July 30, 2014 - Kasich Tops Challenger By 12 Points In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Collective Bargaining Fight Important To Most Voters
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Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, the Democratic challenger in the race for Ohio governor, remains largely unknown and is gaining little ground against Republican Gov. John Kasich who leads 48 - 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 35 percent Kasich lead in a May 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

The traditional gender gap exists as men back the Republican 53 - 31 percent, while women are divided, with 43 percent for Gov. Kasich and 41 percent for FitzGerald. Kasich leads 92 - 2 percent among Republicans and 47 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to FitzGerald 78 - 9 percent.

Ohio voters approve 55 - 31 percent of the job Kasich is doing, virtually unchanged from his all-time high of 56 - 33 percent May 14. Voters say 50 - 37 percent that he deserves reelection, compared to 53 - 37 percent in May.

Kasich gets a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, little changed from May.

Less than 100 days before election, 65 percent of Ohio voters don't know enough about FitzGerald to form an opinion of him.

"County Executive Ed FitzGerald is gaining little or no ground in his bid to unseat incumbent Gov. John Kasich. The Democratic nominee still has a long way to go with little more than three months until Election Day," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Almost two-thirds of registered voters don't know enough about FitzGerald to have an opinion of him. That's an awful lot of Ohioans who still have to be introduced to him. This survey was conducted during the period in which the Democrat had just begun his television advertising buy."

A total of 60 percent of Ohio voters are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in the state, while 39 percent are somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.

Kasich gets strong character scores, while FitzGerald remains plagued by lack of voter recognition:
  • Voters say 66 - 25 percent that the governor has strong leadership qualities, compared to 36 - 18 percent, with 46 percent undecided, for FitzGerald;
  • Kasich is honest and trustworthy, voters say 52 - 34 percent, compared to 34 - 19 percent, with 47 percent undecided, for the Democrat;
  • The governor cares about their needs and problems, voters say 48 - 41 percent, compared to FitzGerald's 36 - 24 percent, with 41 percent undecided;
  • Voters say 53 - 36 percent that Kasich has good judgment, compared to FitzGerald at 32 - 18 percent, with 49 percent undecided.
The incumbent tops the challenger on handling important issues:
  • 49 - 33 percent on the economy and jobs;
  • 50 - 31 percent on taxes;
  • 42 - 36 percent on education;
  • 50 - 31 percent on government spending;
  • 36 - 32 percent on abortion;
  • 43 - 33 percent on health care.
The battle over collective bargaining for government employees is still very important or somewhat important to 80 percent of Ohio voters.

That fight makes 31 percent of voters less likely to vote for Kasich, with 19 percent more likely and 45 percent who say it will not affect their vote.

"Not only does Gov. Kasich hold a solid lead, but he also is viewed as better able to handle the economy and jobs and even normally Democratic issues such as abortion and health care," Brown said. "He also has the edge on character traits. And 50 percent or more of voters say he deserves another term and think he is doing a good job in his first term in office.

"Four out of five voters say Kasich's largest embarrassment as governor - the SB5 fiasco - is important to their vote. Many voters say the fight over collective bargaining makes them less likely to vote for Kasich, but a plurality says it won't affect their choice."

From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed FitzGerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
FitzGerald           36%     2%    78%    28%    31%    41%    33%    39%    37%    35%
Kasich               48     92      9     47     53     43     40     46     48     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      3      4      3      2      5      2      2      1
DK/NA                13      5     10     20     12     14     21     13     12      9
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed FitzGerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Apr 18  Feb 28
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
FitzGerald           36      35      38      37      33      37      35
Kasich               48      50      43      44      47      46      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       4       4       2       2
DK/NA                13      11      16      15      15      15      17
 
 
2. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            46%    81%    17%    45%    51%    41%    28%    43%    49%    57%
Unfavorable          30      4     57     27     27     34     29     32     32     26
Hvn't hrd enough     21     13     23     25     19     22     42     21     17     12
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3      1      3      2      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Feb 28  Dec 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013    2008
 
Favorable            46      47      42      41      47      48      18
Unfavorable          30      29      30      30      28      32       8
Hvn't hrd enough     21      21      24      27      22      17      73
REFUSED               3       3       4       3       3       3       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ed FitzGerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            23%     6%    44%    18%    20%    25%    20%    22%    24%    23%
Unfavorable          12     22      2     12     15      9      9     10     14     14
Hvn't hrd enough     65     71     54     69     63     66     69     68     62     61
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      1      1      2      -      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ed FitzGerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Jul 30  Dec 11
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014    2012
                                                                     
Favorable            23      20      18      17      15      23      10
Unfavorable          12      15      11      11       9      12       5
Hvn't hrd enough     65      63      70      71      76      65      84
REFUSED               1       2       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              55%    85%    27%    55%    60%    50%    48%    54%    53%    63%
Disapprove           31      5     58     28     28     33     27     32     36     26
DK/NA                14     10     15     17     12     17     26     15     11     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 30% Jan 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  May 14  Mar 23
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014    2011*
 
Approve              55      56      51      52      54      56      30
Disapprove           31      33      36      33      32      33      46
DK/NA                14      11      13      15      13      11      23
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              39%    60%    20%    41%    46%    33%    42%    42%    35%    40%
Disapprove           43     20     65     40     40     45     36     45     46     39
DK/NA                18     20     15     19     14     22     21     13     19     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Dec 10  Dec 12
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2008    2006
 
Approve              39      42      38      41      41      46      25
Disapprove           43      41      43      42      41      35      55
DK/NA                18      18      19      18      18      19      20
 
 
17. Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes/Deserves         50%    80%    21%    53%    56%    45%    43%    47%    51%    57%
No/Does not          37      8     69     33     33     41     34     41     40     32
DK/NA                13     12     10     14     11     14     23     11     10     11
 
TREND: Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                             DESERVES......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  May 14  Dec 11
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2014    2012
 
Yes/Deserves         50      53      46      48      49      53      36
No/Does not          37      37      42      39      37      37      43
DK/NA                13      10      13      13      14      10      21
 
 
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very satisfied        8%    16%     1%     9%     9%     8%     4%     8%     7%    13%
Smwht satisfied      52     67     40     50     56     49     48     52     53     54
Smwht dissatisfied   27     11     41     27     23     30     34     26     29     22
Very dissatisfied    12      5     18     13     12     13     12     14     11     10
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      -      2      -      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*High also 60% May 2014, **Low also 29% Mar 2011)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Dec 11  May 09  Jul 30  Oct 25
                     2014    2014    2014    2012    2012    2014*   2011**
                                                                     
Very satisfied        8       8       7       6       4       8       3
Smwht satisfied      52      52      49      52      47      52      26
Smwht dissatisfied   27      28      28      27      31      27      34
Very dissatisfied    12      11      16      14      17      12      37
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
19. Would you say that John Kasich - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  66%    89%    43%    67%    70%    62%    66%    66%    65%    69%
No                   25      5     49     21     21     28     14     24     30     26
DK/NA                 9      6      8     12      9      9     20     10      6      6
 
TREND: Would you say that John Kasich has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  May 09
                     2014    2014    2014    2012
 
Yes                  66      67      61      54
No                   25      23      31      36
DK/NA                 9      10       8      10
 
 
20. Would you say that John Kasich - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  52%    81%    28%    52%    57%    47%    41%    45%    54%    64%
No                   34      9     56     34     32     37     37     40     36     24
DK/NA                14     10     16     14     11     16     23     15     10     12
 
TREND: Would you say that John Kasich is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26
                     2014    2014    2014    2013
 
Yes                  52      54      52      53
No                   34      31      35      33
DK/NA                14      15      13      14
 
 
21. Would you say that John Kasich - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  48%    81%    20%    49%    51%    46%    44%    43%    50%    57%
No                   41     10     70     39     38     44     37     47     42     34
DK/NA                11      9     10     12     11     11     19     10      8      9
 
TREND: Would you say that John Kasich cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  May 09
                     2014    2014    2014    2012
 
Yes                  48      53      43      40
No                   41      39      47      50
DK/NA                11       8       9      10
 
 
22. Would you say that John Kasich - has good judgment or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  53%    82%    26%    54%    59%    47%    41%    51%    54%    61%
No                   36      9     63     33     31     39     39     36     38     30
DK/NA                12      9     10     13      9     14     19     13      8      9
 
TREND: Would you say that John Kasich has good judgment or not?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Yes                  53      57      49
No                   36      30      38
DK/NA                12      13      13
 
 
23. Do you think John Kasich is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Liberal              10%     7%    13%     8%    10%    10%    11%     9%    11%     7%
Conservative         31      6     56     30     29     34     33     36     32     23
About right          47     79     19     49     51     43     40     42     49     56
DK/NA                12      8     12     13     11     13     17     13      7     14
 
TREND: Do you think John Kasich is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Jul 30  May 14  Feb 19  Nov 26  Jun 25  Apr 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Liberal              10      11      13      10      10      10
Conservative         31      28      29      27      26      26
About right          47      49      45      47      48      47
DK/NA                12      13      13      17      16      16
 
 
24. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  36%    18%    54%    37%    37%    36%    43%    39%    36%    29%
No                   18     27     12     16     22     15     12     20     18     19
DK/NA                46     55     34     47     41     50     45     41     45     51
 
 
25. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  34%    18%    56%    31%    35%    33%    27%    35%    35%    37%
No                   19     24     12     18     22     15     22     23     18     11
DK/NA                47     58     33     51     42     51     51     41     47     52
 
TREND: Would you say that Ed FitzGerald is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     Jul 30  Nov 26
                     2014    2013
 
Yes                  34      28
No                   19      17
DK/NA                47      55
 
 
26. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  36%    20%    57%    31%    37%    35%    40%    33%    39%    34%
No                   24     29     15     24     27     20     22     28     22     20
DK/NA                41     50     28     45     36     45     38     39     39     46
 
 
27. Would you say that Ed FitzGerald - has good judgment or not?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  32%    13%    52%    31%    34%    31%    36%    34%    33%    27%
No                   18     29     10     15     24     14     16     19     20     16
DK/NA                49     58     37     53     42     56     48     47     47     57
 
 
28. Do you think Ed FitzGerald is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Liberal              21%    38%     6%    19%    27%    15%    18%    18%    23%    24%
Conservative          5      2      8      5      5      4      7      7      4      3
About right          34     14     58     29     35     33     37     34     34     31
DK/NA                41     46     28     48     33     48     38     41     39     43
 
TREND: Do you think Ed FitzGerald is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Jul 30  Nov 26  Jun 25  Apr 18
                     2014    2013    2013    2013
 
Liberal              21      16      13      13
Conservative          5       5       5       3
About right          34      29      29      28
DK/NA                41      49      53      55
 
 
29. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - the economy and jobs, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               49%    82%    18%    49%    54%    44%    42%    46%    49%    56%
FitzGerald           33      3     66     30     30     37     35     36     34     29
DK/NA                18     15     16     22     16     20     22     19     18     15
 
 
30. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - taxes, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               50%    79%    22%    51%    56%    43%    48%    49%    48%    54%
FitzGerald           31      6     58     27     28     33     30     31     32     29
DK/NA                20     14     20     22     16     23     22     20     20     17
 
 
31. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - education, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               42%    72%    17%    41%    47%    36%    38%    38%    41%    49%
FitzGerald           36      6     64     35     33     38     40     37     37     31
DK/NA                22     22     18     24     19     25     22     25     22     20
 
 
32. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - government spending, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               50%    80%    20%    51%    58%    42%    49%    49%    48%    54%
FitzGerald           31      5     59     27     27     34     31     31     33     28
DK/NA                20     16     21     21     15     23     20     21     19     19
 
 
33. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - the issue of abortion, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               36%    64%    12%    35%    39%    32%    40%    31%    35%    39%
FitzGerald           32      8     55     30     31     32     34     37     31     24
DK/NA                33     28     33     35     29     36     26     33     34     37
 
 
34. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - health care, Kasich or FitzGerald?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Kasich               43%    75%    14%    44%    48%    38%    42%    43%    38%    49%
FitzGerald           33      5     63     30     33     34     31     35     36     29
DK/NA                24     20     23     26     19     28     27     22     26     22
 
 
35. As you might recall, in his first year in office Governor Kasich signed legislation that limited collective bargaining for public employees in the state. Ohio voters subsequently repealed the law. How important would you say the fight over the law is in your decision of who to support in the election for governor, very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
Very important       45%    29%    65%    41%    44%    46%    32%    46%    49%    46%
Somewhat important   35     46     26     35     34     36     39     34     33     38
Not so important     11     15      5     14     11     11     18     10     11      8
Not important at all  7      8      4      8      9      5      9      8      6      5
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      2      2      3      1      -      4
 
 
36. Does the fight over the law make you more likely to vote for John Kasich's re-election, less likely or doesn't it make a difference?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
 
More likely          19%    35%     6%    18%    25%    14%    13%    18%    20%    25%
Less likely          31      6     58     29     30     32     20     34     37     28
No difference        45     53     34     50     42     48     67     44     41     40
DK/NA                 4      6      2      4      3      6      -      4      2      7
 
 

Demographic Summary

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