March 18, 2008 - Clinton Widens Lead Over Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Momentum Shifts To Her, But Racial Split Grows

Word format

The momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 41 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In that survey, the momentum was with Sen. Obama who had narrowed a 52 - 36 percent gap from a February 14 poll.

In this latest survey, the split between black and white voters grows. Clinton has widened her lead among women likely Democratic primary voters and narrowed Obama's lead among men. Subgroup numbers are:
  • White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent, compared to 56 - 37 percent February 27.
  • Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent, compared to 69 - 23 percent February 27.
  • Women back Clinton 59 - 35 percent.
  • Men go 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent for Clinton, compared to February 27 when men backed him 50 - 43 percent.
  • Obama gets 50 percent of Democrats with a college degree, to Clinton's 45 percent.
  • Among voters with no college degree, Clinton leads 57 - 37 percent.
  • Voters under 45 back Obama 57 - 39 percent while voters over 45 back Clinton 60 - 34 percent.
"The momentum is clearly Sen. Clinton's as she firms up her traditional coalition of women, white males, non-college, rural and older voters in Pennsylvania. Her endorsement by Philadelphia's black Mayor, Michael Nutter, is cutting slightly into Obama's overwhelming edge among black voters, but clearly the split among black and white voters is growing," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Clinton leads in the bellwether Philadelphia suburbs by almost the same margin she leads statewide," Richards added. "And don't forget powerhouse Gov. Ed Rendell is putting all the king's horses and all the king's men into the Clinton campaign. Anything can happen in this crazy, unpredictable Democratic race, but this week, Big Mo is on Clinton's side."

By a 71 - 23 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 61 - 19 percent for Obama, contributing to Clinton's lead in the primary.

Looking at the so-called "Dream Ticket," 32 percent of Democratic likely voters prefer a Clinton-Obama ticket, while 18 percent prefer an Obama-Clinton ticket and 43 percent don't want the two contenders to run together. Obama voters are less enthusiastic about the "Dream Ticket," with 52 percent opposed, compared to 38 percent of Clinton backers who are opposed.

The economy is the single most important issue in their Democratic primary vote, 48 percent of likely voters say, while 23 percent list the war in Iraq and 18 percent list health care. Voters who list the economy favor Clinton 55 - 40 percent, while voters who list the war are split, with 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Obama.

Looking at the qualities they most want in a candidate, 37 percent of Democratic primary voters want a strong leader, while 23 percent want someone who is trustworthy; another 22 percent most want someone who shares their values and 11 percent want someone who can win in November. Those looking for a strong leader back Clinton 62 - 34 percent, while voters who want someone trustworthy support Clinton 49 - 43 percent. Voter Concerns

Pennsylvania Democrats have a number of concerns, including:
  • 82 - 15 percent that the U.S economy is in a recession;
  • 70 percent are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about being able to afford health care;
  • 67 percent are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about a major terrorist attack.
From March 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,304 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 53%     45%     59%     61%     18%     52%     68%
Obama                   41      48      35      33      76      42      26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       -       1       -       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       6       5       6       6       6       5
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     WBrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  Evangel
 
Clinton                 39%     60%     57%     45%     66%
Obama                   57      34      37      50      29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    3       6       6       5       5
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Clinton                 54%     34%     61%     52%     61%     62%     56%
Obama                   42      59      30      44      31      28      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       -       1       1       1       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    4       6       8       4       7       7       5
 
                     IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE..........
                     War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   ShrVals Leader  CanWin  Inspires
 
Clinton               47%     55%     56%     49%     53%     62%     55%     12%
Obama                 46      40      38      43      40      34      39      85
SMONE ELSE(VOL)        1       -       -       1       -       1       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)       -       -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                  6       5       6       7       7       4       7       3
 
 
TREND: If the, for 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS................
                        TOTAL.................
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 53      49      52
Obama                   41      43      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       7      11
 
                        MEN...................     WOMEN.................
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14     Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008       2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 45      43      49         59      53      54
Obama                   48      50      39         35      39      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       3          -       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -          -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       4      10          5       9      12
 
                        WHITE.................     BLACK.................
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14     Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008       2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 61      56      58         18      23      10
Obama                   33      37      31         76      69      71
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       2          -       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -          -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       7       9          6       8      19
 
                        WHITE MEN.............     WHITE WOMEN...........
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14     Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008       2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 52      48      52         68      61      62
Obama                   42      45      36         26      31      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       3          -       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -          -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       6       8          5       8      10
 
                        AGE 18-44.............     AGE 45+...............
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14     Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008       2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 39      41      52         60      52      51
Obama                   57      58      41         34      39      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       -          1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -          -       -       -
DK/NA                    3       1       7          6       8      12
 
                        NO COLLEGE DEGREE.....     COLLEGE DEGREE........
                        Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14     Mar 18  Feb 27  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008       2008    2008    2008
 
Clinton                 57      52      57         45      41      40
Obama                   37      39      28         50      53      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       2          1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -          -       -       -
DK/NA                    6       8      13          5       5       6
 
 
2. (If "Clinton" q1) At some point in the campaign, did you support Barack Obama? (*subgroup too small for accurate analysis).
                        CLINTON SUPPORTERS Q1..............................
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk*    Men     Wom
 
Yes                     17%     16%     18%     17%     --      16%     17%
No                      81      82      80      81      --      82      81
DK/NA                    2       3       2       2      --       2       2
 
 
3. (If "Obama" q1) At some point in the campaign, did you support Hillary Clinton?
                        OBAMA SUPPORTERS Q1................................
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Yes                     28%     27%     30%     25%     36%     23%     27%
No                      71      73      68      75      62      76      72
DK/NA                    1       -       2       -       3       -       -
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Favorable               71%     65%     75%     74%     56%     69%     79%
Unfavorable             23      28      19      21      30      26      16
Hvn't hrd enough         4       5       4       3       7       4       3
REFUSED                  2       2       2       1       7       1       2
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     WBrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  Evangel
 
Favorable               63%     74%     72%     68%     69%
Unfavorable             33      19      21      27      24
Hvn't hrd enough         4       4       4       4       6
REFUSED                  -       3       3       2       1
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Favorable               70%     66%     77%     71%     74%     72%     70%
Unfavorable             24      24      17      24      17      22      26
Hvn't hrd enough         5       5       2       3       7       5       2
REFUSED                  1       5       4       2       2       1       2
 
                     IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE..........
                     War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   ShrVals Leader  CanWin  Inspires
 
Favorable             70%     72%     72%     64%     71%     76%     84%     41%
Unfavorable           22      22      19      27      24      18      12      50
Hvn't hrd enough       3       3       8       6       3       5       2       4
REFUSED                4       2       1       2       3       1       3       6
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                        CAND OF CHOICE Q1
                        Clinton Obama
 
Favorable               96%     40%
Unfavorable              2      52
Hvn't hrd enough         3       5
REFUSED                  -       4
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Favorable               61%     63%     60%     57%     80%     60%     54%
Unfavorable             19      17      20      22       5      19      24
Hvn't hrd enough        17      18      16      18      13      19      18
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       1       2       4
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     WBrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  Evangel
 
Favorable               74%     56%     55%     76%     45
Unfavorable             13      21      22      12      25
Hvn't hrd enough        11      20      20      10      27
REFUSED                  2       3       3       2       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Favorable               61%     72%     49%     71%     53%     51%     62%
Unfavorable             23      13      22      11      21      27      22
Hvn't hrd enough        15      13      26      16      20      18      15
REFUSED                  2       3       2       2       5       5       1
 
                     IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE..........
                     War     Econ    HlthCr  Trust   ShrVals Leader  CanWin  Inspires
 
Favorable             67%     62%     60%     57%     60%     58%     70%     92%
Unfavorable           15      19      17      22      17      22      15       1
Hvn't hrd enough      15      17      21      19      19      18      11       7
REFUSED                3       3       2       2       4       2       3       -
 
                        CAND OF CHOICE Q1
                        Clinton Obama
 
Favorable               38%     93%
Unfavorable             33       2
Hvn't hrd enough        25       5
REFUSED                  3       -
 
 
6. Some people have suggested that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton should run together in the general election for President in November. It could be a Clinton-Obama ticket, with Clinton running for President and Obama for Vice-President, or it could be an Obama-Clinton ticket, with Obama running for President and Clinton for Vice-President. Which would you rather see; a Clinton-Obama ticket, or an Obama-Clinton ticket, or would you rather they not run together?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Clinton-Obama ticket    32%     24%     38%     35%     17%     27%     42%
Obama-Clinton ticket    18      20      17      12      44      15      10
Not run together        43      49      39      46      31      51      42
DK/NA                    7       7       6       6       8       7       6
 
                        CAND OF CHOICE Q1
                        Clinton Obama
 
Clinton-Obama ticket    57%      2%
Obama-Clinton ticket     1      43
Not run together        38      52
DK/NA                    5       3
 
 
7. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Democratic primary for President this year;
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Terrorism                3%      2%      4%      3%      3%      2%      4%
The war in Iraq         23      23      23      22      28      22      22
The economy             48      52      45      50      41      54      47
Illegal immigration      3       2       3       3       -       3       3
Health care             18      16      20      17      24      14      19
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      3       3       2       3       2       4       2
DK/NA                    2       1       3       2       2       2       3
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     WBrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  Evangel
 
Terrorism                2%      3%      4%      2%      3%
The war in Iraq         17      26      23      23      16
The economy             53      46      47      50      55
Illegal immigration      3       3       3       2       6
Health care             20      17      19      16      16
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      4       2       2       4       2
DK/NA                    1       3       3       2       2
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Terrorism                3%      7%      4%      2%      2%      3%      1%
The war in Iraq         23      28      20      20      19      20      26
The economy             42      37      51      53      56      48      51
Illegal immigration      4       -       4       -       4       3       5
Health care             23      23      19      19      16      20      10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      3       3       1       3       1       3       4
DK/NA                    4       2       1       3       1       2       2
 
                        IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE..........
                        Trust   ShrVals Leader  CanWin  Inspires
 
Terrorism                3%      3%      4%      1%      1%
The war in Iraq         26      23      19      30      34
The economy             48      44      50      53      45
Illegal immigration      4       3       2       -       1
Health care             16      20      20      14      18
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      2       6       2       1       1
DK/NA                    1       2       3       1       -
 
                        CAND OF CHOICE Q1
                        Clinton Obama
 
Terrorism                4%      2%
The war in Iraq         20      26
The economy             50      47
Illegal immigration      3       3
Health care             19      17
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      2       4
DK/NA                    2       2
 
 
8. When you decide how to vote in the democratic primary for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate;
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Trustworthy             23%     24%     22%     23%     21%     24%     23%
Shares your values      22      20      24      22      26      20      23
A strong leader         37      32      41      37      39      33      40
Can win in November     11      13       9      11       8      14       9
Inspiring                5       7       3       5       5       7       3
DK/NA                    2       3       2       2       -       2       2
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     WBrnAgn
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  Evangel
 
Trustworthy             18%     24%     27%     14%     31%
Shares your values      26      20      21      24      21
A strong leader         35      39      37      37      36
Can win in November     11      11       9      14       7
Inspiring                6       5       3       8       4
DK/NA                    4       2       3       2       -
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Trustworthy             27%     18%     20%     16%     30%     28%     26%
Shares your values      20      19      24      24      17      25      23
A strong leader         31      43      46      36      40      35      32
Can win in November     15      10       4      14       7       8      11
Inspiring                5       7       2       6       5       3       5
DK/NA                    1       2       3       5       1       1       3
 
                        IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE...............
                        Ter     War     Econ    Immig   HlthCr
 
Trustworthy             23%     26%     23%     35%     20%
Shares your values      18      22      20      27      23
A strong leader         48      30      39      28      41
Can win in November      4      14      12       1       8
Inspiring                2       7       5       3       5
DK/NA                    6       -       2       6       3
 
                        CAND OF CHOICE Q1
                        Clinton Obama
 
Trustworthy             21%     24%
Shares your values      22      21
A strong leader         43      31
Can win in November     11      10
Inspiring                1      10
DK/NA                    2       3
 
 
9. Which best describes your family's financial situation - getting ahead, falling behind, or holding steady?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Getting ahead           19%     18%     19%     16%     29%     15%     16%
Falling behind          19      20      17      20      14      22      17
Holding steady          62      61      63      64      56      62      66
DK/NA                    1       1       -       1       1       -       1
 
 
10. How worried are you about being able to afford the cost of your health care over the next few years? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Very worried            36%     35%     37%     34%     45%     34%     35%
Smwht worried           34      34      34      36      26      37      35
Not too worried         19      19      19      19      15      19      20
Not at all worried      10      11      10      10      13      10      10
DK/NA                    -       -       -       -       2       -       -
 
 
11. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Yes                     82%     82%     81%     82%     79%     81%     82%
No                      15      14      15      15      18      16      14
DK/NA                    4       3       4       4       3       3       4
 
 
12. What do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants working in the United States - A) Should they be offered a chance to apply for citizenship, OR B) Should they be allowed to stay as temporary workers, OR C) Should they be deported to the country they came from?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
A) Citizenship          49%     47%     51%     47%     57%     45%     49%
B) Temporary workers    20      19      20      19      22      18      20
C) Deported             27      30      25      29      19      32      26
DK/NA                    4       4       4       5       1       4       5
 
 
13. What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
A) Withdraw all troops  32%     27%     35%     28%     46%     27%     30%
B) Set a timetable      53      53      53      56      42      54      57
C) As long as needed    13      17       9      13      10      16      11
DK/NA                    3       3       2       3       2       3       3
 
 
14. How worried are you that there will be another major terrorist attack in the United States? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                                Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Very worried            19%     14%     22%     17%     25%     13%     20%
Smwht worried           48      47      49      50      41      46      53
Not too worried         24      28      22      25      23      29      21
Not at all worried       8      10       6       8      10      10       6
DK/NA                    1       1       1       1       1       1       1