June 21, 2006 - Casey Over 50% In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush Gets Small Bounce On Iraq
Pennsylvania voters give Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. a 52 - 34 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, with 12 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 36 percent Casey lead in a May 11 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Republicans back Sen. Santorum 68 - 20 percent, while Democrats back Casey 80 - 9 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 54 - 30 percent. Men back Casey 51 - 40 percent and women back him 54 - 28 percent. Their mind is made up, 67 percent of voters say.

Republicans who say they are conservative back Santorum 76 - 14 percent while Republicans who say they are liberal or moderate back Santorum 54 - 30 percent.

Among Casey supporters, 44 percent say their vote is mainly against Santorum.

"Sen. Santorum appears to be his own worst enemy in his battle for re-election. More than 40 percent of those who say they will vote for Democrat Bob Casey say they are really voting against Santorum. And less than 40 percent of all voters say Santorum deserves to be reelected," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Senator is going to need a spectacular debate performance and a powerful advertising campaign if he does not want to become part of the anti-Bush, anti-Republican backlash," Richards added.

Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a negative 38 - 45 percent approval rating, the incumbent's lowest approval rating ever and down slightly from 41 - 44 percent May 11. By a 45-37 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters say Santorum does not deserve to be reelected. President's Approval

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 62 - 34 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing overall, compared to 66 - 30 percent May 11, the President's lowest approval in Pennsylvania. Voters also disapprove 62 - 35 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq, compared to 67 - 29 percent May 11. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 57 - 38 percent, unchanged from May 11.

Looking at the situation in Iraq:
  • 12 percent of voters say increase U.S. troop levels;
  • 24 percent say keep current troop levels;
  • 27 percent say decrease troop levels;
  • 31 percent say remove all troops.
"President Bush's approval rating and support for the war in Iraq have increased slightly in the last month, probably the result of the death of a major terrorist figure and the President's surprise visit to the war zone. But both Bush and the war remain unpopular in Pennsylvania and if there is no change, those strong negatives could hurt Republican candidates on the ballot across the state in November," Richards said.

From June 13 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,076 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 52% 46% 61% 47% 52% 52% Disapprove 36 40 30 42 39 33 DK/NA 12 14 9 11 10 14

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 54% 53% 55% 55% 42% 48% 52% Disapprove 37 36 30 38 37 44 33 DK/NA 9 11 16 7 21 8 15

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Jul 13  Apr 22
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005*   2004


Approve 52 55 53 56 57 60 47 Disapprove 36 33 32 32 31 30 36 DK/NA 12 12 14 12 11 10 17



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 38% 64% 26% 25% 41% 36% Disapprove 45 21 59 57 47 43 DK/NA 16 15 15 18 11 21

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 34% 27% 46% 35% 48% 39% 42% Disapprove 61 57 31 52 34 52 33 DK/NA 5 16 23 13 18 8 24

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Dec 17  Jun 21
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2003*   2006  


Approve 38 41 44 43 48 56 38 Disapprove 45 44 40 42 38 29 45 DK/NA 16 15 16 15 14 15 16



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 34% 69% 13% 22% 39% 30% Disapprove 62 27 84 72 59 64 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 2 6

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 33% 12% 31% 31% 45% 43% 43% Disapprove 63 83 64 66 50 53 52 DK/NA 4 5 5 3 5 4 5

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Jun 5   May 11
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2002    2006


Approve 34 30 35 37 38 73 30 Disapprove 62 66 60 59 59 21 66 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 6 3



11. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 28% 50% 12% 23% 33% 23% Unfavorable 35 16 47 43 38 32 Mixed 19 18 17 19 14 23 Hvn't hrd enough 19 16 24 14 15 22 REFUSED - - - 1 - 1

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 27% 18% 26% 29% 25% 28% 34% Unfavorable 52 34 27 39 28 38 27 Mixed 13 25 20 17 19 22 17 Hvn't hrd enough 7 23 26 15 28 11 21 REFUSED - - - - - 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 28 27 32 31 35 33 37 Unfavorable 35 36 32 29 28 30 27 Mixed 19 18 18 22 21 19 17 Haven't heard enough 19 19 19 17 14 18 19 REFUSED - 1 - 1 - 1 1



12. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 26% 17% 36% 25% 29% 24% Unfavorable 11 17 4 15 13 9 Mixed 20 17 22 19 18 22 Hvn't hrd enough 42 48 39 40 39 44 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 36% 28% 37% 23% 24% 26% 20% Unfavorable 16 9 5 10 12 17 11 Mixed 14 28 20 17 14 20 24 Hvn't hrd enough 35 34 38 49 50 37 44 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 - 1

TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 26 25 33 34 40 38 39 Unfavorable 11 11 10 6 6 9 9 Mixed 20 18 16 22 18 20 17 Haven't heard enough 42 46 40 38 34 33 36 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1



13. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Casey 52% 20% 80% 54% 51% 54% Santorum 34 68 9 30 40 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 12 11 10 14 7 16

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Casey 61% 72% 52% 51% 42% 53% 42% Santorum 28 12 35 37 37 37 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 7 1 DK/NA 9 14 13 10 21 3 15

REPUBLICANS .... Consrv Lib/Mod

Casey 14% 30% Santorum 76 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 DK/NA 8 13

TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Jul 13
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2005


Bob Casey, Jr. 52 49 48 51 50 52 50 Rick Santorum 34 36 37 36 38 34 39 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 12 12 12 10 10 11 11



13a. (If candidate choice q13) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        CANDIDATE CHOICE Q13..
                                CAND OF CHOICE
                        Tot     BC      RS


Made up 67% 70% 61% Might change 33 29 38 DK/NA 1 1 1



14a. (If "Santorum" q13)Is your vote more for Santorum or more against Casey?

                        SANTORUM VOTER Q13..
                        Tot     Men     Wom


For Santorum 78% 78% 78% Against Casey 14 14 15 DK/NA 8 8 7



14b. (If "Casey" q13)Is your vote more for Casey or more against Santorum?

                        CASEY VOTER Q13....
                        Tot     Men     Wom


For Casey 50% 46% 53% Against Santorum 44 50 38 DK/NA 7 4 9



15. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Deserves reelection 37% 65% 19% 31% 42% 31% No/Does not 45 20 62 52 47 42 DK/NA 19 16 19 18 10 26

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Yes/Deserves reelection 36% 21% 38% 35% 38% 43% 43% No/Does not 59 57 35 49 32 50 34 DK/NA 5 22 27 16 30 6 23

TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13 Oct 6   Jul 13
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005   2005    2005


Deserves reelection 37 37 43 41 45 41 45 Does not 45 45 41 44 40 42 38 DK/NA 19 18 16 15 14 17 17



20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 35% 68% 15% 23% 39% 30% Disapprove 62 28 83 74 58 65 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 2 4

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 30% 15% 33% 31% 44% 43% 45% Disapprove 66 85 65 64 50 54 51 DK/NA 4 - 2 5 6 3 3

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13
                        2006    2006    2006    2006


Approve 35 29 35 37 Disapprove 62 67 62 60 DK/NA 3 4 3 3

21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 38% 68% 18% 30% 45% 31% Wrong thing 57 24 79 66 50 63 DK/NA 6 8 3 5 6 6

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Right thing 33% 13% 40% 37% 55% 43% 46% Wrong thing 57 85 58 58 39 53 46 DK/NA 9 3 2 5 6 4 8

TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6   Feb 13  Dec 13  Oct 6   Oct 28
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2005    2004


Right thing 38 38 39 40 40 37 48 Wrong thing 57 57 55 55 55 57 45 DK/NA 6 5 6 4 5 6 7



22. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. --

A) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A) Increase troops 12% 16% 8% 13% 16% 8% B) Keep same amount 24 40 13 21 27 21 C) Decrease troops 27 24 29 28 22 31 D) Remove all troops 31 13 45 33 29 33 DK/NA 6 7 5 5 6 6

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

A) Increase troops 8% 10% 16% 13% 7% 14% 12% B) Keep same amount 26 15 17 22 30 23 31 C) Decrease troops 22 21 35 32 20 34 24 D) Remove all troops 38 53 30 26 30 25 24 DK/NA 6 1 3 8 14 3 8

TREND: From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?

                        Jun 21  May 11  Apr 6
                        2006    2006    2006


A) Increase troops 12 15 12 B) Keep same amount 24 21 23 C) Decrease troops 27 24 31 D) Remove all troops 31 32 28 DK/NA 6 8 6