March 17, 2004 - Nader Rains On Kerry Parade In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Keystone State Voters Split Between Bush-Kerry
Pennsylvania is shaping up once again as a critical state in the Presidential race as voters give 44 percent to President George W. Bush, 40 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry and 7 percent to independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Kerry gets 45 percent to President Bush's 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In the two-candidate race, Republicans back Bush 77 - 14 percent, as Democrats back Kerry 77 - 14 percent and independent voters go with Kerry 48 - 36 percent.

With Nader in the race, independent voters shift to 38 percent for Kerry, 34 percent for Bush and 15 percent for Nader. Republicans shift from 14 percent for Kerry to 11 percent for Kerry and 4 percent for Nader.

"Pennsylvania is living up to its promise of being one of the key battleground states of the Presidential election. Ralph Nader again threatens to be the spoiler, taking away enough votes from Sen. Kerry in Pennsylvania to give President Bush a narrow edge at this point," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The fight for President in Pennsylvania is going to be hardest fought in the Philadelphia suburbs. Bush and Kerry are neck and neck in these suburbs - areas where Gov. Rendell ran up big margins as a Democrat running for governor. The other key elements in this battle are independents where Kerry has a slight advantage, and young people, where the President now enjoys a 13-point lead. In these three groups - the Philadelphia suburbs, independents and young people - Ralph Nader is polling in double digits, stealing votes Kerry will need to carry Pennsylvania," Richards added.

"But with nearly one in four voters saying they could change their minds before election day, the race for Pennsylvania is wide open."

Bush has a 41 - 36 percent favorability rating among voters, with 21 percent mixed and 1 percent who say they haven't heard enough to make a decision.

Kerry gets a split 28 - 27 percent favorability rating, with 26 percent mixed and 18 percent who haven't formed an opinion. Nader's favorability is a negative 15 - 29 percent, with 21 percent mixed and 33 percent who haven't formed an opinion.

Bush's economic policies have hurt Pennsylvania, 36 percent of voters say, while 19 percent say they've helped the state and 34 percent say they've had no effect.

A total of 47 percent of voters are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" that they or a family member will lose their job this year, while 51 percent are "not too concerned" or "not concerned at all."

Going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 39 percent. Republican voters back the war decision 77 - 14 percent, while Democrats oppose it 63 - 28 percent and independent voters back the war 48 - 43 percent.

From March 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,022 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 48% 82% 18% 40% 51% 46% 43% Disapprove 48 15 79 54 46 49 53 DK/NA 4 3 3 6 4 5 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 48% 17% 46% 44% 60% 60% 58% Disapprove 49 82 46 52 36 34 38 DK/NA 3 1 8 5 4 6 4



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


A lot 46% 45% 50% 48% 51% 41% 47% Some 33 32 34 32 32 34 32 Only a little 16 18 13 14 14 18 19 None at all 5 5 3 7 3 6 2 DK/NA - - - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 45% 14% 77% 48% 43% 47% 46% Bush 44 77 14 36 47 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 7 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 7 7 5 8 6 8 8

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 50% 70% 46% 50% 32% 32% 36% Bush 42 14 40 41 60 61 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 5 8 3 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 1 - DK/NA 5 11 6 6 6 4 10



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 40% 11% 73% 38% 37% 42% 41% Bush 44 77 14 34 47 41 42 Nader 7 4 6 15 8 6 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 4 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 - DK/NA 8 8 6 8 7 8 10

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 47% 64% 43% 40% 29% 29% 32% Bush 44 12 40 39 60 58 52 Nader 4 8 9 12 4 4 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - 2 1 - DK/NA 4 12 9 7 3 8 8



9. (If candidate selection on q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                              CAND CHOICE Q8
                              Kerry   Bush
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 74% 79% 77% Might change 24 18 22 DK/NA 1 2 1



10. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 41% 71% 16% 32% 45% 37% 36% Unfavorable 36 11 63 38 33 39 40 Mixed 21 16 19 28 20 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 1 1 1 1 - REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 43% 20% 36% 32% 54% 58% 48% Unfavorable 38 61 38 40 27 30 25 Mixed 19 16 23 24 18 12 25 Hvn't hrd enough - - 2 3 1 - 2 REFUSED - 3 1 - - - -



11. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 28% 12% 49% 25% 26% 29% 25% Unfavorable 27 47 8 23 32 22 25 Mixed 26 21 26 34 29 24 33 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 16 17 12 24 16 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 33% 40% 32% 29% 24% 23% 19% Unfavorable 34 16 23 21 36 37 27 Mixed 24 22 30 29 22 23 28 Hvn't hrd enough 10 18 14 19 18 16 26 REFUSED - 3 1 1 - - 1



12. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union 
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 15% 12% 13% 29% 19% 12% 17% Unfavorable 29 33 27 28 35 24 27 Mixed 21 21 23 23 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 33 33 35 20 25 40 33 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 2 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 15% 18% 10% 23% 8% 11% 15% Unfavorable 35 16 29 31 30 37 28 Mixed 23 21 25 17 24 16 22 Hvn't hrd enough 25 40 35 28 37 34 34 REFUSED 2 5 1 1 - 2 2



19. Which one of the following issues is most important to you when you think about your vote in the general election for president in November; economic conditions, health care, the situation in Iraq, terrorism, taxes or gay marriage?

                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Economic cond 34% 29% 42% 36% 36% 33% 38% Health care 20 15 25 22 16 24 22 Iraq 11 6 14 13 7 13 8 Terrorism 16 26 5 15 20 12 14 Taxes 11 14 7 10 13 9 10 Gay marriage 5 6 4 2 5 5 4 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 1 2 4 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Economic cond 26% 36% 34% 39% 38% 32% 33% Health care 16 27 33 17 16 24 15 Iraq 13 21 11 10 4 6 8 Terrorism 23 6 10 17 17 19 17 Taxes 12 7 6 11 8 8 15 Gay marriage 6 1 4 1 12 6 5 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 3 3 4



20. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Right thing 52% 77% 28% 48% 60% 45% 54% Wrong thing 39 14 63 43 32 45 40 DK/NA 9 8 9 9 8 11 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Right thing 51% 29% 51% 44% 61% 61% 62% Wrong thing 43 69 34 46 28 29 27 DK/NA 6 2 15 10 11 9 10



21. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as: excellent, good, not so good or poor?

                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Excellent - - - 1% - - 1% Good 30 38 23 32 35 27 27 Not so good 47 44 51 48 46 48 53 Poor 19 13 24 17 16 22 19 DK/NA 3 5 2 2 2 4 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Excellent - - - - 1% - 1% Good 25 21 29 44 27 18 35 Not so good 49 58 51 43 43 47 44 Poor 23 20 14 10 28 35 16 DK/NA 2 1 6 3 1 1 5



22. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in Pennsylvania will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Get better 28% 29% 30% 23% 33% 23% 21% Get worse 12 10 14 14 13 12 15 Stay the same 55 56 54 58 50 59 60 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 5 6 3

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Get better 31% 36% 29% 30% 28% 20% 24% Get worse 18 12 12 8 10 16 12 Stay the same 46 48 55 57 58 58 58 DK/NA 5 4 3 5 5 6 6



23. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Better off 38% 44% 31% 40% 43% 34% 34% Worse off 36 29 46 32 32 40 42 SAME(VOL) 24 26 21 27 23 25 22 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 2 1 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Better off 38% 28% 32% 47% 38% 41% 38% Worse off 31 51 45 28 34 34 35 SAME(VOL) 25 21 21 21 27 24 27 DK/NA 6 - 2 4 1 1 -



24. How concerned are you that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year or so - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all?

                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Very concerned 24% 17% 35% 18% 19% 28% 29% Smwht concerned 23 19 30 19 26 21 24 Not too concerned 27 31 18 33 28 26 26 Not concerned at all 24 31 15 29 27 21 20 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 - 3 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Very concerned 18% 41% 26% 18% 29% 15% 24% Smwht concerned 25 27 16 22 19 35 23 Not too concerned 32 15 30 32 27 21 28 Not concerned at all 24 13 26 27 24 26 25 DK/NA 1 5 2 1 1 4 1



25. Do you think President Bush's economic policies have helped Pennsylvania, hurt Pennsylvania, or had no effect on Pennsylvania?
                                                                      Union  
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds 


Helped 19% 33% 7% 15% 25% 14% 15% Hurt 36 15 57 43 32 39 43 No effect 34 38 29 33 36 33 34 DK/NA 11 14 7 9 7 14 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Helped 19% 8% 14% 18% 21% 22% 26% Hurt 34 48 36 37 30 30 33 No effect 37 32 40 32 37 41 28 DK/NA 9 12 10 13 12 7 12