May 12, 2006 - Rendell Opens 22-Point Lead Over Swann In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Bounces Back
Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell has opened up a 55 - 33 percent lead over Republican challenger Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, in his race for reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 47 - 37 percent Rendell lead in an April 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll.

In this latest survey, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 80 - 12 percent among Democrats and 58 - 26 percent among independent voters. Swann leads 61 - 25 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 52 - 37 percent, while women back him 58 - 28 percent.

Pennsylvania voters approve 55 - 31 percent of the job Rendell is doing, his highest approval ever and up from 46 - 37 percent April 5.

"Gov. Rendell's numbers have bounced back as voters see no compelling reason to vote against him for a second term and no compelling reason to vote for Lynn Swann to unseat him," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"'Teflon Ed' has come through another battle with the Legislature over property taxes looking like the good guy even if no meaningful tax reduction proposal was passed into law."

Rendell has a 43 - 24 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 11 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Voters give Swann a 22 - 13 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 53 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. These numbers are virtually unchanged since April 5.

"Swann's candidacy has yet to catch fire as a majority of voters - including a majority in his own Republican Party - say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. As long as 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters feel Gov. Rendell deserves re-election, he is going to be hard to beat," Richards added.

A total of 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, while 47 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."

From May 2 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 55% 35% 71% 56% 54% 55% Disapprove 31 51 17 28 34 29 DK/NA 14 14 12 15 12 16 TABLE 008 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 49% 79% 56% 67% 47% 34% 47% Disapprove 37 13 27 20 38 46 40 DK/NA 14 8 17 13 15 20 13

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 13  Oct 5   May 12  Apr 5
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2006    2006*


Approve 55 46 51 51 46 55 46 Disapprove 31 37 33 35 38 31 37 DK/NA 14 17 16 14 16 14 17



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 31% 32% 32% 23% 28% 32% Disapprove 53 54 53 56 58 50 DK/NA 16 14 15 21 14 18

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 24% 46% 37% 35% 29% 18% 25% Disapprove 57 37 43 46 58 67 63 DK/NA 19 17 19 19 13 16 12

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 8   Oct 5   Apr 10  Oct 5
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2003    2005 


Approve 31 29 33 30 26 49 26 Disapprove 53 55 52 57 60 24 60 DK/NA 16 16 15 13 14 27 14



6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 43% 24% 58% 43% 43% 42% Unfavorable 24 42 10 18 28 20 Mixed 22 21 20 28 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 11 13 11 10 9 13 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 -

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 33% 73% 42% 57% 30% 24% 34% Unfavorable 24 10 21 15 22 36 33 Mixed 30 10 23 19 28 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 12 6 13 9 18 16 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 2 -

TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 13  Oct 5   Jul 14  Apr 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 43 35 40 38 39 37 37 Unfavorable 24 27 24 27 29 29 25 Mixed 22 24 25 27 22 22 24 Haven't heard enough 11 13 10 8 11 11 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1



7. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 22% 34% 14% 20% 27% 19% Unfavorable 13 5 19 14 16 10 Mixed 11 9 11 14 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 53 51 54 50 44 60 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 -

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 36% 13% 19% 17% 28% 31% 21% Unfavorable 14 16 13 14 9 15 11 Mixed 14 7 11 10 11 13 10 Hvn't hrd enough 35 60 55 59 51 42 57 REFUSED 1 4 3 1 1 - -

TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 13  Oct 5   Jul 14  Apr 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 22 23 29 28 26 26 25 Unfavorable 13 12 8 8 7 7 6 Mixed 11 11 9 9 9 7 9 Haven't heard enough 53 52 52 54 56 59 58 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 2



8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Rendell 55% 25% 80% 58% 52% 58% Swann 33 61 12 26 37 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 10 12 6 12 9 11

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 48% 83% 60% 67% 46% 38% 45% Swann 40 11 27 23 36 48 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 11 4 10 7 16 11 11

TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 13  Oct 5   Jul 14  Apr 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005


Rendell 55 47 48 48 47 48 48 Swann 33 37 36 35 34 36 35 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 12 14 14 15 13 14



9. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        Chose   Gov Choice Q8
                        CandQ8  ER      LS


Made up 63% 63% 64% Might change 34 34 35 DK/NA 3 3 2



10a. (If Rendell q8) Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann?

                        Rendell Q8


For Rendell 82% Against Swann 10 DK/NA 8



10b. (If Swann q8) Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell?

                        Swann Q8


For Swann 41% Against Rendell 53 DK/NA 6



11. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
Deserves reelection     55%     31%     76%     56%     53%     57%
Does not                33      57      16      27      37      29
DK/NA                   12      12       8      17      10      14


Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Deserves reelection 50% 82% 54% 70% 48% 33% 45% Does not 36 11 31 21 40 50 44 DK/NA 13 8 15 9 12 17 11

TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 15  Dec 13  Oct 5   Jul 14  Apr 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005


Deserves reelection 55 46 49 49 48 46 48 Does not deserve 33 40 37 40 41 41 38 DK/NA 12 14 14 12 11 14 14



20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 5% 4% 7% 4% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 46 43 48 48 46 46 Smwht dissatisfied 28 33 27 25 27 30 Very dissatisfied 19 19 16 23 20 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Very satisfied 7% 5% 7% 9% 1% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 42 49 51 55 44 34 44 Smwht dissatisfied 29 24 28 24 29 33 32 Very dissatisfied 21 20 13 12 24 30 19 DK/NA - 2 1 - 2 1 1

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        May 12  Apr 5   Feb 13  Dec 8   Oct 5   Jul 14  Apr 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005    2005


Very satisfied 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 Smwht satisfied 46 50 49 50 42 48 49 Smwht dissatisfied 28 29 30 33 33 32 30 Very dissatisifed 19 14 15 13 20 15 15 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1