February 27, 2008 - Young Voters Help Obama Narrow Gap In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; McCain Runs Neck And Neck Against Either Democrat

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Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 52 - 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14.

In a general election matchup, Sen. Clinton has 44 percent to 42 percent of registered voters for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner. Sen. Obama has 42 percent to Sen. McCain's 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 - 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 - 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 - 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 - 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 - 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 - 39 percent.

This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.

"Sen. Obama is closing in fast on Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania, but it will probably be the voters in Ohio and Texas who decide what role the Keystone primary will play in the 2008 presidential election. If Sen. Clinton survives next week to fight another day, Pennsylvania could become the last battleground of the long Democratic contest. But an Obama win in Texas and Ohio would make it difficult for Clinton to halt her rival's momentum," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain is within striking distance of either Democratic candidate at this time in Pennsylvania, an indication that the likely Republican nominee, particularly popular in a state with a large veteran population, will make the Keystone State a battleground in the November election," Richards added.

By a 50 - 27 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of McCain. Clinton gets a split 46 - 44 percent favorability rating while Obama gets a 49 - 26 percent score. Bush Approval

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 65 - 30 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, one of his lowest scores ever in the state. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 59 - 35 percent.

The U.S. economy is in a recession, voters say 60 - 35 percent, but 60 percent say their personal finances are "excellent" or "good," while 39 percent say their finances are "not so good" or "poor."

From February 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,872 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey includes 506 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes "Leaners".
                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 49%     43%     53%     56%     23%     48%     61%
Obama                   43      50      39      37      69      45      31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       -       1       -       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    7       4       9       7       8       6       8
 
                        Age     Age     No col College
                        18-44   45+     degree degree
 
Clinton                 41%     52%     52%     41%
Obama                   58      39      39      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    1       8       8       5
 
TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
                        LIKELY DP VOTERS
                        Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008
 
Clinton                 49      52
Obama                   43      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -
DK/NA                    7      11
 
 
1a.(If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                        LIKELY DP VOTERS.....
                        Tot     Clinton Obama
 
Made up                 75%     74%     76%
Might change            24      25      24
DK/NA                    1       1       1
 
 
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Clinton                 44%      6%     80%     40%     37%     50%     80%
McCain                  42      81       9      42      48      36      12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2       7       5       4       1
DK/NA                    8       7       8       9       8       9       5
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Clinton                 43%     74%     43%     46%     31%     46%     33%
McCain                  48      16      40      42      50      42      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       1       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       6       3       4       3       6
DK/NA                    5       7      10       7      13       7      10
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Feb 27  Feb 14  Dec 5   Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Jun 27
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Clinton                 44      46      43      45      48      47      46
McCain                  42      40      43      43      41      41      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       3       1       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                    8       9       8       7       5       7       6
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Obama                   42%     13%     69%     41%     39%     44%     72%
McCain                  40      75      15      36      45      36      15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       2       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       5       4       4       3
DK/NA                   12       8      10      17      10      14       8
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Obama                   49%     70%     34%     47%     35%     36%     31%
McCain                  39      17      43      38      41      45      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       3       6       2       6       5       6
DK/NA                    8       9      16      12      16      12      13
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Feb 27  Feb 14  Oct 10  Aug 23  Jun 27  May 31  Apr 26
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   42      42      45      43      44      41      43
McCain                  40      41      41      40      39      42      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       2       3       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       4       5       4       5       2
DK/NA                   12      11       8      11      11      11      13
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Favorable               46%     15%     74%     45%     38%     53%     75%
Unfavorable             44      77      15      44      52      36      18
Hvn't hrd enough         7       5       9       7       7       8       5
REFUSED                  3       3       3       3       3       3       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Favorable               45%     68%     47%     46%     35%     49%     38%
Unfavorable             47      23      44      45      51      39      49
Hvn't hrd enough         7       7       8       6      10       7       7
REFUSED                  1       2       1       3       4       5       5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Feb 27  Dec 5   Nov 8   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               46      49      47      51      51      51      48
Unfavorable             44      43      43      42      41      40      42
Hvn't hrd enough         7       6       8       4       6       5       7
REFUSED                  3       2       2       3       2       3       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Favorable               49%     31%     63%     53%     48%     50%     67%
Unfavorable             26      44      16      19      31      23      15
Hvn't hrd enough        22      23      19      26      20      25      16
REFUSED                  2       2       2       2       2       3       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Favorable               52%     73%     46%     54%     44%     33%     43%
Unfavorable             24      10      27      26      28      34      30
Hvn't hrd enough        22      15      25      18      26      30      24
REFUSED                  2       2       2       2       2       2       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Feb 27  Dec 5   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               49      47      48      46      47      46      44
Unfavorable             26      23      22      23      23      20      19
Hvn't hrd enough        22      27      28      29      27      33      34
REFUSED                  2       3       2       2       2       2       3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Favorable               50%     70%     33%     53%     55%     45%     35%
Unfavorable             27      17      37      23      27      26      44
Hvn't hrd enough        20      11      27      21      14      25      18
REFUSED                  3       2       3       4       3       4       3
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Favorable               50%     34%     56%     54%     46%     50%     54%
Unfavorable             27      34      25      26      28      30      22
Hvn't hrd enough        21      31      13      16      21      17      21
REFUSED                  2       1       6       3       4       4       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Feb 27  Dec 5   Oct 10  Aug 23  Aug 8   Jun 27  May 31
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               50      45      43      46      37      45      44
Unfavorable             27      27      26      30      34      28      28
Hvn't hrd enough        20      25      29      20      25      25      25
REFUSED                  3       3       2       4       3       3       2
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Approve                 30%     67%      6%     20%     33%     27%      5%
Disapprove              65      27      91      76      63      67      93
DK/NA                    5       6       3       4       3       6       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Approve                 36%      8%     29%     29%     37%     27%     37%
Disapprove              59      90      67      66      56      69      57
DK/NA                    4       2       4       5       6       4       6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 29% on 5/31/07
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Feb 27  Feb 14  Nov 8   Aug 23  May 31  Jun 5   Nov 8
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2002    2007*
 
Approve                 30      30      29      30      29      73      29
Disapprove              65      64      66      67      67      21      66
DK/NA                    5       6       5       3       4       6       5
 
 
18. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Excellent                1%      3%      -       -       2%      -       -
Good                    19      34       9      15      25      14       7
Not so good             44      44      44      43      41      46      45
Poor                    35      18      47      40      32      38      47
DK/NA                    1       1       1       2       1       1       -
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Excellent                2%      1%      1%      1%      1%      -       1%
Good                    21       7      21      23      20      21      19
Not so good             42      52      43      46      40      35      45
Poor                    35      39      34      30      39      44      33
DK/NA                    -       1       2       1       1       -       2
 
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                        Feb 27  Sep 28  Sep 16  Aug 18  Jul 14
                        2008    2004    2004    2004    2004
 
Excellent                1       2       3       2       3
Good                    19      34      36      34      37
Not so good             44      39      39      44      41
Poor                    35      23      22      20      18
DK/NA                    1       1       1       1       1
 
 
19. Would you describe your own personal financial situation as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Excellent                7%     10%      5%      7%      8%      6%      6%
Good                    53      62      48      49      56      50      50
Not so good             27      20      30      30      23      30      29
Poor                    12       5      15      14      11      12      13
DK/NA                    2       2       2       1       1       2       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Excellent                6%      5%      4%      9%      5%      8%      9%
Good                    55      40      55      59      57      50      52
Not so good             28      37      27      20      19      26      29
Poor                    10      16      13       8      17      15       9
DK/NA                    1       2       -       3       2       1       1
 
 
20. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Get better              29%     31%     27%     29%     33%     25%     24%
Get worse               12      10      11      13      12      12      11
Stay the same           58      58      60      58      54      62      61
DK/NA                    2       1       2       1       2       2       3
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Get better              30%     39%     25%     30%     28%     25%     26%
Get worse                7      12      17       8      13      12      13
Stay the same           62      48      56      59      58      62      59
DK/NA                    1       1       2       2       1       1       2
 
 
21. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Yes                     60%     38%     76%     64%     56%     64%     76%
No                      35      57      18      32      41      29      18
DK/NA                    5       5       6       4       3       7       6
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Yes                     60%     73%     59%     61%     54%     65%     56%
No                      36      21      36      36      43      29      39
DK/NA                    4       6       5       4       4       6       5
 
 
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                                                                        LklyDP
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     voters
 
Right thing             35%     72%     10%     24%     40%     30%     10%
Wrong thing             59      21      85      70      56      63      88
DK/NA                    6       7       5       5       4       8       3
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Right thing             37%     12%     30%     31%     44%     37%     44%
Wrong thing             57      86      64      63      50      60      47
DK/NA                    6       2       6       6       6       3       9
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Feb 27  Aug 23  May 31  Mar 29  Feb 8   Aug 15  Jun 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006
 
Right thing             35      34      34      38      37      36      38
Wrong thing             59      60      60      58      59      58      57
DK/NA                    6       6       6       5       4       6       6