April 21, 2004 - Bush Tops Kerry In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush's Approval Down, But Voters Don't Like Kerry
President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry 45 - 39 percent among Pennsylvania voters, with 8 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 44 - 40 percent lead for President Bush, with 7 percent for Nader in a March 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Bush leads Kerry 46 - 42 percent. In the two-candidate race, Republicans back Bush 80 - 10 percent, as Democrats back Kerry 73 - 17 percent and independent voters go with Kerry 48 - 39 percent.

With Nader in the race, independent voters shift to 40 percent for Kerry, 38 percent for Bush and 12 percent for Nader. Democrats shift to 69 percent for Kerry and 6 percent for Nader.

"President Bush and Sen. Kerry both saw their favorability rating drop in Pennsylvania over the past month. For Bush it was most likely a reflection in the drop in support for the war in Iraq as the American death toll mounts. In Kerry's case, it may be 'out of sight out of mind' as his visibility shrank following the much publicized battle for the Democratic nomination," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The bottom line is that the Keystone State is in play and will be critical to the outcome of the presidential election," Richards added.

Pennsylvania voters give President Bush a negative 47 - 49 percent approval rating, matching his all-time low in Pennsylvania.

Bush has a 39 - 37 percent favorability rating among voters, with 22 percent mixed and 1 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Kerry gets a negative 24 - 31 percent favorability rating, with 27 percent mixed and 17 percent who haven't formed an opinion.

Nader's favorability is a negative 13 - 29 percent, with 20 percent mixed and 37 percent who haven't formed an opinion.

Bush's economic policies have hurt Pennsylvania, 40 percent of voters say, while 19 percent say they've helped the state and 33 percent say they've had no effect.

The economy is the most important issue in the presidential campaign, 29 percent of voters say, followed by 19 percent each for Iraq and terrorism, 10 percent for health care, 6 percent for Medicare/prescription drugs, 5 percent for Social Security, 4 percent for taxes and 3 percent for gay marriage.

Going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, Pennsylvania voters say 49 - 45 percent, down from 52 - 39 percent March 17.

From April 13 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 769 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                       Smone   Wldn't         
                       JK      GWB     Else    Vote    DK/NA  


Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                               Smone   Wldn't         
                       JK      GWB     RN      Else    Vote    DK/NA  


Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8



TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused  


Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1



TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 




Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1



TREND: Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 


Apr 21, 2004 13 29 20 37 2 Mar 17, 2004 15 29 21 33 2



TREND: Which one of the following issues is most important to you when you think about your vote in the general election for president in November; economic conditions, health care, the situation in Iraq, terrorism, taxes, gay marriage, social security or Medicare and prescription drugs? (* Indicates option not offered in survey at that time / Percentages may not add to 100 as "No Opinion" is not shown)

                                                                              Mdcare
                       Econ    HlthCr  Iraq    Terror  Taxes   GayMar  SocSec Perscrp
 
Apr 21, 2004           29      10      19      19       4       3       5       6
Mar 17, 2004           34      20      11      16      11       5       *       *
Feb 18, 2004           36      19      13      14       7       5       *       *




TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Right   Wrong   DK/NA


Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9



TREND: Do you think President Bush's economic policies have helped Pennsylvania, hurt Pennsylvania, or had no effect on Pennsylvania?

                                       No
                       Helped  Hurt    Effect  DK/NA


Apr 21, 2004 19 40 33 8 Mar 17, 2004 19 36 34 11



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 47% 76% 18% 44% 55% 40% 45% Disapprove 49 19 78 52 43 54 52 DK/NA 4 5 4 4 2 6 3



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


A lot 48% 50% 49% 49% 51% 46% 49% Some 31 33 30 33 33 30 33 Only a little 15 14 16 13 12 18 12 None at all 5 3 6 4 5 6 6 DK/NA - - - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 42% 10% 73% 48% 35% 48% 44% Bush 46 80 17 39 53 39 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 6 7 8 6 8 7



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 39% 10% 69% 40% 31% 46% 43% Bush 45 78 16 38 53 37 40 Nader 8 5 6 12 7 8 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 7 6 7 8 7 8 6



9. (If candidate choice given Q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                      IF CANDIDATE CHOICE Q8
                              Kerry   Bush
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 78% 83% 83% Might change 20 15 17 DK/NA 2 2 -



10. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 39% 69% 13% 36% 46% 34% 36% Unfavorable 37 12 61 41 31 43 40 Mixed 22 19 24 21 22 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 REFUSED - - 1 - - 1 -



11. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 24% 7% 47% 19% 20% 28% 33% Unfavorable 31 56 8 30 35 27 29 Mixed 27 24 24 35 27 27 20 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 20 16 18 17 17 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - -



12. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 13% 8% 11% 20% 16% 10% 16% Unfavorable 29 31 32 23 34 25 28 Mixed 20 19 17 27 19 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 37 38 39 30 28 45 35 REFUSED 2 3 1 - 2 1 3



13. Which one of the following issues is most important to you when you think about your vote in the general election for president in November; the economy, health care, the situation in Iraq, terrorism, taxes, gay marriage, social security or Medicare and prescription drugs?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Economy 29% 27% 31% 32% 36% 23% 30% Health care 10 7 14 10 6 13 11 Iraq 19 16 24 16 14 23 20 Terrorism 19 27 11 22 20 18 19 Taxes 4 5 3 2 4 4 2 Gay marriage 3 5 1 2 2 3 3 Social security 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 Medicare/Prescription drugs 6 6 8 6 6 7 5 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 3 DK/NA 2 2 3 3 2 2 1



25. Do you think President Bush's economic policies have helped Pennsylvania, hurt Pennsylvania, or had no effect on Pennsylvania?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Helped 19% 36% 7% 14% 25% 15% 13% Hurt 40 19 57 47 36 43 45 No effect 33 35 29 35 35 31 37 DK/NA 8 11 6 4 4 11 5



26. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Right thing 49% 75% 24% 44% 58% 41% 47% Wrong thing 45 21 70 51 37 53 49 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 5 6 4