August 18, 2004 - Kerry Holds 5-Point Lead Over Bush In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Military Families Also Back Kerry, Oppose War
Democratic challenger John Kerry holds a 47 - 42 percent lead over President George W. Bush among Pennsylvania voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is little changed from Sen. Kerry's 46 - 41 percent lead over President Bush, with 5 percent for Nader, in a July 14 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe- ack) University.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 52 - 45 percent of the job Bush is doing. By a narrow 48 - 46 percent margin, they say going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

Military veterans or voters with a household member who is a veteran or currently in active duty or reserve service support Kerry 46 - 42 percent, with 6 percent for Nader.

These voters from military families say 54 - 41 percent that the war is wrong.

"Despite a month of relentless campaigning by the Republican and Democratic camps in Pennsylvania, the presidential horse race remains virtually the same. Sen. Kerry gets credit for keeping his lead, but the President gets points for holding his own despite the war's unpopularity and the economy's uncertainty," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In what may prove to be damaging news for the President, the anti-war attitude among voters from military households in Pennsylvania is greater than the attitude among all voters. Kerry hold the same slim lead among these voters that he has among the electorate in general," Richards added.

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 25 percent list the economy as the most important problem facing the nation today, followed by 20 percent who list the war in Iraq, 17 percent who list terrorism and 10 percent for health care.

Looking at which candidate does best on key issues, Pennsylvania voters say:
  • 51 - 40 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 48 - 44 percent that Bush would do better on the situation in Iraq;
  • 52 - 38 percent that Bush would do better on terrorism;
  • 55 - 32 percent that Kerry would do better on health care. Senate Race
In his reelection bid, incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter holds a 48 - 33 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, compared to 51 - 36 percent July 14.

Pennsylvania voters give Specter a 34 - 23 percent favorability rating, with 31 percent mixed and 11 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Hoeffel gets a 13 - 9 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 66 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"It's summer and Pennsylvania voters aren't paying much attention to the Senate race. We'll have to wait until after Labor Day to see whether Congressman Hoeffel can get his name recognition out of the doldrums," Richards said.

From August 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,430 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 50 32 18 Jul 13, 2004 54 30 15 Jun 24, 2004 51 31 18 May 27, 2004 49 31 19 Apr 22, 2004 46 33 22 Mar 18, 2004 46 35 19 Feb 19,2004 48 36 16 Dec 16, 2003 46 34 19 Oct 16, 2003 50 28 22 Aug 6, 2003 51 29 21 May 23, 2003 49 27 24 Apr 10, 2003 51 19 30 Feb 20, 2003 54 12 33



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 42 37 22 Jul 13, 2004 45 37 18 Jun 24, 2004 43 38 20 May 27, 2004 40 39 21 Apr 22, 2004 37 38 25 Mar 18, 2004 40 40 20 Feb 19,2004 40 39 21 Dec 16, 2003 38 44 18 Oct 16, 2003 43 37 19 Aug 6, 2003 41 39 20 May 23, 2003 45 33 22 Apr 10, 2003 49 24 27



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 50 36 15 Jul 14, 2004 51 35 14 Jun 24, 2004 51 38 10 May 27, 2004 48 41 11 Apr 22, 2004 47 36 17 Mar 18, 2004 49 36 15 Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 52 30 18 Jul 14, 2004 53 28 19 Jun 24, 2004 52 29 18 May 27, 2004 53 28 19 Apr 22, 2004 47 30 22 Mar 18, 2004 51 28 21 Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Is your opinion of (United States Senator) Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or havent't you heard enough about him?

                                                Haven't
                        Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


Aug 18, 2004 34 23 31 11 1 Jul 14, 2004 37 23 29 10 1 Jun 24, 2004 36 21 30 12 1 May 27, 2004 32 24 35 9 - Mar 18, 2004 35 24 30 9 1 Feb 18, 2004 41 22 28 9 - Dec 17, 2003 43 21 26 10 1 Oct 15, 2003 43 22 24 10 1 Aug 7, 2003 47 19 27 7 1 May 22, 2003 47 16 24 12 1 Apr 10, 2003 41 18 22 18 1 Feb 21, 2003 42 15 27 15 1



TREND: Is your opinion of (Pennsylvania Congressman) Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                Haven't
                        Fav     Unfav   Mixed   heard   Ref


Aug 18, 2004 13 9 11 66 2 Jul 14, 2004 12 7 14 66 1 Jun 24, 2004 10 7 9 73 1 May 27, 2004 13 7 11 68 1 Mar 18, 2004 10 6 14 70 1 Feb 18, 2004 12 3 9 76 1 Dec 17, 2003 13 4 11 72 1 Oct 15, 2003 11 4 10 74 - Aug 7, 2003 12 4 10 72 2



TREND: Suppose/If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        JH      AS      Smone   Wldn't         
                        Dem     Rep     Else    Vote    DK/NA  


Aug 18, 2004 33 48 1 2 15 Jul 14, 2004 36 51 1 2 10 Jun 24, 2004 35 50 1 2 13 May 27, 2004 37 49 1 2 11 Mar 18, 2004 29 45 3 3 20 Dec 17, 2003 32 50 1 2 14 Oct 15, 2003 33 50 2 2 13 Aug 7, 2003 29 53 2 2 15



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 45 52 3 Jul 14, 2004 45 52 3 Jun 24, 2004 45 53 2 May 27, 2004 41 55 5 Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                        Smone   Wldn't         
                        JK      GWB     Else    Vote    DK/NA  


Aug 18, 2004 48 43 1 2 6 Jul 14, 2004 49 42 1 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 49 43 2 1 5 May 27, 2004 45 42 2 2 9 Apr 21, 2004 42 46 2 2 7 Mar 17, 2004 45 44 3 - 7 Feb 18, 2004 50 45 1 1 3



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
                                                Smone   Wldn't         
                        JK      GWB     RN      Else    Vote    DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 47 42 4 - 1 6 Jul 14, 2004 46 41 5 - 1 7 Jun 24, 2004 44 43 7 1 1 4 May 27, 2004 44 41 6 - 2 7 Apr 21, 2004 39 45 8 1 1 7 Mar 17, 2004 40 44 7 1 - 8



TREND: Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                Hvn't
                        Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused


Aug 18, 2004 41 40 18 1 - Jul 14, 2004 39 42 18 1 - Jun 24, 2004 39 42 17 2 1 May 27, 2004 34 42 22 1 1 Apr 21, 2004 39 37 22 1 - Mar 17, 2004 41 36 21 1 1



TREND: Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                Hvn't
                        Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 


Aug 18, 2004 37 31 25 7 - Jul 14, 2004 35 28 28 9 - Jun 24, 2004 33 30 29 8 1 May 27, 2004 32 27 31 10 1 Apr 21, 2004 24 31 27 17 - Mar 17, 2004 28 27 26 18 1



TREND: Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                Hvn't
                        Fav     UnFav   Mixed   Hrd     Refused 


Aug 18, 2004 12 34 21 31 2 Jul 14, 2004 13 30 24 31 2 Jun 24, 2004 16 26 23 34 1 May 27, 2004 14 31 25 29 1 Apr 21, 2004 13 29 20 37 2 Mar 17, 2004 15 29 21 33 2



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Right   Wrong   DK/NA


Aug 18, 2004 46 48 6 Jun 24, 2004 43 50 7 May 27, 2004 42 51 7 Apr 21, 2004 49 45 6 Mar 17, 2004 52 39 9



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 50% 36% 63% 50% 50% 49% 47% Disapprove 32 48 19 31 36 29 33 DK/NA 18 16 19 19 14 22 19



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 42% 46% 41% 39% 42% 41% 41% Disapprove 37 35 38 37 40 33 40 DK/NA 22 19 21 24 17 25 19



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 50% 55% 50% 43% 49% 50% 50% Disapprove 36 33 35 41 40 32 37 DK/NA 15 12 15 16 12 17 13



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 52% 76% 40% 40% 54% 50% 53% Disapprove 30 13 39 39 32 28 31 DK/NA 18 11 22 21 14 22 15



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Approve 45% 83% 15% 41% 48% 43% 44% Disapprove 52 16 81 57 49 54 54 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 3 3 1



6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


A lot 53% 52% 52% 58% 57% 50% 59% Some 32 35 31 27 29 35 27 Only a little 12 10 14 10 10 13 10 None at all 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 DK/NA - - - 1 - - 1



7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Kerry 48% 12% 79% 50% 44% 52% 49% Bush 43 83 13 37 47 40 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 3 6 10 6 6 5



8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Kerry 47% 12% 78% 45% 42% 51% 46% Bush 42 81 12 36 47 38 42 Nader 4 2 3 9 5 3 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 3 6 7 5 6 5

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 56% 70% 44% 47% 46% 44% 34% Bush 38 19 46 42 40 41 54 Nader 1 6 3 4 7 3 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 7 9 6

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 46% 48% 68% 54% 20% 88% 11% Bush 42 43 20 34 71 5 81 Nader 4 4 6 4 3 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 6 3 5

Age in years............... Union 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ HsHlds

Kerry 46% 47% 46% 47% 53% Bush 44 42 44 40 34 Nader 6 4 3 4 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 1 7 6 8 8

Annual HsHold Income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K

Kerry 49% 47% 44% 48% Bush 39 42 47 46 Nader 4 5 2 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - DK/NA 6 5 5 2



9. Most people do not vote in every election. How likely is it that you will vote in the Presidential election in November - would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, possibly not vote, or definitely not vote?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Definitely vote 88% 93% 88% 83% 89% 87% 91% Probably vote 9 5 9 14 8 10 6 Possibly not vote 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 Definitely not vote 1 - - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA - - - - 1 - -



10. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from Pennsylvania - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


A lot 14% 16% 12% 13% 17% 11% 15% Some 30 32 31 29 32 29 34 Only a little 32 33 34 30 30 34 24 None at all 23 19 24 28 21 26 28 DK/NA - - - - - - -



12. If the election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Hoeffel 33% 12% 54% 32% 32% 35% 32% Specter 48 73 31 42 52 45 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 DK/NA 15 11 13 23 12 18 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 43% 49% 26% 33% 34% 30% 26% Specter 45 32 54 53 42 46 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 4 1 1 4 2 DK/NA 11 14 16 11 20 19 18



13. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Favorable 41% 77% 14% 32% 43% 38% 39% Unfavorable 40 9 65 46 40 41 44 Mixed 18 13 20 22 16 21 16 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 - - 1 - REFUSED - - - - - - -



14. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Favorable 37% 9% 62% 36% 32% 41% 36% Unfavorable 31 63 7 26 36 27 31 Mixed 25 22 23 31 25 25 27 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 7 7 7 5 REFUSED - - - - 1 - -



15. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Favorable 12% 11% 9% 20% 15% 9% 13% Unfavorable 34 34 39 25 39 30 33 Mixed 21 22 17 26 21 21 23 Hvn't hrd enough 31 31 34 26 23 39 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 1



16. Is your opinion of Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Favorable 13% 7% 17% 14% 14% 12% 12% Unfavorable 9 16 4 6 12 5 7 Mixed 11 12 10 11 12 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough 66 64 68 67 60 72 65 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 1



17. Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Favorable 34% 43% 30% 29% 36% 32% 32% Unfavorable 23 19 25 25 24 21 24 Mixed 31 32 29 35 32 30 33 Hvn't hrd enough 11 6 15 10 7 15 12 REFUSED 1 - 2 - 1 1 -



18. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Very satisfied 7% 15% 1% 4% 10% 4% 7% Smwht satisfied 36 56 21 34 36 36 37 Smwht dissatisfied 32 22 41 32 30 34 31 Very dissatisfied 25 6 37 30 23 26 25 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - -



19. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Economy Total: 25% 19% 31% 25% 29% 22% 25% Economy general 9 8 11 9 12 7 11 Unemployment/jobs 12 8 15 12 14 10 10 Business/Jobs leaving 4 3 5 4 3 5 4

War 20% 14% 25% 24% 14% 26% 26%

Terrorism Total: 17% 28% 10% 16% 20% 15% 15% Terrorism general 12 21 7 11 15 10 11 Security/Safety 5 7 3 5 5 5 4

Healthcare Total: 10% 8% 11% 7% 7% 11% 7% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 8 7 9 5 6 9 5 Prescription costs 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Medicare 1 - 1 1 - 1 -

Politicians Total: 5% 3% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Political corruption 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Bush administration 3 1 4 3 2 3 2

Lack of ethics/Morality 2 4 - 2 3 2 3 Abortion 1 2 - - 1 1 - Education general 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Family breakdown/ Family values 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 Foreign affairs/ policy general 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 Immigration 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 Lack of religion 1 1 - - - 1 1 Poverty/Homelessness 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 Priorities sd/be at home, not abroad 1 - 1 - - 1 - Welfare 1 - 1 1 1 1 1

Other 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 2 2



20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 32% 61% 10% 28% 36% 29% 32% Kerry 55 24 81 59 52 59 55 DK/NA 13 15 9 13 13 13 13



21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?
                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 40% 78% 11% 34% 43% 37% 40% Kerry 51 14 81 56 48 53 49 DK/NA 10 8 9 10 9 10 11



22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 48% 86% 19% 41% 54% 42% 47% Kerry 44 11 71 48 39 48 45 DK/NA 8 4 10 11 7 9 8



23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Bush 52% 89% 23% 49% 58% 47% 52% Kerry 38 7 65 41 34 42 40 DK/NA 9 4 12 10 8 11 7



24. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Excellent 2% 4% - 2% 3% - 2% Good 34 61 15 28 39 30 36 Not so good 44 30 54 47 39 48 41 Poor 20 5 31 23 19 21 21 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 -



25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                                                                        Military
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHlds


Right thing 46% 80% 21% 37% 49% 43% 41% Wrong thing 48 16 71 58 46 51 54 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 5 6 5