February 27, 2012 - Men, Conservatives Push Santorum To 7-Pt. Ohio Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 45% Of GOP Voters Might Change Their Mind

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With strong support from men and conservatives, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum leads the Ohio GOP presidential field with 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 29 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 45 percent of voters say they might change their mind.

This is unchanged from the results of a February 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today's results show former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 17 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 11 percent of likely Republican primary voters.

Santorum tops Romney 38 - 25 percent among men, while women split 34 - 33 percent. Santorum wins 40 - 25 percent among self-identified conservatives and 49 - 19 percent among Tea Party members. Self-identified moderates back Romney 39 - 27 percent.

"A week out, Sen. Rick Santorum remains seven points ahead among Ohio's likely Republican primary voters. While almost half the voters say they might change their mind, Santorum supporters seem a little surer of their vote," said Peter A. Brown assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "What happens in Michigan tomorrow night might have an impact on voters in Ohio's Republican primary."

From February 23 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 847 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             17%    18%    17%    21%    10%    17%    17%    20%    16%
Romney               29     25     33     25     39     29     35     19     34
Santorum             36     38     34     40     27     44     32     49     31
Paul                 11     15      8      9     15      6     10      9     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      8      5      9      5      5      4      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             17%    17%    18%    15%    21%    16%    20%    17%    18%
Romney               33     27     27     28     33     32     22     28     37
Santorum             32     38     31     45     29     26     41     37     37
Paul                 13     11     19      7      6     14     13     15      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 4      7      5      5     10     12      4      3      3
 
TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Gingrich             17      20
Romney               29      29 
Santorum             36      36 
Paul                 11       9 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       - 
DK/NA                 6       6 
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............
                            CANDIDATE CHOICE........
                     Tot    NG     MR     RS     RP
 
Mind made up         52%    40%    49%    57%    63%
Might change         45     57     49     40     36
DK/NA                 3      2      2      3      1
 
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1 
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Mind made up         52      48
Might change         45      50 
DK/NA                 3       3 
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    54%    44%    58%    31%    50%    51%    64%    43%
Unfavorable          36     38     34     29     50     32     38     27     40
Hvn't hrd enough     12      6     18     10     17     15      8      5     14
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3      3      4      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            56%    46%    48%    51%    50%    35%    52%    50%    62%
Unfavorable          40     34     34     36     36     29     41     40     30
Hvn't hrd enough      3     16     17      9     10     33      5      6      6
REFUSED               1      4      2      4      4      4      2      4      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            49      49
Unfavorable          36      34 
Hvn't hrd enough     12      16 
REFUSED               3       2 
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            52%    51%    52%    50%    58%    46%    59%    49%    54%
Unfavorable          32     35     29     35     23     35     27     40     29
Hvn't hrd enough     13     10     16     10     16     15     10      6     15
REFUSED               4      4      3      4      2      4      4      5      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            60%    48%    45%    54%    56%    42%    46%    55%    61%
Unfavorable          29     33     37     31     26     29     43     29     28
Hvn't hrd enough      7     16     16     11     12     27      8     12      8
REFUSED               4      3      1      4      5      2      3      4      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            52      61
Unfavorable          32      25 
Hvn't hrd enough     13      12 
REFUSED               4       2 
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            59%    63%    54%    68%    43%    64%    57%    79%    52%
Unfavorable          16     17     15     10     27     11     18      7     21
Hvn't hrd enough     24     19     30     22     29     25     23     13     26
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            63%    57%    53%    65%    60%    43%    68%    58%    67%
Unfavorable          22     13     17     15     14     15     15     16     18
Hvn't hrd enough     15     29     30     20     24     41     17     25     16
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            59      62
Unfavorable          16       7 
Hvn't hrd enough     24      31 
REFUSED               1       - 
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            32%    37%    27%    30%    37%    25%    33%    30%    34%
Unfavorable          43     46     40     49     30     44     47     54     38
Hvn't hrd enough     24     17     32     20     32     29     19     14     26
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            36%    30%    36%    29%    28%    27%    30%    40%    28%
Unfavorable          46     41     34     50     46     33     48     38     52
Hvn't hrd enough     16     28     28     20     24     38     22     20     18
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      2      2      -      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
                             
Favorable            32      36
Unfavorable          43      33 
Hvn't hrd enough     24      29 
REFUSED               1       3 
 
 
7. Who do you think would be the strongest Republican candidate to run against President Obama in the general election: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or Ron Paul?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             16%    17%    14%    19%     7%    15%    14%    20%    14%
Romney               40     39     41     35     54     36     49     34     44
Santorum             25     27     23     29     16     33     21     32     23
Paul                  6      6      6      6      6      4      4      4      7
DK/NA                13     11     15     11     16     12     12     10     12
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             13%    17%    15%    15%    20%    11%    18%    17%    14%
Romney               47     37     42     38     42     41     31     47     46
Santorum             24     25     25     31     18     19     34     23     27
Paul                  6      6     11      4      2      9      8      6      2
DK/NA                10     15      8     12     19     19      8      7     11