May 10, 2012 - Portman Doesn't Move Needle In Ohio Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mandel Narrows Gap With Brown In Senate Race

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The presidential race in Ohio remains too close to call as President Barack Obama gets 45 percent to 44 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, with a 45 - 45 percent dead heat if the GOP adds home-state Sen. Rob Portman as Romney's running mate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ohio's other U.S. Senator, Sherrod Brown, holds a 46 - 40 percent lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, compared to a 46 - 36 percent Brown lead in a March 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is the first survey showing the race in single digits.

The Romney-Portman v. Obama-Biden matchup compares to a February 15 survey in which Obama had 46 percent to Romney's 44 percent without running mates, moving to Obama- Biden at 47 percent to Romney-Portman at 43 percent.

"Adding Sen. Rob Portman to the Romney ticket produces no measurable change, despite speculation about Portman's potential for helping Romney carry the key state of Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute.

"Republicans have never won the White House without Ohio and in 2004, for instance, George W. Bush won the state and re-election by 2 percent - so every little change is important."

The gender gap remains substantial, with or without Portman:
  • In an Obama-Romney matchup, men vote Republican 50 - 40 percent while women go Democratic 49 - 38 percent;
  • Matching Romney and Portman against Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden leaves men at 51 - 40 percent Republican, with women at 49 - 41 percent Democratic.
Interestingly, 59 percent of Ohio voters say they don't know enough about Portman to have an opinion of him, with 26 percent viewing him favorably and 14 percent unfavorably.

Vice President Biden has a split 39 - 39 percent favorability. Romney gets a 35 - 37 percent favorability and Obama gets a 48 - 47 percent score.

In the Obama-Biden v. Romney-Portman matchup, Republicans stay loyal 89 - 6 percent while Democrats go with their ticket 90 - 6 percent. Independent voters, the key bloc, go Republican 45 - 39 percent.

Ohio voters give Obama a split 49 - 48 percent job approval.

In the Senate race, Brown wins Democrats 85 - 5 percent, while Mandel wins Republicans 79 - 10 percent. Brown leads among independent voters 42 - 38 percent. Brown's 50 - 34 percent lead among women swamps Mandel's 46 - 41 percent margin with men.

Brown sports a 41 - 30 percent favorability rating. Mandel has a 30 - 18 percent favorability, with 51 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"Is Sen. Sherrod Brown hearing the footsteps of State Treasurer Josh Mandel?" Brown asked. "Ohio voters say 44 - 38 percent that Brown deserves another six years in the Senate, matching his six-point margin over Mandel, but short of the 50 percent any incumbent would like to have.

"Meanwhile, voters are getting to know Mandel. In February, 71 percent didn't know enough about him to form an opinion. That 'don't know' number is now 51 percent."

Brown gets a 46 - 33 percent job approval from voters, compared to 38 - 23 percent for Portman.

From May 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,069 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Obama                45%     7%    89%    39%    40%    49%    39%    90%
Romney               44     86      5     43     50     38     49      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      2      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      5      4      2      3      -
DK/NA                 7      5      4     10      5     10      7      8
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama                45%    36%    30%    43%    33%    44%    24%    44%    36%
Romney               49     50     58     47     55     44     66     44     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      2      1      2      2      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      5      3      3      4      2      2      4      1
DK/NA                 5      7      6      6      5      8      6      7      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama                47%    44%    49%    48%    46%    38%    45%    45%    44%
Romney               46     42     36     40     46     54     45     41     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      2      2      1      1      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      4      3      1      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                 6      8      9      7      5      5      7      7      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                                                             OBAMA.........
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28  Feb 15  Jan 18  Mar 28  Dec 08
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Obama                45      44      47      46      44      47      42
Romney               44      42      41      44      42      41      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       2       1       3       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3       3       3       3       4
DK/NA                 7       8       7       7       8       7       8
 
 
2. Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Rob Portman for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Obama/Biden          45%     6%    90%    39%    40%    49%    38%    91%
Romney/Portman       45     89      6     45     51     41     51      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      5      4      1      3      -
DK/NA                 6      4      3      8      4      8      6      8
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Obama/Biden          45%    35%    32%    43%    33%    43%    22%    44%    38%
Romney/Portman       50     52     60     49     56     47     68     47     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      2      2      4      1      3      2      1
DK/NA                 4      7      6      5      5      7      6      6      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama/Biden          47%    44%    52%    47%    46%    38%    45%    46%    44%
Romney/Portman       47     45     38     43     47     55     45     45     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      5      1      1      3      2      1
DK/NA                 4      7      7      4      4      5      6      6      7
 
TREND: Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Rob Portman for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote?
                     May 10  Feb 15
                     2012    2012
 
Obama/Biden          45      47
Romney/Portman       45      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3
DK/NA                 6       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            35%    69%    10%    31%    42%    30%    
Unfavorable          37      8     65     35     36     38     
Hvn't hrd enough     24     21     23     28     20     29     
REFUSED               4      2      2      6      3      4     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28  Feb 15  Jan 18  Feb 15  Jan 30
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2007
 
Favorable            35      36      36      37      36      37       9
Unfavorable          37      36      43      40      34      40      10
Hvn't hrd enough     24      25      19      21      26      21      80
REFUSED               4       4       3       2       4       2       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            48%    10%    89%    45%    43%    52%    
Unfavorable          47     86      8     49     53     42     
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      2      3      1      3     
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      3      2     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 49% Feb 2012)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28  Feb 15  Jan 18  Mar 28* Jan 30
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2007
 
Favorable            48      46      49      49      48      49      35
Unfavorable          47      45      46      46      47      46      12
Hvn't hrd enough      2       5       2       2       2       2      52
REFUSED               2       5       2       3       2       2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            39%    11%    74%    33%    35%    42%    
Unfavorable          39     73      8     39     49     31     
Hvn't hrd enough     20     15     17     26     15     26     
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 10  Dec 08  Jan 30
                     2012    2011    2007
 
Favorable            39      34      19
Unfavorable          39      40      19
Hvn't hrd enough     20      25      61
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            26%    49%     9%    22%    31%    21%    
Unfavorable          14      3     28     13     16     13     
Hvn't hrd enough     59     47     61     65     53     64     
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 26% Jun 2010)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  Jun 30  Apr 29  Mar 31  Feb 24  May 10  Dec 10
                     2012    2010    2010    2010    2010    2012*   2008
 
Favorable            26      26      25      25      25      26      12
Unfavorable          14       7       8       8       7      14       7
Hvn't hrd enough     59      66      65      66      66      59      80
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Brown                46%    10%    85%    42%    41%    50%    
Mandel               40     79      5     38     46     34     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      -      1     
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      3      4      -     
DK/NA                12     10      8     16      9     15     
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") (* High also 49% Sep 2011, Jul 2011)
                                                             BROWN.........
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  Mar 29  Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Oct 26  May 19
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2011*   2011
 
Brown                46      46      48      47      49      49      45
Mandel               40      36      35      32      34      34      31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3       3       2       2       2       1
DK/NA                12      14      14      18      14      14      21
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            41%    15%    75%    35%    40%    41%    
Unfavorable          30     57      3     29     38     23     
Hvn't hrd enough     29     26     22     34     22     35     
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 10  Feb 15  Jan 19
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            41      41      42
Unfavorable          30      26      26
Hvn't hrd enough     29      31      30
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Favorable            30%    54%     9%    30%    36%    24%    
Unfavorable          18      3     38     14     21     15     
Hvn't hrd enough     51     42     53     56     43     59     
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1     
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 10  Feb 15  Jan 19
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            30      16      17
Unfavorable          18      12      13
Hvn't hrd enough     51      71      69
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Approve              38%    65%    15%    36%    44%    33%    
Disapprove           23      5     41     23     23     23     
DK/NA                39     31     44     41     33     44     
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  Feb 14  Jan 19  Oct 25  Sep 27  Feb 14  Mar 24
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2012    2011
 
Approve              38      42      39      38      41      42      30
Disapprove           23      25      25      26      23      25      25
DK/NA                39      34      36      36      35      34      45
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Approve              46%    20%    77%    42%    44%    48%    
Disapprove           33     57      8     34     38     29     
DK/NA                21     22     15     25     18     23     
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% May 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Sep 28  Sep 28  Jul 07
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011*   2009
 
Approve              46      47      47      50      52      52      41
Disapprove           33      34      34      30      31      31      29
DK/NA                21      19      19      20      18      18      30
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error)
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk*
 
Approve              49%    12%    89%    47%    45%    52%    43%    93%
Disapprove           48     87     10     51     53     44     55      3
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      2      3      2      3
 
                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold
 
Approve              48%    40%    35%    46%    39%    47%    28%    47%    41%
Disapprove           51     57     62     53     59     51     71     51     58
DK/NA                 1      3      2      -      2      2      1      2      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              50%    49%    55%    51%    50%    42%    52%    48%    47%
Disapprove           48     49     41     47     48     56     45     50     50
DK/NA                 2      3      4      2      2      1      3      2      3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28  Feb 15  Jan 18  Feb 06  Dec 08
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2009    2011
 
Approve              49      48      47      47      44      67      41
Disapprove           48      47      49      48      51      16      55
DK/NA                 2       5       5       5       5      17       4
 
 
16. Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    
 
Yes/Deserves         44%    15%    78%    40%    41%    46%    
No/Does not          38     66      9     39     43     34     
DK/NA                18     20     13     21     16     21     
 
TREND: Do you feel that Sherrod Brown deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 10  Feb 15  Jan 19  Oct 26  Sep 28  Sep 28  May 10
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2012
 
Yes/Deserves         44      46      48      48      50      50      44
No/Does not          38      34      33      31      34      34      38
DK/NA                18      20      19      20      16      16      18
 
 
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan?
                                                               Miltry
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHold
                                                                     
Approve              53%    25%    85%    49%    53%    54%    48%
Disapprove           40     66      9     45     42     38     45 
DK/NA                 7     10      5      5      5      9      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan?
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Approve              53      51      52
Disapprove           40      39      40
DK/NA                 7      10       8
 
 
33. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                                                               Miltry
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHold
 
Right thing          41%    52%    37%    37%    48%    34%    41%
Shld not be involved 54     44     58     57     49     58     54
DK/NA                 5      5      5      5      2      8      5
 
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                                                             RIGHT THING..
                                                             High   Low
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28  Jan 20  Jun 30  Feb 23 Mar 28
                     2012    2012    2012    2011    2010    2010   2012
 
Right thing          41      33      28      38      46      55     28
Shld not be involved 54      59      65      54      48      39     65
DK/NA                 5       8       7       8       6       6      7
 
 
34. From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right?
                                                               Miltry
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHold
 
Too quickly          16%    36%     3%    14%    22%    12%    20%
Not quickly enough   29     31     21     34     27     31     32 
About right          49     27     74     48     50     49     45 
DK/NA                 5      7      2      4      2      8      3
 
TREND: From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right?
                     May 10  May 03  Mar 28
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Too quickly          16      17      15
Not quickly enough   29      32      34
About right          49      43      47
DK/NA                 5       8       5
 
 

Demographic Summary