June 15, 2011 - Santorum Trails Romney, Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Casey Runs Strong, But Short Of 50 Percent Mark

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Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Keystone State Republicans and trails President Barack Obama 49 - 38 percent in an early look at the 2012 presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Romney leads the Republican primary pack with 21 percent, followed by Santorum with 16 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 17 percent of Republicans are undecided.

In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum.

Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th.

Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today.

"Whether it's still the Osama bin Laden bounce or because voters are taking a closer look at the alternatives, President Barack Obama's fortunes in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state in presidential elections, has improved - at least for now," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Independent voters, a critical bloc, have shifted dramatically in the six weeks since President Obama suffered his all-time low in Pennsylvania."

"Native son Rick Santorum is not feeling the love among Pennsylvania Republicans or among voters in general," Malloy added. "But Santorum does better in a GOP primary than other more nationally-known candidates such as Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, who gets just 5 percent of the Republican vote."

Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.

Pennsylvania voters approve 47 - 26 percent of the job Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is doing, with 27 percent undecided. Republicans are split 37 - 38 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

Voters say 47 - 31 percent, including 46 - 34 percent among independent voters, that Casey deserves to be reelected in 2012.

Running against an unnamed Republican challenger, Casey wins 47 - 32 percent, including 44 - 26 percent among independent voters.

"You can't beat somebody with nobody and right now nobody is emerging as a possible Republican challenger to Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.," Malloy said.

"Pennsylvania voters like their senior senator, but more than one-in-four are undecided. And in three measures, job approval, deserves reelection and Casey v. nobody, Casey is short of that magic 50 percent mark that allows incumbents to sleep more comfortably at night."

First-term Sen. Pat Toomey has a 45 - 28 percent approval rating.

From June 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 523 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Palin                11%    12%    11%
Gingrich              5      7      3
Romney               21     18     24
Pawlenty              4      4      3
Bachmann              5      8      3
Johnson               -      1      -
Santorum             16     15     18
Paul                  6      8      5
Huntsman              1      2      -
Cain                  8      8      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3
DK/NA                17     14     20
 
 
2. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Obama                49%    10%    85%    46%    44%    53%    53%
Santorum             38     79      5     35     42     35     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      5      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      1      6      5      2      3
DK/NA                 7      6      7      7      6      7      8
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Obama                55%    81%    41%    56%    36%    48%    35%
Santorum             31     12     44     34     46     38     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      5      3      3      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      5      3      6      4      4
DK/NA                11      6      6      4      9      6      7
 
 
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Obama                47%     9%    86%    41%    41%    52%    53%
Romney               40     84      7     37     44     37     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      7      4      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      1      7      5      2      2
DK/NA                 6      4      6      9      6      7      8
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Obama                52%    79%    45%    54%    28%    46%    33%
Romney               39     15     40     39     54     40     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      5      2      3      1      5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      5      2      4      7      5
DK/NA                 6      5      6      3     10      7      9
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Approve              48%    11%    80%    48%    43%    52%    49%
Disapprove           48     86     16     47     54     43     47
DK/NA                 4      3      4      5      3      5      4
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Approve              53%    77%    40%    53%    37%    48%    37%
Disapprove           40     19     58     43     60     51     59
DK/NA                 7      4      3      4      3      1      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16  Jul 14  May 04  Apr 28
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2009    2011
 
Approve              48      42      51      44      46      66      42
Disapprove           48      53      44      43      49      29      53
DK/NA                 4       5       5      13       5       5       5
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Approve              47%    37%    62%    39%    45%    48%    51%
Disapprove           26     38     14     29     31     23     25
DK/NA                27     24     24     32     24     29     24
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Approve              45%    51%    45%    39%    45%    57%    48%
Disapprove           33     23     25     28     34     20     25
DK/NA                22     26     30     33     21     23     27
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16  Jul 13  May 28  Dec 16
                     2011    2011    2011    2010    2010    2009    2010
 
Approve              47      44      44      39      48      56      39
Disapprove           26      26      24      29      29      21      29
DK/NA                27      30      31      32      23      23      32
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Approve              45%    63%    37%    39%    48%    43%    40%
Disapprove           28     17     35     30     29     26     29
DK/NA                27     21     28     32     23     31     30
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Approve              47%    41%    48%    41%    43%    44%    50%
Disapprove           25     27     25     25     33     34     27
DK/NA                28     32     27     34     24     22     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              45      43      41
Disapprove           28      25      21
DK/NA                27      31      39
 
 
10. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    10%    84%    46%    44%    52%    49%
No/Does not          46     84     10     49     51     41     46
DK/NA                 6      6      6      5      5      7      5
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Yes/Deserves         53%    80%    40%    55%    32%    44%    37%
No/Does not          41     15     52     41     60     54     55
DK/NA                 6      4      8      5      9      2      7
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Jul 14
                     2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Yes/deserves         48      42      48      42
No/does not          46      52      45      48
DK/NA                 6       6       8      10
 
 
11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Casey                47%     9%    83%    44%    44%    50%    52%
Republican           32     74      3     26     37     28     27
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10      9      5     15     10      9      9
DK/NA                11      8      9     16      9     13     12
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Casey                48%    78%    46%    45%    37%    47%    37%
Republican           28      7     35     31     46     31     41
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  9      6      8     11      6     13     12
DK/NA                15      9     12     13     11      9     10
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16
                     2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Casey                47      46      45      43
Republican           32      34      35      35
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10       9       9      11
DK/NA                11      11      11      11
 
 
12. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHlds
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    26%    70%    46%    48%    47%    54%
No/Does not          31     50     12     34     36     27     28
DK/NA                21     24     18     20     17     26     18
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    65%    47%    45%    39%    50%    43%
No/Does not          35     16     28     29     40     31     37
DK/NA                17     19     25     25     21     19     20
 
TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16
                     2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Yes/deserves         47      48      46      40
No/Does not          31      31      28      33
DK/NA                21      21      26      27