July 13, 2005 - Casey Tops Santorum In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Two-Thirds Of Voters Say Keep Roe v Wade
Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum has gained slightly on State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., but still trails the Democratic challenger 50 - 39 percent in the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 35 percent Casey lead in an April 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Sen. Santorum has a 51 - 35 percent job approval, compared to a 48 - 35 percent approval rating April 20. Pennsylvania voters say 45 - 38 percent that he deserves to be reelected. His politics are "about right," 44 percent say, while 29 percent say he is "too conservative," and 6 percent say he is "too liberal."

"Sen. Santorum is clearly vulnerable to a challenge from a popular Democrat. But his job approval and favorability ratings are holding up well despite negative media reports," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Pennsylvania voters apparently don't feel Santorum's politics are out of line with their own views, but he will have his hands full running against a Democrat with the name of Casey."

Democratic voters back Casey 81 - 10 percent, and independent voters back him 50 - 35 percent. Republicans go with Santorum 72 - 19 percent. Women voters back the Democrat 51 - 35 percent and men back him 47 - 43 percent. Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a 37 - 27 percent favorability with 17 percent mixed and 19 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a 37 - 27 percent favorability with 17 percent mixed and 19 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Casey gets a 39 - 9 percent favorability, with 17 percent mixed and 36 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

U.S. Supreme Court

By a 64 - 27 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters say President George W. Bush should not nominate for the U.S. Supreme Court someone who would overturn the historic Roe v Wade decision. Men and women are consistent on this position

Only 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters want President Bush to nominate a justice who would make the court more conservative, with 24 percent who want the court more liberal and 40 percent who want to keep the present balance.

Voters fall in the middle on abortion, with 16 percent who say it should be legal in all cases, 37 percent who say it should be legal in most cases, 27 percent who say it should be illegal in most cases and 14 percent who say it should be illegal in all cases.

Sen. Arlen Specter, in his position as Senate Judiciary Committee Chair, should consider a Supreme Court nominee's position on issues such as abortion and the death penalty, 53 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 36 percent say Sen. Specter should consider only the nominee's qualifications to be a Supreme Court justice.

"Pennsylvania voters don't have a problem with Sen. Specter saying a court nominee who opposes abortion would have a hard time getting confirmed. They want their Senator to be more than a rubber stamp of President Bush's choice for the court," Richards said.

Voters disapprove 53 - 44 percent of the job President Bush is doing, virtually unchanged from April 20.

Senior Sen. Arlen Specter gets a 60 - 30 percent approval, tying his highest ever.

From July 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,639 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes an oversample of 537 voters from the Philadelphia suburbs, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. In the overall sample, voters from the Philadelphia suburbs were weighted to reflect their representation in the population.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 60% 58% 63% 57% 59% 61% Disapprove 30 33 26 35 34 27 DK/NA 10 8 11 9 7 12

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central

Approve 61% 69% 62% 67% 41% 55% 58% Disapprove 30 23 29 23 43 34 34 DK/NA 9 8 9 9 16 11 8



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16  Sep 16  Jul 13  Apr 22
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2005*   2004


Approve 60 53 55 52 60 47 Disapprove 30 33 34 37 30 36 DK/NA 10 13 11 12 10 17



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 51% 73% 33% 44% 52% 49% Disapprove 35 16 52 41 37 34 DK/NA 14 11 16 15 11 17

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central

Approve 46% 46% 50% 43% 58% 52% 57% Disapprove 46 35 37 39 29 37 30 DK/NA 8 19 13 18 13 11 13



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003)

                                                        Highest Lowest
                                                        Approve Approve
                        Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16  Sep 16  Dec 17  Apr 22
                        2005    2005    2005    2004    2003*   2004


Approve 51 48 52 54 56 47 Disapprove 35 35 31 30 29 30 DK/NA 14 18 17 16 15 22



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
Approve                 44%     82%     13%     36%     46%     41%
Disapprove              53      15      85      59      51      55
DK/NA                    3       3       2       5       3       4




14. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 37% 60% 17% 32% 39% 34% Unfavorable 27 9 44 29 30 25 Mixed 17 17 15 19 15 19 Hvn't hrd enough 19 14 23 19 16 21 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1



15. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 39% 33% 47% 34% 40% 38% Unfavorable 9 13 5 9 12 6 Mixed 17 16 16 18 15 18 Hvn't hrd enough 36 37 32 37 32 38 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 -



16. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Casey 50% 19% 81% 50% 47% 51% Santorum 39 72 10 35 43 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 11 9 9 13 9 12

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central

Casey 54% 61% 51% 52% 47% 49% 41% Santorum 39 28 37 35 41 34 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 5 10 12 12 10 17 10



TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat, and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16
                        2005    2005    2005


Bob Casey, Jr. 50 49 46 Rick Santorum 39 35 41 SMONE ELSE - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 1 DK/NA 11 13 11



17. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Deserves reelection 45% 72% 20% 42% 48% 42% Does not 38 16 61 38 38 38 DK/NA 17 12 19 20 14 20

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central

Deserves reelection 43% 37% 42% 40% 47% 43% 53% Does not 50 39 35 44 36 44 29 DK/NA 7 24 23 16 18 14 18



TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                
                        Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16  
                        2005    2005    2005    


Deserves reelection 45 44 53 Does not 38 37 30 DK/NA 17 19 17



18. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 6% 4% 8% 8% 6% 7% Too conservative 29 14 41 37 33 27 About right 44 67 26 39 46 43 DK/NA 20 15 25 17 16 24



34. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the United States Supreme Court is handling its job?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 47% 48% 46% 45% 48% 46% Disapprove 39 38 41 40 41 38 DK/NA 14 13 14 15 11 17



35. With the retirement of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, President Bush has the opportunity to make a nomination to the Supreme Court. Would you like to see him nominate someone who would make the court more conservative, more liberal, or keep the present balance?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More conservative 31% 58% 11% 23% 35% 28% More liberal 24 6 43 26 23 26 Keep the balance 40 34 40 47 38 42 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 4 5



36. Would you like to see President Bush nominate someone to the Supreme Court who would want to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 27% 42% 18% 22% 29% 26% No 64 50 73 72 61 67 DK/NA 8 9 9 6 10 7



37. As chairman of the Senate judiciary committee, should Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter support or oppose a nominee for the Supreme Court based only on whether he or she is qualified to be a justice, or should he also consider the nominees views on controversial issues like abortion and the death penalty?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Only if qualified 36% 44% 30% 40% 42% 32% Views on issues 53 46 58 54 48 57 DK/NA 11 10 12 7 10 11



38. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Legal all cases 16% 10% 22% 15% 13% 18% Legal most cases 37 26 41 47 37 37 Illegal most cases 27 37 20 22 26 27 Illegal all cases 14 21 10 10 15 13 DK/NA 7 6 7 7 9 5