November 8, 2007 - Giuliani Close To Clinton In Pennsylvania Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Despite Big Primary Lead, Clinton Has Big Negatives

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has narrowed the gap with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton among Pennsylvania voters, getting 43 percent to Sen. Clinton's 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 42 percent Clinton lead over Giuliani in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

If Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would support her, with 21 percent who might support her and 41 percent who say they would not vote for her under any circumstances. If Giuliani gets the Republican nod, 27 percent say they would vote for him, with 36 percent who might vote for him and 33 percent who say they won't vote for him under any circumstances.

Fifty-four percent of Pennsylvania voters would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, with only 3 percent who would be more likely and 39 percent who say it wouldn't affect their vote.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton has had a rough couple of weeks on the campaign trail and her numbers show it, dropping slightly in Pennsylvania. But she is still the strongest candidate in the field and holds the slimmest of edges among voters that both 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani and War hero Sen. John McCain will have a hard time overcoming," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This poll shows that there is a hard core of just over 40 percent who are unlikely to vote for Sen. Clinton under any circumstances, but it takes just 50 percent plus one to win the election."

"Democratic victories in the past few presidential elections have brought into question Pennsylvania's status as a key battleground state, but Mayor Giuliani or Sen. McCain could buck that trend if either is the Republican candidate," Richards added.

In other head to head matchups:
  • Clinton gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain. She beats Thompson 50 - 36 percent and Romney 51 -36 percent;
  • Giuliani beats Obama 45 - 39 percent and gets 43 percent to Edwards' 42 percent.
Clinton is running away with the Democratic primary, leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 15 percent, up from 41 - 14 percent October 10. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 11 percent.

Giuliani leads the Republican field with 29 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 12 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 11 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 7 percent.

Pennsylvania voters give Giuliani a 45 - 28 percent favorability rating. Clinton gets a 47 - 43 percent favorability rating.

Clinton has the Democratic nomination "locked up," 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters, including 34 percent of Democrats, say.

Only 15 percent of voters, including 12 percent of Republicans, say Giuliani has the Republican nomination "locked up."

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 66 - 29 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. But voters disagree 61 - 34 percent with the assumption that no Republican can win next year's presidential election because of President Bush and the war in Iraq. Democrats agree 50 - 44 percent, while Republicans disagree 77 - 20 percent and independent voters disagree 62 - 32 percent.

From October 31 - November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,019 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 406 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, and 443 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Biden 3% 3% 3% Clinton 48 40 53 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 16 8 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 3 - Obama 15 18 14 Richardson 2 3 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 DK/NA 15 13 16

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................................
                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007  
                                                                              
Biden                    3       5       4       2       5       3       2    
Clark                   na      na      na      na      na       -       -    
Clinton                 48      41      42      35      32      33      36    
Dodd                     -       -       -       -       1       -       -    
Edwards                 11      11       8      10       7      11      13    
Gore                    na      na      13      12      16      16      14    
Gravel                   -       -       -       -       -       -       -    
Kucinich                 1       3       1       1       1       1       1    
Obama                   15      14      12      19      18      13      14    
Richardson               2       3       1       2       2       3       2    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2       2       2       4       2    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       2       2       1       1    
DK/NA                   15      18      16      15      15      16      16    




1a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all? ?

                        Tot     Men     Wom
                            
Very likely             11%     13%      9%
Smwht likely            41      44      38
Not too likely          20      16      22
Not likely at all       28      26      30
DK/NA                    1       1       1




2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
                            
Giuliani                29%     28%     31%
Huckabee                 6       8       4
Hunter                   1       -       1
McCain                  12      10      13
Paul                     4       6       2
Romney                   7       9       5
Tancredo                 -       -       -
Thompson, F.            11      14       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       5
DK/NA                   23      17      29


TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................
                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007  
                                                                              
Brownback               na       -       2       1       1       1       1    
Gilmore                 na      na      na       -       1       -       -    
Gingrich                na      na       9       9       5       8      10    
Giuliani                29      32      31      29      29      28      29    
Hagel                   na      na      na      na      na       -       1    
Huckabee                 6       2       2       1       1       1       2    
Hunter                   1       1       -       1       -       -       -    
McCain                  12      13      13      16      15      11      17    
Pataki                  na      na      na      na      na       1       1    
Paul                     4       4       2       3       -       1       -    
Romney                   7       8       7       3       3       9       5    
Tancredo                 -       -       1       -       -       1       -    
Thompson, F.            11      13       8      14      15      10       6    
Thompson, T.            na      na      na       1       1       -       1    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       2       2       3       2       2    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       2       4       3       3       3    
DK/NA                   23      20      23      16      24      23      21    




2a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?

                        Tot     Men     Wom


Very likely 14% 13% 15% Smwht likely 51 52 51 Not too likely 19 20 18 Not likely at all 14 14 14 DK/NA 2 - 3



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 45% 8% 80% 42% 39% 50% Giuliani 43 83 11 41 50 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 3 DK/NA 7 4 6 9 6 8

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 45 48 46 45 45 43 43 Giuliani 43 42 44 44 45 47 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 5 6 6 5 6 6



4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Obama 39% 12% 63% 42% 41% 38% Giuliani 45 75 23 38 47 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 6 4 5 DK/NA 10 9 9 10 6 13

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007  


Obama 39 43 40 39 43 40 41 Giuliani 45 45 45 45 44 45 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 9 10 9 10 12



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Edwards 42% 11% 69% 43% 42% 42% Giuliani 43 75 18 41 46 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 4 3 5 DK/NA 9 9 9 9 7 11

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Mar 29  Mar 7
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007 


Edwards 42 43 43 39 35 Giuliani 43 44 45 48 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 9 9 7 9 9



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 45% 8% 78% 41% 37% 52% McCain 43 82 12 44 51 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 5 5 3 DK/NA 7 4 6 8 5 8

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26  Mar 29
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 45 48 47 46 45 43 44 McCain 43 41 41 42 43 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 7 5 7 6 7 8 8



7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 50% 12% 81% 51% 44% 55% Thompson 36 74 8 32 42 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 7 3 6 6 5 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 6 8

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 50 50 50 50 49 50 47 Thompson, F. 36 39 36 38 38 36 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 7 6 8 8 8 9 12



8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 51% 11% 84% 52% 44% 56% Romney 36 74 7 32 41 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 3 6 5 4 DK/NA 7 7 5 8 7 8

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Mar 29  Mar 7   Feb 8
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007


Clinton 51 49 50 49 46 53 Romney 36 37 35 35 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 8 9 11 11 9



9. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 47% 13% 80% 44% 41% 53% Unfavorable 43 83 12 42 51 37 Hvn't hrd enough 8 3 7 12 7 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007 


Favorable 47 51 51 51 48 50 48 Unfavorable 43 42 41 40 42 44 42 Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 6 5 7 5 7 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 3 2 3



10. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 45% 63% 30% 45% 47% 43% Unfavorable 28 12 39 31 31 25 Hvn't hrd enough 24 20 29 20 18 29 REFUSED 4 6 1 5 4 4

TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007  


Favorable 45 51 52 54 53 53 57 Unfavorable 28 30 28 25 27 28 22 Hvn't hrd enough 24 16 17 17 17 17 18 REFUSED 4 3 4 3 3 2 3



11. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination for President locked up?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 36% 39% 34% 35% 37% 35% No 53 50 56 56 54 52 DK/NA 11 11 10 9 8 13



12. Do you think Rudy Giuliani has the Republican nomination for President locked up?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 15% 12% 16% 15% 13% 16% No 72 78 67 76 77 69 DK/NA 13 10 17 8 10 16



13. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate for President, would you say you would vote for her, you might vote for her, or you would not vote for her under any circumstances?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Would vote for her 36% 9% 67% 29% 28% 44% Might vote for her 21 9 24 31 24 18 W'Not vote for her 41 82 8 37 46 36 DK/NA 2 - 1 3 2 2



14. If Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate for President, would you say you would vote for him, you might vote for him, or you would not vote for him under any circumstances?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Would vote for him 27% 53% 11% 19% 30% 24% Might vote for him 36 33 32 44 35 38 W'Not vote for him 33 10 53 32 31 34 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 4



17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 54% 48% 62% 56% 54% 55% Disapprove 31 36 26 34 36 27 DK/NA 14 17 12 10 10 18

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Nov 8   Aug 22  May 30  Mar 28  Feb 7   Jul 13  Apr 22
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2005*   2004


Approve 54 58 56 59 59 60 47 Disapprove 31 32 34 29 33 30 36 DK/NA 14 10 11 12 8 10 17



18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 49% 42% 57% 51% 48% 50% Disapprove 21 29 15 19 24 18 DK/NA 30 29 28 30 28 32

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 49% on 8/22/07 & 2/7/2007)
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Nov 8   Aug 22  May 30  Mar 28  Feb 7   Nov 8   Mar 28
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007*   2007


Approve 49 49 47 46 49 49 46 Disapprove 21 23 21 18 19 21 18 DK/NA 30 28 32 35 32 30 35



19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 29% 63% 5% 22% 31% 28% Disapprove 66 31 91 74 65 66 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 5 5

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* Also 29% on 5/31/07)
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Nov 8   Aug 23  May 31  Mar 29  Feb 8   Jun 5   Nov 8
                        2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2002    2007*


Approve 29 30 29 33 33 73 29 Disapprove 66 67 67 62 62 21 66 DK/NA 5 3 4 5 4 6 5



20. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It doesn't make any difference who the Republicans nominate for President because the Democrats are going to win because of President Bush and the war in Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Agree 34% 20% 50% 32% 34% 34% Disagree 61 77 44 62 62 60 DK/NA 5 3 7 6 4 6