June 27, 2007 - Giuliani Slipping In Swing States As Clinton, Thompson Gain, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Giuliani 48 - Clinton 42; OHIO: Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton, Giuliani tied at 45

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Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is losing ground in the 2008 general election and Republican primaries in three critical states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton ties Giuliani in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has not formally declared his candidacy, has gained in primary matchups, and passed or tied Arizona Sen. John McCain in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Head to head matchups show:
  • Florida - Giuliani beats Clinton 48 - 42 percent, compared to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead June 7;
  • Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to May 16 when Giuliani led 47 - 43 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Giuliani and Clinton are tied 45 - 45 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Giuliani lead May 31.
"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's margins against the Democrats in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida are shrinking, but the differences remain small, especially between the two front-runners, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Giuliani," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Clinton's numbers are as reliable as a Swiss watch. Her support and lead remain rock solid among the Democrats in these key states."

"If Sen. Obama is catching Clinton in the primary contest, there is no evidence of it in Florida and Ohio. But in November, the large number of non-Democrats who view her negatively keeps a cap on her showing against Republicans," Brown added.

"Giuliani's lead among Republicans continues to dwindle. Perhaps his much-discussed difference with the GOP mainstream over issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control are beginning to take its toll.

"The Fred Thompson express continues to roll. He has passed Sen. John McCain for second place in the Republican field in Florida and Ohio, and caught McCain in Pennsylvania. Now the question is whether his candidacy, once he begins active campaigning, will be as strong in the flesh as it appears on paper." Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Giuliani tops Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 39 percent;
  • Giuliani beats former Vice President Al Gore 49 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton gets 44 percent to Arizona Sen. John McCain's 43 percent;
  • Obama and McCain are tied at 42 - 42 percent;
  • McCain gets 44 percent to Gore's 43 percent;
  • Clinton beats Thompson 46 - 41 percent;
  • Gore edges Thompson 45 - 42 percent;
  • Obama gets 43 percent to Thompson's 41 percent.
In a Democratic primary matchup, Clinton gets 38 percent, followed by 15 percent for Obama, 13 percent for Gore and 8 percent for John Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 27 percent, with 21 percent for Thompson, 13 percent for McCain, 7 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 6 percent for Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

By a 54 - 28 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 47 - 47 percent for Clinton;
  • 44 - 29 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 19 percent for Obama;
  • 47 - 40 percent for Gore;
  • 37 - 32 percent for Edwards;
  • 54 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • Giuliani gets 42 percent to Obama's 40 percent;
  • Gore gets 44 percent to Giuliani's 43 percent;
  • Clinton gets 44 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
  • Obama tops McCain 43 - 38 percent;
  • McCain gets 43 percent to Gore's 41 percent;
  • Clinton beats Thompson 47 - 38 percent;
  • Gore tops Thompson 44 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 43 - 35 percent.
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 40 percent, followed by 12 percent each for Obama, Edwards and Gore.

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 25 percent, with 17 percent for Thompson, 16 percent for McCain, 7 percent for Romney and 6 percent for Gingrich.

Ohio voters give Giuliani a 50 - 23 percent favorability rating. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
  • 47 - 44 percent for Clinton;
  • 47 - 43 percent for Gore;
  • 41 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 43 - 20 percent for Obama;
  • 45 - 25 percent for Edwards;
  • 61 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 67 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Pennsylvania Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Giuliani gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent;
  • Giuliani edges Gore 46 - 44 percent;
  • Clinton beats McCain 46 - 42 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 49 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats McCain 44 - 39 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 50 - 33 percent;
  • Gore tops McCain 48 - 41 percent;
  • Gore beats Thompson 50 - 37 percent.
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 32 percent, with 18 percent for Obama, 16 percent for Gore and 7 percent for Edwards.

Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by 15 percent each for McCain and Thompson, 5 percent for Gingrich and 3 percent for Romney.

Giuliani gets a 53 - 27 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 48 - 42 percent for Clinton;
  • 52 - 38 percent for Gore;
  • 45 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 46 - 20 percent for Obama;
  • 43 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 58 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
"In these three swing states, Sen. Obama is way behind Sen. Clinton among Democrats and shows no sign of closing the gap in two of them, yet he runs about as well as she does against the leading Republicans," Brown said.

"Sen. McCain, the consensus front-runner six months ago, continues to struggle. It's likely that his support for President Bush on the war is hurting him among Democrats and independents, and his backing of the president's immigration bill is costing him Republican votes. His trend line could become a flat line.

"Former Gov. Romney may be leading in fundraising and in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but in these swing states he is not a factor in the Republican primary fight."

From June 18 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 949 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 373 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 359 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent;
  • 1,013 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 343 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent, and 370 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
  • 958 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 398 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and 444 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent.



The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        FL      OH     PA  
                                           
Biden                    2%      1%     5%  
Clinton                 38      40     32   
Dodd                     1       -      1   
Edwards                  8      12      7   
Gore                    13      12     16   
Gravel                   -       -      -   
Kucinich                 1       3      1   
Obama                   15      12     18   
Richardson               2       1      2   
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2      2   
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1      2   
DK/NA                   15      16     15  


WITHOUT GORE (Based on second choice of Gore Supporters)

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Biden                    2%      1%      6%
Clinton                 43      46      38 
Dodd                     1       -       1 
Edwards                 11      15      10 
Gravel                   -       -       - 
Kucinich                 1       3       1 
Obama                   16      14      22 
Richardson               2       1       2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1       3 
DK/NA                   18      17      15 


WITHOUT EDWARDS (Based on second choice of Edwards Supporters)

                        FL      OH      PA    
                                              
Biden                    2%      1%      5%   
Clinton                 40      45      35    
Dodd                     2       -       1    
Gore                    15      12      17    
Gravel                   -       -       -    
Kucinich                 2       4       1    
Obama                   16      15      19    
Richardson               2       1       3    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       1       2    
DK/NA                   16      18      16    




1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?



                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.........
                                                Jun 7
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     2007


Biden 2% 2% 1% 2% Clinton 38 33 40 34 Dodd 1 3 - 1 Edwards 8 8 8 11 Gore 13 14 11 13 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 1 4 - 1 Obama 15 14 16 16 Richardson 2 3 1 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 2 DK/NA 15 11 17 14

May 16 OH......................Tot Men Wom 2007 Biden 1% 2% - 1% Clinton 40 35 44 38 Dodd - - - - Edwards 12 13 11 11 Gore 12 14 10 10 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 3 6 1 2 Obama 12 15 10 19 Richardson 1 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - DK/NA 16 10 20 14

May 31 PA......................Tot Men Wom 2007

Biden 5% 6% 4% 3% Clinton 32 26 36 33 Dodd 1 2 - - Edwards 7 6 9 11 Gore 16 24 11 16 Gravel - 1 - - Kucinich 1 - 1 1 Obama 18 15 19 13 Richardson 2 3 1 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 DK/NA 15 11 17 16



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Gingrich                 7       6       5 
Giuliani                27      25      29 
Huckabee                 1       2       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
McCain                  13      16      15 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   6       7       3 
Tancredo                 1       -       - 
Thompson, F.            21      17      15 
Thompson, T.             1       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3 
DK/NA                   18      22      24 


WITHOUT McCAIN (Based on second choice of McCain supporters)

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Gingrich                 7       7       6 
Giuliani                33      31      34 
Huckabee                 1       3       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   6       8       5 
Tancredo                 1       -       - 
Thompson, F.            22      18      17 
Thompson, T.             2       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       3 
DK/NA                   21      26      28 


WITHOUT GINGRICH (Based on second choice of Gingrich supporters)

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                -       -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       1 
Giuliani                29      26      29 
Huckabee                 1       2       1 
Hunter                   -       -       - 
McCain                  13      16      16 
Paul                     2       -       - 
Romney                   8       8       4 
Tancredo                 1       1       - 
Thompson, F.            22      18      15 
Thompson, T.             1       1       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3 
DK/NA                   19      23      25 




2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................
                                                WtBrnAgn Jun 7
FL......................Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl  2007


Brownback - - - - 1% Gilmore - - - - - Gingrich 7 10 3 7 7 Giuliani 27 27 26 26 31 Huckabee 1 - 1 1 - Hunter - - - - 1 McCain 13 14 12 8 10 Paul 2 3 - - - Romney 6 6 5 4 8 Tancredo 1 2 - 1 - Thompson, F. 21 22 20 24 14 Thompson, T. 1 1 - 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 4 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 4 3 DK/NA 18 10 27 24 21

WtBrnAgn May 16 OH......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007

Brownback - - - - - Gilmore - - - - - Gingrich 6 8 3 7 6 Giuliani 25 25 25 24 23 Huckabee 2 3 2 4 2 Hunter - - - - - McCain 16 13 18 16 17 Paul - - - - - Romney 7 7 7 7 11 Tancredo - - - - - Thompson, F. 17 24 9 14 15 Thompson, T. 1 1 1 - 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 22 13 31 24 18

WtBrnAgn May 31 PA......................Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007

Brownback 1% 1% - 1% 1% Gilmore 1 2 - 2 - Gingrich 5 5 4 8 8 Giuliani 29 28 30 27 28 Huckabee 1 1 1 2 1 Hunter - - - - - McCain 15 15 15 17 11 Paul - - - - 1 Romney 3 3 4 3 9 Tancredo - - - - 1 Thompson, F. 15 19 10 15 10 Thompson, T. 1 2 - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 3 DK/NA 24 20 28 19 23



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 42%     43%     45%
Giuliani                48      43      45 
                                           
Obama                   39%     40%     43%
Giuliani                47      42      44 


Gore 40% 44% 44% Giuliani 49 43 46

Clinton 44% 44% 46% McCain 43 42 42

Obama 42% 43% 44% McCain 42 38 39

Gore 43% 41% 48% McCain 44 43 41

Clinton 46% 47% 49% Thompson 41 38 38

Obama 43% 43% 50% Thompson 41 35 33

Gore 45% 44% 50% Thompson 42 38 37



3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA  
                                            
Clinton                 42%     43%     45% 
Giuliani                48      43      45  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       2  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       3  
DK/NA                    5       8       5  


3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                       WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot    Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 42% 6% 83% 34% 36% 47% 26% Giuliani 48 88 11 47 53 45 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 4 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 3 11 6 5 6

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 43% 6% 83% 33% 37% 49% 29% Giuliani 43 85 9 49 50 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 6 5 3 3 DK/NA 8 4 5 12 7 9 6

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 45% 10% 82% 36% 36% 55% 28% Giuliani 45 83 14 47 54 36 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 7 3 2 3 DK/NA 5 5 2 7 5 6 5



4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   39%     40%     43%
Giuliani                47      42      44 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3 
DK/NA                    8      12       9 




4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
                             
Obama                   39%      9%     73%     30%     35%     42%     22%
Giuliani                47      85      16      46      51      44      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       5       4       5       4       5
DK/NA                    8       3       6      16       8       8       7


WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 40% 7% 73% 31% 38% 41% 26% Giuliani 42 80 14 46 48 37 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 - 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 4 4 4 DK/NA 12 9 7 17 9 15 16

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 43% 9% 73% 42% 37% 48% 25% Giuliani 44 83 17 37 51 37 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 3 2 4 DK/NA 9 6 6 14 7 11 10



5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    40%     44%     44%
Giuliani                49      43      46 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3 
DK/NA                    6       8       7 




5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Gore 40% 9% 76% 33% 37% 42% 28% Giuliani 49 86 14 47 51 47 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 DK/NA 6 1 6 13 7 6 5

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 44% 5% 77% 40% 41% 46% 31% Giuliani 43 86 11 44 47 39 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 4 1 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 5 11 6 10 8

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 44% 7% 74% 45% 37% 50% 25% Giuliani 46 87 17 42 53 38 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 7 5 4 8 6 7 7



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA


Clinton 44% 44% 46 McCain 43 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 9 6



6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 44% 5% 87% 35% 38% 49% 25% McCain 43 86 6 44 47 40 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 6 3 4 DK/NA 6 3 4 11 7 5 7

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 44% 5% 84% 37% 39% 49% 30% McCain 42 87 9 44 47 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 5 4 3 2 DK/NA 9 6 5 11 7 10 8

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 46% 11% 83% 37% 37% 55% 28% McCain 42 78 14 41 50 34 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 6 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 8 3 3 3 DK/NA 6 5 2 8 6 6 4



7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 


Obama 42% 43% 44% McCain 42 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 4 DK/NA 10 11 11

7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Obama 42% 9% 78% 36% 38% 46% 21% McCain 42 82 12 38 46 39 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 4 6 3 4 DK/NA 10 3 6 18 9 10 13

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Obama 43% 11% 75% 37% 44% 43% 27% McCain 38 77 12 39 41 36 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 5 2 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 3 6 5 5 3 DK/NA 11 9 6 15 8 14 13

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Obama 44% 10% 73% 44% 39% 49% 27% McCain 39 75 15 31 44 33 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 6 4 4 6 DK/NA 11 9 6 16 10 12 9



8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    43%     41%     48%
McCain                  44      43      41 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3 
DK/NA                    7      10       6 


8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Gore 43% 9% 80% 36% 39% 46% 26% McCain 44 84 12 40 47 41 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 5 3 4 DK/NA 7 3 5 15 6 8 8

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 41% 3% 75% 36% 38% 43% 27% McCain 43 87 11 43 48 38 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 4 3 2 DK/NA 10 6 8 14 7 13 10

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 48% 9% 80% 47% 42% 54% 33% McCain 41 82 12 35 46 35 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 6 3 4 4 DK/NA 6 5 3 8 6 6 5



9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 46%     47%     49%
Thompson                41      38      38 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       2 
DK/NA                    6       9       8 


9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Clinton 46% 10% 89% 37% 39% 53% 28% Thompson 41 83 5 41 47 37 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 2 8 6 3 5 DK/NA 6 3 4 11 6 6 8

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 47% 7% 88% 40% 41% 53% 32% Thompson 38 85 5 36 46 31 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 4 3 4 DK/NA 9 5 5 15 8 11 10

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Clinton 49% 14% 84% 43% 40% 58% 33% Thompson 38 74 10 37 46 30 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 7 4 12 9 8 6



10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   43%     43%     50%
Thompson                41      35      33 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       5       3 
DK/NA                   11      14      13 




10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Obama 43% 11% 79% 38% 38% 47% 25% Thompson 41 80 11 34 45 37 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 6 6 3 3 DK/NA 11 6 6 19 9 12 13

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Obama 43% 14% 73% 36% 41% 45% 30% Thompson 35 73 11 34 44 27 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 5 2 2 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 4 7 4 6 4 DK/NA 14 10 7 21 10 17 16

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Obama 50% 17% 79% 50% 47% 52% 30% Thompson 33 67 10 29 38 29 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 13 12 8 15 11 14 14



11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Gore                    45%     44%     50%
Thompson                42      38      37 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3 
DK/NA                    8      11       8 




11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Gore 45% 11% 85% 37% 41% 49% 30% Thompson 42 82 7 42 47 37 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 8 4 4 15 5 10 7

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 44% 8% 78% 41% 39% 49% 32% Thompson 38 81 10 35 46 32 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 4 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 5 3 4 3 DK/NA 11 8 5 17 9 13 11

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Gore 50% 11% 83% 52% 44% 57% 32% Thompson 37 76 10 33 43 30 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 8 10 3 10 9 8 8



12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?

                        FL      OH      PA 


- Hillary Clinton Favorable 47% 47% 48% Unfavorable 47 44 42 Hvn't hrd enough 4 7 7 REFUSED 2 2 3

- John Edwards Favorable 37% 45% 43% Unfavorable 32 25 29 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 26 REFUSED 2 2 2

- Rudy Giuliani Favorable 54% 50% 53% Unfavorable 28 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 16 24 17 REFUSED 2 3 3

- Al Gore Favorable 47% 47% 52% Unfavorable 40 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 9 REFUSED 1 2 2

- John McCain Favorable 44% 41% 45% Unfavorable 29 28 28 Hvn't hrd enough 23 28 25 REFUSED 3 2 3

- Barack Obama Favorable 44% 43% 46% Unfavorable 19 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 35 36 33 REFUSED 2 2 2

- Mitt Romney Favorable 21% 14% 19% Unfavorable 16 17 19 Hvn't hrd enough 60 67 60 REFUSED 3 2 1

- Fred Thompson Favorable 32% 25% 27% Unfavorable 12 12 14 Hvn't hrd enough 54 61 58 REFUSED 2 1 1



12-19. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?



12. - Hillary Clinton   FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Favorable               47%     47%     48%
Unfavorable             47      44      42 
Hvn't hrd enough         4       7       7 
REFUSED                  2       2       3 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 47% 11% 84% 43% 41% 52% 25% Unfavorable 47 85 11 48 53 42 67 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 4 7 4 5 6 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 47% 7% 84% 41% 41% 53% 31% Unfavorable 44 87 10 46 51 38 59 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 6 10 7 7 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 2

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 48% 17% 78% 45% 40% 57% 32% Unfavorable 42 77 15 43 49 36 59 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 5 9 7 6 8 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 2 1



13. - John Edwards FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               37%     45%     43%
Unfavorable             32      25      29 
Hvn't hrd enough        29      28      26 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 37% 17% 58% 37% 34% 40% 28% Unfavorable 32 55 13 29 38 27 37 Hvn't hrd enough 29 26 28 30 24 32 33 REFUSED 2 1 - 4 4 1 2

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 45% 20% 68% 41% 45% 45% 40% Unfavorable 25 53 7 24 34 18 30 Hvn't hrd enough 28 24 24 33 20 35 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 43% 24% 60% 43% 39% 47% 30% Unfavorable 29 50 14 28 34 25 36 Hvn't hrd enough 26 23 24 28 26 27 32 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 1 1



14. - Rudy Giuliani FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               54%     50%     53%
Unfavorable             28      23      27 
Hvn't hrd enough        16      24      17 
REFUSED                  2       3       3 


WtBrnAgn FL......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 54% 79% 32% 54% 59% 51% 57% Unfavorable 28 10 47 25 29 26 22 Hvn't hrd enough 16 10 20 17 10 21 19 REFUSED 2 1 2 4 3 2 1

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 50% 72% 32% 53% 53% 48% 53% Unfavorable 23 10 38 17 27 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 24 14 27 28 17 30 25 REFUSED 3 4 2 1 3 2 2

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 53% 79% 34% 51% 60% 46% 62% Unfavorable 27 8 38 36 24 30 18 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 24 11 14 21 18 REFUSED 3 1 5 3 3 3 2



15. - Al Gore FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               47%     47%     52%
Unfavorable             40      43      38 
Hvn't hrd enough        12       8       9 
REFUSED                  1       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 47% 19% 75% 45% 44% 50% 36% Unfavorable 40 72 12 40 46 36 56 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 13 12 8 14 8 REFUSED 1 - - 3 2 1 1

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 47% 13% 74% 46% 46% 48% 34% Unfavorable 43 81 15 42 48 38 53 Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 8 10 4 11 12 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 1 3 2

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 52% 18% 78% 55% 46% 57% 32% Unfavorable 38 74 14 31 42 33 53 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 7 12 10 8 12 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 3



16. - John McCain FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               44%     41%     45%
Unfavorable             29      28      28 
Hvn't hrd enough        23      28      25 
REFUSED                  3       2       3 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 44% 63% 26% 49% 51% 39% 53% Unfavorable 29 17 41 28 32 27 21 Hvn't hrd enough 23 17 31 20 14 31 25 REFUSED 3 3 2 4 3 3 2

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 41% 61% 26% 40% 46% 38% 46% Unfavorable 28 16 39 29 32 26 21 Hvn't hrd enough 28 20 32 30 20 35 30 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2 2 3

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 45% 65% 31% 44% 49% 41% 50% Unfavorable 28 15 36 33 29 26 17 Hvn't hrd enough 25 17 30 21 19 30 30 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 3 3 2



17. - Barack Obama FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               44%     43%     46%
Unfavorable             19      20      20 
Hvn't hrd enough        35      36      33 
REFUSED                  2       2       2 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 44% 30% 61% 40% 42% 45% 26% Unfavorable 19 33 8 17 23 16 33 Hvn't hrd enough 35 36 30 39 32 38 39 REFUSED 2 1 1 5 3 1 2

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 43% 29% 60% 37% 42% 44% 33% Unfavorable 20 35 9 18 23 17 28 Hvn't hrd enough 36 35 30 43 34 38 39 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 1

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 46% 29% 59% 50% 44% 48% 33% Unfavorable 20 33 12 15 21 18 26 Hvn't hrd enough 33 36 27 33 34 31 40 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 1



18. - Mitt Romney FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               21%     14%     19%
Unfavorable             16      17      19 
Hvn't hrd enough        60      67      60 
REFUSED                  3       2       1 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 21% 38% 7% 21% 27% 17% 26% Unfavorable 16 12 23 13 19 13 11 Hvn't hrd enough 60 47 69 62 50 69 61 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 4 1 2

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 14% 29% 6% 9% 18% 10% 16% Unfavorable 17 12 24 15 23 11 16 Hvn't hrd enough 67 57 69 73 57 76 67 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 1

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 19% 36% 6% 21% 22% 16% 23% Unfavorable 19 12 23 25 20 18 11 Hvn't hrd enough 60 52 68 54 56 64 65 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 2



19. - Fred Thompson FL OH PA
                                           
Favorable               32%     25%     27%
Unfavorable             12      12      14 
Hvn't hrd enough        54      61      58 
REFUSED                  2       1       1 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl


Favorable 32% 55% 15% 29% 38% 27% 41% Unfavorable 12 3 19 11 13 10 5 Hvn't hrd enough 54 40 65 56 46 60 53 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 1

WtBrnAgn OH......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 25% 43% 12% 25% 35% 17% 31% Unfavorable 12 2 23 10 16 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 61 54 64 64 48 73 62 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1

WtBrnAgn PA......................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl

Favorable 27% 49% 11% 24% 33% 20% 32% Unfavorable 14 6 20 18 13 15 7 Hvn't hrd enough 58 44 67 56 52 64 60 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2