March 5, 2012 - Romney Has Momentum In Ohio GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Presidential Primary Too Close To Call

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The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 - 29 percent lead.

In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 - 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney.

"To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It's deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it's Romney by three - a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back."

From March 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 753 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             15%    16%    14%    18%     9%    19%    12%    21%    12%
Romney               34     31     38     33     41     26     45     27     37
Santorum             31     33     29     35     20     40     29     40     28
Paul                 12     16      8      9     19      8      9      8     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5     10      5     11      7      4      4      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             13%    16%    13%    16%    19%    15%    17%    16%    13%
Romney               39     32     25     38     40     31     25     33     43
Santorum             36     28     34     30     28     24     33     36     30
Paul                  8     15     23      9      4     21     17     10      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 4      8      5      7      9      9      7      5      5
 
TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                             
Gingrich             15      17      17      20
Romney               34      31      29      29 
Santorum             31      35      36      36 
Paul                 12      12      11       9 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       -       - 
DK/NA                 7       6       6       6 
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1
                            CAND CHOSEN Q1....
                     Tot    NG     MR     RS
                     
Mind made up         69%    59%    68%    74%
Might change         30     40     32     25 
DK/NA                 1      2      -      1
 
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Mind made up         69      65      52      48
Might change         30      34      45      50 
DK/NA                 1       1       3       3
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    55%    50%    59%    41%    62%    50%    73%    45%
Unfavorable          38     35     40     33     48     28     43     22     44
Hvn't hrd enough      8      9      7      7     10      9      6      4     10
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            54%    53%    49%    57%    53%    39%    57%    60%    60%
Unfavorable          38     37     36     39     38     48     36     32     34
Hvn't hrd enough      6      9     14      4      5     12      7      7      5
REFUSED               2      1      -      -      4      1      1      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            53      48      49      49
Unfavorable          38      38      36      34 
Hvn't hrd enough      8      11      12      16 
REFUSED               1       2       3       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    54%    51%    53%    56%    48%    61%    50%    54%
Unfavorable          36     36     35     37     29     41     29     43     33
Hvn't hrd enough      9      9     10      7     15      9      8      6     11
REFUSED               2      1      4      2      1      3      3      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            60%    48%    44%    57%    57%    45%    45%    53%    64%
Unfavorable          31     39     42     34     32     40     42     39     29
Hvn't hrd enough      7     10     14      6      7     11     10      8      7
REFUSED               1      3      -      3      5      4      3      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                             
Favorable            53      53      52      61
Unfavorable          36      34      32      25 
Hvn't hrd enough      9      11      13      12 
REFUSED               2       2       4       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            59%    59%    58%    64%    44%    71%    55%    78%    51%
Unfavorable          26     27     25     23     35     16     31     14     31
Hvn't hrd enough     13     13     14     11     21     12     12      6     16
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      -      2      2      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            64%    56%    57%    59%    59%    46%    64%    66%    62%
Unfavorable          23     28     27     25     29     38     20     22     24
Hvn't hrd enough     10     15     15     15      9     15     15     11     13
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      4      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            59      57      59      62
Unfavorable          26      24      16       7 
Hvn't hrd enough     13      17      24      31 
REFUSED               2       2       1       -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            37%    41%    32%    34%    46%    31%    39%    37%    37%
Unfavorable          40     40     40     45     30     43     40     49     37
Hvn't hrd enough     20     16     26     19     23     25     19     11     24
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      1      2      2      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            39%    36%    44%    37%    28%    37%    37%    37%    40%
Unfavorable          42     40     33     45     43     33     42     45     39
Hvn't hrd enough     17     23     21     17     25     29     20     16     20
REFUSED               3      2      2      1      4      1      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 05  Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            37      32      32      36
Unfavorable          40      42      43      33 
Hvn't hrd enough     20      24      24      29 
REFUSED               2       3       1       3