July 13, 2010 - Independents Key As Corbett Leads In Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Approve Of Arizona Immigration Law 2-1

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Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, the Republican candidate for Governor, has a 44 - 37 percent lead over Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, the Democrat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 43 - 37 percent Corbett lead in a May 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, independent voters back Corbett 44 - 29 percent, as do Republicans 86 - 4 percent. Democrats back Onorato 69 - 13 percent.

Pennsylvania voters say 47 - 34 percent they want the state to adopt an immigration law similar to that of Arizona. Voters approve 52 - 27 percent of the Arizona law and by 60 - 27 percent they think the Obama Administration's lawsuit to block its implementation is a bad idea.

"With the primaries out of the way, Attorney General Tom Corbett enters the general election phase of the campaign with a 7-point lead. He is better known than Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and voters have more confidence in his ability to right things in Harrisburg," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Corbett is viewed favorably by 44 percent of voters, unfavorably by 11 percent, with 44 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Onorato gets a 31 - 16 percent favorability, with 52 percent who have not yet formed an opinion. Among independent voters, often the key to Pennsylvania elections, Corbett is viewed favorably 43 - 10 percent to Onorato's 27 - 15 percent.

Voters say Corbett is better able than Onorato to deal with two key issues:
  • 45 - 31 percent that Corbett is the better candidate to bring reform to Harrisburg;
  • 44 - 32 percent that Corbett is better able to fix the state's economy.
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 42 percent of the job Gov. Ed Rendell is doing. Voters also say 55 - 32 percent they don't want the next governor to continue Gov. Rendell's policies.

"The sour taste that Gov. Ed Rendell has left in voters' mouths is probably not helpful to Onorato," said Brown.

On immigration, Pennsylvania voters say 72 - 21 percent that reform should move more in the direction of stricter enforcement rather than integration of illegal immigrants into American society. And by 44 - 39 percent they do not think the Arizona law will lead to discrimination against Hispanics.

"Pennsylvanians like the Arizona law and don't like President Obama's decision to ask the courts to throw it out. In fact, a plurality would like to see a similar law in their own state," said Brown.

Pennsylvania's Sen. Arlen Specter gets a decidedly negative 35 - 57 percent approval rating on his job performance, his worst score ever. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., gets a 48 - 29 percent thumbs up from voters.

From July 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Onorato              37%     4%    69%    29%    29%    43%    43%
Corbett              44     86     13     44     51     38     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                18     10     17     25     17     18     14
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Onorato              53%    59%    28%    37%    31%    32%    27%
Corbett              34     15     46     40     54     48     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      -      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      1      1      1      2      1
DK/NA                13     24     24     22     14     16     12
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Sep 30
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009
Onorato              37      37      33      32      30      28
Corbett              44      43      45      42      45      47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       1       1       1       1
DK/NA                18      19      21      24      22      24
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Favorable            31%    16%    47%    27%    29%    34%    40%
Unfavorable          16     27      7     15     20     12     17
Hvn't hrd enough     52     56     44     57     50     53     41
REFUSED               1      -      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Favorable            59%    32%    21%    29%    34%    42%    21%
Unfavorable          24      5     11     12     21     27     15
Hvn't hrd enough     14     61     66     58     45     31     62
REFUSED               4      2      2      1      -      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Sep 30  Jul 21
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Favorable            31      34      21      20      18      17      16
Unfavorable          16      13      11       8       9      11       6
Hvn't hrd enough     52      51      66      71      72      71      78
REFUSED               1       1       2       1       1       2       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Favorable            44%    67%    28%    43%    50%    39%    50%
Unfavorable          11      3     17     10     11     11     15
Hvn't hrd enough     44     29     54     46     38     49     34
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1      1
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Favorable            46%    18%    48%    42%    44%    55%    50%
Unfavorable          14     14     15      9     10      6      9
Hvn't hrd enough     38     64     36     48     44     39     40
REFUSED               1      4      1      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Sep 30  Jul 21
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009
Favorable            44      49      47      43      43      43      38
Unfavorable          11      13      13       7       6       7       6
Hvn't hrd enough     44      36      38      48      50      49      55
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       1       1       1
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              42%    24%    62%    35%    37%    45%    48%
Disapprove           50     70     29     56     57     44     48
DK/NA                 8      6      9      9      6     10      3
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Approve              37%    68%    37%    60%    28%    30%    29%
Disapprove           52     26     50     34     65     59     64
DK/NA                11      6     13      6      7     11      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Feb 7   Jul 21  Jul 21
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2007    2009    2009
Approve              42      40      45      43      61      39      39
Disapprove           50      51      45      49      30      53      53
DK/NA                 8       9      10       8       9       8       8
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              28%    21%    35%    27%    27%    28%    33%
Disapprove           57     63     50     60     64     51     56
DK/NA                15     16     15     13      9     20     10
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Approve              26%    33%    26%    37%    21%    32%    21%
Disapprove           58     55     61     49     61     53     63
DK/NA                16     13     13     14     17     14     16
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Apr 10  May 13
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2003    2010*
Approve              28      25      31      29      25      49      25
Disapprove           57      59      54      59      64      24      59
DK/NA                15      16      14      12      11      27      16
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              35%    15%    54%    33%    33%    37%    40%
Disapprove           57     80     36     59     62     52     55
DK/NA                 8      5     10      7      5     11      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 2   Dec 18  Nov 26  Jul 13
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2008    2010
Approve              35      38      44      48      47      62      35
Disapprove           57      51      47      45      45      25      57
DK/NA                 8      11       9       6       8      13       8
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              48%    37%    62%    43%    48%    48%    59%
Disapprove           29     42     17     31     35     24     22
DK/NA                23     20     21     26     17     28     19
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 2   Dec 18  May 28  Mar 28
                     2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2007
Approve              48      47      48      53      53      56      46
Disapprove           29      30      30      29      29      21      18
DK/NA                23      23      22      18      18      23      35
 
 
18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Very satisfied        3%     2%     4%     3%     4%     2%     1%
Smwht satisfied      37     24     52     29     32     41     36
Smwht dissatisfied   38     43     28     48     39     37     44
Very dissatisfied    21     29     14     19     24     19     19
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      1      2      1
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Very satisfied        4%     6%     2%     3%     2%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      35     53     32     44     34     34     30
Smwht dissatisfied   31     27     38     41     39     44     41
Very dissatisfied    26     14     27     11     24     20     26
DK/NA                 3      -      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 39% Sep 2009)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Sep 30  Jun 5   Mar 3
                     2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2002    2010*
Very satisfied        3       4       2       4       2       8       2
Smwht satisfied      37      42      37      38      37      60      37
Smwht dissatisfied   38      34      37      38      36      22      37
Very dissatisfied    21      19      23      19      23       8      23
DK/NA                 1       1       1       2       1       3       1
 
 
19. Would you like Pennsylvania's next governor to continue Ed Rendell's policies or not?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Yes                  32%    17%    50%    26%    29%    35%    38%
No                   55     74     36     60     62     49     56
DK/NA                12      8     14     14      9     15      6
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Yes                  28%    62%    25%    48%    22%    17%    23%
No                   58     28     59     42     65     71     65
DK/NA                15     10     16     11     13     12     12
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think will be better able to bring reform to Harrisburg, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Onorato              31%     9%    55%    23%    27%    35%    33%
Corbett              45     77     21     43     51     39     46
NO DIFF(VOL)          3      2      2      4      5      2      2
DK/NA                21     11     21     29     17     24     19
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Onorato              44%    45%    26%    32%    29%    31%    23%
Corbett              38     25     48     41     47     50     56
NO DIFF(VOL)          5      1      3      3      3      5      2
DK/NA                13     29     23     24     20     14     19
 
 
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think will do a better job fixing Pennsylvania's economy, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Onorato              32%    12%    56%    22%    29%    34%    39%
Corbett              44     74     20     44     50     39     40
NO DIFF(VOL)          4      3      4      5      4      4      4
DK/NA                20     11     19     28     16     23     17
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Onorato              50%    42%    23%    37%    29%    31%    22%
Corbett              33     25     50     39     51     51     54
NO DIFF(VOL)          6      5      1      3      4      3      4
DK/NA                12     28     26     21     16     15     20
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling - the economy?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              35%    19%    53%    28%    33%    36%    39%
Disapprove           58     75     38     63     62     54     57
DK/NA                 8      5      9      8      5     10      4
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Approve              35%    52%    27%    54%    28%    23%    23%
Disapprove           56     36     65     41     67     71     68
DK/NA                 9     12      8      5      5      6      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   Dec 17  Sep 30  Mar 25  Jul 21
                     2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009    2009
Approve              35      37      36      38      34      44      33
Disapprove           58      53      53      54      60      43      60
DK/NA                 8      11      11       8       7      14       7
 
 
29. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Integration          21%     9%    31%    20%    20%    23%    22%
Enforcement          72     87     60     74     75     70     75
DK/NA                 6      4      9      5      5      7      3
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Integration          21%    45%    19%    29%    11%    14%    13%
Enforcement          65     48     79     65     84     81     81
DK/NA                14      7      2      6      4      6      5
 
TREND: Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
                     Jul 13  Dec 5
                     2010    2007
Integration          21      19
Enforcement          72      72
DK/NA                 6       9
 
 
30. Based on what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of Arizona's new immigration law?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Approve              52%    70%    34%    56%    60%    44%    57%
Disapprove           27     14     39     25     25     29     24
DK/NA                21     16     27     19     15     27     20
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Approve              49%    28%    59%    49%    56%    53%    60%
Disapprove           28     48     24     37     23     19     17
DK/NA                23     24     17     15     21     28     23
 
 
31. Would you want Pennsylvania to pass a law similar to Arizona's new immigration law or not?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Yes                  47%    64%    31%    52%    54%    41%    55%
No                   34     22     45     32     33     35     27
DK/NA                19     14     24     17     13     24     18
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Yes                  45%    22%    52%    43%    48%    54%    57%
No                   38     53     32     43     32     23     23
DK/NA                16     25     16     14     20     23     20
 
 
32. Do you think Arizona's new immigration law will or will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Will                 39%    22%    52%    38%    38%    40%    37%
Will not             44     62     28     47     52     37     45
DK/NA                17     17     20     15     10     23     18
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Will                 42%    62%    37%    44%    29%    30%    31%
Will not             43     18     48     46     51     47     49
DK/NA                15     20     15      9     19     23     20
 
 
33. Some have suggested that Arizona should be boycotted because of its new immigration law. Do you think a boycott of Arizona is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Good idea             8%     4%    14%     5%     8%     9%     7%
Bad idea             82     88     73     87     84     79     82
DK/NA                10      8     13      8      8     12     12
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Good idea            10%    28%     4%     7%     6%     4%     4%
Bad idea             82     53     85     83     85     84     90
DK/NA                 8     19     11     10      9     13      6
 
 
34. The Obama administration has filed a lawsuit to strike down Arizona's immigration law. Do you think this lawsuit is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds
Good idea            27%     8%    43%    26%    27%    27%    24%
Bad idea             60     82     40     63     64     57     64
DK/NA                12     10     16     11      8     16     13
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Good idea            29%    43%    27%    34%    23%    18%    20%
Bad idea             58     44     63     57     63     64     68
DK/NA                13     13     10      9     14     18     13