April 6, 2006 - Casey Leads Santorum By 11% In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Few Dems Would Drop Casey Because He Is Pro-Life
Pennsylvania incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum has inched up slightly against Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. and now trails the challenger 48 - 37 percent in his reelection battle, with 12 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 51 - 36 percent Casey lead in a February 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Republicans back Santorum 70 - 17 percent, while Democrats back Casey 77 - 9 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 53 - 28 percent. Men back Casey 45 - 41 percent and women back him 50 - 33 percent.

Santorum leads two other possible Democratic challengers, 44 - 32 percent over Alan Sandals and 45 - 32 percent over Chuck Pennacchio.

But among Democrats, Casey gets 63 percent, with 5 percent for Sandals and 4 percent for Pennacchio. Another 25 percent are undecided.

"Sen. Rick Santorum has narrowed the gap a little, but State Treasurer Robert Casey still holds a comfortable double-digit lead in the general election. Casey overwhelms two largely unknown candidates in the Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


Only 23 percent of Pennsylvania voters know that Casey is pro-life, while 8 percent think he is pro-choice and 69 percent don't know Casey's position on abortion.

And only 15 percent of voters say they would vote against a candidate based only on his position on abortion. Of that group, two-thirds are staunchly anti-abortion, while one third, or 5 percent of the total electorate, say they are staunchly pro-choice.

Among Democrats who identify as pro-choice and who initially expressed support for Casey, only 9 percent say they are "very likely" to shift their support to a pro-choice Democrat in a primary.

"The most surprising thing about this poll is that two-thirds of the voters say they don't know how Bob Casey Jr. stands on the issue of abortion. But given that, only five percent of the voters say they would definitely vote against a candidate just because he opposed abortion," Richards said.

"With Casey holding double digit leads, this is an indication that his stand against abortion is not having a major impact in either the Democratic primary or the general election."

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 60 - 35 percent of the job President Bush is doing overall and disapprove 62 - 35 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 55 - 39 percent.

Looking at the situation in Iraq:
  • 12 percent of voters say increase U.S. troop levels;
  • 23 percent say keep current troop levels;
  • 31 percent say decrease troop levels;
  • 28 percent say remove all troops.
From March 28 - April 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,354 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 565 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.

For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 53 53 51 56 53 54 Disapprove 32 33 35 30 37 28 DK/NA 14 14 14 15 10 18

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 43 54 52 63 52 56 51 Disapprove 39 33 33 28 34 32 32 DK/NA 18 13 15 10 14 13 16

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Jul 13  Apr 22
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005*   2004


Approve 53 56 57 57 60 60 47 Disapprove 32 32 31 32 30 30 36 DK/NA 14 12 11 12 10 10 17



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 44 64 31 32 47 41 Disapprove 40 20 55 51 41 39 DK/NA 16 16 14 18 12 19

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 44 37 48 40 48 44 46 Disapprove 42 47 33 43 39 46 35 DK/NA 14 16 19 17 13 9 19

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003) (** Also hit 43% on 10/6/2005)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Dec 17  Feb 13
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2003*   2006 ** 


Approve 44 43 48 43 51 56 43 Disapprove 40 42 38 41 35 29 42 DK/NA 16 15 14 16 14 15 15



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 35 67 9 29 37 34 Disapprove 60 26 88 69 59 61 DK/NA 4 6 3 2 4 5

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 46 12 32 31 46 34 43 Disapprove 50 85 59 66 50 61 53 DK/NA 4 3 8 3 4 5 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Jun 5   Apr 6
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2002    2006 


Approve 35 37 38 37 44 73 35 Disapprove 60 59 59 61 53 21 60 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 6 4



10. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 32 54 14 21 37 27 Unfavorable 32 12 48 39 34 30 Mixed 18 19 15 20 15 20 Hvn't hrd enough 19 15 22 20 14 22 REFUSED - - - 1 - -

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 36 20 36 28 36 30 35 Unfavorable 41 37 31 36 22 43 23 Mixed 10 14 18 16 28 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 13 29 16 19 14 12 21 REFUSED - - - 1 - - 1

TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 32 31 35 33 37 36 41 Unfavorable 32 29 28 30 27 25 24 Mixed 18 22 21 19 17 20 17 Haven't heard enough 19 17 14 18 19 19 16 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 1 1



11. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 33 27 44 27 33 33 Unfavorable 10 13 8 10 13 9 Mixed 16 18 13 17 16 16 Hvn't hrd enough 40 41 33 45 38 42 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 26 41 38 26 30 32 36 Unfavorable 15 13 10 15 4 6 9 Mixed 18 14 18 15 13 16 17 Hvn't hrd enough 42 32 34 44 54 44 37 REFUSED - - - - - 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 33 34 40 38 39 40 41 Unfavorable 10 6 6 9 9 6 8 Mixed 16 22 18 20 17 15 18 Haven't heard enough 40 38 34 33 36 38 31 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1



12. Is your opinion of University Professor Chuck Pennacchio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 2 1 2 3 2 2 Unfavorable 2 1 2 2 3 1 Mixed 2 2 2 3 1 3 Hvn't hrd enough 93 95 93 91 93 94 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 -

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 3 3 1 2 1 - 2 Unfavorable 2 5 2 2 2 1 - Mixed 2 1 5 2 - - 4 Hvn't hrd enough 93 91 92 93 96 97 94 REFUSED - - - 1 - 2 -



13. Is your opinion of Attorney Alan Sandals favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 2 2 2 3 2 2 Unfavorable 2 1 3 3 4 1 Mixed 4 4 4 3 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 92 93 91 91 92 92 REFUSED - - 1 1 - 1

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 1 5 1 3 - 3 1 Unfavorable 1 4 3 2 3 3 1 Mixed 4 5 5 3 1 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 94 86 91 92 96 88 94 REFUSED - - - - - 2 -



14. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Casey 48 17 77 53 45 50 Santorum 37 70 9 28 41 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 12 10 10 15 9 14

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Casey 49 65 45 48 39 51 43 Santorum 41 18 36 35 51 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 5 4 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 10 11 14 12 7 13 14

TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005    2005


Bob Casey, Jr. 48 51 50 52 50 49 46 Rick Santorum 37 36 38 34 39 35 41 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 10 10 11 11 13 11



15. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Alan Sandals the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Sandals 32 8 56 38 29 35 Santorum 44 77 18 34 49 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 6 2 4 3 DK/NA 19 13 18 24 17 20

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Sandals 31 47 28 34 27 35 28 Santorum 48 29 47 40 57 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 5 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 18 19 19 19 13 16 22



16. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Chuck Pennacchio the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Pennacchio 32 8 57 36 30 35 Santorum 45 77 18 34 50 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 5 2 4 3 DK/NA 18 12 19 24 15 21

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Pennacchio 30 46 33 31 27 38 28 Santorum 45 32 45 43 58 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 4 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 5 3 3 5 3 DK/NA 20 17 18 19 12 13 21



17. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Deserves reelection 43 72 22 30 48 38 No/Does not 41 15 61 52 41 40 DK/NA 16 13 18 18 10 21

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Yes/Deserves reelection 46 29 49 39 52 45 44 No/Does not 46 50 36 44 34 44 36 DK/NA 9 21 14 17 14 11 20



TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13 Oct 6   Jul 13  Apr 20  Feb 16
                        2006    2006    2005   2005    2005    2005    2005


Deserves reelection 43 41 45 41 45 44 53 Does not 41 44 40 42 38 37 30 DK/NA 16 15 14 17 17 19 17



18. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr., Chuck Pennacchio, and Alan Sandals for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Casey 63 69 58 Pennacchio 4 5 4 Sandals 5 6 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 25 16 32



19. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Legal, all 17 13 22 18 15 18 Legal, most 34 26 40 37 32 35 Illegal, most 26 34 17 25 29 23 Illegal, all 15 20 11 11 12 17 DK/NA 9 6 11 9 11 7

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Legal, all 18 16 24 18 13 13 16 Legal, most 33 49 32 39 30 29 28 Illegal, most 28 18 23 22 36 26 28 Illegal, all 11 8 14 12 15 21 19 DK/NA 10 8 8 9 6 11 9

TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Jul 13  Apr 20  Mar 18  Jun 5
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2003    2002


Legal all 17 17 18 16 16 23 21 Legal Most 34 36 35 37 33 32 32 Illegal Most 26 25 26 27 26 24 24 Illegal All 15 16 16 14 18 17 15 DK/NA 9 6 5 7 7 4 8



20. If a political candidate were to take a stand on abortion that was different from your own, would you vote against that candidate on the basis of that issue alone, or would you consider other things before deciding who to vote for?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Vote against 15 19 11 17 12 17 Consider other things 82 79 86 80 85 80 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 3 3

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Vote against 11 16 8 19 17 15 17 Consider other things 86 80 87 80 80 80 82 DK/NA 3 4 6 1 4 5 2



21. On the issue of abortion, do you happen to know whether Bob Casey Jr. is pro-life or pro-choice?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Pro-life 23 23 23 26 27 21 Pro-choice 8 9 8 6 10 7 DK/NA 69 69 69 67 64 73

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Pro-life 29 24 25 34 13 16 19 Pro-choice 8 7 10 5 10 12 7 DK/NA 63 69 65 61 77 72 74



22. (Pro-choice registered democrat, Casey primary voter(q18-1 & q19-1 or 2) In the Democratic primary for United States Senator you said you are supporting Casey but on the issue of abortion he is pro-life while the other candidates on the ballot, Chuck Penacchio and Alan Sandals, are pro-choice. How likely is it that you would change your vote in the Democratic primary for United States Senator because of Casey's position on abortion? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

(Pro-choice registered democrat, Casey primary voter(q18-1 & q19-1 or 2)
                       Tot     Men     Wom


Very likely 9 6 11 Smwht likely 19 16 22 Not too likely 34 36 32 Not likely at all 34 38 30 DK/NA 5 4 5



31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 35 67 8 26 38 32 Disapprove 62 29 89 72 60 64 DK/NA 3 4 2 2 2 4

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 39 13 38 30 47 37 39 Disapprove 57 85 57 68 50 61 56 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 3 2 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13
                        2006    2006


Approve 35 37 Disapprove 62 60 DK/NA 3 3



32. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 39 70 11 33 43 36 Wrong thing 55 24 84 61 52 57 DK/NA 6 6 5 5 4 7

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Right thing 43 13 49 36 55 39 42 Wrong thing 50 81 46 61 43 56 49 DK/NA 7 6 5 3 2 5 9

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Oct 28  Oct 22  Oct 12
                        2006    2006    2005    2005    2004    2004    2004


Right thing 39 40 40 37 48 45 45 Wrong thing 55 55 55 57 45 48 48 DK/NA 6 4 5 6 7 8 7



33. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- a) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, b) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, c) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or d) remove all its troops from Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


a) Increase troops 12 15 7 15 15 9 b) Keep same amount 23 35 14 18 27 20 c) Decrease troops 31 27 33 35 31 32 d) Remove all troops 28 15 43 27 23 32 DK/NA 6 8 4 5 5 7

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

a) Increase troops 11 10 11 12 15 11 13 b) Keep same amount 31 14 27 23 19 20 24 c) Decrease troops 26 27 33 34 39 30 29 d) Remove all troops 25 45 25 25 20 34 26 DK/NA 7 4 5 5 6 5 8