October 29, 2002 - Fisher Can't Dent Rendell's Big Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Is Putting Pennsylvania Race On Ice
Democrat Ed Rendell leads Republican State Attorney General Mike Fisher 54 - 35 percent among likely voters in the final week of the race for Pennsylvania governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The survey includes voters who are leaning towards a candidate.

This is unchanged from Rendell's 56 - 36 percent lead in an October 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Rendell leads 79 - 13 percent among Democratic likely voters and 55 - 34 percent among independent voters. Fisher leads 63 - 25 percent among Republican voters. Rendell also leads 54 - 35 percent among men and 54 - 36 percent among women.

"Entering the closing week, Mayor Ed Rendell continues to dominate the race for Governor of Pennsylvania, as he pretty much has since winning the Democratic nomination back in June. It's difficult to see where Fisher can close the gap in the final days," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Rendell is so far ahead because he has overcome the historic problem Philadelphia candidates face when they run statewide. Even in the two areas where Fisher is leading - the northwest and central parts of Pennsylvania - fewer than one in four voters hold Rendell's record as mayor of Philadelphia against him," Richards added.

"Meanwhile, 61 percent of the voters statewide say Fisher's record as Attorney General does not make any difference in the campaign."

Rendell's favorability is 47 - 21 percent, with 25 percent mixed and 3 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion, unchanged from October 17.

Fisher gets a 30 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 31 percent mixed and 16 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion, an improvement from his negative 24 - 28 percent favorability rating October 17.

Rendell's record as Philadelphia mayor makes 35 percent of Pennsylvania voters more likely to vote for him, while 23 percent are less likely and 36 percent say it makes no difference in how they vote.

Only 20 percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for Fisher because of his record as State Attorney General, while 12 percent are less likely and 61 percent say this record makes no difference in how they vote.

From October 21 -27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 636 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

1. If the election for Governor were being held today would you vote for -- Ed Rendell the Democrat or Mike Fisher the Republican? 1a. (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Rendell or Fisher?

                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners)..................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 54% 25% 79% 55% 54% 54% 59% Fisher 35 63 13 34 35 36 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 9 12 6 7 9 10 9

2. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice q1) or might you change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 87% 83% Might change 12 16 DK/NA 1 -

3. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice q1), or more a vote against (other candidate q1)?

                          LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters


For candidate 85% 58% Against other candidate 10 35 DK/NA 5 6

4. Is your opinion of Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 47% 25% 68% 50% 50% 44% 56% Unfavorable 21 39 6 23 23 20 16 Mixed 25 28 23 23 21 29 23 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 REFUSED 4 5 1 2 3 4 1

5. Is your opinion of Mike Fisher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 30% 53% 13% 27% 32% 28% 25% Unfavorable 18 7 28 20 18 18 17 Mixed 31 25 36 35 30 33 40 Hvn't hrd enough 16 12 22 14 15 17 15 REFUSED 4 4 2 4 5 4 3

6. Regardless of who you support, who do you think will be elected governor of Pennsylvania in November -- Ed Rendell the Democrat or Mike Fisher the Republican?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 75% 65% 86% 75% 78% 73% 82% Fisher 11 20 6 10 10 12 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 13 16 8 13 11 15 10

7. Do you think it will be a close race or will (candidate choice q6.) win by quite a lot?
                          LIKELY VOTERS......
                          Rendell     Fisher
                          Wins q6     Wins q6 


Close race 36% 84% Wins by a lot 57 10 DK/NA 7 6

8. Does Ed Rendell's record as Mayor of Philadelphia make you more likely to vote for Rendell, less likely to vote for Rendell, or doesn't it make much difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


More likely 35% 24% 44% 42% 35% 35% 33% Less likely 23 35 13 24 24 23 29 Doesn't make diff 36 36 39 31 35 37 35 DK/NA 5 6 4 3 6 5 3

9. Does Mike Fisher's record as attorney general of Pennsylvania make you more likely to vote for Fisher, less likely to vote for Fisher, or doesn't it make much difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


More likely 20% 34% 11% 17% 21% 19% 15% Less likely 12 5 14 19 11 12 13 Doesn't make diff 61 52 70 59 63 60 65 DK/NA 7 8 5 5 5 8 6