February 14, 2008 - Clinton Leads Among Ohio, Pennsylvania Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; November Matchups Remain Close --- FLORIDA: McCain 44 - Clinton 42; McCain 41 - Obama 39; OHIO Democrats: Clinton 55 - Obama 34; PENNSYLVANIA Democrats: Clinton 52 - Obama 36;

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New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has commanding leads, especially among women, over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Democratic primary voters in the critical swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964. In these two states and Florida, a swing state that already conducted a primary, Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner, is running neck and neck with either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama. Results are:
  • Florida: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 42 percent; McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent;
  • Ohio: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 43 percent; McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 percent - McCain 40 percent; Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent.
Clinton leads Obama 55 - 34 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio and 52 - 36 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. These are the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll's first surveys in this election cycle of Ohio and Pennsylvania likely voters, a more select group than the wider range of registered voters surveyed in prior polls.

In each state, voters see the economy, not the war in Iraq, as the most important issue.

"Despite her losing streak, Sen. Clinton remains far ahead of Sen. Obama among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But in some of the earlier contests Obama has closed similar gaps and gone on to win. With Ohio the next big state, along with Texas, voting on March 4, Clinton must fend off another last-minute Obama surge in the Buckeye State," Brown added.

"Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find. It is blue-collar America, with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African- Americans than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day," said Brown. "If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama."

Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men back her 52 - 42 percent. Clinton leads 64 - 28 percent among white Democrats, while Obama leads 64 - 17 percent among black voters.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 34 percent with women, 49 - 39 percent with men and 58 - 31 percent among whites. Obama leads 71 - 10 percent among black Democrats.

"With Sen. Obama closing the gap, the winner in Pennsylvania probably will depend on whether blacks, young people and college graduates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can turn out in sufficient strength to overcome Sen. Clinton's strong lead among blue collar voters and women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The survey found that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gets only 6 to 9 percent running as an independent in any of the three states, and he seems to hurt McCain the most.

"If Mayor Bloomberg is thinking about running as an independent because he thinks he can win, he ought to think again," said Brown.

Florida

In a general election matchup, McCain edges Clinton 44 - 42 percent among registered voters and gets 41 percent to Obama's 39 percent.

If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs as an independent candidate, results are:
  • Clinton at 40 percent to McCain's 38 percent, with 7 percent for Bloomberg;
  • McCain with 37 percent to Obama's 35 percent and 9 percent for Bloomberg.
In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 33 percent of Florida voters list the economy as the biggest single factor in their presidential vote, with 14 percent for the war in Iraq and 12 percent for healthcare.

Florida voters disapprove 61 - 31 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, but disagree 68 - 23 percent with the statement: "I am so angry at President Bush that I will not vote for Republican John McCain for President this November."

"Florida is perhaps the most conservative of the big three swing states, but even there Sen. McCain is getting about 80 percent of Republicans, indicating that this problem with conservative voters might not be as great as his problem with conservative leaders," Brown said. Ohio

McCain gets 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent in the general election and edges Obama 42 - 40 percent.

With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton and McCain tie at 40 percent each, with 6 percent for Bloomberg; McCain gets 39 percent to Obama's 38 percent with 6 percent for Bloomberg.

Among Ohio voters, 32 percent list the economy as the most important issue in the campaign, with 16 percent listing Iraq and 14 percent citing healthcare.

Ohio voters disapprove 61 - 31 percent of the job President Bush is doing, but only 23 percent say they will take their anger out on McCain. Pennsylvania

Clinton leads McCain 46 - 40 percent in the general election, while Obama has 42 percent to McCain's 41 percent.

In a three-way race with Bloomberg, Clinton leads McCain 42 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Bloomberg; McCain and Obama are tied at 38 percent each, with 7 percent for Bloomberg.

The economy is the most important election issue for 27 percent of Pennsylvania voters, followed by Iraq at 19 percent and healthcare at 14 percent.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 64 - 30 percent of the job President Bush is doing, but only 21 percent say they are so angry at Bush that they will vote against McCain.

From February 6 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,009 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent;
  • 1,748 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent, including 564 Democratic likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent;
  • 1,419 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent, including 577 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.


1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...................
                                                                Wht     Wht
OH ... .................Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 55%     52%     56%     64%     17%     60%     66%
Obama                   34      42      30      28      64      34      24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       2       -       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    9       5      12       7      19       4       8
 
                        Age     Age     No col College
                        18-44   45+     degree degree
 
Clinton                 46%     58%     58%     46%
Obama                   42      31      32      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -
DK/NA                   10       9       8      12
 
                                                                Wht     Wht
PA .....................Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 52%     49%     54%     58%     10%     52%     62%
Obama                   36      39      34      31      71      36      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       3       1       2       -       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                   11      10      12       9      19       8      10
 
                        Age     Age     No col College
                        18-44   45+     degree degree
 
Clinton                 52%     51%     57%     40%
Obama                   41      34      28      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    7      12      13       6
 
 
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 42%      7%     75%     36%     40%     42%
McCain                  44      81      14      44      46      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       1       6       3       4
DK/NA                    9       6       9      12       9       9
 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 43%      6%     87%     33%     34%     50%
McCain                  44      81       7      48      51      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       1       5       5       1
DK/NA                    8       6       4      12       7       9
 
PA .....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 46%      8%     84%     35%     36%     54%
McCain                  40      78       9      42      48      33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1       3       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       5       1       5       5       2
DK/NA                    9       7       5      15       8       9
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   39%     10%     63%     38%     40%     38%
McCain                  41      77      14      40      44      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       4       5       2       3       5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       5       3       5
DK/NA                   12       7      13      14      10      13
 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   40%      8%     77%     33%     33%     46%
McCain                  42      77      12      42      47      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       1       4       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       5       6       7       3
DK/NA                   10      10       5      13      10      11
 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   42%     12%     69%     41%     38%     46%
McCain                  41      70      19      40      47      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       1       -       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       4       5       4       3
DK/NA                   11      12       7      14      10      12
 
 
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, John McCain the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote?
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 40%      7%     73%     33%     42%     39%
McCain                  38      73      13      35      37      39
Bloomberg                7       7       2      13       6       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       4       1       2       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       2       4       2       3
DK/NA                   10       8       9      13      10      10
 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 40%      6%     84%     29%     33%     47%
McCain                  40      77       7      38      45      36
Bloomberg                6       6       2      12       7       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       -       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       1       6       5       2
DK/NA                    9       7       5      13       8      10
 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Clinton                 42%      8%     81%     27%     31%     52%
McCain                  36      70       8      36      44      29
Bloomberg                7       7       3      13      11       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       3       1       4       3       2
DK/NA                   12      12       6      19      10      13
 
 
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat, John McCain the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent candidate for whom would you vote?
FL......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   35%      8%     61%     31%     37%     34%
McCain                  37      70      12      35      39      37
Bloomberg                9       8       5      15       6      11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       4       4       -       4       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                   13       8      14      15      11      14
 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   38%      8%     74%     31%     32%     43%
McCain                  39      75      10      37      43      36
Bloomberg                6       5       4      10       7       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       -       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       3       6       6       4
DK/NA                   11       7       8      14      10      11
 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Obama                   38%     11%     64%     33%     34%     42%
McCain                  38      65      17      36      41      35
Bloomberg                7       8       4      10      10       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       5       4       4       4
DK/NA                   13      12       9      16      11      14
 
 
6. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your vote for president?
                                   FL      OH      PA
 
Abortion                           1%      3%      1%
 
Budget Total                       2%      1%      -
 Budget deficits                   1       -       -
 Gov too big/Gov spending          1       -       -
 Budget general                    -       1       -
 
Economy Total                     33%     32%     27%
 Economy general                  27      22      22
 Unemployment/jobs                 2       6       2
 Cost of living                    2       2       1
 Business leaving/Outsourcing      2       2       1
 Stock Market                      -       -       1
 
Education Total                    1%      1%      3%
 Education general                 1       1       2
 Teachers                          -       -       1
 
Energy Total                       -       1%      1%
 Energy general                    -       1       -
 Gas prices                        -       -       1
 
Environment/Pollution              1%      -       -
 
Ethics/Values/Morality Total       1%      1%      -
 Lack of ethics                    -       1       -
 Lack of religion                  1       -       -
 
Foreign affairs/policy general     1%      1%      1%
 
Healthcare Total                  12%     14%     14%
 Healthcare/Costs/Ins/HMO's       11      13      14
 Medicare                          1       1       -
 
Hurricanes                         1%      -       -
Immigration                        6%      3%      4%
 
Politicians Total                  3%      3%      2%
 Political corruption              1       1       -
 Bush administration               1       1       1
 Politicians/Campaigns other       1       1       1
 
Senior issues                      1%      1%      1%
Social security                    1%      -       1%
 
Taxes Total                        4%      2%      3%
 Taxes general                     2       2       3
 Property tax                      1       -       -
 Gas tax                           1       -       -
 
Terrorism Total                    6%      4%      5%
 Terrorism general                 2       1       2
 Security/Safety                   4       3       3
 
War (Iraq)                        14%     16%     19%
Other                              7%      8%      9%
DK/NA                              4%      9%      9%
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
FL .....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Approve                 31%     67%     11%     19%     34%     29%
Disapprove              61      23      82      76      56      65
DK/NA                    8      10       6       5      10       6
 
OH......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Approve                 31%     64%      5%     27%     37%     27%
Disapprove              61      25      91      68      57      65
DK/NA                    7      11       4       5       7       8
 
PA......................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Approve                 30%     60%      4%     30%     35%     25%
Disapprove              64      32      93      63      60      69
DK/NA                    6       8       3       7       5       6
 
 
8. Does President Bush's job performance make you more likely to vote for Republican John McCain for President this November, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference?
FL .....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
More likely             11%     22%      5%      4%      9%     12%
Less likely             28       5      42      35      29      27
Doesn't make diff       58      70      47      59      59      57
DK/NA                    4       3       6       1       4       4
 
OH .....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
More likely              9%     18%      3%      5%     10%      8%
Less likely             24       5      46      22      20      28
Doesn't make diff       63      75      46      69      66      61
DK/NA                    4       2       4       4       4       4
 
PA  ....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
More likely              8%     15%      3%      6%      8%      8%
Less likely             28       6      48      25      25      30
Doesn't make diff       61      76      45      68      64      59
DK/NA                    3       2       4       1       2       3
 
 
9. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "I am so angry at President Bush that I will not vote for Republican John McCain for president this November"?
FL .....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Agree                   23%      2%     41%     22%     24%     22%
Disagree                68      96      42      71      68      67
DK/NA                    9       1      18       7       8      11
 
OH  ....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Agree                   23%      3%     47%     19%     20%     25%
Disagree                72      95      46      77      75      70
DK/NA                    5       2       7       4       5       5
 
PA  ....................Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom
 
Agree                   21%      4%     40%     16%     18%     25%
Disagree                74      93      53      82      79      70
DK/NA                    4       2       7       2       4       5