May 15, 2014 - Native Son Kasich Best Against Clinton In Ohio 2016, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Stuck Deep In Voter Approval Quicksand
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Ohio Gov. John Kasich runs better against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton than any other Republican in an early look at the 2016 presidential race in Ohio, but still trails the Democratic front-runner 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to Secretary Clinton's 51 - 39 percent lead over Gov. Kasich in a February 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Clinton leads other possible 2016 Republican contenders by margins of 7 to 14 percentage points:
  • 48 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
  • 47 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
  • 49 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
  • 46 - 38 percent over N.J. Gov. Christopher Christie;
  • 48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
  • 51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
  • 49 - 41 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
"Gov. John Kasich runs best against Secretary Hillary Clinton for 2016 among eight Republican candidates, although her lead over most of them has dropped considerably since Quinnipiac University surveyed Ohio voters in February," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Most of the GOP candidates are bunched together, trailing by high single digits in trial heats. Kasich's standing might seem logical given his home field advantage, but in February Kasich trailed Ms. Clinton by a dozen points and was down in the pack. Still Ms. Clinton has the best favorability rating of the group."

By a 53 - 43 percent margin, Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 47 - 29 percent for Kasich. Favorability ratings for other Republicans are:
  • Negative 32 - 38 percent for Jeb Bush;
  • 36 - 36 percent for Christie;
  • 38 - 29 percent for Paul;
  • 24 - 26 percent for Cruz;
  • 37 - 31 percent for Huckabee;
  • 39 - 30 percent for Ryan;
  • 31 - 19 percent for Rubio. President Obama Approval
Ohio voters give President Barack Obama a negative 39 - 58 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 40 - 55 percent score February 20.

Negative scores are 35 - 63 percent among men, 43 - 53 percent among women, 8 - 91 percent among Republicans and 34 - 63 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 82 - 17 percent.

"President Barack Obama's job approval remains stuck at about 40 percent in Ohio. Although he is not on the ballot this November, such a consistently low rating can't be helpful to the Democratic ticket, especially gubernatorial nominee Ed Fitzgerald who currently trails Gov. Kasich 50 - 35 percent and is somewhat of an unknown to Ohio voters. If the president's numbers remain in the basement, look for Kasich's TV ads to tie Fitzgerald to the president," Brown said.

Ohio voters approve 49 - 33 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is doing and give U.S. Sen. Rob Portman a 44 - 27 percent approval rating.

From May 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,174 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

2. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            47%    78%    18%    47%    51%    43%    33%    44%    46%    60%
Unfavorable          29      6     54     27     30     29     19     30     38     24
Hvn't hrd enough     21     14     25     23     17     24     46     20     14     13
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      2      4      3      6      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 15  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 10
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2013    2008
 
Favorable            47      42      41      47      46      48      18
Unfavorable          29      30      30      28      29      32       8
Hvn't hrd enough     21      24      27      22      24      17      73
REFUSED               3       4       3       3       1       3       1
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              48%     8%    93%    48%    40%    56%    55%    46%    53%    44%
Bush                 39     82      4     34     44     35     26     38     40     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      3      2      -      4      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      1      7      6      3      9      6      2      2
DK/NA                 6      6      2      8      7      5     10      6      4      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              48      51      50
Bush                 39      36      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4       4
DK/NA                 6       6       7
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              47%     9%    91%    46%    38%    55%    53%    43%    52%    46%
Rubio                40     82      4     36     49     33     32     44     37     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      4      2      8      2      3      2
DK/NA                 8      6      3     12      8      9      8     10      7      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              47      50      48
Rubio                40      36      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3
DK/NA                 8       9       8
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%    12%    92%    48%    41%    55%    51%    46%    54%    46%
Paul                 41     80      4     40     50     33     38     42     39     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      3      3      6      3      3      2
DK/NA                 6      4      2      8      4      7      4      7      3      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27  Jun 26
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              49      51      50      47
Paul                 41      38      40      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3       2
DK/NA                 6       6       6       6
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              46%    10%    89%    43%    37%    54%    51%    41%    51%    46%
Christie             38     77      5     36     45     33     32     39     39     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      3      2      1      4      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      2      2      8      7      3      6      7      5      3
DK/NA                 8      8      4     10      7      9     10      9      5      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27  Jun 26
                     2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Clinton              46      49      42      42
Christie             38      36      41      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       4       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       5       4       4
DK/NA                 8       7      10      10
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              48%     7%    93%    48%    40%    55%    53%    45%    54%    43%
Ryan                 41     84      3     38     49     34     36     43     39     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      2      1      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      3      2      5      3      2      3
DK/NA                 7      7      2      9      6      7      6      8      4      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              48      49      49
Ryan                 41      40      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3
DK/NA                 7       5       5
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              51%    14%    94%    50%    43%    58%    58%    49%    54%    48%
Cruz                 37     74      3     34     44     30     25     38     37     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      1      2      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      4      2      7      2      2      3
DK/NA                 8      8      2     10      8      8      8      9      6      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              51      51      50
Cruz                 37      34      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       3
DK/NA                 8       9       9
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              47%     7%    92%    44%    38%    54%    49%    43%    54%    43%
Kasich               42     85      5     42     50     35     35     45     39     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      1      2      2      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      5      4      2      7      4      2      2
DK/NA                 6      5      2      8      5      7      8      6      4      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              47      51      49
Kasich               42      39      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4       3
DK/NA                 6       5       7
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              49%     9%    93%    50%    42%    56%    56%    46%    55%    45%
Huckabee             41     84      4     37     49     34     29     45     39     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1      -      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      4      2      6      3      3      3
DK/NA                 5      4      1      8      4      7      9      4      3      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* 2008 election)
                     May 15  Dec 05
                     2014    2007*
 
Clinton              49      45
Huckabee             41      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4
DK/NA                 5      10
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            53%    17%    91%    54%    44%    61%    60%    50%    57%    51%
Unfavorable          43     79      6     41     52     34     31     47     41     44
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      3      3      3      4      8      3      1      3
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     May 15  Jun 26  May 22  May 01  Apr 02  May 15  Nov 14
                     2014    2013    2008    2008    2008    2014    2007
                                                                     
Favorable            53      52      52      46      47      53      44
Unfavorable          43      44      42      44      45      43      44
Hvn't hrd enough      3       3       4       6       6       3       9
REFUSED               1       1       2       4       3       1       3
 
13. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            32%    60%     9%    31%    35%    30%    20%    31%    34%    40%
Unfavorable          38     12     59     38     40     35     39     39     42     29
Hvn't hrd enough     29     27     31     30     24     34     39     29     24     30
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            36%    53%    22%    35%    38%    34%    31%    34%    37%    40%
Unfavorable          36     23     48     36     39     34     27     37     42     33
Hvn't hrd enough     26     23     29     27     21     31     42     28     18     25
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      -      1      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 15  Jun 26
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable            36      48
Unfavorable          36      16
Hvn't hrd enough     26      34
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            38%    63%    10%    41%    48%    29%    40%    41%    34%    37%
Unfavorable          29      7     53     28     26     31     16     24     37     35
Hvn't hrd enough     32     30     37     30     25     39     43     34     29     28
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 15  Jun 26
                     2014    2013
 
Favorable            38      43
Unfavorable          29      26
Hvn't hrd enough     32      31
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            24%    43%     2%    25%    33%    17%    14%    29%    22%    24%
Unfavorable          26      9     44     27     27     25     15     25     33     27
Hvn't hrd enough     49     48     54     47     39     58     71     46     43     49
REFUSED               -      1      -      1      1      -      -      -      1      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            37%    66%     7%    38%    43%    32%    20%    38%    38%    42%
Unfavorable          31      7     52     34     31     32     25     33     37     27
Hvn't hrd enough     31     26     41     28     26     37     55     29     24     30
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 15  Dec 05  Jan 30
                     2014    2007    2007
 
Favorable            37      22       3
Unfavorable          31      13       7
Hvn't hrd enough     31      63      89
REFUSED               -       1       1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            39%    70%    10%    38%    46%    33%    37%    43%    35%    39%
Unfavorable          30      5     55     31     29     30     19     28     38     29
Hvn't hrd enough     30     25     35     29     24     36     44     27     27     31
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      2      -      -      1      1      1
 
 
19. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            31%    55%     7%    30%    38%    24%    19%    36%    28%    32%
Unfavorable          19      3     40     17     19     19     17     16     26     20
Hvn't hrd enough     50     42     54     52     42     56     65     48     46     48
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              49%    36%    70%    46%    42%    56%    55%    46%    51%    48%
Disapprove           33     43     15     36     41     25     22     36     33     34
DK/NA                18     21     14     18     17     19     23     17     16     18
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 52% Sep 2011, May 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27  Jun 26  Apr 19  Dec 12  Jul 07
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2012*   2009
 
Approve              49      48      47      46      47      52      41
Disapprove           33      34      37      38      38      35      29
DK/NA                18      18      16      16      15      13      30
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              44%    62%    27%    47%    46%    42%    50%    43%    42%    45%
Disapprove           27     15     39     27     28     27     18     28     31     28
DK/NA                29     23     34     27     25     32     33     28     27     27
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 44% Jun 2013, Feb 2013)
                                                             APPROVE......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27  Jun 26  Apr 19  May 15  Mar 24
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2014*   2011
                                                                     
Approve              44      38      41      44      40      44      30
Disapprove           27      32      28      26      31      27      25
DK/NA                29      30      30      30      29      29      45
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              39%     8%    82%    34%    35%    43%    48%    33%    46%    37%
Disapprove           58     91     17     63     63     53     48     64     53     59
DK/NA                 3      1      2      4      2      4      4      3      1      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 15  Feb 20  Nov 27  Jun 26  Apr 19  Feb 06  Nov 27
                     2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2009    2013
 
Approve              39      40      34      40      45      67      34
Disapprove           58      55      61      57      51      16      61
DK/NA                 3       4       5       3       4      17       5
 
 

Demographic Summary

Additional Crosstabs