April 26, 2007 - Giuliani Now Leads Clinton In All Three Swing States; Gore Runs Best Vs. Gop, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; FLORIDA: Giuliani Up 49 - 41; Clinton, McCain Tied at 45; OHIO: Giuliani Over Clinton 46 - 41; McCain at 44 to Clinton's 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Giuliani Tops Clinton 47 - 43; McCain Up 45 - 43

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and other Democrats in the 2008 presidential race in three critical states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

But former Vice President Al Gore, who is not yet a candidate, runs better against Republican challengers in most Swing State matchups than Sen. Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
  • Florida - Giuliani leads Clinton 49 - 41 percent, compared to 50 - 40 percent in an April 2 poll. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 43 percent.
  • Ohio - Giuliani leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, compared to March 22 when Clinton was up 46 - 43 percent. Gore trails Giuliani 47 - 39 percent.
  • Pennsylvania - Giuliani leads Clinton 47 - 43 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent March 29. Gore ties Giuliani 44 - 44 percent.
"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani remains the front-runner, but he and the entire Democratic field should wonder if Al Gore will become an inconvenient truth in the 2008 presidential race and go for the biggest Oscar of them all," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"We might want to start calling him Swing State Rudy because of his ability to draw support in these key states and across demographic lines. But before he gets too confident, the mayor needs to realize he has lost some of the lead he had in earlier polls against the other Republican candidates," Brown added.

"And in the GOP race, a man who's been out of politics for six years and wasn't that well known to begin with and isn't yet a candidate, Fred Thompson, is doing surprisingly well. If Thompson gets in the race, he looks like he has the potential to be a major factor in the battle for the GOP nomination. His favorable/unfavorable ratio among Republicans is high."

Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Gore tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 43 percent;
  • Gore beats Thompson 48 - 36 percent;
  • Clinton and McCain are tied at 45 - 45 percent;
  • Clinton bests Thompson 48 - 38 percent;
  • Giuliani beats Obama 49 - 38 percent;
  • Obama and McCain are tied at 41 - 41 percent;
  • Obama tops Thompson 42 - 35 percent.
In a Democratic primary matchup, Clinton gets 36 percent, followed by 15 percent for Gore, 13 percent for Obama and 11 percent for John Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 38 percent, with 15 percent for McCain, 7 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 6 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 5 percent for Thompson.

By a 58 - 24 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 47 - 44 percent for Clinton;
  • 47 - 27 percent for McCain;
  • 42 - 17 percent for Obama;
  • 50 - 38 percent for Gore;
  • 44 - 24 percent for Edwards;
  • 63 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 66 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • McCain beats Gore 46 - 39 percent;
  • Gore beats Thompson 44 - 35 percent;
  • McCain edges Clinton 44 - 42 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 45 - 35 percent;
  • Giuliani bests Obama 45 - 37 percent;
  • McCain tops Obama 42 - 36 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 44 - 31 percent.
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 37 percent, followed by 17 percent for Edwards, 14 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Gore.

The Republican primary race is close with 23 percent for Giuliani, 21 percent for McCain, 9 percent for Gingrich, 8 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for Romney.

Ohio voters give Giuliani a 54 - 22 percent favorability rating. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
  • 47 - 43 percent for Clinton;
  • 44 - 41 percent for Gore;
  • 47 - 22 percent for McCain;
  • 41 - 21 percent for Obama;
  • 47 - 24 percent for Edwards;
  • 69 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 73 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion. Pennsylvania Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Gore tops McCain 45 - 42 percent;
  • Gore leads Thompson 48 - 34 percent;
  • McCain edges Clinton 45 - 43 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 47 - 36 percent;
  • Giuliani beats Obama 45 - 41 percent;
  • Obama edges McCain 43 - 41 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 45 - 33 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 36 percent, with 14 percent for Gore and Obama and 13 percent for Edwards.

Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by McCain with 17 percent, Gingrich with 10 percent, Thompson at 6 percent and Romney at 5 percent.

Giuliani gets a 57 - 22 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 48 - 42 percent for Clinton;
  • 51 - 38 percent for Gore;
  • 48 - 24 percent for McCain;
  • 46 - 17 percent for Obama;
  • 49 - 22 percent for Edwards;
  • 66 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 73 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
"Sen. McCain's recent strong public support for the Iraq war appears not to have hurt him, and he's doing better in some cases," Brown said.

"Voters can either love Sen. Clinton or leave her. Her support is very deep, but narrow. Democrats view her favorably 8 - 1, but she turns off independents . So she leads the Democratic primary field, but struggles against Republicans.

"Sen. Obama may have matched Sen. Clinton in fundraising, but he hasn't been able to close the gap among primary voters, where she leads by more than 2 - 1 in all three states. He is still an unknown to more than a third of voters - which gives him an opportunity to move up."

"Perhaps absence does make the heart grow fonder. Vice President Gore generally runs best against any of the Republican candidates. Whatever the reason, should Gore get in, he could reshape the race for the Democratic presidential nomination."

From April 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 987 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 388 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent, and 371 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
  • 1,083 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 350 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and 409 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent;
  • 988 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 425 Republicans and 425 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.











1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS 
                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Biden                    2%      1%      2% 
Clark                    -       -       -  
Clinton                 36      37      36   
Dodd                     -       -       -   
Edwards                 11      17      13   
Gore                    15      11      14   
Gravel                   -       -       -   
Kucinich                 2       3       1   
Obama                   13      14      14   
Richardson               2       1       2   
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       2   
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       1   
DK/NA                   14      14      16  




2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS 
                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Brownback                -       2%      1% 
Gilmore                  -       -       -  
Gingrich                 6       9      10  
Giuliani                38      23      29  
Hagel                    -       -       1  
Huckabee                 -       -       2  
Hunter                   -       -       -  
McCain                  15      21      17  
Pataki                   1       -       1  
Paul                     -       -       -  
Romney                   7       6       5  
Tancredo                 1       1       -  
Thompson, F.             5       8       6  
Thompson, T.             1       -       1  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       4       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       3  
DK/NA                   21      23      21 




1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.........
                                                Apr 2
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     2007


Biden 2% 2% 2% 1% Clark - 1 - 1 Clinton 36 33 38 36 Dodd - 1 - - Edwards 11 13 9 11 Gore 15 18 13 16 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 2 3 1 1 Obama 13 10 15 13 Richardson 2 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 12 16 14

Mar 22 OH......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 1% 1% 1% 1% Clark - - - - Clinton 37 22 47 32 Dodd - - - - Edwards 17 21 15 11 Gore 11 17 6 14 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 3 6 2 3 Obama 14 16 12 22 Richardson 1 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 DK/NA 14 13 16 15

Mar 29 PA......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 2% - 3% 4% Clark - - - - Clinton 36 29 41 36 Dodd - - - - Edwards 13 15 11 9 Gore 14 19 11 13 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 1 1 1 - Obama 14 16 13 17 Richardson 2 3 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 14 17 16



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................. 
                                                WtBrnAgn  Apr 2
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
Brownback                -       -       1%      -         1%
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -         -
Gingrich                 6       8       4       9        11
Giuliani                38      40      36      33        35
Hagel                    -       -       -       -         -
Huckabee                 -       -       -       -         -
Hunter                   -       -       1       -         -
McCain                  15      18      12      20        15
Pataki                   1       2       -       -         -
Paul                     -       -       -       -         1
Romney                   7       7       6       4         5
Tancredo                 1       2       -       1         -
Thompson, F.             5       6       3       5         6
Thompson, T.             1       1       -       1         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       2         3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       2       -         3
DK/NA                   21      13      31      24        19
 
                                                WtBrnAgn  Mar 22
OH......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
Brownback                2%      4%      1%      1%        -
Gilmore                  -       -       1       1         1
Gingrich                 9      13       5      11         8
Giuliani                23      17      30      16        31
Hagel                    -       -       1       -         1
Huckabee                 -       1       -       -         1
Hunter                   -       1       -       -         -
McCain                  21      23      19      29        20
Pataki                   -       -       -       -         -
Paul                     -       -       -       -         -
Romney                   6       6       6       5         6
Tancredo                 1       1       -       -         1
Thompson, F.             8      11       4       7         6
Thompson, T.             -       -       -       -         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       3       5       5         1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       1       -         1
DK/NA                   23      19      26      23        23
 
                                                WtBrnAgn  Mar 29
PA......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
Brownback                1%      -       1%      2%        1%
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -         -
Gingrich                10      12       9      10         7
Giuliani                29      28      29      30        33
Hagel                    1       2       1       -         -
Huckabee                 2       3       -       3         -
Hunter                   -       -       1       1         1
McCain                  17      16      17      16        18
Pataki                   1       1       -       -         1
Paul                     -       -       -       -         -
Romney                   5       6       4       4         5
Tancredo                 -       -       -       1         -
Thompson, F.             6       9       4       4         6
Thompson, T.             1       1       2       1         -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       2         3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3       3         1
DK/NA                   21      16      28      23        22




3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  


Clinton 41% 41% 43% Giuliani 49 46 47

Obama 38% 37% 41% Giuliani 49 45 45

Gore 43% 39% 44% Giuliani 47 47 44



Clinton 45% 42% 43% McCain 45 44 45

Obama 41% 36% 43% McCain 41 42 41

Gore 46% 39% 45% McCain 43 46 42



Clinton 48% 45% 47% Thompson 38 35 36

Obama 42% 44% 45% Thompson 35 31 33

Gore 48% 44% 48% Thompson 36 35 34



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  


Clinton 41% 41% 43% Giuliani 49 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 9 6



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 41%      3%     79%     41%     33%     48%     26% 
Giuliani                49      91      13      44      58      40      67 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       1       1       1       - 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       4       2       3       2 
DK/NA                    7       5       6      10       5       9       5
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 41%      8%     81%     29%     34%     47%     31% 
Giuliani                46      83      10      54      54      39      56 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       2       2       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       4       4       2       3 
DK/NA                    9       5       7      12       6      12       9
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 43%      8%     78%     35%     39%     47%     26% 
Giuliani                47      86      16      46      52      43      64 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       -       3       1       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       -       7       2       2       2 
DK/NA                    6       4       5       9       6       7       7




4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Obama                   38%     37%     41% 
Giuliani                49      45      45  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       2       1  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2  
DK/NA                   10      13      12 




4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   38%      6%     69%     42%     34%     41%     20% 
Giuliani                49      85      20      43      57      42      65 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       -       1       -       1       -       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       3       3       3       2 
DK/NA                   10       9       9      12       6      14      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   37%     11%     70%     28%     33%     41%     25% 
Giuliani                45      76      16      48      51      39      54 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       2       2       2       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       4       3       5       3       5 
DK/NA                   13      10       8      18       9      17      14
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   41%      8%     71%     38%     37%     44%     22% 
Giuliani                45      79      16      42      52      38      59 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       2       2       2       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       -       4       2       2       1 
DK/NA                   12      11      11      14       8      15      17




5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    43%     39%     44 
Giuliani                47      47      44 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2 
DK/NA                    7      10       9




5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Gore 43% 4% 82% 43% 39% 46% 25% Giuliani 47 91 12 40 54 40 66 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 4 4 12 4 10 6

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 39% 8% 73% 30% 35% 43% 28% Giuliani 47 84 17 50 52 43 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 10 6 7 14 8 11 10

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 44% 11% 75% 37% 43% 44% 23% Giuliani 44 81 15 44 48 41 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 2 3 1 DK/NA 9 6 7 12 6 11 11



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

........................FL      OH      PA  


Clinton 45% 42% 43% McCain 45 44 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 6 10 8



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 45%      7%     81%     46%     39%     50%     26% 
McCain                  45      90      11      37      52      39      68 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       2       1       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       5       4       3       2 
DK/NA                    6       3       5      10       4       7       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 42%      8%     79%     32%     33%     49%     30% 
McCain                  44      83      12      49      54      36      57 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       1       2       2       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       1       3       3       2       1 
DK/NA                   10       6       7      14       8      12      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 43%      6%     79%     36%     35%     51%     25% 
McCain                  45      86      13      44      53      37      61 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       1       6       3       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       3       1       2       2 
DK/NA                    8       6       6      11       7      10      11




7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

........................FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Obama                   41%     36%     43% 
McCain                  41      42      41  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       2  
DK/NA                   13      16      13 




7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   41%      9%     72%     47%     38%     44%     23% 
McCain                  41      80      10      33      49      33      59 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       2       2       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       3       4       3       3       4 
DK/NA                   13      10      13      14       8      17      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   36%     10%     64%     32%     32%     40%     24% 
McCain                  42      73      18      45      51      34      52 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       3       2       2       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       3       4       4       5 
DK/NA                   16      14      12      18      11      20      17
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   43%      9%     71%     43%     37%     48%     26% 
McCain                  41      77      16      35      51      31      55 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       3       3       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       1       3       1       2       1 
DK/NA                   13      12      10      16       8      17      17




8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Gore                    46%     39%     45% 
McCain                  43      46      42  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2  
DK/NA                    7      10       9 




8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    46%      7%     85%     46%     42%     50%     25% 
McCain                  43      87      10      36      50      37      66 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       1       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       1       5       3       3       1 
DK/NA                    7       4       3      11       4       9       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    39%      6%     75%     30%     34%     42%     29% 
McCain                  46      86      12      52      52      41      58 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       2       1       2       2       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       4       4       3       3 
DK/NA                   10       6       9      13       7      13       9
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    45%     10%     79%     40%     42%     48%     23% 
McCain                  42      80      12      42      48      37      60 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       1       5       2       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       2       3       2       3       3 
DK/NA                    9       7       7      10       7      10      12




9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Clinton                 48%     45%     47% 
Thompson                38      35      36  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3  
DK/NA                    9      14      12 




9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 48%      9%     85%     50%     41%     54%     29% 
Thompson                38      81       7      27      47      30      59 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       3       1       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       6       4       3       2 
DK/NA                    9       8       5      14       7      11       9
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 45%     12%     82%     36%     37%     52%     35% 
Thompson                35      74       7      38      43      29      43 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       3       2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       4       4       2       2 
DK/NA                   14      12       8      19      13      15      17
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%     10%     85%     40%     41%     54%     29% 
Thompson                36      73       5      36      44      28      51 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       4       2       2       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       5       4       3       5 
DK/NA                   12      12       7      15       9      14      15




10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   42%     44%     45 
Thompson                35      31      33 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2 
DK/NA                   17      20      17




10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   42%      9%     72%     47%     37%     45%     25% 
Thompson                35      74       6      27      45      27      51 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       3       1       2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       3       8       4       4       5 
DK/NA                   17      14      16      17      11      22      17
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   44%     14%     72%     41%     39%     48%     31% 
Thompson                31      63       8      30      39      25      40 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       4       2       2       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1       4       3       5       2       4 
DK/NA                   20      22      12      23      16      23      22
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   45%     14%     75%     42%     43%     48%     30% 
Thompson                33      66       8      32      40      26      44 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       3       3       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       4       2       3       2 
DK/NA                   17      17      14      19      13      22      23




11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Gore                    48%     44%     48% 
Thompson                36      35      34  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3  
DK/NA                   12      15      14 




11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    48%      8%     87%     49%     45%     51%     30% 
Thompson                36      78       5      27      43      29      55 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       2       1       1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       2       5       2       3       2 
DK/NA                   12      12       6      17       8      15      12
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    44%      9%     80%     39%     39%     49%     32% 
Thompson                35      76       7      34      40      31      46 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       3       3       2       1       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       3       4       5       3       2 
DK/NA                   15      14       8      20      14      16      18
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Gore                    48%     15%     82%     41%     47%     49%     31% 
Thompson                34      69       6      32      38      30      47 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       2       2       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       3       2       3       1 
DK/NA                   14      12       9      20      10      17      20




12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?

                        FL      OH      PA  
- Hillary Clinton                           
Favorable               47%     47%     48% 
Unfavorable             44      43      42  
Hvn't hrd enough         6       8       7  
REFUSED                  3       2       3 
 
- John Edwards                              
Favorable               44%     47%     49% 
Unfavorable             24      24      22  
Hvn't hrd enough        29      27      27  
REFUSED                  3       1       2 
 
- Rudy Giuliani                             
Favorable               58%     54%     57% 
Unfavorable             24      22      22  
Hvn't hrd enough        15      22      18  
REFUSED                  3       2       3 
 
- Al Gore                                   
Favorable               50%     44%     51% 
Unfavorable             38      41      38  
Hvn't hrd enough        10      12      10  
REFUSED                  3       3       2 
 
- John McCain                               
Favorable               47%     47%     48% 
Unfavorable             27      22      24  
Hvn't hrd enough        23      28      24  
REFUSED                  3       3       4 
 
- Barack Obama                             
Favorable               42%     41%     46% 
Unfavorable             17      21      17 
Hvn't hrd enough        39      36      35 
REFUSED                  1       2       3
 
- Mitt Romney                               
Favorable               17%     15%     13% 
Unfavorable             15      11      13  
Hvn't hrd enough        66      73      73  
REFUSED                  2       1       2 
 
- Fred Thompson                             
Favorable               25%     21%     23% 
Unfavorable             10      10      10  
Hvn't hrd enough        63      69      66  
REFUSED                  2       1       2 




12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?

12. - Hillary Clinton
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 44 43 42 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 7 REFUSED 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 12% 81% 48% 40% 53% 30% Unfavorable 44 82 10 39 52 37 64 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 7 7 4 7 6 REFUSED 3 2 2 6 4 2 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 15% 80% 39% 39% 53% 35% Unfavorable 43 79 13 48 51 37 54 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 6 11 8 8 9 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 16% 79% 42% 40% 55% 32% Unfavorable 42 77 11 48 49 37 59 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 7 9 6 7 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 2



13. - John Edwards
                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Favorable               44%     47%     49% 
Unfavorable             24      24      22  
Hvn't hrd enough        29      27      27  
REFUSED                  3       1       2 


WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 23% 65% 48% 41% 47% 36% Unfavorable 24 45 8 18 30 19 32 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 24 32 26 31 27 REFUSED 3 5 2 2 3 3 5 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 29% 67% 45% 43% 51% 47% Unfavorable 24 44 10 22 33 17 26 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 22 32 23 31 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 34% 65% 46% 46% 52% 47% Unfavorable 22 39 8 19 28 15 24 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 26 32 24 31 28 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2



14. - Rudy Giuliani
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 58% 54% 57% Unfavorable 24 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 15 22 18 REFUSED 3 2 3

WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 58% 83% 37% 57% 64% 53% 65% Unfavorable 24 3 43 25 20 27 16 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 16 15 12 17 17 REFUSED 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 54% 70% 35% 62% 58% 51% 56% Unfavorable 22 9 38 17 23 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 22 18 25 19 17 26 23 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 57% 76% 42% 55% 60% 55% 64% Unfavorable 22 10 34 23 24 20 10 Hvn't hrd enough 18 11 21 18 13 22 22 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 3



15. - Al Gore
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 50% 44% 51% Unfavorable 38 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 10 REFUSED 3 3 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 50% 13% 79% 57% 45% 53% 33% Unfavorable 38 77 8 30 44 33 57 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 9 8 11 6 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 13% 73% 43% 42% 47% 34% Unfavorable 41 78 14 41 48 36 51 Hvn't hrd enough 12 7 11 14 8 15 11 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 51% 23% 77% 46% 48% 53% 32% Unfavorable 38 68 11 43 40 36 54 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 12 7 10 10 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 1



16. - John McCain
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 27 22 24 Hvn't hrd enough 23 28 24 REFUSED 3 3 4 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 71% 27% 49% 53% 42% 60% Unfavorable 27 7 43 29 25 28 17 Hvn't hrd enough 23 19 27 18 18 27 20 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 64% 32% 52% 58% 38% 53% Unfavorable 22 10 34 19 20 23 17 Hvn't hrd enough 28 23 31 27 18 37 28 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 70% 33% 47% 54% 43% 52% Unfavorable 24 11 36 25 25 24 17 Hvn't hrd enough 24 16 29 22 17 29 28 REFUSED 4 3 2 6 4 3 3



17. - Barack Obama
                        FL      OH      PA 


Favorable 42% 41% 46% Unfavorable 17 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 39 36 35 REFUSED 1 2 3 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 25% 59% 47% 37% 46% 33% Unfavorable 17 29 5 18 24 11 23 Hvn't hrd enough 39 45 35 33 37 41 43 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 41% 27% 53% 42% 38% 44% 30% Unfavorable 21 35 12 18 26 17 29 Hvn't hrd enough 36 35 35 37 34 37 39 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 3 1 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 28% 57% 52% 45% 46% 34% Unfavorable 17 26 7 18 18 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 35 42 35 26 33 36 42 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 3 2 3



18. - Mitt Romney
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 17% 15% 13% Unfavorable 15 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 73 73 REFUSED 2 1 2 WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 28% 11% 9% 21% 12% 19% Unfavorable 15 8 21 18 16 13 12 Hvn't hrd enough 66 62 66 70 60 72 67 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 28% 8% 13% 20% 11% 20% Unfavorable 11 7 16 10 11 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 73 64 75 76 67 78 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 13% 22% 6% 10% 14% 11% 14% Unfavorable 13 9 15 15 16 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 68 78 73 67 78 78 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2



19. - Fred Thompson
                        FL      OH      PA  


Favorable 25% 21% 23% Unfavorable 10 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 69 66 REFUSED 2 1 2

WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 41% 15% 18% 31% 19% 32% Unfavorable 10 2 17 11 9 10 4 Hvn't hrd enough 63 55 67 66 56 70 62 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 36% 10% 21% 29% 14% 22% Unfavorable 10 3 15 11 11 9 8 Hvn't hrd enough 69 61 74 67 59 76 68 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 36% 13% 22% 27% 19% 25% Unfavorable 10 4 16 9 11 8 2 Hvn't hrd enough 66 58 70 66 60 71 70 REFUSED 2 1 - 3 1 2 2



20. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

                        FL      OH      PA  


Democrat 45% 44% 45% Republican 33 32 31 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 15 17 18 DK/NA 7 7 7



20. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Democrat                45%      4%     88%     43%     40%     50%     24% 
Republican              33      82       1      17      39      28      57 
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)    15      11       8      27      16      14      13 
DK/NA                    7       3       3      12       6       8       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Democrat                44%      3%     91%     30%     36%     50%     32% 
Republican              32      79       2      27      38      27      44 
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)    17      13       6      31      19      15      19 
DK/NA                    7       5       1      13       7       8       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Democrat                45%      7%     83%     38%     40%     49%     25% 
Republican              31      70       2      24      39      23      45 
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)    18      19      12      23      17      19      20 
DK/NA                    7       5       2      15       5       9      10
 


21. (If party chosen q20) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ 
                                PARTY CHOICE Q20  
FL......................Tot     Dem     Rep


Made up 60% 60% 59% Might change 38 36 40 DK/NA 3 3 2 PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ PARTY CHOICE Q20 OH......................Tot Dem Rep

Made up 51% 56% 45% Might change 46 42 52 DK/NA 2 2 3 PARTY CHOSEN Q20........ PARTY CHOICE Q20 PA......................Tot Dem Rep

Made up 54% 59% 47% Might change 45 40 52 DK/NA 2 1 2



22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?

                        DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom
 
Brownback                -       -       -  
Gilmore                  1       1       -  
Gingrich                 1       2       1  
Giuliani                24      23      25  
Hagel                    4       5       3  
Huckabee                 1       -       1  
Hunter                   -       -       -  
McCain                  22      24      21  
Pataki                   3       6       2  
Paul                     -       -       -  
Romney                   3       3       4  
Tancredo                 -       -       -  
Thompson, F.             4       4       4  
Thompson, T.             2       5       -  
WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL)  17      12      20  
OTHER(VOL)               -       -       -  
DK/NA                   18      15      20 




22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?

                        DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 
OH......................Tot     Men     Wom
 
Brownback                -       -       -  
Gilmore                  1       2       -  
Gingrich                 1       2       1  
Giuliani                30      25      32  
Hagel                    2       4       1  
Huckabee                 -       -       1  
Hunter                   -       -       -  
McCain                  25      29      23  
Pataki                   1       1       1  
Paul                     -       -       -  
Romney                   1       2       1  
Tancredo                 -       -       -  
Thompson, F.             3       3       3  
Thompson, T.             1       2       1  
WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL)  19      19      19  
OTHER(VOL)               -       -       -  
DK/NA                   15      11      17 




22a. (If 'democrat' q20) Among the Republican candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, or Tommy Thompson?

                        DEMOCRAT CHOSEN Q20 
PA......................Tot     Men     Wom
 
Brownback                -       -       - 
Gilmore                  -       1       -  
Gingrich                 5       9       1  
Giuliani                30      24      35  
Hagel                    3       3       3  
Huckabee                 2       4       1  
Hunter                   -       -       -  
McCain                  21      27      16  
Pataki                   1       1       2  
Paul                     1       2       1  
Romney                   3       3       3  
Tancredo                 -       -       -  
Thompson, F.             4       3       5  
Thompson, T.             -       -       1  
WLDN'T VT FOR REP(VOL)  15      13      18  
OTHER(VOL)               -       -       -  
DK/NA                   13      10      16 




22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?

                        REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... 
                                                WtBrnAgn 
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    5%      6%      3%      4% 
Clark                    1       2       1       2 
Clinton                  7       5       8       5 
Dodd                     2       2       2       1 
Edwards                 16      14      19      19 
Gore                     9      11       6       9 
Gravel                   -       -       -       - 
Kucinich                 1       1       -       - 
Obama                   17      14      20      20 
Richardson               7      12       1       3 
WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL)  22      25      20      21 
OTHER(VOL)               -       -       -       - 
DK/NA                   13       7      20      14




22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?

                        REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... 
                                                WtBrnAgn 
OH......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    4%      4%      3%      5% 
Clark                    1       1       1       1 
Clinton                  9       8      10      11 
Dodd                     -       -       -       - 
Edwards                 17      13      21      19 
Gore                     9      12       5      10 
Gravel                   -       -       -       - 
Kucinich                 2       1       4       1 
Obama                   18      18      17      11 
Richardson               5       8       2       5 
WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL)  19      19      19      19 
OTHER(VOL)               -       1       -       1 
DK/NA                   16      14      18      16
 
 
22b. (If 'republican' q20) Among the Democratic candidates, which one would you be most likely to support? -- Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama or Bill Richardson?

                        REPUBLICAN CHOSEN Q20........... 
                                                WtBrnAgn 
PA......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    8%      8%      7%      3% 
Clark                    1       1       -       1 
Clinton                  8       5      12      11 
Dodd                     1       1       1       3 
Edwards                 16      13      20      24 
Gore                     7       9       3       6 
Gravel                   -       -       -       - 
Kucinich                 2       3       1       - 
Obama                   18      19      17      18 
Richardson               7       9       4       6 
WLDN'T VT FOR DEM(VOL)  21      23      19      20 
OTHER(VOL)               -       -       -       - 
DK/NA                   11       8      16       8