April 26, 2004 - Specter Has Slim Lead In Pennsylvania GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 10 Percent Of Voters Still Undecided
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter leads U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey 48 - 42 percent among Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. This compares to a 49 - 44 percent lead by Sen. Specter in an April 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, which includes voters who are leaning toward a candidate, 10 percent of voters say they still are undecided.

Conservative Republicans support Rep. Toomey 53 - 37 percent, while liberal and moderate Republicans back Specter 66 - 25 percent.

"There was very little movement in the numbers this last week. Sen. Specter holds a slight lead, but it's a close race and anything could happen. With 10 percent of likely voters undecided and 14 percent saying they could change their mind, it comes down to which candidate does the better job of getting his voters out tomorrow," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From April 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 617 Pennsylvania likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research.

TREND: If the Republican primary for senator were being held today, would you vote for Pat Toomey or Arlen Specter? (If undecided) Well as of today, do you lean more towards Toomey or Specter?

                    PT      AS      DK/NA


Apr 26, 2004 42 48 10 Apr 20, 2004 44 49 7 Apr 7, 2004 37 52 11



TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                            Hvn't
                    Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   REFUSED


Apr 26, 2004 39 25 31 3 1 Apr 20, 2004 40 27 29 1 2 Apr 7, 2004 39 24 33 4 1



TREND: Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                            Hvn't
                    Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   REFUSED


Apr 26, 2004 33 15 29 20 2 Apr 20, 2004 35 13 25 25 2 Apr 7, 2004 24 12 24 39 1



3. If the Republican primary for senator were being held today, would you vote for Pat Toomey or Arlen Specter? (If undecided)3a. Well as of today, do you lean more towards Toomey or Specter?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Toomey 42% 25% 53% 42% 42% Specter 48 66 37 48 48 DK/NA 10 9 10 10 11



3b. (If candidate choice on Q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                              CANDIDATE CHOICE Q3
                              Toomey  Specter
                      Tot     Voters  Voters


Made up 85% 85% 86% Might change 14 14 14 DK/NA 1 1 1



4. (If Toomey voter Q3 or Q3a)Is your vote more for Toomey or more against Specter?
                    Toomey
                    Voter Q3/3a


For Toomey 39% Against Specter 52 DK/NA 9



5. (If Specter voter Q3 or Q3a)Is your vote more for Specter or more against Toomey?
                    Specter
                    Voter Q3/3a


For Specter 82% Against Toomey 12 DK/NA 6



6. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Favorable 39% 52% 31% 38% 41% Unfavorable 25 18 30 28 22 Mixed 31 27 35 31 32 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 2 4 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2



7. Is your opinion of Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Favorable 33% 23% 40% 35% 31% Unfavorable 15 23 9 17 13 Mixed 29 33 28 30 28 Hvn't hrd enough 20 20 20 17 25 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 3



8. Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Too Liberal 50% 28% 64% 55% 44% Too Conservative 3 6 - 2 3 About right 36 53 26 35 38 DK/NA 11 13 9 8 15



9. Do you think Pat Toomey is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Tot     Lib/Mod Con     Men     Wom


Too Liberal 13% 13% 14% 16% 10% Too Conservative 17 31 8 19 14 About right 40 28 49 41 38 DK/NA 30 28 29 24 39