May 27, 2004 - Kerry Ahead As Bush Approval Drops In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Specter Has Big Early Lead In Senate Race
Democratic challenger John Kerry has moved into a thin 44 - 41 percent lead over President George W. Bush among Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 45 - 39 percent lead for President Bush, with 8 percent for Nader in an April 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Bush's job approval has dropped to an all-time low of 41 percent in Pennsylvania, with 55 percent disapproving. Voters say 51 - 42 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, reversing a 49 - 45 percent vote in favor of the war April 21.

Voters say 50 - 41 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy, ranked by 49 percent as more important than Iraq or terrorism in deciding how they will vote for President. Voters split 48 - 45 percent that Bush would do a better job in Iraq.

"Sen. Kerry has taken the lead over President Bush in this key battleground state following a 7-point loss in support for the war in Iraq," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Pennsylvania voters turned against the war for the first time when it dramatically came home with the beheading of a Philadelphia businessman and the involvement of soldiers from a Pennsylvania reserve unit in the Iraq prison abuse scandal."

By a 66 - 31 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters say the prison abuse scandal is unacceptable and not something that normally happens in war. Senate Race

Incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter has a 49 - 37 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger. Republican voters support Specter 75 - 13 percent, as Democratic voters back Hoeffel 58 - 29 percent and independent voters back Specter 46 - 39 percent.

Pennsylvania voters give Specter a 32 - 24 percent favorability rating, with 35 percent mixed and 9 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Hoeffel gets a 13 - 7 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 68 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"At this point, the Senate race is a replay of the primary: Sen. Specter holds a comfortable lead over a largely unknown Congressman. Almost 70 percent of the voters don't have an opinion of Rep. Hoeffel, but they said the same thing about Rep. Pat Toomey early on. It may be more difficult for Hoeffel to close the gap because many Democrats as well as most Republicans are behind Specter at this point," Richards said. Governor's Approval

Pennsylvania voters approve 49 - 31 percent of the job Gov. Ed Rendell is doing, compared to his 46 - 33 percent approval in an April 22 Quinnipiac University poll.

A total of 56 percent of voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 42 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."

From May 24 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 701 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 27, 2004 49 31 19 Apr 22, 2004 46 33 22 Mar 18, 2004 46 35 19 Feb 19,2004 48 36 16 Dec 16, 2003 46 34 19 Oct 16, 2003 50 28 22 Aug 6, 2003 51 29 21 May 23, 2003 49 27 24 Apr 10, 2003 51 19 30 Feb 20, 2003 54 12 33



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA  


May 27, 2004 40 39 21 Apr 22, 2004 37 38 25 Mar 18, 2004 40 40 20 Feb 19,2004 40 39 21 Dec 16, 2003 38 44 18 Oct 16, 2003 43 37 19 Aug 6, 2003 41 39 20 May 23, 2003 45 33 22 Apr 10, 2003 49 24 27



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 27, 2004 48 41 11 Apr 22, 2004 47 36 17 Mar 18, 2004 49 36 15 Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his Job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 27, 2004 53 28 19 Apr 22, 2004 47 30 22 Mar 18, 2004 51 28 21 Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


May 27, 2004 41 55 5 Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                       Smone   Wldn't         
                       JK      GWB     Else    Vote    DK/NA  


May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                               Smone   Wldn't         
                       JK      GWB     RN      Else    Vote    DK/NA  


May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8



TREND: Suppose the general election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?

                       JH      AS      Smone   Wldn't         
                       Dem     Rep     Else    Vote    DK/NA  
                       
May 27, 2004           37      49       1       2      11
Mar 18, 2004           29      45       3       3      20
Dec 17, 2003           32      50       1       2      14
Oct 15, 2003           33      50       2       2      13
Aug 7, 2003            29      53       2       2      15




TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused  


May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1



TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 


May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1



TREND: Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Hvn't
                       Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 


May 27, 2004 14 31 25 29 1 Apr 21, 2004 13 29 20 37 2 Mar 17, 2004 15 29 21 33 2



TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or havent't you heard enough about him?

                                               Haven't
                       Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


May 27, 2004 32 24 35 9 - Mar 18, 2004 35 24 30 9 1 Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1



TREND: Is your opinion of (Pennsylvania Congressman) Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                               Haven't
                       Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


May 27, 2004 13 7 11 68 1 Mar 18, 2004 10 6 14 70 1 Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2



TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                       Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                       sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA


May 27, 2004 4 52 31 11 2 Apr 22, 2004 5 56 26 11 1 Mar 18, 2004 4 46 33 15 2 Feb 19,2004 4 45 33 17 1 Dec 16, 2003 4 50 28 17 1 Oct 16, 2003 5 51 30 13 1 Aug 6, 2003 4 53 30 12 1 May 23, 2003 5 53 28 13 2 Apr 10, 2003 7 59 25 8 2 Feb 20, 2003 7 56 25 9 2 Jun 5, 2002 8 60 22 8 3



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                       Right   Wrong   DK/NA


May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9



TREND: Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                      Nt So
                       Exlnt  Good    Good     Poor    DK/NA


May 27, 2004 1 38 43 16 2 Apr 22, 2004 1 36 46 15 2 Mar 18, 2004 - 30 47 19 3 Feb 18, 2004 1 31 45 22 1 Dec 16, 2003 1 33 43 21 2 Apr 10, 2003 2 38 44 14 2 Feb 20, 2003 1 33 46 19 1



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 49% 39% 59% 53% 49% 50% 48% Disapprove 31 41 24 32 33 30 36 DK/NA 19 20 17 16 19 20 16



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 40% 45% 39% 36% 41% 39% 34% Disapprove 39 33 43 44 42 36 41 DK/NA 21 22 18 20 18 25 25



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 48% 54% 42% 49% 50% 47% 46% Disapprove 41 37 47 42 40 42 46 DK/NA 11 9 11 9 10 11 8



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 53% 73% 38% 49% 56% 50% 50% Disapprove 28 12 40 33 26 31 31 DK/NA 19 14 22 18 18 19 19



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 41% 73% 14% 37% 44% 37% 35% Disapprove 55 20 83 58 52 57 59 DK/NA 5 7 3 5 4 6 6



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


A lot 51% 53% 59% 41% 51% 52% 52% Some 33 31 29 39 33 32 33 Only a little 12 13 10 11 11 12 10 None at all 4 2 2 9 5 4 5 DK/NA - 1 - - - - -



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 45% 12% 80% 44% 41% 49% 46% Bush 42 79 14 34 46 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 DK/NA 9 6 6 14 8 10 11



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 44% 11% 80% 42% 40% 47% 45% Bush 41 78 14 31 45 37 35 Nader 6 3 2 15 7 5 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 7 5 4 10 6 8 10



9. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from Pennsylvannia - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


A lot 16% 21% 11% 17% 16% 16% 19% Some 34 36 37 31 37 32 32 Only a little 31 25 38 32 29 34 31 None at all 18 17 15 20 18 18 18 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 - -



10. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Hoeffel 37% 13% 58% 39% 31% 42% 41% Specter 49 75 29 46 55 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 11 9 10 10 10 12 12



11. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 34% 69% 9% 24% 38% 31% 27% Unfavorable 42 11 68 47 40 44 49 Mixed 22 19 22 28 20 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - - - 2 - - REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 -



12. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 32% 10% 56% 24% 29% 34% 31% Unfavorable 27 50 5 26 27 26 20 Mixed 31 31 31 34 32 31 36 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 8 16 11 9 14 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 -



13. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 14% 12% 10% 27% 17% 12% 13% Unfavorable 31 32 37 21 32 30 32 Mixed 25 21 26 30 26 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 29 33 26 22 24 33 29 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1 1



14. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 13% 5% 18% 16% 13% 13% 14% Unfavorable 7 11 5 4 7 7 6 Mixed 11 10 8 16 13 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 68 72 68 63 66 70 74 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 1 1



15. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 32% 40% 29% 28% 33% 31% 33% Unfavorable 24 19 30 22 23 24 30 Mixed 35 34 31 38 34 35 28 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 9 12 9 9 9 REFUSED - 1 - - - - -



16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Very satisfied 4% 6% 5% 1% 5% 4% 7% Smwht satisfied 52 54 49 56 50 53 45 Smwht dissatisfied 31 29 33 28 34 28 32 Very dissatisfied 11 10 11 13 9 13 16 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 2 1



17. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president the situation in Iraq, the economy, or terrorism?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Iraq 25% 20% 28% 31% 18% 31% 19% Economy 49 40 59 43 51 46 62 Terrorism 22 35 10 21 26 18 18 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 5 4 1



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Bush 41% 76% 14% 33% 45% 37% 31% Kerry 50 16 83 51 47 54 58 DK/NA 9 9 3 16 8 10 11



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Bush 48% 81% 22% 41% 53% 42% 47% Kerry 45 13 74 47 41 48 44 DK/NA 8 6 4 12 5 10 9



20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Bush 54% 85% 29% 52% 60% 49% 52% Kerry 36 11 62 33 31 42 40 DK/NA 9 5 9 15 9 10 8



21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Right thing 42% 70% 19% 36% 51% 35% 43% Wrong thing 51 21 76 58 44 56 50 DK/NA 7 9 6 6 5 9 7



22. How closely have you been following news reports about the abuse of some Iraqi prisoners by American soldiers in Iraq: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Very closely 48% 49% 48% 48% 47% 50% 43% Smwht closely 42 43 40 43 42 42 47 Not too closely 8 6 10 7 9 7 8 Not closely at all 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA - 1 - - 1 - -



23. Do you feel that these incidents are not a big deal, because this kind of thing happens in a war situation or are a big deal, because this kind of abuse is unacceptable no matter what the situation?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Not big deal/War 31% 36% 26% 34% 40% 23% 40% Big deal/Unacceptable 66 59 72 64 57 74 58 DK/NA 3 5 2 1 3 4 2



24. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as: excellent, good, not so good or poor?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Excellent 1% 2% 1% - 2% 1% 2% Good 38 43 33 40 40 35 30 Not so good 43 37 46 45 42 44 43 Poor 16 14 19 12 14 18 24 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 3 2 1