February 21, 2003 - Specter Has Best Approval In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Unnamed Democrat Would Edge Bush In '04
Republican Sen. Arlen Specter has a 60 - 21 percent approval rating among Pennsylvania voters, the highest score of any statewide leader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters approve 56 - 21 percent of the job Sen. Rick Santorum is doing and 54 - 12 percent of their new Governor, Ed Rendell.

President George W. Bush gets a 53 - 41 percent approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In an early look at a possible 2004 reelection bid, Sen. Specter tops an unnamed Democratic candidate 41 - 35 percent. Republicans back Specter 75 - 6 percent, while Democrats go with their candidate 61 - 17 percent and independent voters split 33 - 31 percent, with the edge to Specter.

"Sen. Specter seems a favorite for reelection at this point. Specter has overwhelming Republican support, while holding his own among independents and labor households. But he falls short of a majority this early in the cycle and with two in 10 undecided, a strong challenger could make it a horse race," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

By a 42 - 15 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Specter, with 27 percent mixed and 15 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

By contrast, 87 percent of Pennsylvania voters do not know enough about Rep. Pat Toomey, a possible Republican primary challenger, to form an opinion.

In the '04 Presidential matchup, an unnamed Democratic candidate edges Bush 46 - 43 percent among Pennsylvania voters. Republicans go with Bush 83 - 9 percent, as Democrats stay with the party 79 - 14 percent and independents go Democratic 46 - 35 percent. Men vote Republican 48 - 42 percent and women vote Democratic 50 - 39 percent.

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton runs for President, she leads the Democratic pack with 37 percent, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 15 percent, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 14 percent, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 11 percent, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 6 percent, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 3 percent and Rev. Al Sharpton with 1 percent.

With Sen. Clinton out of the race, Lieberman leads with 28 percent, followed by Kerry with 22 percent, Gephardt with 12 percent, Edwards with 9 percent, Sharpton with 6 percent and Dean with 4 percent.

"Running almost even with a yet unnamed Democratic challenger, President Bush is making Pennsylvania a key battleground of the presidential election," Richards said.

"On the Democratic side, Sen. Lieberman holds the early lead over Sen. Kerry -- unless Sen. Clinton changes her mind and gets in the race."

From February 12 - 18 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,099 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 429 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                    
                                                               Union 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 60% 61% 63% 55% 61% 58% 61% Disapprove 21 20 22 20 23 20 23 DK/NA 19 20 15 24 16 22 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 66% 59% 55% 59% 61% 63% 58% Disapprove 22 23 26 22 18 19 20 DK/NA 12 18 19 19 20 18 23



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                     
                                                               Union  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds 


Approve 56% 74% 44% 52% 59% 53% 56% Disapprove 21 7 32 18 22 19 26 DK/NA 24 19 23 30 19 28 18

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 51% 45% 53% 53% 58% 60% 63% Disapprove 33 19 21 19 14 28 16 DK/NA 15 37 27 28 28 11 21



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                     
                                                               Union  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds 


Approve 53% 84% 29% 53% 57% 49% 44% Disapprove 41 11 65 40 38 43 50 DK/NA 6 5 6 7 5 7 5

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 49% 34% 57% 47% 59% 52% 64% Disapprove 43 55 39 48 37 39 31 DK/NA 8 11 4 5 5 9 5



5. If Arlen Specter runs for re-election to the Senate in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Specter or for the Democratic party's candidate for Senator?
                                                                      
                                                               Union  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds 


Specter 41% 75% 17% 33% 49% 33% 34% Democrat 35 6 61 31 29 40 37

OTHER(VOL) 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 22 16 19 32 20 23 27

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter 39% 27% 38% 42% 49% 42% 45% Democrat 32 53 35 39 26 36 28 OTHER(VOL) 2 2 3 2 1 5 3 DK/NA 27 18 24 17 24 18 24



6. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      
                                                               Union  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds 


Favorable 5% 7% 4% 4% 6% 4% 5% Unfavorable 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 Mixed 5 4 5 7 6 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 87 87 89 85 84 90 86 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 3% 2% 16% 4% 5% 4% 3% Unfavorable - 3 4 - 1 - 1 Mixed 2 4 8 4 7 2 5 Hvn't hrd enough 94 89 70 88 86 93 90 REFUSED 1 2 2 3 2 1 2



7. Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                      
                                                               Union  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds 


Favorable 42% 49% 37% 44% 48% 37% 40% Unfavorable 15 12 16 14 17 13 17 Mixed 27 27 28 26 23 31 29 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 18 15 11 18 14 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 47% 37% 46% 43% 42% 38% 43% Unfavorable 16 13 14 17 15 11 14 Mixed 25 26 20 29 27 32 29 Hvn't hrd enough 11 21 18 11 13 18 14 REFUSED 2 2 - - 3 1 -



9. Now I'm going to name six Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all six names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, or the Reverend Al Sharpton?
                         
                     Dem 


Lieberman 28% Kerry 22 Gephardt 12 Edwards 9 Dean 4 Sharpton 6 DK/NA 20



10. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate or president in 2004? New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, or the Reverend Al Sharpton?
                        
                     Dem


Clinton 37% Lieberman 15 Kerry 14 Gephardt 11 Edwards 6 Dean 3 Sharpton 1 DK/NA 13



11. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?

                                                                     
                                                               Union 
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Bush 43% 83% 14% 35% 48% 39% 33% Democrat 46 9 79 46 42 50 58 OTHER(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 7 6 16 9 10 6

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Bush 43% 23% 41% 41% 50% 41% 53% Democrat 50 66 48 46 39 49 36 OTHER(VOL) 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 8 10 12 10 9 10