apparently is what seems to be carrying the day for the law's opponents. In the end, voters disagree 57 - 34 percent with Kasich's argument that the limits on union power are needed to balance the budget," Brown added.

Ohio voter opinions on public employee issues are:
  • Oppose 61 - 32 percent a ban on public employee strikes;
  • Oppose 56 - 36 percent limits on public employee unions from bargaining over health care;
  • Support 49 - 40 percent merit-based pay increases rather than seniority-base increases;
  • Oppose 51 - 42 eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs;
  • Support 60 - 33 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums;
  • Support 57 - 34 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions.
Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71 - 23 percent, not hugely different than the 75 - 14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance. The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54 - 30 percent. Men disapprove 50 - 41 percent, while women give him a 54 - 31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51 - 35 percent last month.

"The good news, if there is good news in this survey, for Gov. Kasich is that he has another three years until he faces re-election, which gives him a lot more time to change voter attitudes than he has about SB 5," said Brown.

At least one Republican in Ohio, however, gets a thumbs up from voters. Sen. Rob Portman has a 38 - 26 percent approval rating.

From October 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              36%    71%    14%    30%    41%    31%    23%    40%
Disapprove           52     23     75     54     50     54     67     47
DK/NA                12      7     10     16     10     15     10     13
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Approve              38%    18%    32%    37%    36%    44%
Disapprove           51     65     47     52     55     46
DK/NA                11     16     21     11      9     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Approve              35%    37%    34%    41%
Disapprove           51     54     53     53
DK/NA                14      9     13      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              36      40      35      38      30      30
Disapprove           52      49      50      49      46      22
DK/NA                12      11      15      13      23      48
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              38%    58%    25%    35%    40%    36%    33%    39%
Disapprove           26     10     39     25     29     23     33     24
DK/NA                36     32     36     40     31     41     35     37
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Approve              39%    23%    37%    34%    40%    42%
Disapprove           24     46     27     28     25     22
DK/NA                37     32     35     38     35     36
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Approve              36%    42%    37%    45%
Disapprove           27     25     28     25
DK/NA                37     34     35     30
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              38      41      40      38      30      34
Disapprove           26      23      21      21      25      16
DK/NA                36      35      39      41      45      51
 
 
16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very satisfied        3%     7%     1%     2%     4%     2%     2%     3%
Smwht satisfied      26     46     17     21     28     23     20     27
Smwht dissatisfied   34     27     36     36     33     35     31     35
Very dissatisfied    37     19     47     40     34     39     46     34
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     2%     1%     2%     4%     3%
Smwht satisfied      26     19     28     21     27     28
Smwht dissatisfied   33     38     38     37     30     35
Very dissatisfied    36     41     32     39     38     33
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Very satisfied        3%     2%     3%     4%
Smwht satisfied      25     27     25     33
Smwht dissatisfied   32     38     35     32
Very dissatisfied    39     32     37     30
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 29% Mar 2011)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Mar 21  Oct 25  
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2007    2011*    
                                                                             
Very satisfied        3       3       3       3       3       5       3      
Smwht satisfied      26      31      31      30      26      49      26      
Smwht dissatisfied   34      32      32      32      34      28      34      
Very dissatisfied    37      32      32      35      36      16      37      
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1      
 
 
17. As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              33%    58%    15%    32%    39%    28%    25%    35%
Oppose               56     33     76     55     52     59     68     52
DK/NA                11      9      9     12      9     13      7     13
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Support              35%    14%    26%    33%    36%    38%
Oppose               54     75     57     57     55     51
DK/NA                11     11     17     10      9     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Support              31%    37%    29%    45%
Oppose               55     58     59     51
DK/NA                14      5     12      4
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              33      40      34      38      41
Oppose               56      50      52      50      48
DK/NA                11      11      14      12      10
 
 
18. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Kept                 32%    59%    13%    32%    38%    27%    24%    35%
Repealed             57     32     77     56     54     58     70     52
DK/NA                11      9      9     12      7     15      7     13
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Kept                 35%    15%    30%    29%    35%    36%
Repealed             54     76     55     61     55     51
DK/NA                11     10     15     10     10     13
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Kept                 30%    37%    30%    42%
Repealed             56     57     59     52
DK/NA                14      5     11      5
 
 
TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Kept                 32      38      32      36
Repealed             57      51      56      54
DK/NA                11      11      12      10
 
 
19. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  34%    59%    18%    31%    38%    30%    21%    38%
No                   57     32     75     59     56     58     73     52
DK/NA                 9      9      7     10      6     13      6     11
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  36%    18%    31%    33%    35%    37%
No                   55     70     56     59     56     52
DK/NA                 9     12     13      8      9     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Yes                  33%    36%    32%    43%
No                   56     58     58     53
DK/NA                11      5      9      3
 
TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes                  34      41      38      38      37
No                   57      50      50      52      55
DK/NA                 9       9      11      10       8
 
 
20. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              32%    50%    16%    36%    37%    29%    29%    33%
Oppose               61     43     79     58     59     63     64     60
DK/NA                 7      7      6      6      4      9      7      6
 
TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              32      36      36      35      35
Oppose               61      58      56      58      58
DK/NA                 7       5       8       7       7
 
 
21. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              60%    81%    46%    59%    61%    58%    48%    64%
Oppose               33     14     49     32     33     34     47     29
DK/NA                 7      5      5     10      6      8      5      8
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              60      59      60      59      66
Oppose               33      35      33      34      27
DK/NA                 7       7       7       7       8
 
 
22. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              36%    55%    23%    36%    40%    33%    30%    39%
Oppose               56     34     73     56     55     57     65     53
DK/NA                 7     11      4      8      5     10      5      9
 
TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*May 2011 "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees")
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              36      39      36      38
Oppose               56      54      58      54
DK/NA                 7       7       6       8
 
 
23. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              57%    73%    47%    55%    65%    50%    50%    60%
Oppose               34     20     46     34     28     39     39     32
DK/NA                 9      7      7     11      7     10     10      8
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Support              57      56      58      58
Oppose               34      33      33      34
DK/NA                 9      11       9       9
 
 
24. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              49%    65%    40%    48%    52%    47%    43%    51%
Oppose               40     26     49     42     40     40     48     37
DK/NA                11      9     11     10      8     13      8     11
 
TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Support              49      60      56      57
Oppose               40      31      35      35
DK/NA                11       8       9       7
 
 
25. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample)
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              42%    57%    25%    49%    49%    36%    29%    46%
Oppose               51     34     66     47     46     55     63     47
DK/NA                 7      9      8      4      5      9      7      7
 
 
 
TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Support              42      41      45      45
Oppose               51      53      49      50
DK/NA                 7       6       6       5
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              34%    67%    12%    30%    41%    27%    23%    37%
Disapprove           55     24     78     58     51     59     70     50
DK/NA                11      8     10     12      8     14      7     12
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Approve              37%    12%    29%    35%    35%    41%
Disapprove           52     74     56     54     56     47
DK/NA                11     14     15     12      9     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Approve              32%    38%    32%    43%
Disapprove           56     54     57     51
DK/NA                12      9     11      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              34      35      32      35      31
Disapprove           55      53      54      53      51
DK/NA                11      12      14      12      18
 
 
27. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Fair                 32%    62%    12%    28%    38%    26%    22%    35%
Unfair               52     24     75     51     48     55     68     47
DK/NA                16     14     13     21     13     19     10     18
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 34%     9%    25%    33%    34%    34%
Unfair               48     79     51     54     52     47
DK/NA                17     12     24     13     14     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Fair                 28%    41%    30%    45%
Unfair               54     48     54     46
DK/NA                18     11     16      9
 
TREND: Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Fair                 32      36      32
Unfair               52      49      50
DK/NA                16      15      18
 
 
28. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                                                               UNION HSHLD
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Too far              36%    16%    56%    36%    34%    39%    47%    33%
Not far enough       22     31     12     23     25     19     17     24
About right          28     41     20     25     32     24     23     29
DK/NA                14     11     12     17      9     19     13     15
 
                                   AGE IN YEARS.....    WhtBrnAgn
                     White  Black  18-34  35-54  55+    Evnglcl
 
Too far              34%    57%    40%    35%    35%    30%
Not far enough       22     18     23     27     18     26
About right          29     15     21     23     34     31
DK/NA                15     11     16     14     13     13
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     No     Yes    <100K  >100K
 
Too far              35%    40%    37%    34%
Not far enough       22     22     21     30
About right          27     28     28     27
DK/NA                16     11     14      9
 
TREND: What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                     Oct 25  Sep 27  Jul 20
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Too far              36      35      34
Not far enough       22      26      25
About right          28      29      30
DK/NA                14      11      11
 
 

Demographic Summary