September 24, 2008 - Debates Could Tip Tight Races In Four Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds

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The presidential debates could influence 22 to 26 percent of voters in the hotly contested states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.
  • In Colorado, where Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain 49 - 45 percent, a total of 22 percent of likely voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the presidential debates could change their mind.
  • In Michigan, where Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 48 - 44 percent, 26 percent say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the debates could affect their vote.
  • In Minnesota, where Obama has 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, 24 percent say the debates could impact their decision.
  • In Wisconsin, where Obama is ahead 49 - 42 percent, 25 percent say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" the debates could influence them.
"With such small margins, the presidential debates could be critical in these battleground states, and elsewhere around the country," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From September 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,418 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,364 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,301 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,313 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
COLORADO             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His
            
Obama                49%     7%    91%    51%    42%    55%    44%    68%
McCain               45     89      6     40     49     40     51     26 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      2      1      2      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      - 
DK/NA                 5      3      3      7      6      4      4      6 
 
MICHIGAN             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                48%     7%    89%    49%    44%    52%    41%    93%
McCain               44     88      8     42     49     40     51      5 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      - 
DK/NA                 7      4      3      8      6      7      7      2 
 
MINNESOTA            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht
 
Obama                47%     4%    92%    43%    45%    49%    44%
McCain               45     93      5     45     47     43     48 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      3      1      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      - 
DK/NA                 6      2      3     10      5      7      7 
 
WISCONSIN            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht
 
Obama                49%     6%    90%    42%    45%    53%    46%
McCain               42     91      5     44     48     37     45 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      4      2      1      1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      - 
DK/NA                 7      3      5     10      5      9      7 
 
 
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His
 
Very likely           6%     2%     6%    10%     5%     8%     5%     8%
Smwht likely         16     17      9     23     16     16     15     26
Not too likely       24     25     23     24     23     25     27     16
Not likely at all    52     56     59     41     54     49     52     45
DK/NA                 1      -      2      2      1      2      1      4
 
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very likely           7%     5%     6%    11%     8%     7%     6%    11%
Smwht likely         19     15     16     24     21     17     19     18 
Not too likely       21     23     21     20     20     23     22     14 
Not likely at all    52     56     58     44     51     52     51     57 
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1 
 
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht  
 
Very likely           5%     1%     3%     8%     4%     5%     5%
Smwht likely         19     15     14     26     17     22     20 
Not too likely       27     31     25     28     27     26     28 
Not likely at all    48     53     58     36     51     46     47 
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      -      1      1 
 
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht  
 
Very likely           7%     4%    10%     6%     5%     8%     6%
Smwht likely         18     12     14     26     17     19     19 
Not too likely       24     27     20     29     24     25     25 
Not likely at all    49     54     55     39     52     46     48 
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      1 
                     
 
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
CO                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Very likely           6%     7%     4%
Smwht likely         16     13     16
Not too likely       24     25     25
Not likely at all    52     53     53
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
MI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Very likely           7%     7%     5%
Smwht likely         19     17     19
Not too likely       21     22     22
Not likely at all    52     54     53
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
MN                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Very likely           5%     4%     4%
Smwht likely         19     18     18
Not too likely       27     26     29
Not likely at all    48     53     49
DK/NA                 1      -      -
 
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
WI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Very likely           7%     6%     5%
Smwht likely         18     16     19
Not too likely       24     24     26
Not likely at all    49     53     49
DK/NA                 2      1      2