April 7, 2004 - Specter Has 15-Point Lead In Pennsylvania GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Conservative Voters Split Between Candidates
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter has a 52 - 37 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey among likely voters in the Pennsylvania Republican primary, including voters who are leaning toward a candidate, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today.

Their mind is made up, 72 percent of Specter supporters and 77 percent of Toomey supporters say. Among Toomey supporters, 31 percent say their vote is pro-Toomey and 60 percent say it is anti-Specter; 72 percent of Specter backers say they're voting for the incumbent, while 16 percent are voting against Toomey.

Sen. Specter is "too liberal," 43 percent of these likely Republican primary voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll. While 12 percent of Republicans say Toomey is "too conservative," 41 percent are undecided.

Self-described conservative Republican voters, however, split with 46 percent for Sen. Specter and 43 percent for Rep. Toomey.

"Sen. Specter may be getting a stronger challenge than he expected, but he's not in trouble yet. So far, the conservatives have failed to unite behind Congressman Toomey, but split almost evenly between the two contenders. Toomey is getting most of those who say Specter is too liberal, 64 percent, but that group alone won't be enough to put him over the top," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Specter gets a 39 - 24 favorability rating from Pennsylvania Republican voters, with 33 percent mixed and 4 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Toomey gets a 24 - 12 percent favorability rating, with 24 percent mixed and 39 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Congressman Toomey's best hope is to make inroads into that large bloc of Republican voters who now say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion - a group that right now is staying with Specter, 63 -21 percent. Both candidates' television advertisements are being watched by a large majority of the likely voters and could have an impact on this campaign," Richards added.
Of the 78 percent of Republican voters who have seen Specter's TV ads:
  • Viewers say 48 - 40 percent that the ads are more positive than negative;
  • 40 percent say they are mostly accurate and 33 percent say mostly misleading;
  • 51 percent say they are useful and 39 percent say not useful.

Of the 69 percent of Republican voters who have seen Toomey's TV ads:
  • Viewers say 57 - 28 percent that the ads are more negative than positive;
  • 36 percent say they are mostly accurate and 32 percent say mostly misleading;
  • 56 percent say they are useful and 36 percent say not useful.
From March 30 - April 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 615 Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

3. If the Republican primary for senator were being held today, would you vote for Pat Toomey or Arlen Specter?

3a. (If undecided q3) Well as of today, do you lean more towards Toomey or Specter?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Toomey 37% 29% 43% 40% 33% Specter 52 60 46 51 54 DK/NA 11 11 11 9 13



3b. (If candidate choice q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                      IF CANDIDATE CHOICE Q3
                              Toomey  Specter
                      Tot     Voters  Voters
                      
Made up               74%     77%     72%
Might change          25      23      27 
DK/NA                  1       1       1 




4. (If Toomey voter q3 or q3a)Is your vote more for Toomey or more against Specter?

                    Toomey
                    voter q3/3a


For Toomey 31% Against Specter 60 DK/NA 9



5. (If Specter voter q3 or q3a)Is your vote more for Specter or more against Toomey?

                    Specter
                    voter q3/3a


For Specter 72% Against Toomey 16 DK/NA 12



6. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Favorable 39% 45% 33% 38% 40% Unfavorable 24 18 28 26 20 Mixed 33 33 34 33 34 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 5 3 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1



7. Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Favorable 24% 14% 31% 29% 17% Unfavorable 12 16 9 12 11 Mixed 24 26 21 23 25 Hvn't hrd enough 39 42 37 35 45 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2



8. Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Too Liberal 43% 23% 59% 49% 35% Too Conservative 5 10 1 5 5 About right 41 54 31 38 44 DK/NA 12 13 9 8 16



9. Do you think Pat Toomey is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Too Liberal 13% 11% 16% 16% 10% Too Conservative 12 22 6 13 12 About right 33 23 40 36 29 DK/NA 41 44 39 35 49



10. Have you seen any of Arlen Specter's television ads for this year's republican primary for senator?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Yes 78% 78% 78% 79% 77% No 21 22 20 21 20 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 2



11. (If "yes" q10)I would like to ask you a few questions about Arlen Specter's television ads for this year's primary. First, from what you've seen of Arlen Specter's television ads, are they more positive or more negative?

                    HAVE SEEN SPECTER ADS Q10..........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Positive 48% 51% 45% 49% 46% Negative 40 38 42 38 42 DK/NA 13 10 13 13 12



12. Are they mostly accurate or mostly misleading?

                    HAVE SEEN SPECTER ADS Q10..........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Accurate 40% 40% 40% 45% 34% Misleading 33 31 36 34 32 DK/NA 26 29 24 21 34



13. Have you found the information provided useful or not useful?

                    HAVE SEEN SPECTER ADS Q10..........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Useful 51% 54% 49% 47% 56% Not useful 39 36 42 44 33 DK/NA 10 11 9 9 11



14. Have you seen any of Pat Toomey's television ads for this year's republican primary for senator?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Yes 69% 69% 71% 69% 70% No 28 29 26 29 27 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 3



15. (If "yes" q14)I would like to ask you a few questions about Pat Toomey's television ads for this year's primary. First, from what you've seen of Pat Toomey's television ads, are they more positive or more negative?

                    HAVE SEEN TOOMEY ADS Q14...........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Positive 28% 25% 31% 25% 32% Negative 57 62 54 60 52 DK/NA 15 13 16 15 16



16. Are they mostly accurate or mostly misleading?

                    HAVE SEEN TOOMEY ADS Q14...........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Accurate 36% 29% 42% 44% 27% Misleading 32 38 28 33 31 DK/NA 32 33 30 23 42



17. Have you found the information provided useful or not useful?

                    HAVE SEEN TOOMEY ADS Q14...........
                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Useful 56% 52% 59% 55% 57% Not useful 36 39 35 41 30 DK/NA 8 9 7 4 13