February 15, 2012 - Santorum On Top In Ohio GOP Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Portman Does Not Help GOP Ticket Against Obama

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Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum shoots to the top among Ohio likely Republican primary voters with 36 percent, followed by 29 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich runs third with 20 percent, while Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul gets 9 percent.

Three weeks before the March 6 primary, 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they might change their mind. This first survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered Republicans.

President Barack Obama would get 46 percent of Ohio registered voters, to Romney's 44 percent if the November election were today, similar to the 44 - 42 percent result in a January 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama tops Santorum 47 - 41 percent and beats Gingrich 50 - 38 percent in general election matchups.

Picking Ohio Sen. Rob Portman as Romney's running mate would not help the GOP ticket carry Ohio's crucial electoral votes in November as the Democratic ticket pulls slightly ahead 47 - 43 percent.

In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel, 48 - 35 percent. Voters approve 47 - 34 percent of the job Brown is doing and say 46 - 34 percent that he deserves a second term in the Senate.

"Sen. Rick Santorum has zoomed to the front of the line among likely voters in Ohio's March 6 Republican presidential primary," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He appears to be riding the momentum from his victories last week in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri."

"Unclear is whether that momentum fizzles as happened to Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa, and as happened to Gov. Mitt Romney in South Carolina after winning New Hampshire and Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida after taking South Carolina," Brown added.

"For the first time, numerically more voters in Ohio view Romney unfavorably than favorably. His pattern in the earlier primary states has been to use his money advantage to run a large number of negative ads on his biggest challenger. But doing so now risks further increasing Romney's own unfavorables as a side effect of throwing the mud himself. Yet, Romney may feel the need to raise questions about the lesser-known Santorum in the eyes of GOP voters."

Romney gets a slightly negative 37 - 40 percent favorability rating from all Ohio registered voters, with a 61 - 25 percent positive from likely Republican primary voters. Santorum, whose overall favorability was 25 - 25 percent in January, is now 35 - 22 percent favorable among all voters and 62 - 7 percent favorable among likely Republican primary voters.

In the tight general election matchup between Obama and Romney, the president's margin is built upon his 45 - 41 percent edge among independent voters. Obama carries Democrats 88 - 6 percent, as Romney takes Republicans 87 - 6 percent. Men back Romney 49 - 42 percent, while women back Obama 49 - 39 percent.

In order to assess Portman's potential usefulness to the GOP ticket in Ohio, following the question about the Obama-Romney matchup, Quinnipiac asked about voters' preference between an Obama-Joe Biden ticket and a Romney-Portman team. Given that choice, voters opted for the Democratic team 47 - 43 percent.

"At least in this survey, the inclusion of Rob Portman as vice president does not appear to help the GOP ticket," said Brown.

Ohio voters split 47 - 48 percent on whether Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office and give him a split 47 - 48 percent job approval, his best score in the past year.

From February 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,421 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 553 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             20%    21%    18%    22%    15%    21%    18%    21%    20%
Romney               29     25     32     24     41     26     36     21     32
Santorum             36     36     37     43     25     41     30     44     32
Paul                  9     12      6      7     13      6     10     12      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      7      4      7      5      6      2      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             16%    22%    16%    22%    23%    28%    20%    15%    22%
Romney               33     26     27     25     35     27     21     27     40
Santorum             36     36     35     42     29     35     50     36     28
Paul                  8     10     15      7      4      5      6     16      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 6      6      7      4      9      6      3      6      3
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1.....
                            CANDIDATE CHOICE
                     Tot    NG     MR     RS
 
Mind made up         48%    48%    39%    54%
Might change         50     51     58     44
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%     7%    91%    51%    45%    54%    43%    95%
Gingrich             38     83      3     33     45     32     43      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1      2      2      2      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      1      4      4      3      4      -
DK/NA                 6      3      5     10      4      8      7      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                52%    49%    50%    51%    47%    57%    44%    51%    44%
Gingrich             39     38     39     37     41     28     42     41     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      2      3      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      4      3      4      4      4      3      2
DK/NA                 4      7      6      6      6      8     10      3      4
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                48%    41%    36%    41%    26%    47%    42%    56%
Gingrich             42     44     51     46     60     40     46     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      1      3      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      5      3      6      3      5      3
DK/NA                 4      8      6      9      5      7      5      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS..........
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10
                     2012    2012    2011    2011
                                     
Obama                50      52      42      49
Gingrich             38      38      43      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       4       4
DK/NA                 6       5       7       7
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                47%     7%    88%    47%    43%    50%    40%    93%
Santorum             41     86      5     35     46     37     47      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      2      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      4      4      2      3      -
DK/NA                 7      4      6     11      5      9      8      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                51%    46%    50%    48%    41%    54%    42%    47%    45%
Santorum             41     41     37     41     48     33     45     42     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      4      3      2      4      3      2      2
DK/NA                 5      8      7      7      8      8     10      7      3
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                47%    37%    32%    38%    24%    43%    39%    55%
Santorum             45     47     56     47     65     43     50     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      4      2      5      2      4      3
DK/NA                 5      9      7     12      5     10      6      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 18
                     2012    2012
                             
Obama                47      48
Santorum             41      37 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3 
DK/NA                 7       9
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Ron Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                46%     8%    88%    44%    42%    51%    40%    93%
Paul                 40     77      5     40     47     34     45      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      7      1      4      5      4      5      -
DK/NA                 7      6      5      9      5      9      8      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                51%    45%    46%    49%    43%    52%    44%    46%    43%
Paul                 37     42     43     37     43     36     40     43     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      3      2      3      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3      4      6      3      4      2      5
DK/NA                 7      7      7      7      6      6     10      7      3
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                47%    37%    32%    38%    23%    44%    37%    53%
Paul                 40     48     53     45     61     41     49     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      3      2      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      6      4      7      4      7      5
DK/NA                 7      8      7     12      7      9      4      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Ron Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 18
                     2012    2012
                                
Obama                46      48
Paul                 40      39 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4 
DK/NA                 7       6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                46%     6%    88%    45%    42%    49%    40%    91%
Romney               44     87      6     41     49     39     49      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      -      2      3      2      3      -
DK/NA                 7      3      6     11      4      9      7      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                48%    45%    48%    47%    42%    55%    41%    45%    41%
Romney               44     43     41     42     49     35     45     46     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      4      2      2      4      2      2      2
DK/NA                 5      8      7      7      5      6     12      6      3
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                44%    37%    32%    36%    23%    42%    38%    52%
Romney               48     50     59     51     69     46     51     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      2      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      1      3      2      3      1
DK/NA                 5      8      5     11      4      9      6     10
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             OBAMA.........
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Oct 26  Feb 15  Dec 08
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2012    2011  
                                                                           
Obama                46      44      42      45      45      46      42    
Romney               44      42      43      42      41      44      43    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3       4       3       2       1       4    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       4       3       3       3       4    
DK/NA                 7       8       8       7       9       7       8    
 
 
6. Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Rob Portman for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Democratic ticket    47%     6%    90%    46%    43%    50%    41%    89%
Republican ticket    43     88      5     38     48     38     48      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      3      4      2      3      -
DK/NA                 7      3      5     11      5      9      7     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Democratic ticket    48%    46%    47%    49%    42%    55%    42%    47%    41%
Republican ticket    44     42     41     41     47     34     45     45     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      -      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      4      2      2      3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 5      8      6      7      7      7      9      5      3
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Democratic ticket    44%    39%    32%    38%    24%    43%    37%    54%
Republican ticket    48     49     59     49     67     46     52     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      3      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                 5      8      6      9      6      7      6      8
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            61%    63%    60%    63%    61%    60%    66%    60%    63%
Unfavorable          25     27     22     25     22     27     18     31     22
Hvn't hrd enough     12     10     15     10     14     11     13      8     13
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      2      3      1      2
 
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            37%    64%    17%    34%    42%    32%    40%    15%
Unfavorable          40     20     58     41     42     38     38     50
Hvn't hrd enough     21     13     24     23     15     27     20     34
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      1      3      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Dec 05  Feb 15  Jan 30
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2007    2012    2007
                                                                     
Favorable            37      36      32      36      24      37       9
Unfavorable          40      34      28      31      23      40      10
Hvn't hrd enough     21      26      38      32      51      21      80
REFUSED               2       4       2       2       3       2       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    55%    42%    60%    29%    52%    49%    58%    43%
Unfavorable          34     33     35     26     49     31     36     26     38
Hvn't hrd enough     16     12     20     12     20     17     12     14     17
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      1      3      2      2
 
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            25%    53%     5%    21%    31%    20%    27%    10%
Unfavorable          55     28     76     61     55     55     53     64
Hvn't hrd enough     18     16     17     16     12     23     17     26
REFUSED               2      3      1      2      2      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Jan 30
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2007
                                     
Favorable            25      26      32      28      24
Unfavorable          55      51      38      44      50
Hvn't hrd enough     18      20      29      26      24
REFUSED               2       3       1       2       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            62%    65%    58%    72%    46%    69%    56%    76%    56%
Unfavorable           7      8      6      4     12      3      8      4      9
Hvn't hrd enough     31     27     36     24     42     27     36     20     35
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            35%    62%    14%    31%    39%    31%    38%    12%
Unfavorable          22      5     40     23     26     20     21     26
Hvn't hrd enough     42     33     45     45     34     49     39     61
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 18
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            35      25
Unfavorable          22      25 
Hvn't hrd enough     42      48 
REFUSED               1       2 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            36%    42%    29%    36%    38%    35%    36%    45%    32%
Unfavorable          33     34     31     38     22     37     32     33     34
Hvn't hrd enough     29     21     37     22     39     25     28     20     31
REFUSED               3      3      4      4      1      3      4      2      4
 
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            31%    36%    22%    35%    40%    24%    33%    12%
Unfavorable          31     33     39     25     32     31     31     35
Hvn't hrd enough     36     28     38     39     26     44     33     54
REFUSED               2      3      1      2      2      2      3      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 18
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            31      28
Unfavorable          31      33 
Hvn't hrd enough     36      36 
REFUSED               2       2 
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            49%     8%    90%    49%    43%    54%    42%    95%
Unfavorable          46     88      9     43     53     41     53      1
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      1      4      2      3      2      3
REFUSED               3      2      1      3      2      3      3      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            52%    48%    49%    52%    45%    58%    43%    48%    44%
Unfavorable          45     47     44     45     52     35     52     48     54
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      3      2      2      5      3      1      -
REFUSED               1      3      4      1      2      2      2      2      2
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Favorable            48%    40%    33%    43%    25%    46%    40%    56%
Unfavorable          48     55     62     50     71     48     58     39
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      1      5      1      3      1      1
REFUSED               1      4      3      2      2      3      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  May 22  Feb 15  Jan 30
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2008    2012    2007
                                                                     
Favorable            49      48      42      47      44      49      35
Unfavorable          46      47      52      46      38      46      12
Hvn't hrd enough      2       2       3       4      16       2      52
REFUSED               3       2       3       2       3       3       1
 
 
12. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 29%    40%    31%    20%    34%    24%    27%    41%
Less                 22     18     18     27     17     26     23     13
About the same       49     42     52     52     48     50     49     46
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
 
TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.........................
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Oct 26  Sep 28
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
                                     
More                 29      29      26      25      25      31
Less                 22      22      22      23      23      23
About the same       49      49      51      51      51      46
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       -
 
 
13. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Brown                48%    11%    88%    48%    45%    51%    44%    79%
Mandel               35     79      3     25     42     29     40      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      4      3      3      2      5
DK/NA                14      8      8     23      9     18     14     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Brown                50%    48%    47%    50%    49%    54%    44%    48%    47%
Mandel               38     33     32     36     38     27     40     34     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      4      3      1      3      1      3      -
DK/NA                11     15     17     10     12     16     15     15      8
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Brown                47%    52%    51%    32%    46%    48%
Mandel               35     35     29     44     36     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3      4      2      1
DK/NA                14     10     16     18     16     18
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.........................
                     Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Sep 28  Jul 21  May 19
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011
                             
Brown                48      47      49      49      49      45
Mandel               35      32      34      36      34      31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2       2       1       2       1
DK/NA                14      18      14      13      14      21
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            41%    15%    72%    39%    41%    41%    38%    58%
Unfavorable          26     52      5     25     31     23     30      5
Hvn't hrd enough     31     32     21     35     27     33     30     35
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 19
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            41      42
Unfavorable          26      26 
Hvn't hrd enough     31      30 
REFUSED               2       2 
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            16%    35%     4%    13%    21%    13%    18%     4%
Unfavorable          12      2     27      9     14     10     11     14
Hvn't hrd enough     71     63     69     76     65     76     69     82
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 19
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            16      17
Unfavorable          12      13 
Hvn't hrd enough     71      69 
REFUSED               1       1 
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              47%    23%    75%    45%    46%    48%    45%    60%
Disapprove           34     59      9     33     38     30     37     16
DK/NA                19     19     15     22     16     21     18     24
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Sep 28  Jul 21  Sep 28  Jul 07
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011*   2009
                             
Approve              47      47      50      52      49      52      41
Disapprove           34      34      30      31      30      31      29
DK/NA                19      19      20      18      21      18      30
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              47%     8%    85%    47%    41%    51%    41%    85%
Disapprove           48     89     12     46     56     42     54      5
DK/NA                 5      3      3      7      3      7      5     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Oct 26  Feb 06  Dec 08  
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2009    2011    
                                                                             
Approve              47      44      41      44      43      67      41      
Disapprove           48      51      55      50      51      16      55      
DK/NA                 5       5       4       6       6      17       4 
 
 
22. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         47%     7%    87%    46%    42%    51%    40%    94%
No/Does not          48     90      7     47     54     42     54      2
DK/NA                 5      2      5      7      4      6      6      5
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10  Oct 26  Jan 20  Dec 08  
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    
                                                                             
Yes/Deserves         47      45      42      46      44      48      42      
No/Does not          48      51      53      48      49      44      53      
DK/NA                 5       5       5       6       7       8       5
 
 
23. Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    16%    76%    47%    45%    47%    42%    68%
No/Does not          34     65      8     30     40     29     38     15
DK/NA                20     20     16     23     15     24     20     18
 
TREND: Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election", *Low 45% also Jan 2011)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.................................
                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Sep 28  Jul 21  Sep 28  Mar 24
                     2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011* 
                                                                           
Yes/Deserves         46      48      48      50      47      50      45    
No/Does not          34      33      31      34      33      34      30    
DK/NA                20      19      20      16      20      16      25    
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Mitt Romney?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                45%     6%    85%    43%    42%    47%    39%    86%
Romney               46     87      9     44     51     41     51      9
DK/NA                 9      7      6     12      7     12     10      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                46%    45%    45%    48%    41%    54%    38%    46%    42%
Romney               46     45     43     45     52     37     48     49     53
DK/NA                 8     10     12      7      8      9     14      6      5
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                42%    37%    31%    39%    23%    42%    38%    54%
Romney               50     52     60     52     69     49     57     37
DK/NA                 8     11      9     10      8      9      6      9
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS.........
                     Feb 15  Jan 18  Dec 08  Nov 10
                     2012    2012    2011    2011
                                     
Obama                45      42      39      43
Romney               46      48      47      45
DK/NA                 9      10      13      12
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Newt Gingrich?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                49%     8%    89%    50%    45%    52%    43%    90%
Gingrich             42     84      5     38     48     36     47      4
DK/NA                 9      7      7     13      7     12     10      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                52%    48%    48%    51%    47%    56%    42%    52%    41%
Gingrich             41     42     41     41     45     32     44     44     52
DK/NA                 7     11     11      8      8     12     14      5      6
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                48%    40%    36%    41%    25%    47%    42%    57%
Gingrich             45     48     55     48     67     43     50     34
DK/NA                 7     12      9     11      8     10      8     10
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy Barack Obama or Newt Gingrich?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS..
                     Feb 15  Dec 08  Nov 10
                     2012    2011    2011
                             
Obama                49      41      49
Gingrich             42      48      39
DK/NA                 9      11      11
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Rick Santorum? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
                                                                      *
Obama                45%     6%    84%    43%    45%    46%    39%    84%
Santorum             43     86      6     41     46     40     49      4
DK/NA                12      8     10     16      9     14     12     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Obama                47%    45%    50%    42%    40%    49%    40%    47%    44%
Santorum             42     43     37     47     52     39     42     44     48
DK/NA                11     12     13     11      8     11     18      9      7
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Obama                43%    37%    33%    37%    25%    41%    40%    50%
Santorum             45     50     58     47     67     45     49     40
DK/NA                11     13      9     16      8     13     12     10
 
TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Rick Santorum?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  Jan 18
                     2012    2012
                             
Obama                45      46
Santorum             43      39 
DK/NA                12      14 
 
 
27. Do you think - Mitt Romney is too conservative, not conservative enough, or about right?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Too conservative     20%     4%    38%    19%    20%    21%    19%    28%
Not con enough       28     48     14     23     35     22     29     20
About right          37     41     30     41     36     38     38     25
DK/NA                15      6     18     17     10     18     13     27
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Too conservative     25%    18%    22%    22%    14%    23%    16%    21%    22%
Not con enough       27     29     26     31     29     25     34     28     29
About right          40     36     38     35     39     35     34     40     43
DK/NA                 9     17     14     13     18     18     16     12      5
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Too conservative     24%    17%    15%    14%    12%    17%    14%    25%
Not con enough       27     31     35     29     41     26     33     28
About right          41     37     37     44     38     44     40     34
DK/NA                 8     16     12     13     10     13     12     13
 
 
28. Do you think - Newt Gingrich is too conservative, not conservative enough, or about right?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Too conservative     29%     9%    46%    35%    32%    27%    29%    29%
Not con enough       17     23     13     16     17     18     17     23
About right          36     59     19     33     40     32     38     20
DK/NA                17      9     22     17     11     22     16     29
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Too conservative     39%    25%    31%    33%    20%    28%    23%    36%    36%
Not con enough       16     18     16     18     17     17     20     17     16
About right          33     37     38     33     38     31     38     35     43
DK/NA                11     20     15     15     25     23     19     12      5
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Too conservative     40%    24%    22%    28%    15%    30%    30%    33%
Not con enough       15     17     17     18     20     16     16     19
About right          35     40     43     39     51     37     40     30
DK/NA                11     19     18     15     14     16     15     18
 
 
29. Do you think - Rick Santorum is too conservative, not conservative enough, or about right? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
                                                                      *
Too conservative     28%    10%    46%    31%    32%    25%    28%    24%
Not con enough        5      7      4      3      6      4      4      8
About right          47     74     26     44     48     47     48     40
DK/NA                19      9     24     22     14     25     19     28
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Too conservative     43%    22%    27%    30%    27%    24%    24%    31%    41%
Not con enough        2      6      5      5      4      6      5      3      4
About right          45     49     44     49     53     43     52     48     46
DK/NA                10     24     24     15     16     27     20     17      9
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Too conservative     43%    21%    21%    29%    15%    29%    29%    34%
Not con enough        2      6      6      3      6      5      7      5
About right          44     50     54     51     62     48     50     43
DK/NA                10     24     20     17     17     18     13     18
 
 
30. If you had to choose, which type of experience do you think would better help a candidate serve effectively as president; someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
DC experience        44%    38%    59%    36%    42%    47%    42%    65%
DC outsider          46     53     29     57     51     43     50     24
DK/NA                 9      9     12      6      8     10      9     11
 
 
31. Would you describe - Mitt Romney as someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Has DC experience    38%    32%    37%    40%    38%    37%    37%    43%
Is DC outsider       48     57     46     46     53     43     50     32
DK/NA                15     11     17     13      8     20     13     25
 
 
32. Would you describe - Newt Gingrich as someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Has DC experience    80%    90%    71%    82%    86%    76%    83%    61%
Is DC outsider        9      4     15      8      9      9      7     23
DK/NA                11      6     13     10      5     15     10     17
 
 
33. Would you describe - Rick Santorum as someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
                                                                      *
Has DC experience    39%    41%    37%    40%    47%    32%    42%    22%
Is DC outsider       36     43     35     32     38     34     34     48
DK/NA                25     15     28     28     15     34     24     30
 
 
34. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  58%    22%    94%    59%    56%    61%    53%    94%
No                   39     75      5     38     41     37     44      3
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      3      2      3      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Yes                  60%    57%    63%    58%    49%    64%    57%    61%    52%
No                   39     39     35     40     46     34     40     39     46
DK/NA                 1      3      2      2      5      2      3      1      1
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Yes                  57%    51%    45%    53%    38%    57%    48%    65%
No                   42     45     53     44     60     40     49     33
DK/NA                 -      4      2      3      2      3      4      3
 
TREND: Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
                     Feb 15  May 1
                     2012    2008
                             
Yes                  58      63
No                   39      29 
DK/NA                 3       8 
 
 
35. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  40%    68%    17%    40%    44%    37%    43%    17%
No                   48     25     69     49     48     49     46     62
DK/NA                11      7     14     11      8     14     10     21
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Yes                  44%    38%    41%    37%    43%    31%    44%    44%    47%
No                   51     47     45     54     46     53     45     50     48
DK/NA                 5     14     14      8     12     16     11      6      5
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Yes                  46%    42%    47%    49%    52%    45%    42%    38%
No                   49     45     44     44     36     47     50     55
DK/NA                 5     13      9      7     11      8      8      8
 
 
36. Would you say that - Newt Gingrich cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  37%    67%    14%    36%    42%    33%    41%    12%
No                   53     25     74     55     50     55     50     73
DK/NA                10      8     12      9      8     12     10     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Yes                  40%    36%    38%    35%    40%    29%    37%    41%    46%
No                   55     52     50     57     49     56     52     54     51
DK/NA                 5     12     12      8     11     15     12      5      3
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Yes                  41%    40%    48%    42%    52%    40%    40%    31%
No                   54     48     44     49     38     51     53     61
DK/NA                 5     12      9      9     10      9      8      7
 
 
37. Would you say that - Rick Santorum cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     ALL REGISTERED VOTERS......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
                                                                      *
Yes                  53%    80%    32%    50%    56%    50%    56%    31%
No                   29     10     45     30     31     27     26     46
DK/NA                18      9     23     19     13     23     18     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Yes                  57%    51%    49%    57%    54%    45%    56%    55%    62%
No                   32     28     31     28     25     30     25     34     30
DK/NA                11     22     19     15     21     25     18     11      8
 
                     WHITE...................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEvngl  Mltry Union
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHld HsHld
 
Yes                  58%    55%    65%    59%    70%    56%    49%    47%
No                   32     23     21     24     16     26     34     36
DK/NA                10     21     14     17     14     18     17     17
 

Demographic Summary