April 21, 2008 - Clinton Leads Obama By 7 Points In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

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New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 51 - 44 percent among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 50 - 44 percent last week, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A look at other subgroups shows:
  • Women back Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while men are for Obama 53 - 42 percent;
  • White Catholics are for Clinton 66 - 29 percent;
  • Voters under 45 go with Obama 57 - 41, while older voters back Clinton 54 - 40 percent.
"Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama got off message after his 'bitter' remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads - and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most." From April 18 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,027 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes "Leaners".
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..............................
                                                                Reagan  Union
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Dems    HsHolds
 
Clinton                 51%     42%     57%     57%     10%     49%     57%
Obama                   44      53      38      38      84      44      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       -       1       -       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    4       4       5       4       6       5       6
 
                        Alghny  Philly  NthEst  SthEst  NthWst  SthWst  Cntrl
 
Clinton                 50%     41%     69%     46%     52%     68%     44%
Obama                   44      54      29      50      43      26      50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       -       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    4       5       2       4       5       6       5
 
                        Age     Age     No col  Col     INCOME......    White
                        18-44   45+     degree  degree  <50k    >50k    Cath
 
Clinton                 41%     54%     55%     41%     54%     48%     66%
Obama                   57      40      40      55      40      49      29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       1       -       -       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    2       5       5       3       6       3       4
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..............................
                                                                Reagan  Union
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Dems    HsHolds
 
Favorable               70%     63%     75%     72%     52%     61%     75%
Unfavorable             24      29      21      22      42      30      21
Hvn't hrd enough         3       5       2       3       5       6       3
REFUSED                  3       3       3       3       2       2       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..............................
                                                                Reagan  Union
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Dems    HsHolds
 
Favorable               65%     70%     61%     61%     93%     61%     55%
Unfavorable             21      18      23      23       2      22      26
Hvn't hrd enough        12      11      13      13       5      14      17
REFUSED                  2       1       3       2       -       2       2