August 8, 2007 - Clinton Leads Or Ties In Three Swing States, Gay Support Costs Votes, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 44; OHIO: Clinton 43 - Giuliani 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Giuliani 44

Word format

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has inched ahead of her top Republican foe, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in Florida and Pennsylvania, and ties Giuliani in Ohio, her best showing so far in the three states as many voters re-evaluate their previous negative impression of her, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Sen. Clinton has increased her substantial Democratic primary lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 25 points in Ohio, 16 points in Pennsylvania and 30 points in Florida, the first big state to hold a primary, scheduled for January 29, 2008, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Giuliani is treading water in the Republican primary, holding leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain or former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson of seven points in Florida, 18 points in Ohio and 13 points in Pennsylvania.

Head to head matchups show:
  • Florida - Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 44 percent, flipping a 46 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 23;
  • Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to a 44 - 42 percent Clinton lead July 12;
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton edges Giuliani 45 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 45 percent tie June 27.



"Sen. Clinton is inching ahead. Not only does she lead by a nose in two of the most important swing states in the Electoral College, but she is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In the last two months the share of voters who view her favorably has increased to about 50 percent - an important milestone - while the numbers who view her unfavorably has dropped. It is not huge movement, but it is consistent across all three states," Brown added.

"Mayor Giuliani's lead remains solid among Republicans. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's surge in the polls has stalled, perhaps because he has yet to announce. Meanwhile, Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose numbers have been going down in most recent polls, is showing new signs of life in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains largely unknown."

On the eve of the first debate for the Democratic candidates before homosexual rights activists, the poll shows backing from gay rights groups has no effect on most voters. But among the roughly 40 percent who say it might have an impact on their decision, support of a gay rights group, depending on the state, turns off from two to almost four times as many voters as it attracts. On a net basis it makes more independents less likely to vote for such a candidate.

Endorsements from business groups and abortion rights groups also make voters less likely than more likely to back a candidate. The backing of labor groups is a big plus for candidates.

Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Giuliani tops Obama 44 - 41 percent;
  • Obama defeats Thompson 43 - 37 percent;
  • Clinton defeats Thompson 49 - 40 percent.
In a Democratic primary match up, Clinton gets 43 percent, followed by 13 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Gore and 8 percent for John Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 26 percent, with 19 percent for Thompson, 11 percent for McCain, 9 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and 6 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

By a 50 - 42 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. On June 27 it was 47 - 47 percent. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 53 - 26 percent for Giuliani;
  • 34 - 39 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 26 percent for Obama;
  • 42 - 46 percent for former Vice President Al Gore;
  • 42 - 32 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards;
  • 33 - 17 percent for Thompson;
  • 54 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • Giuliani defeats Obama 42 - 39 percent;
  • Clinton bests Thompson 47 - 36 percent;
  • Obama tops Thompson 44 - 32 percent;
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 41 percent, followed by 16 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Edwards and 8 percent for Gore.

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 29 percent, with 11 percent each for Thompson and McCain and 8 percent each for Romney and Gingrich.

Ohio voters give Clinton a 49 - 41 percent favorability rating. In June it was 47 - 44 percent. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
  • 48 - 29 percent for Giuliani;
  • 37 - 50 percent for Gore;
  • 33 - 35 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 25 percent for Obama;
  • 46 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion.
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion. Pennsylvania Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Giuliani defeats Obama 45 - 39 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 50 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 44 - 36 percent;
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 35 percent, with 19 percent for Obama, 12 percent for Gore and 10 percent for Edwards.

Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by 16 percent for McCain, 14 percent for Thompson, 9 percent for Gingrich and 3 percent for Romney.

Clinton gets a 51 - 40 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. On May 31 it was 50 - 44 percent. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 54 - 25 percent for Giuliani;
  • 44 - 42 percent for Gore;
  • 37 - 34 percent for McCain;
  • 47 - 23 percent for Obama;
  • 45 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 63 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.



Special Interest Endorsements

In an effort to see the potential political advantages and liabilities of endorsements from various interest groups, voters were asked whether the backing of abortion rights groups, business groups, Christian conservatives, gay rights groups, gun rights groups and labor groups made them more likely or less likely to support a candidate. For a plurality of voters, these endorsements don't affect their decisions.

In Ohio, 10 percent say the endorsement of a gay rights group would make them more likely to support a candidate while 34 percent say less likely and 54 percent say it would make no difference. In Pennsylvania, 11 percent say it would make them more likely, with 28 percent saying less likely and 59 percent saying it would make no difference. Among Florida voters, 10 percent say more likely, while 28 percent are less likely and 60 percent say it would make no difference.

Conversely, a labor endorsement is the biggest plus, although its support is more useful in Ohio and Pennsylvania than it is in Florida. But a business group endorsement is a negative. The backing of abortion rights groups is also an overall negative in all three states.

The backing of conservative Christian groups is a plus in Ohio, a negative in Florida and a virtual wash in Pennsylvania.

"Being perceived as the candidate of gay rights turns off more voters than it attracts, although in general being considered the candidate of a special interest group seems to be a political loser overall," said Brown.

From July 30 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 962 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 366 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 380 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent;
  • 974 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 344 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent, and 366 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
  • 1,011 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 434 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 419 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Biden                    2%      3       2%
Clinton                 43      41%     35 
Dodd                     -       -       - 
Edwards                  8      11      10 
Gore                    11       8      12 
Gravel                   -       -       - 
Kucinich                 1       2       1 
Obama                   13      16      19 
Richardson               2       1       2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2 
DK/NA                   15      14      15 




2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                2%      -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       - 
Gingrich                 6       8       9 
Giuliani                26      29      29 
Huckabee                 2       1       1 
Hunter                   -       1       1 
McCain                  11      11      16 
Paul                     -       1       3 
Romney                   9       8       3 
Tancredo                 -       -       - 
Thompson, F.            19      11      14 
Thompson, T.             1       2       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       4 
DK/NA                   18      22      16 




1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........
                                                Jul 23
                        Tot     Men     Wom     2007  
FL
Biden                    2%      4%      1%      2%
Clinton                 43      35      48      36
Dodd                     -       -       1       1
Edwards                  8      10       7       9
Gore                    11      12      11      14
Gravel                   -       -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       2       1       2
Obama                   13      11      14      14
Richardson               2       3       -       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       4       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2       3
DK/NA                   15      17      13      14




Jul 12 Tot Men Wom 2007 OH Biden 3% 6% 1% 1% Clinton 41 37 44 35 Dodd - - - - Edwards 11 15 9 13 Gore 8 8 7 12 Gravel - 1 - - Kucinich 2 1 2 3 Obama 16 15 16 17 Bill Richardson 1 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 14 11 16 15



Jun 27 Tot Men Wom 2007 PA Biden 2% 4% 1% 5% Clinton 35 26 41 32 Dodd - - - 1 Edwards 10 13 8 7 Gore 12 15 10 16 Gravel - - - - Kucinich 1 2 - 1 Obama 19 19 19 18 Richardson 2 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 - 2 DK/NA 15 12 16 15



2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS..................
                                                WtBrnAgn  Jul 23
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
FL 
Brownback                2%      4%      -       5%        -
Gilmore                  -       -       1       -         -
Gingrich                 6      10       2       9         5
Giuliani                26      20      32      17        30
Huckabee                 2       3       -       3         1
Hunter                   -       -       -       -         -
McCain                  11      13       9       9        10
Paul                     -       -       1       -         1
Romney                   9       8      11       8         9
Tancredo                 -       1       -       -         1
Thompson, F.            19      26      10      18        18
Thompson, T.             1       -       1       1         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       3       2         2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       1         2
DK/NA                   18       9      28      26        19




WtBrnAgn Jul 12 Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007 OH Brownback - 1% - - 1% Gilmore - - - - 1 Gingrich 8 11 6 10 5 Giuliani 29 26 32 27 24 Huckabee 1 1 - 1 2 Hunter 1 1 - - - McCain 11 16 8 8 14 Paul 1 2 - 2 1 Romney 8 6 10 8 8 Tancredo - - - - - Thompson, F. 11 15 7 9 18 Thompson, T. 2 3 - 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 6 4 2 DK/NA 22 14 30 27 20



WtBrnAgn Jun 27 Tot Men Wom Evnglcl 2007 PA Brownback 1% 1% - 1% 1% Gilmore - - - - 1 Gingrich 9 11 6 8 5 Giuliani 29 28 32 24 29 Huckabee 1 - 1 2 1 Hunter 1 1 - - - McCain 16 14 19 15 15 Paul 3 2 4 3 - Romney 3 3 3 2 3 Tancredo - 1 - - - Thompson, F. 14 20 6 12 15 Thompson, T. 1 1 - 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 5 4 3 DK/NA 16 13 21 25 24



3-6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
Clinton                 46%     43%    45%
Giuliani                44      43     44 


WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Clinton 46% 9% 87% 38% 41% 50% 26% Giuliani 44 84 8 45 50 38 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 5 3 4 4 DK/NA 5 3 3 7 4 7 5

OH Clinton 43% 5% 82% 33% 39% 47% 28% Giuliani 43 88 11 44 46 40 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 8 4 4 4 DK/NA 8 4 5 12 7 8 7

PA Clinton 45% 12% 79% 43% 35% 54% 28% Giuliani 44 82 15 40 52 36 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 6 5 1 2 DK/NA 6 4 4 6 5 7 9



FL OH PA Obama 41% 39% 39% Giuliani 44 42 45

WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Obama 41% 9% 76% 36% 36% 44% 19% Giuliani 44 82 9 47 52 38 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 DK/NA 8 4 8 8 5 11 7

OH Obama 39% 7% 64% 39% 37% 40% 27% Giuliani 42 82 19 35 44 40 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 4 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 5 7 5 5 6 DK/NA 12 8 8 18 11 13 11

PA Obama 39% 8% 67% 38% 33% 44% 22% Giuliani 45 82 20 38 52 38 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 5 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 7 4 3 1 DK/NA 10 7 8 12 7 13 14



3-6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        FL      OH     PA 


Clinton 49% 47% 50% Thompson 40 36 38 WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Clinton 49% 11% 87% 46% 44% 55% 28% Thompson 40 81 7 37 47 32 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 3 3 DK/NA 7 4 4 10 5 9 8

OH Clinton 47% 8% 83% 39% 42% 52% 31% Thompson 36 80 8 36 42 32 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 7 5 4 5 DK/NA 9 6 6 13 8 10 6

PA Clinton 50% 17% 82% 48% 40% 58% 34% Thompson 38 74 10 35 47 29 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 8 6 5 8 7 9 11



FL OH PA

Obama 43% 44% 44% Thompson 37 32 36 WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Obama 43% 11% 73% 42% 40% 45% 22% Thompson 37 75 8 34 42 32 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 3 7 6 4 4 DK/NA 12 9 11 13 9 15 12

OH Obama 44% 14% 69% 41% 40% 47% 30% Thompson 32 69 10 28 36 28 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 5 4 4 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 2 5 8 6 5 6 DK/NA 15 12 11 19 13 17 17

PA Obama 44% 18% 69% 47% 40% 48% 29% Thompson 36 70 13 30 42 29 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 4 3 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 4 3 DK/NA 14 9 12 17 11 17 18



7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?

                        FL      OH     PA 
- Hillary Clinton
Favorable               50%     49%    51%
Unfavorable             42      41     40 
Hvn't hrd enough         5       8      5 
REFUSED                  2       3      3 


- John Edwards Favorable 42% 46% 45% Unfavorable 32 29 29 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 24 REFUSED 3 3 2 - Rudy Giuliani Favorable 53% 48% 54% Unfavorable 26 29 25 Hvn't hrd enough 19 20 17 REFUSED 2 3 3

- Al Gore Favorable 42% 37% 44% Unfavorable 46 50 42 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 10 REFUSED 3 3 3

- John McCain Favorable 34% 33% 37% Unfavorable 39 35 34 Hvn't hrd enough 24 28 25 REFUSED 3 4 3

- Barack Obama Favorable 44% 44% 47% Unfavorable 26 25 23 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 27 REFUSED 3 2 2

- Mitt Romney Favorable 21% 17% 17% Unfavorable 22 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 54 60 63 REFUSED 3 3 1

- Fred Thompson Favorable 33% 27% 28% Unfavorable 17 15 15 Hvn't hrd enough 48 55 55 REFUSED 3 2 2



7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Hillary Clinton       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               50%     14%     85%     47%     44%     56%     32%
Unfavorable             42      79       9      45      49      36      63
Hvn't hrd enough         5       6       5       4       5       6       3
REFUSED                  2       1       1       4       2       3       3


OH Favorable 49% 11% 81% 41% 44% 52% 34% Unfavorable 41 82 8 47 44 38 58 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 8 8 9 7 5 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 2 3

PA Favorable 51% 21% 81% 50% 41% 61% 37% Unfavorable 40 75 13 37 50 32 55 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 REFUSED 3 1 1 7 3 3 3

WtBrnAgn - John Edwards Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Favorable 42% 26% 61% 38% 37% 46% 30% Unfavorable 32 52 13 33 39 24 40 Hvn't hrd enough 24 20 23 25 21 27 26 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 4

OH Favorable 46% 26% 63% 46% 46% 47% 43% Unfavorable 29 54 13 27 35 24 40 Hvn't hrd enough 21 15 21 25 16 25 15 REFUSED 3 5 3 2 3 4 3

PA Favorable 45% 29% 58% 48% 42% 47% 35% Unfavorable 29 49 11 30 37 22 40 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 28 19 18 28 23 REFUSED 2 2 3 3 3 2 2

WtBrnAgn - Rudy Giuliani Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Favorable 53% 79% 27% 58% 57% 48% 64% Unfavorable 26 8 46 26 28 25 15 Hvn't hrd enough 19 11 25 14 12 24 17 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

OH Favorable 48% 73% 30% 48% 45% 51% 52% Unfavorable 29 11 45 26 33 26 27 Hvn't hrd enough 20 14 22 23 20 21 18 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3

PA Favorable 54% 78% 39% 51% 59% 51% 62% Unfavorable 25 6 40 28 26 25 15 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 20 17 12 22 22 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 3 2 1



7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Al Gore               Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               42%     16%     66%     41%     41%     42%     28%
Unfavorable             46      77      20      48      51      42      62
Hvn't hrd enough         9       5      11       8       7      11       8
REFUSED                  3       1       3       4       1       4       2


OH Favorable 37% 10% 59% 35% 37% 37% 20% Unfavorable 50 83 24 53 53 48 72 Hvn't hrd enough 10 6 14 9 8 12 6 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 2 3 1

PA Favorable 44% 21% 68% 43% 40% 48% 33% Unfavorable 42 72 16 43 48 37 56 Hvn't hrd enough 10 6 13 10 8 12 10 REFUSED 3 1 2 4 3 3 2

WtBrnAgn - John McCain Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Favorable 34% 46% 20% 40% 38% 30% 40% Unfavorable 39 32 50 34 42 36 30 Hvn't hrd enough 24 19 28 24 17 31 27 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 3 3 3

OH Favorable 33% 50% 20% 36% 36% 30% 37% Unfavorable 35 28 46 29 38 33 36 Hvn't hrd enough 28 17 31 31 21 34 21 REFUSED 4 6 3 4 4 4 5

PA Favorable 37% 51% 28% 35% 43% 32% 41% Unfavorable 34 23 39 40 36 32 27 Hvn't hrd enough 25 21 31 20 17 33 30 REFUSED 3 4 2 4 4 3 2

WtBrnAgn - Barack Obama Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Favorable 44% 26% 63% 45% 44% 44% 32% Unfavorable 26 46 11 26 30 22 34 Hvn't hrd enough 27 26 24 25 22 31 29 REFUSED 3 3 2 4 3 3 6

OH Favorable 44% 31% 56% 44% 41% 47% 30% Unfavorable 25 44 15 21 29 21 35 Hvn't hrd enough 29 24 28 32 28 29 32 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 3

PA Favorable 47% 29% 62% 49% 43% 51% 35% Unfavorable 23 37 13 21 28 19 28 Hvn't hrd enough 27 32 24 28 27 27 35 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Mitt Romney           Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               21%     37%      8%     21%     26%     16%     26%
Unfavorable             22      14      31      21      24      19      16
Hvn't hrd enough        54      47      58      54      47      61      55
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       3       3


OH Favorable 17% 29% 9% 18% 19% 15% 21% Unfavorable 21 14 27 16 24 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 60 54 61 64 54 65 57 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 3 2 2

PA Favorable 17% 29% 8% 16% 22% 12% 18% Unfavorable 19 10 24 20 20 17 11 Hvn't hrd enough 63 60 67 62 56 70 70 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1

WtBrnAgn - Fred Thompson Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Favorable 33% 55% 13% 35% 43% 23% 45% Unfavorable 17 5 30 15 16 17 8 Hvn't hrd enough 48 38 55 47 39 56 45 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 2

OH Favorable 27% 47% 13% 28% 31% 23% 32% Unfavorable 15 6 22 15 17 14 13 Hvn't hrd enough 55 45 62 56 50 60 53 REFUSED 2 2 3 1 2 2 2

PA Favorable 28% 46% 14% 30% 35% 22% 28% Unfavorable 15 5 24 14 17 14 8 Hvn't hrd enough 55 48 61 54 46 63 64 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 1



15. If a presidential candidate is supported by - abortion rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             20%     19%    18%
Less likely             32      31     30 
Doesn't make a diff     46      47     48 
DK/NA                    3       3      4 


WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 20% 13% 27% 21% 18% 22% 13% Less likely 32 45 24 26 32 31 49 Doesn't make a diff 46 39 46 51 46 45 35 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 3 3 3

OH More likely 19% 10% 25% 18% 19% 18% 12% Less likely 31 52 24 27 31 32 51 Doesn't make a diff 47 35 47 52 49 45 32 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 1 5 5

PA More likely 18% 9% 26% 20% 15% 21% 11% Less likely 30 45 23 22 29 31 52 Doesn't make a diff 48 44 47 55 52 45 33 DK/NA 4 2 4 3 4 4 4



16. If a presidential candidate is supported by - business groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             15%     15%    12%
Less likely             24      23     26 
Doesn't make a diff     56      56     57 
DK/NA                    5       6      5 


WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 15% 22% 10% 12% 17% 14% 19% Less likely 24 16 27 28 25 23 21 Doesn't make a diff 56 58 56 56 53 58 55 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 5 5 5

OH More likely 15% 21% 14% 14% 17% 14% 19% Less likely 23 13 28 24 26 19 19 Doesn't make a diff 56 58 53 55 52 60 53 DK/NA 6 7 5 7 5 7 9

PA More likely 12% 20% 10% 8% 13% 12% 12% Less likely 26 15 27 38 30 22 22 Doesn't make a diff 57 61 57 51 54 59 60 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 4 6 6



17. If a presidential candidate is supported by - conservative Christian groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             24%     29%    25%
Less likely             28      23     26 
Doesn't make a diff     46      45     46 
DK/NA                    2       3      3 


WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 24% 42% 17% 14% 21% 26% 51% Less likely 28 13 41 30 29 28 7 Doesn't make a diff 46 44 39 55 47 44 39 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 2 2 3

OH More likely 29% 51% 21% 24% 29% 30% 54% Less likely 23 9 30 26 25 20 9 Doesn't make a diff 45 37 45 47 43 47 33 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 3 3 4

PA More likely 25% 40% 19% 18% 24% 27% 56% Less likely 26 10 35 34 31 22 9 Doesn't make a diff 46 46 44 47 42 49 33 DK/NA 3 3 2 1 3 2 2



18. If a presidential candidate is supported by - gay rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 


More likely 10% 10% 11% Less likely 28 34 28 Doesn't make a diff 60 54 59 DK/NA 2 2 2

WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 10% 3% 18% 9% 10% 10% 5% Less likely 28 46 21 18 33 23 47 Doesn't make a diff 60 50 58 72 55 65 46 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 2 2

OH More likely 10% 2% 13% 12% 8% 11% 4% Less likely 34 57 26 28 41 29 58 Doesn't make a diff 54 39 60 57 50 58 35 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 2 2

PA More likely 11% 3% 16% 14% 8% 13% 5% Less likely 28 45 18 19 32 23 52 Doesn't make a diff 59 51 63 65 57 61 42 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 3 2 1



19. If a presidential candidate is supported by - gun rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             20%     24%    27%
Less likely             31      24     29 
Doesn't make a diff     46      49     42 
DK/NA                    4       4      2 


WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 20% 33% 9% 21% 28% 13% 33% Less likely 31 18 46 27 25 36 18 Doesn't make a diff 46 48 40 51 44 48 46 DK/NA 4 1 6 1 3 4 4

OH More likely 24% 37% 17% 20% 33% 16% 36% Less likely 24 10 33 23 17 29 13 Doesn't make a diff 49 50 45 54 48 50 47 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 2 5 4

PA More likely 27% 43% 19% 21% 35% 20% 38% Less likely 29 12 39 34 22 35 20 Doesn't make a diff 42 42 39 45 41 43 39 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 2 3



20. If a presidential candidate is supported by - labor groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        FL      OH     PA 


More likely 26% 36% 35% Less likely 20 15 15 Doesn't make a diff 51 44 46 DK/NA 3 5 4

WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL More likely 26% 14% 40% 25% 25% 28% 19% Less likely 20 36 8 17 23 16 26 Doesn't make a diff 51 48 49 56 50 52 50 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 4 4

OH More likely 36% 21% 52% 33% 37% 35% 38% Less likely 15 28 7 13 17 14 19 Doesn't make a diff 44 44 36 51 43 45 34 DK/NA 5 7 4 3 3 6 8

PA More likely 35% 22% 49% 35% 37% 34% 29% Less likely 15 29 5 11 18 12 23 Doesn't make a diff 46 43 44 51 41 50 42 DK/NA 4 6 3 3 4 4 6



21. Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions, but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships?

                        FL      OH     PA  


Marry 27% 23% 26% Civil unions 29 29 32 No recognition 35 37 33 DK/NA 9 11 9 WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Marry 27% 11% 36% 35% 25% 30% 13% Civil unions 29 33 24 32 27 31 22 No recognition 35 50 29 25 39 31 59 DK/NA 9 6 12 8 9 9 6

OH Marry 23% 9% 31% 27% 20% 25% 10% Civil unions 29 30 25 31 25 32 24 No recognition 37 54 31 32 43 32 60 DK/NA 11 8 13 10 12 11 6

PA Marry 26% 10% 33% 34% 21% 30% 8% Civil unions 32 35 29 33 31 33 30 No recognition 33 48 25 26 37 29 53 DK/NA 9 6 13 7 11 8 9



22. In general, do you personally believe that homosexual behavior is morally acceptable or morally wrong?

                        FL      OH     PA 


Acceptable 35% 30% 34% Wrong 51 55 53 DK/NA 14 15 13

WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl FL Acceptable 35% 20% 44% 43% 28% 41% 15% Wrong 51 69 42 40 58 44 73 DK/NA 14 11 14 17 13 15 11

OH Acceptable 30% 17% 34% 36% 24% 35% 13% Wrong 55 74 49 49 63 49 80 DK/NA 15 8 17 15 13 16 7

PA Acceptable 34% 16% 44% 43% 31% 36% 13% Wrong 53 73 42 44 57 49 77 DK/NA 13 12 14 13 12 15 9