December 17, 2003 - Dean Surges To Head Of Dem Pack In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Balk At Bush Decision To Lift Steel Tariff
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has surged to the head of the Democratic Presidential pack in Pennsylvania, with 28 percent among Democratic voters, 11 points ahead of his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Dean got just 5 percent of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania in an October 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Chasing Dean in the Democratic primary race are:
  • Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 17 percent;
  • Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 10 percent;
  • Former Gen. Wesley Clark with 9 percent;
  • Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 7 percent.
No other Democrat breaks 4 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of President Bush's decision to end tariffs on foreign steel, but 75 percent say this will not affect their Presidential vote.

"In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, the Howard Dean bandwagon is starting to roll in Pennsylvania. Sen. Lieberman and Rep. Gephardt are holding on, but Gen. Clark and Sen. Kerry are back in single digits," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"A slim majority of Pennsylvania voters are upset with President Bush over his decision to lift tariffs on imported steel, but the decision appears to have little effect on his approval rating. In a close race, however, the Presidential vote in Pennsylvania next year could swing on the 9 percent of Republicans and 20 percent of independents who say they are less likely to vote for him because of his tariff decision," Richards said.

Pennsylvania voters approve 53 - 43 percent of the job Bush is doing, compared to 51 - 44 percent in the October 15 Quinnipiac University poll.

But Bush is at the 50 percent mark in head-to-head matchups with any Democratic challenger except Dean, who trails the President 49 - 43 percent. Bush leads in other matchups:
  • 50 - 43 percent over Lieberman;
  • 50 - 42 percent over Kerry;
  • 50 - 41 percent over Clark;
  • 51 - 42 percent over Gephardt.
Pennsylvania voters split 46 - 44 percent on whether they want Republican incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter reelected or whether they want someone else. But Specter leads U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel 50 - 32 percent in a general election matchup.

"At first blush, Sen. Specter may look vulnerable in his bid for re-election, but when you match him up with his announced Democratic challenger, it's no contest. The problem that both Rep. Pat Toomey has in his primary challenge and Rep. Hoeffel has in the general election is that more than 70 percent of Pennsylvania voters don't know enough about them to have an opinion," Richards said.

From December 11 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,092 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 373 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Dec 17, 2003 57% 31% 12% Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Dec 17, 2003 56% 29% 15% Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Dec 17, 2003 53% 43% 4% Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 57% 65% 53% 52% 55% 59% 52% Disapprove 31 25 31 40 36 28 37 DK/NA 12 10 15 8 10 13 12

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 54% 45% 64% 56% 59% 59% 59% Disapprove 38 38 24 35 30 30 27 DK/NA 8 17 12 9 10 11 14



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 56% 74% 41% 51% 59% 53% 50% Disapprove 29 11 42 38 30 28 39 DK/NA 15 14 17 11 11 18 11

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 50% 45% 62% 55% 64% 59% 56% Disapprove 39 33 24 32 23 28 26 DK/NA 11 21 14 13 13 13 18



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 53% 85% 24% 47% 58% 49% 52% Disapprove 43 13 72 49 39 47 43 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 3 4 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 43% 37% 62% 50% 49% 55% 63% Disapprove 55 60 34 49 45 40 32 DK/NA 2 3 4 2 6 4 5



6. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                         
                      Dem 


Lieberman 17% Kerry 7 Gephardt 10 Edwards 4 Dean 28 Sharpton 3 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 1 Clark 9 DK/NA 18



7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Clark 41% 10% 71% 48% 36% 46% 43% Bush 50 85 19 43 55 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 3 2 1 3 DK/NA 6 3 7 5 5 7 5

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Clark 57% 56% 34% 42% 41% 38% 31% Bush 39 35 58 49 51 52 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 2 5 7 5 5 7 7



8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Lieberman 43% 11% 75% 46% 37% 48% 43% Bush 50 85 18 46 55 46 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 5 4 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Lieberman 54% 50% 40% 45% 44% 39% 36% Bush 41 38 52 48 49 54 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 4 3 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 5 5 4 4 5 4



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 42% 11% 73% 48% 38% 46% 44% Bush 50 84 19 45 54 47 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 - 1 1 2 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 5 5 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 56% 52% 37% 44% 40% 38% 36% Bush 40 35 55 50 53 53 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 4 2 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 - 2 - DK/NA 3 7 6 3 7 6 5



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Gephardt 42% 12% 71% 47% 37% 46% 43% Bush 51 83 21 44 56 47 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 5 6 4 6 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Gephardt 56% 53% 38% 45% 42% 36% 33% Bush 42 35 56 48 52 57 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 - 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 2 7 5 4 6 6 5



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Dean 43% 10% 75% 49% 39% 46% 46% Bush 49 86 16 40 53 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 5 6 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Dean 54% 56% 36% 44% 43% 42% 35% Bush 41 34 56 49 46 48 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 4 2 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 6 8 6



12. Arlen Specter will be up for re-election in 2004. Would you like to see Arlen Specter re-elected senator, or would you rather see someone else elected senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Specter 46% 53% 41% 42% 44% 47% 42% Someone else 44 37 48 50 46 42 50 DK/NA 11 10 11 8 10 11 8

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter 43% 34% 56% 44% 43% 50% 48% Someone else 49 52 33 48 50 37 40 DK/NA 8 14 11 9 8 13 12



13. Suppose the general election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Hoeffel 32% 15% 49% 36% 31% 34% 36% Specter 50 69 35 42 53 49 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 12 18 12 15 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 32% 53% 24% 39% 30% 28% 23% Specter 50 31 53 47 53 51 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 - 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 3 4 - 2 2 DK/NA 14 13 18 10 14 16 14



14. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 10% 13% 7% 8% 11% 8% 10% Unfavorable 3 2 4 3 4 3 4 Mixed 7 8 6 6 9 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 79 76 83 81 75 82 80 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 9% 6% 21% 7% 8% 8% 10% Unfavorable 2 3 8 2 - 2 5 Mixed 6 12 13 7 4 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 79 58 84 87 80 80 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 1



15. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 13% 10% 16% 10% 14% 12% 13% Unfavorable 4 6 1 6 6 2 2 Mixed 11 10 11 13 11 11 11 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 72 71 69 74 73 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 3% 25% 7% 28% 2% 10% 6% Unfavorable 1 7 2 11 1 1 2 Mixed 7 23 5 18 5 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 89 44 85 42 92 82 84 REFUSED - 1 1 1 - 1 -



16. Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 43% 52% 38% 36% 42% 44% 39% Unfavorable 21 17 21 28 23 20 25 Mixed 26 23 29 27 26 25 31 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 9 9 10 5 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 45% 29% 51% 43% 38% 38% 48% Unfavorable 22 24 18 25 23 20 19 Mixed 28 22 20 28 26 31 25 Hvn't hrd enough 5 24 12 5 10 10 8 REFUSED - 2 - - 2 1 -



31. President Bush has announced he is lifting tariffs on imported foreign steel. Do you approve of disapprove of the president's action?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 36% 44% 24% 42% 43% 30% 27% Disapprove 52 42 64 50 48 55 64 DK/NA 12 14 12 9 9 15 9

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 21% 33% 40% 46% 28% 26% 40% Disapprove 69 48 54 41 63 65 45 DK/NA 10 18 7 13 9 9 15



32. Does the president's decision to lift tariffs on imported foreign steel make you more or less likely to vote for him for re-election or doesn't it effect your vote at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


More likely 3% 5% 2% 4% 5% 2% 5% Less likely 18 9 27 20 17 19 25 Doesn't effect vote 75 82 68 74 76 74 67 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 2 4 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

More likely 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 9% 3% Less likely 24 22 24 14 19 23 12 Doesn't effect vote 70 72 70 80 77 61 82 DK/NA 2 2 4 4 2 6 3