February 16, 2005 - Casey Leads Santorum In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Gets Negative Approval Rating
Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum trails State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., a possible Democratic challenger, 46 - 41 percent, in an early look at the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. Another 11 percent are undecided.

Sen. Santorum has a 52 - 31 percent approval rating and voters say by almost the same margin that he "deserves to be reelected," the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh- pe-ack) University poll finds.

Santorum would top other possible Democratic challengers:
  • 47 - 39 percent over former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer;
  • 50 - 34 percent over former U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel;
  • 51 - 30 percent over former State Rep. T.J. Rooney.
"This could shape up as the best Senate race in the country in 2006. Count on Democrats to pour in millions of dollars to try to oust a key conservative member of the Republican leadership, and the big GOP money-givers won't be shy in donating to keep Sen. Santorum in office," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"At this early stage, State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., clearly threatens Sen. Santorum's re-election bid.

"Casey edges Santorum in a head-to-head matchup, and both candidates have nearly equal favorable ratings, while Santorum has a much higher unfavorable rating. As an outspoken conservative, Santorum has placed himself at the right end of the political spectrum, with even 12 percent of Republicans saying he is too conservative," Richards added.

"As a conservative Democrat, like his much respected father, Casey takes up the rest of the political spectrum, as independent voters favor Casey 49 - 32 percent. Casey's big problem at this point is to convince possible Democratic rivals to avoid a potentially party-splitting primary."

Voters say 64 - 19 percent they would not like Santorum to run for President in 2008. They do say 60 - 31 percent that his Republican leadership position in the Senate is good for Pennsylvania.

Santorum is "too conservative," 25 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 7 percent say he is "too liberal" and 44 percent say he is "about right." Voters give Santorum a 41 - 24 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed and 16 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Casey gets a 41 - 8 percent favorability rating, with 18 percent mixed and 31 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. Hafer gets a 32 - 12 percent favorability, with 16 percent mixed and 39 percent with no opinion.

Among other possible challengers, 57 percent of voters "don't know enough" about Hoeffel and 84 percent "don't know enough" about T.J. Rooney.

President George W. Bush gets a negative 45 - 51 percent approval rating.

From February 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,250 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 16, 2005 55 34 11 Sep 16, 2004 52 37 12 Aug 18, 2004 50 36 15 Jul 14, 2004 51 35 14 Jun 24, 2004 51 38 10 May 27, 2004 48 41 11 Apr 22, 2004 47 36 17 Mar 18, 2004 49 36 15 Feb 18, 2004 53 32 15 Dec 17, 2003 57 31 12 Oct 15, 2003 54 31 16 Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sep 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 16, 2005 52 31 17 Sep 16, 2004 54 30 16 Aug 18, 2004 52 30 18 Jul 14, 2004 53 28 19 Jun 24, 2004 52 29 18 May 27, 2004 53 28 19 Apr 22, 2004 47 30 22 Mar 18, 2004 51 28 21 Feb 18, 2004 53 27 20 Dec 17, 2003 56 29 15 Oct 15, 2003 54 28 18 Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sep 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Feb 16, 2005 45 51 3 Sep 16, 2004 48 48 3 Aug 18, 2004 45 52 3 Jul 14, 2004 45 52 3 Jun 24, 2004 45 53 2 May 27, 2004 41 55 5 Apr 21, 2004 47 49 4 Mar 17, 2004 48 48 4 Feb 18, 2004 47 49 3 Dec 17, 2003 53 43 4 Oct 15, 2003 51 44 6 Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sep 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 55% 57% 53% 52% 55% 55% Disapprove 34 32 38 31 34 34 DK/NA 11 11 9 17 11 11



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 52% 74% 36% 41% 53% 51% Disapprove 31 14 47 37 31 31 DK/NA 17 12 17 22 16 18



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 45% 83% 14% 36% 48% 43% Disapprove 51 13 83 61 49 54 DK/NA 3 4 3 3 3 3



14. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 41% 64% 23% 34% 41% 41% Unfavorable 24 7 39 30 26 23 Mixed 17 14 16 24 17 17 Hvn't hrd enough 16 13 20 12 15 17 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 2



15. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 41% 36% 46% 40% 42% 41% Unfavorable 8 11 6 8 11 7 Mixed 18 19 17 23 14 21 Hvn't hrd enough 31 33 31 28 32 31 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 -



16. Is your opinion of former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 32% 27% 37% 32% 30% 33% Unfavorable 12 17 8 7 15 10 Mixed 16 16 16 19 14 17 Hvn't hrd enough 39 39 38 40 40 38 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1



17. Is your opinion of former Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 16% 9% 24% 14% 15% 17% Unfavorable 11 16 6 11 14 9 Mixed 15 13 17 17 14 16 Hvn't hrd enough 57 61 52 56 57 57 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1



18. Is your opinion of former State Representative T.J. Rooney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% Unfavorable 2 4 2 1 3 2 Mixed 7 7 6 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 84 82 86 84 83 85 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1



19. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Casey 46% 16% 74% 49% 42% 49% Santorum 41 72 17 32 45 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 11 11 6 17 9 13

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Casey 49% 66% 48% 35% 45% 45% 43% Santorum 40 21 36 48 49 39 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 10 14 14 5 14 11



20. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Barbara Hafer the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Hafer 39% 13% 67% 38% 34% 43% Santorum 47 78 22 39 52 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 3 1 DK/NA 11 8 9 20 10 13

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hafer 50% 57% 33% 34% 34% 39% 33% Santorum 42 26 49 50 53 50 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 4 14 16 14 10 9 11



21. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Hoeffel 34% 9% 63% 33% 30% 38% Santorum 50 83 23 42 53 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 13 7 10 21 13 12

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 36% 56% 25% 38% 27% 33% 29% Santorum 46 27 55 48 63 49 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 12 14 18 10 9 15 11



22. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were T.J. Rooney the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Rooney 30% 8% 55% 28% 29% 31% Santorum 51 80 27 45 54 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 15 10 13 24 13 17

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rooney 35% 47% 32% 26% 23% 34% 24% Santorum 45 29 50 52 61 46 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 16 19 14 18 13 18 12



23. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Deserves reelection 53% 79% 32% 44% 55% 50% Does not 30 9 50 35 29 31 DK/NA 17 12 18 20 15 18



24. Would you like Rick Santorum to run for President in 2008 or not?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 19% 31% 8% 18% 19% 18% No 64 48 78 69 66 62 DK/NA 17 21 14 13 15 19



25. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 7% 6% 10% 4% 8% 6% Too conservative 25 12 37 31 27 23 About right 44 65 28 35 46 42 DK/NA 25 17 26 30 19 29



26. As you may know, Senator Santorum has a major role in the Republican leadership in the Senate.

Some people say this is good for Pennsylvania because Senators with leadership roles can bring home more federal money to their state. Others say this is bad for Pennsylvania because Senators with leadership roles don't have enough time to pay attention to the needs of their state.

Which comes closer to your point of view: Senator Santorum's leadership role will be good for Pennsylvania or bad for Pennsylvania?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Good for PA 60% 81% 41% 55% 63% 58% Bad for PA 31 12 52 33 31 32 DK/NA 8 7 7 12 6 10