March 13, 2013 - Pennsylvania Gov. Stuck In A Slump, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sestak Runs Best Among Possible Dem. Challengers

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Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, who has struggled with low job-approval ratings during his first two years in office, is stuck with a negative 39 - 49 percent rating, one of his lowest scores ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll release today.

This compares to a negative 36 - 42 percent job approval in a January 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, men are divided with 47 percent approving of Gov. Corbett and 44 percent disapproving. Women disapprove 53 - 33 percent. Disapproval is 74 - 13 percent among Democrats and 47 - 41 percent among independent voters, while Republicans approve 67 - 27 percent.

Pennsylvania voters say 53 - 35 percent that Corbett does not deserve reelection next year. In an early look at the 2014 governor's race former U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak tops Corbett 47 - 38 percent. Results for other possible Democratic challengers are:
  • Corbett gets 42 percent to environmentalist John Hanger's 41 percent;
  • Corbett at 40 percent to businessman Tom Knox' 39 percent;
  • Corbett gets 42 percent to State Treasurer Rob McCord's 38 percent;
  • Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski tops Corbett 44 - 38 percent;
  • U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz at 42 percent to Corbett's 39 percent;
  • State Sen. Mike Stack at 40 percent to Corbett's 39 percent;
  • Corbett and businessman Tom Wolf tied 39 - 39 percent.
"It's still early, but Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett is going nowhere, and maybe even sliding a little as he prepares for what could be a tough reelection fight," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Pennsylvania voters, especially women, don't like Gov. Corbett and are ready to consider several possible Democratic challengers, especially former Congressman Joseph Sestak, Mayor Ed Pawlowski and U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz," Malloy added. "The fact that these relative unknowns top or tie Corbett signals a tough road to reelection."

Pennsylvania voters give their governor a negative 39 - 44 percent favorability rating.

Sestak gets a 27 - 14 percent favorability, with 58 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For the other possible Democratic challenges the don't know enough factor ranges from 67 percent to 89 percent.

Voters disapprove 58 - 28 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing, brushing up against the all-time low score, a 59 - 25 percent disapproval in a May 13, 2010, Quinnipiac University poll.

Voters approve 48 - 34 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. is doing and give U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey a 43 - 32 percent job approval rating.

Pennsylvania voters are divided 46 - 43 percent on whether it's a good idea or bad idea to increase the number of people in the state eligible for Medicaid.

From March 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,116 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hanger the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hanger               41%    13%    75%    29%    39%    43%
Corbett              42     75     10     47     48     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      2      3      2      2
DK/NA                13     10     13     19      9     19
 
 
2. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Knox the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Knox                 39%     6%    79%    29%    34%    43%
Corbett              40     77      9     39     49     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      4      3      4
DK/NA                16     13     10     27     12     19
 
 
3. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Rob McCord the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
McCord               38%    12%    71%    26%    33%    42%
Corbett              42     77     11     40     48     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      1      7      5      1
DK/NA                16     10     16     26     14     18
 
 
4. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Pawlowski the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Pawlowski            44%    15%    78%    29%    41%    46%
Corbett              38     73      7     44     47     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      3      2      4
DK/NA                13      8     12     22      9     17
 
 
5. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Allyson Schwartz the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Schwartz             42%    13%    77%    35%    39%    45%
Corbett              39     71      8     39     45     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                15     14     12     20     12     18
 
 
6. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Sestak               47%    16%    87%    34%    41%    53%
Corbett              38     73      7     35     46     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      1      6      3      2
DK/NA                11     11      5     22      9     13
 
 
7. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Mike Stack the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Stack                40%    15%    75%    27%    38%    42%
Corbett              39     71      5     35     45     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      4      7      3      4
DK/NA                17     11     15     30     14     20
 
 
8. (Split Sample) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Wolf the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Wolf                 39%     8%    79%    24%    36%    42%
Corbett              39     77      7     34     46     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      3      3      2      2
DK/NA                18     12     11     36     14     22
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    69%    12%    36%    45%    33%
Unfavorable          44     22     68     42     41     48
Hvn't hrd enough     14      7     18     18     11     17
REFUSED               2      2      2      4      3      2
 
                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
 
Favorable            37%    22%    43%    41%    48%    37%    41%
Unfavorable          53     50     41     41     36     45     45
Hvn't hrd enough      8     24     15     17     11     15     11
REFUSED               2      4      -      1      5      4      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jul 13  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 3   May 13  Jul 21
                     2013    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009
 
Favorable            39      44      49      47      43      49      38
Unfavorable          44      11      13      13       7      13       6
Hvn't hrd enough     14      44      36      38      48      36      55
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       2       1       1
 
 
10. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Hanger favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             6%     5%     9%     3%     8%     5%
Unfavorable           5      8      1      4      6      4
Hvn't hrd enough     89     86     90     92     86     91
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      -      -
 
 
11. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             9%     4%    15%     8%    11%     7%
Unfavorable           7      8      5      8      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough     83     88     79     84     79     87
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 13  Dec 17  Sep 30  Jul 21
                     2013    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable             9       9      10      10
Unfavorable           7       4       4       4
Hvn't hrd enough     83      87      85      85
REFUSED               -       1       1       1
 
 
12. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rob McCord favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            12%     8%    18%    10%     9%    13%
Unfavorable           5      8      5      2      8      3
Hvn't hrd enough     83     84     77     87     83     83
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1
 
 
13. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ed Pawlowski favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             9%     5%    16%     3%    10%     7%
Unfavorable           5      8      1      5      7      3
Hvn't hrd enough     87     87     83     92     83     89
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
14. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Allyson Schwartz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            22%     8%    37%    23%    19%    25%
Unfavorable          11     16      2     13     15      6
Hvn't hrd enough     67     76     61     62     65     68
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      1      -
 
 
15. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            27%    18%    40%    23%    31%    24%
Unfavorable          14     21      6     13     18     11
Hvn't hrd enough     58     61     53     64     51     64
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      -      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Low also 18% May 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jul 14  May 13  Apr 8   Mar 2   May 13  Mar 2
                     2013    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010*
 
Favorable            27      31      32      20      18      32      18
Unfavorable          14      20      14      11       6      14       6
Hvn't hrd enough     58      47      52      68      74      52      74
REFUSED               -       2       2       1       1       2       1
 
 
16. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Stack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             9%     6%    15%     6%    10%     8%
Unfavorable           4      6      1      6      6      3
Hvn't hrd enough     86     88     84     87     84     89
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      -      1
 
 
17. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Tom Wolf favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            10%     7%    16%     9%    13%     8%
Unfavorable           5      6      2      6      7      3
Hvn't hrd enough     85     87     82     85     80     88
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              39%    67%    13%    41%    47%    33%
Disapprove           49     27     74     47     44     53
DK/NA                12      7     13     12      9     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              34%    42%    37%    41%    48%    47%    39%    37%
Disapprove           57     45     51     53     43     41     52     50
DK/NA                 8     13     12      6      9     12      9     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jan 29  Nov 15  Jun 27  Jun 12  Sep 29  Jun 27
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2011    2012
 
Approve              39      36      40      35      36      50      35
Disapprove           49      42      38      50      47      32      50
DK/NA                12      23      23      15      17      18      15
 
 
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              28%    35%    18%    32%    36%    21%
Disapprove           58     49     71     55     54     62
DK/NA                14     16     12     14     10     17
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              27%    28%    24%    27%    35%    40%    26%    23%
Disapprove           58     59     60     62     52     52     60     61
DK/NA                16     13     16     10     13      8     15     16
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low also 25% Dec 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jan 29  Nov 15  Jun 12  Mar 15  Apr 10  May 13
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2003    2010*
 
Approve              28      33      36      27      29      49      25
Disapprove           58      46      43      51      54      24      59
DK/NA                14      20      21      21      17      27      16
 
 
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              48%    37%    66%    43%    45%    52%
Disapprove           34     46     19     38     40     29
DK/NA                17     16     14     18     15     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              49%    48%    50%    53%    46%    50%    48%    48%
Disapprove           35     34     35     32     38     28     37     36
DK/NA                16     18     16     15     16     22     14     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jan 29  Nov 15  Jun 12  Mar 14  May 28  Dec 16
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2009    2010
 
Approve              48      44      49      51      46      56      39
Disapprove           34      36      37      29      27      21      29
DK/NA                17      21      14      20      26      23      32
 
 
30. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              43%    58%    31%    41%    46%    39%
Disapprove           32     19     44     33     34     29
DK/NA                26     23     25     26     20     31
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              40%    44%    42%    44%    45%    43%    41%    45%
Disapprove           35     30     33     30     31     32     33     30
DK/NA                25     26     25     26     24     25     26     25
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jan 29  Nov 15  Jun 12  Mar 14  Jun 15  Jun 12
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2011    2012
 
Approve              43      43      43      40      42      45      40
Disapprove           32      25      28      27      28      28      27
DK/NA                26      32      29      32      31      27      32
 
 
32. Do you feel that Tom Corbett deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         35%    59%    12%    34%    42%    28%
No/Does not          53     33     77     48     48     57
DK/NA                12      8     11     18     10     15
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes/Deserves         29%    37%    33%    36%    39%    40%    33%    33%
No/Does not          59     50     53     56     51     50     54     54
DK/NA                12     13     14      8      9     10     13     13
 
TREND: Do you feel that Tom Corbett deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Mar 13  Jan 29
                     2013    2013
 
Yes/Deserves         35      31
No/Does not          53      51
DK/NA                12      18
 
 
33. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        3%     3%     3%     4%     4%     2%
Smwht satisfied      41     52     33     40     45     37
Smwht dissatisfied   38     35     41     35     33     41
Very dissatisfied    18     10     23     21     17     19
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Very satisfied        2%     3%     4%     1%     4%     3%     2%     3%
Smwht satisfied      41     41     38     43     43     57     37     36
Smwht dissatisfied   38     38     36     37     42     28     43     39
Very dissatisfied    19     18     21     19     12     12     18     20
DK/NA                 -      1      1      1      -      -      -      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 13  Jan 29  Nov 15  Jun 12  Mar 15  Jun 05  Dec 15
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2002    2010
 
Very satisfied        3       3       5       3       3       8       2
Smwht satisfied      41      42      46      40      40      60      35
Smwht dissatisfied   38      37      31      39      38      22      37
Very dissatisfied    18      18      17      17      19       8      25
DK/NA                 1       1       2       2       -       3       1
 
 
34. As you may know Medicaid is a government program that pays for health care for low-income people and others with certain disabilities. Do you think that increasing the number of people eligible for Medicaid coverage in Pennsylvania is a good idea or a bad idea?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Good idea            46%    29%    64%    45%    39%    52%
Bad idea             43     63     24     44     49     38
DK/NA                11      8     12     12     12     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Good idea            47%    45%    53%    41%    39%    43%    46%    46%
Bad idea             43     44     38     49     52     53     43     40
DK/NA                 9     11     10     10      9      4     10     13
 
 

Demographic Summary