August 7, 2003 - Specter Approval Slips, But He Is Strong Candidate, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Tops All Possible Dem Challengers
Republican Sen. Arlen Specter has a 57 - 27 percent approval rating among Pennsylvania voters, down from his 60 - 21 percent approval February 21, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In an early look at the 2004 U.S. Senate campaign, Sen. Specter leads U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, his possible Democratic challenger 53 - 29 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In a question where no other candidate is named, Pennsylvania voters say 46 - 40 percent that Specter should be re-elected next year.

Voters approve 56 - 28 percent of the job Sen. Rick Santorum is doing and President George W. Bush gets a 60 - 35 percent approval rating.

"Sen. Specter enters his race for re-election in solid shape with a 57 percent approval rating, neck and neck with his Republican Senate colleague and almost as high as President Bush, who will lead the GOP ticket. Even though his numbers are down at this early stage, there is no indication he is in any kind of trouble with the voters," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Both his would-be primary opponent, Congressman Pat Toomey and the leading Democrat against him, Congressman Hoeffel, have serious name recognition problems outside their districts. These are the benchmarks for where this race kicks off," Richards added. Presidential Matchup

Among Democratic voters, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman leads the presidential pack with 26 percent, followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 15 percent, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 14 percent and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 9 percent. No other candidate tops 6 percent.

Bush easily beats any possible Democratic challenger:
  • 54 - 38 percent over Lieberman;
  • 55 - 37 percent over Kerry;
  • 56 - 36 percent over Gephardt;
  • 57 - 34 percent over Dean.
Bush gets 22 - 26 percent of Democratic votes in each case.

"Even though he lost the state last time around, Pennsylvania continues to be Bush country. No Democratic candidate has really caught fire yet," Richards said.

From July 30 - August 4 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,037 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 372 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA
                       
Aug 7, 2003            60%     35%      5%
May 22, 2003           64      31       5 
Apr 8, 2003            67      28       5
Feb 21, 2003           53      41       6
Sept. 18, 2002         69      26       6
Jul 24, 2002           68      25       7
Jun 5, 2002            73      21       6




TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 7, 2003 56% 28% 17% May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Aug 7, 2003 57% 27% 16% May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 57% 63% 53% 55% 58% 56% 53% Disapprove 27 22 31 27 29 25 29 DK/NA 16 15 16 18 13 19 19

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 57% 48% 62% 52% 62% 59% 59% Disapprove 31 31 20 35 15 28 25 DK/NA 12 20 18 13 23 13 16



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 56% 74% 42% 52% 58% 54% 46% Disapprove 28 12 40 33 29 26 40 DK/NA 17 14 18 16 13 20 14

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 54% 36% 55% 53% 67% 63% 62% Disapprove 39 39 32 28 15 23 21 DK/NA 7 26 13 19 18 13 17



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 60% 88% 34% 59% 65% 56% 49% Disapprove 35 8 59 38 32 38 48 DK/NA 5 3 6 3 3 6 3

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 60% 43% 59% 61% 67% 56% 67% Disapprove 38 53 38 31 28 42 28 DK/NA 2 4 3 8 5 3 5



6. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

                     Dem


Lieberman 26 Kerry 15 Gephardt 14 Edwards 6 Dean 9 Sharpton 2 Graham 3 Moseley-Braun 6 Kucinich 3 DK/NA 16



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Lieberman 38% 8% 68% 37% 32% 43% 48% Bush 54 88 22 54 59 49 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 5 9

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Lieberman 42% 60% 39% 37% 31% 32% 31% Bush 51 32 54 55 58 57 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 - 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 3 4 6 5 6 8 3



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Kerry 37% 7% 69% 33% 33% 41% 47% Bush 55 88 22 60 61 50 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 4 6 6

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 41% 55% 38% 32% 32% 39% 30% Bush 51 39 57 57 57 57 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 2 5 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 5 5 4 9 4 3 4



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Gephardt 36% 6% 68% 30% 32% 41% 46% Bush 56 89 23 60 61 51 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 6 5 6 7 5 6 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Gephardt 38% 52% 33% 38% 31% 34% 31% Bush 54 38 57 54 62 57 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 - 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 7 8 7 3 6 4



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Dean 34% 5% 63% 31% 30% 37% 42% Bush 57 90 26 59 62 53 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 4 9 6 6 8 10

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Dean 40% 50% 30% 35% 31% 29% 28% Bush 54 43 60 55 59 61 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 4 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 DK/NA 3 7 10 9 6 9 5



11. Arlen Specter will be up for re-election in 2004. Would you like to see Arlen Specter re-elected senator, or would you rather see someone else elected senator?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Specter 46% 49% 46% 43% 47% 46% 44% Someone else 40 35 42 43 41 39 44 DK/NA 14 16 11 13 13 15 12

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter 48% 41% 52% 43% 60% 43% 45% Someone else 38 44 39 44 25 48 39 DK/NA 14 16 9 13 15 9 16



12. Suppose the general election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Hoeffel 29% 9% 51% 24% 28% 29% 32% Specter 53 72 35 52 55 50 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 15 15 12 19 13 16 18

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 24% 45% 28% 37% 20% 25% 22% Specter 62 38 53 52 57 49 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 - 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 2 2 4 3 DK/NA 9 17 14 6 18 22 18



13. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 8% 11% 6% 7% 11% 6% 8% Unfavorable 3 2 3 3 3 2 4 Mixed 8 7 7 10 8 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 78 77 81 77 75 82 79 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 3 4 3

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 7% 10% 14% 10% 1% 3% 9% Unfavorable - - 7 4 1 - 3 Mixed 5 1 16 6 6 14 7 Hvn't hrd enough 84 81 60 75 93 80 78 REFUSED 4 7 2 4 - 3 2



14. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 12% 8% 17% 8% 16% 9% 13% Unfavorable 4 7 1 4 5 3 2 Mixed 10 7 12 10 10 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 75 67 77 68 76 74 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 2 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 2% 32% 6% 30% 2% 4% 4% Unfavorable 4 6 2 13 - - - Mixed 8 20 6 16 7 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 82 38 84 39 90 93 86 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 - - 3



15. Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 47% 53% 41% 49% 49% 45% 48% Unfavorable 19 16 23 16 20 17 20 Mixed 27 25 27 30 23 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 9 4 7 7 5 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 46% 43% 53% 43% 55% 42% 48% Unfavorable 21 19 16 24 12 18 18 Mixed 27 25 20 29 25 29 27 Hvn't hrd enough 4 10 11 3 8 10 6 REFUSED 2 2 - - - - 1



16. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 45% 63% 31% 39% 49% 41% 35% Unfavorable 22 8 33 27 22 22 31 Mixed 22 21 24 22 20 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 12 12 9 12 9 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 43% 21% 49% 43% 54% 48% 51% Unfavorable 30 29 17 22 13 23 20 Mixed 22 28 19 25 24 22 18 Hvn't hrd enough 3 20 15 9 9 7 11 REFUSED 2 2 - 1 - - -