February 18, 2004 - Kerry Buries All Dems And Tops Bush In Keystone State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval In Pennsylvania Is Lowest Ever
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has left the Democratic presidential pack in the dust in Pennsylvania and, in a head-to-head face-off, now leads President George W. Bush 50 - 45 percent among all voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

A December 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University showed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the lead among Pennsylvania Democrats, with 28 percent; Kerry was in fifth place with 7 percent.

In this latest survey, Kerry gets 61 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats, followed by North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 15 percent, Dean with 9 percent, Rev. Al Sharpton with 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich with 2 percent.

Pennsylvania voters give President Bush a negative 47 - 49 percent approval rating, his lowest ever in the state and down from 53 - 43 percent December 17.

"The sharp decline in President Bush's approval rating in Pennsylvania is due in large part to the economy. Pennsylvania voters say the economy is the No. 1 issue in the presidential campaign and an overwhelming 67 percent describe the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." Only 32 percent describe it as "excellent" or "good," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"For the first time a Democrat - John Kerry - is seen as beating Bush in Pennsylvania. That's a reflection of not only the economy, but politics. Kerry is riding the crest of an apparently easy ride to the Democratic nomination while Bush is stuck trying to explain whether he showed up for National Guard duty during the Vietnam war," Richards added.

The economy is the most important presidential campaign issue, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, followed by 19 percent who list health care, 14 percent who say terrorism, 13 percent who say Iraq, 7 percent who say taxes and 5 percent who say gay marriage.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter gets a 53 - 32 percent approval rating, with 44 percent of Pennsylvania voters who want to see him reelected and 40 percent who want a new senator. Among Republicans, only 49 percent want Specter reelected, with 37 percent who want someone else.

But Specter beats U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel 50 - 31 percent.

Pennsylvania voters know little about Hoeffel or U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, with almost 80 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about either possible Senate candidate to form an opinion. Specter gets a 41 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent mixed and 9 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"Sen. Specter's numbers have nudged downward a little, but in the only contest that counts, he would beat Rep. Joseph Hoeffel today by 19 points. Hoeffel is largely unknown and he will find it tough to win with those kind of numbers," Richards said.

From February 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,356 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey includes 501 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



TREND: Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Haven't
                       Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


Feb 18, 2004 9 5 6 79 1 Dec 17, 2003 10 3 7 79 1 Oct 15, 2003 9 3 6 81 1 Aug 7, 2003 8 3 8 78 3 May 22, 2003 5 2 4 87 1 Apr 10, 2003 5 2 4 89 1 Feb 21, 2003 5 1 5 87 2



TREND: Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Haven't
                       Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2



TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Haven't
                       Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1



TREND: Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                      Nt So
                       Exlnt  Good    Good     Poor    DK/NA


Feb 18, 2004 1 31 45 22 1 Dec 16, 2003 1 33 43 21 2 Apr 10, 2003 2 38 44 14 2 Feb 20, 2003 1 33 46 19 1



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 53% 56% 52% 53% 52% 54% 55% Disapprove 32 34 32 29 34 30 32 DK/NA 15 11 15 18 14 16 13

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 45% 54% 52% 54% 62% 52% 54% Disapprove 40 33 30 32 26 32 31 DK/NA 15 13 18 15 12 16 15



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 53% 71% 39% 51% 53% 53% 45% Disapprove 27 13 39 29 28 26 32 DK/NA 20 16 22 20 18 22 22



Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 53% 46% 45% 52% 62% 54% 58% Disapprove 38 30 28 26 26 28 21 DK/NA 9 24 27 22 12 18 22



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 47% 83% 18% 42% 52% 43% 41% Disapprove 49 13 78 56 45 54 57 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 3 4 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 35% 29% 48% 48% 47% 54% 59% Disapprove 57 70 51 48 50 43 38 DK/NA 8 2 2 4 3 3 3



6. Now I'm going to name five Democrats running for president this year. After I read all five names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president this year. Here are the choices... Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
                          
                      Dem 


Kerry 61% Edwards 15 Dean 9 Sharpton 4 Kucinich 2 DK/NA 9



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 50% 12% 85% 51% 45% 55% 59% Bush 45 84 11 44 52 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 1 4 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 60% 74% 51% 48% 51% 45% 38% Bush 37 24 44 47 46 50 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 2 DK/NA 2 2 4 3 3 4 3



8. Arlen Specter will be up for re-election this November. Would you like to see Arlen Specter re-elected senator, or would you rather see someone else elected senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Specter 44% 49% 39% 48% 46% 43% 44% Someone else 40 37 44 38 40 40 41 DK/NA 16 14 17 14 14 17 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter 37% 40% 49% 41% 57% 39% 48% Someone else 45 48 37 40 31 43 36 DK/NA 18 13 15 18 11 18 16



9. Suppose the general election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Hoeffel 31% 14% 49% 29% 28% 34% 36% Specter 50 69 35 48 53 48 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 11 14 18 13 16 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 26% 52% 27% 37% 22% 29% 24% Specter 49 34 54 49 61 53 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 1 1 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 1 2 3 DK/NA 18 11 17 11 12 14 17



10. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 9% 14% 5% 8% 12% 7% 8% Unfavorable 5 4 6 5 7 3 5 Mixed 6 5 4 7 5 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 76 84 78 75 84 78 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 2 1 3

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 7% 7% 15% 8% 6% 8% 11% Unfavorable 4 4 7 6 1 5 5 Mixed 3 4 11 7 5 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 86 84 66 77 86 83 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 - 1



11. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 12% 9% 16% 10% 13% 10% 13% Unfavorable 3 4 2 2 4 2 3 Mixed 9 8 8 12 8 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 76 78 75 75 75 77 73 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 3% 26% 7% 26% - 5% 6% Unfavorable - 4 3 8 1 1 1 Mixed 6 16 5 14 6 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 91 52 85 52 93 88 85 REFUSED - 2 - 1 - - 1



12. Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 41% 44% 39% 41% 42% 40% 44% Unfavorable 22 21 23 22 25 20 24 Mixed 28 27 29 28 26 31 26 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 9 8 7 10 6 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 37% 34% 46% 43% 44% 37% 42% Unfavorable 23 25 19 21 17 23 23 Mixed 30 29 28 27 31 31 27 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 7 7 8 9 8 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - -



14. Which one of the following issues is most important to you when you think about your vote in the general election for president in November -- the economy, health care, the situation in Iraq, terrorism, taxes or gay marriage?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Economy 36% 30% 43% 36% 38% 34% 34% Health care 19 14 24 18 15 24 20 Iraq 13 10 15 14 12 14 15 Terrorism 14 23 5 15 17 11 12 Taxes 7 10 5 6 9 6 9 Gay marriage 5 8 3 5 4 6 4 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 3 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Economy 48% 33% 39% 32% 42% 38% 30% Health care 16 21 28 18 16 17 19 Iraq 14 20 7 15 14 8 12 Terrorism 10 12 11 16 12 16 17 Taxes 5 3 7 4 7 11 12 Gay marriage 2 5 1 7 7 4 7 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 - 2 1 DK/NA 4 3 5 4 1 5 2



18. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as: excellent, good, not so good or poor?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Excellent 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Good 31 38 25 31 37 25 30 Not so good 45 42 48 43 41 48 44 Poor 22 16 25 23 19 25 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Excellent - 3% - 2% - - 2% Good 12 34 34 48 15 18 34 Not so good 46 44 43 40 52 50 44 Poor 41 19 23 8 33 31 19 DK/NA 2 1 - 3 - - 1



19. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in Pennsylvania will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Get better 30% 37% 25% 25% 36% 24% 32% Get worse 15 13 16 17 14 16 18 Stay the same 51 48 54 54 46 56 45 DK/NA 4 2 5 4 4 4 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Get better 29% 28% 31% 37% 18% 26% 31% Get worse 19 9 17 6 25 19 16 Stay the same 49 59 51 51 52 49 49 DK/NA 3 3 1 5 4 6 4



20. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Better off 36% 43% 33% 33% 41% 31% 39% Worse off 39 34 43 39 34 44 39 SAME(VOL) 23 21 23 26 24 23 22 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Better off 28% 38% 40% 41% 34% 25% 38% Worse off 45 45 33 37 39 40 39 SAME(VOL) 26 17 25 22 25 33 22 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 2 1 1