June 18, 2008 - Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems --- FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43; OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40

Word format

With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
  • Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
  • Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."

While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are:
  • Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent;
  • Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent.
"If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider. The people who really matter come November - independent voters - turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket," Brown added.

"One in five voters say McCain's age is a reason to vote against him. But overwhelmingly they don't see Obama's race as a factor at all - indicating that Americans are either much less concerned with race, or just don't want to tell callers what they really think on the subject."

President Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 27 - 66 percent in Florida;
  • 22 - 71 percent in Ohio;
  • 24 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Fifty to 58 percent of voters in each state list the economy as the most important issue in deciding how they will vote.

By almost 2 - 1 margins in each state, voters say going to war in Iraq was wrong. But they split between Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops under a fixed timetable and McCain's plan to keep troops there until the situation stabilizes and then withdraw without a set schedule.

"The only good news for McCain in these numbers is that despite voters' views on the war, he is holding his own with them about where to go from here," said Brown.

Florida

Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

Thirteen percent of those who voted for President Bush in 2004 now support Obama. And 19 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain.

Obama gets a 48 - 33 percent favorability rating, with 47 - 35 percent for McCain.

While 23 percent of Florida voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age, 73 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote 88 percent say.

A total of 86 percent of Florida likely voters say the vice presidential candidate is "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote. Looking at native sons, voters say:
  • 15 - 8 percent that they would be less likely to vote Democratic if Sen. Bill Nelson is on the ticket, with 69 percent who say it won't affect their vote;
  • 21 - 16 percent that they would be less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Charlie Crist is the vice presidential candidate, while 58 percent say it won't make a difference.
"Picking a Floridian for vice president apparently won't help either nominee carry the state's 27 electoral votes," said Brown.

Ohio

Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.

Again, 13 percent of those who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 25 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain.

Voters give Obama a 52 - 29 percent favorability, with 46 - 33 percent for McCain.

Because of his age, 22 percent of Ohio voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say.

While 85 percent of Ohio voters say the vice presidential selection is "very important" or "somewhat important" to their votes, native sons do not fare well. Voters say:
  • 17 - 11 percent that they are less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ted Strickland is the running mate, while 68 percent say it won't make a difference;
  • 10 - 5 percent that they are less likely to vote Republican if Sen. Rob Portman is the vice presidential candidate, while 78 percent say it won't make a difference.
"Although he still trails among white working-class voters, Sen. Obama is within hailing distance among them and doing well enough that if he keeps the same level of support through November he's likely to carry Ohio," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent.

Obama gets a 54 - 25 percent favorability, to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.

Nineteen percent of the people who voted for Bush in 2004 now back Obama, while 24 percent of the voters who supported Clinton in the primaries now back McCain.

McCain's age will not affect their vote, 73 percent say, while 24 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race will not affect their vote, 88 percent say.

A total of 87 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say the vice presidential candidate is "very important" or "somewhat" important in their November vote. But looking at some choices, voters say:
  • 25 - 16 percent that they would be less likely to vote Democratic if Gov. Ed Rendell is on the ticket, while 56 percent say it won't make a difference;
  • Split 18 - 18 percent on whether they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he is running with Tom Ridge, while 62 percent say it doesn't make a difference.
"Pennsylvania continues to be the most Democratic of the three states, the state where Sen. Barack Obama does best overall and the only state where he leads, however slightly, among white voters," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The long spring primary season appears to have hardened the battle lines, with more than 75 percent of the voters in each state saying they have made up their minds on how they will vote in the Fall."

From June 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,453 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,396 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,511 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
FLORIDA              LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                47%    11%    82%    47%    44%    50%    40%    95%    52%
McCain               43     85     12     37     47     40     50      4     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      1      2      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      6     12      7      8      9      1      5
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4  North/
                     War    Econ   PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Obama                61%    55%    35%    51%    39%    48%    61%
McCain               32     36     56     38     52     42     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      3      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      8      6      8      7     10      8
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                57%    48%    44%    38%    44%    38%    41%    22%    38%
McCain               35     46     46     50     48     52     48     66     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      1      1      2      2      2      2      4      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      5      9     10      6      8     10      8      9
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2008..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    82%     9%    81%    71%    97%     8%    66%
McCain               80      9     87     14     19      3     87     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      2      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      3      4      7      1      4      8
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED VOTERS.....................................
                        Jun 18  May 22  May 1   Apr 2   Feb 14  Oct 25  Oct 10
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007
 
Obama                   42      41      43      37      39      42      39
McCain                  39      45      44      46      41      42      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       1       3       4       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       4       4       6       4       5       6
DK/NA                   14       8       8       9      12       9      11
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
OHIO                 LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                48%     7%    80%    43%    45%    51%    44%    90%    52%
McCain               42     87     13     45     46     39     47      6     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      1      2      2      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      5     11      7      8      8      4      8
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4
                     War    Econ   Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Obama                48%    55%    46%    53%    48%    39%    49%    44%
McCain               40     37     45     36     40     54     46     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      1      3      2      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      7      6      9     11      7      4      5
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                58%    49%    43%    43%    45%    42%    46%    35%    45%
McCain               36     42     47     46     50     49     44     55     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      2      3      1      2      2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6      8      8      5      7      8      7      7
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2008..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    78%     9%    75%    63%    89%     8%    65%
McCain               80     13     85     16     25      8     85     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      2      3      3      -      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6      4      6      9      3      7      7
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED VOTERS.....................................
                        Jun 18  May 22  May 1   Apr 2   Feb 14  Oct 10  Sep 6
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007
 
Obama                   42      40      42      43      40      43      41
McCain                  38      44      43      42      42      39      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2       2       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       5       5       5       5       4       5
DK/NA                   15       9       8       8      10      10      10
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
PENNSYLVANIA         LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                52%    16%    78%    50%    45%    57%    47%    95%    51%
McCain               40     79     14     39     47     34     44      1     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      2      2      1      2      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      6      8      6      8      7      4      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4
                     War    Econ   Algny  Phily  NEast  SEast  NWest  SWest  Cntrl
 
Obama                59%    56%    51%    77%    46%    54%    45%    46%    46%
McCain               30     37     40     18     42     39     46     44     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      3      -      2      1      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      6      6      5     10      7      8      7      6
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                61%    51%    48%    47%    48%    41%    53%    34%    45%
McCain               33     41     43     44     45     51     38     58     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      2      1      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      8      7      5      6      7      7      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2008..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ14
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                19%    83%    18%    73%    66%    93%    12%    66%
McCain               74     11     77     18     24      5     81     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      4      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      5      7      7      1      6      6
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED VOTERS.....................................
                        Jun 18  May 22  May 1   Apr 2   Feb 27  Feb 14  Oct 10
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2007
 
Obama                   45      46      47      43      42      42      45
McCain                  36      40      38      39      40      41      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2       2       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       5       4       4       4       4       4
DK/NA                   14       8       9      11      12      11       8
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              79%    79%    79%
Might change         19     19     19
DK/NA                 2      2      3
 
OH                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              77%    81%    73%
Might change         21     18     24
DK/NA                 2      1      3
 
PA                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              75%    75%    74%
Might change         24     24     24
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            48%    21%    75%    47%    45%    51%    41%    83%    50%
Unfavorable          33     61     11     29     38     27     38      5     28
Hvn't hrd enough     15     15     11     21     13     18     16      9     19
REFUSED               4      3      3      3      3      4      4      3      2
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            52%    23%    74%    49%    51%    53%    48%    87%    54%
Unfavorable          29     58     12     25     34     24     32      3     27
Hvn't hrd enough     16     15     11     22     14     18     17     11     15
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      2      4      3      -      3
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            54%    29%    70%    55%    48%    59%    50%    92%    52%
Unfavorable          25     47     12     23     32     20     27      2     24
Hvn't hrd enough     18     21     15     21     18     18     20      4     23
REFUSED               3      3      3      2      2      3      3      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            47%    78%    24%    41%    52%    42%    52%    10%    46%
Unfavorable          35     11     56     39     36     35     32     63     40
Hvn't hrd enough     13      9     15     16      8     18     12     20     12
REFUSED               4      2      5      4      4      5      4      7      3
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            46%    74%    29%    45%    51%    41%    50%    18%    42%
Unfavorable          33     12     50     29     33     34     31     57     39
Hvn't hrd enough     18     13     18     22     14     22     17     24     16
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      2      3      3      1      3
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            43%    70%    22%    46%    48%    38%    45%    18%    37%
Unfavorable          33     10     53     28     30     36     31     53     37
Hvn't hrd enough     21     17     22     24     18     23     21     27     24
REFUSED               3      3      3      2      3      3      2      2      1
 
 
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             9%    20%     3%     7%    11%     8%    10%     6%     8%
The war in Iraq      18     14     22     20     19     17     19     17     19
The economy          53     42     60     55     51     55     52     61     60
Illegal immigration   5      9      1      6      5      5      6      -      5
Health care           7      4     11      5      6      8      6      8      2
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      7      2      2      4      4      3      4      4
DK/NA                 3      3      1      4      3      3      3      5      3
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             6%    14%     1%     5%     6%     5%     6%     -      4%
The war in Iraq      16     13     18     16     15     16     17     10     15
The economy          58     52     62     60     57     59     56     73     61
Illegal immigration   3      6      1      2      4      2      3      -      3
Health care          12      9     15      9     11     12     11     16     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      2      1      4      3      3      3      -      2
DK/NA                 4      5      2      4      4      3      4      1      4
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    13%     4%     7%     9%     6%     8%     4%     7%
The war in Iraq      20     17     21     21     18     22     20     17     19
The economy          50     49     54     48     52     49     51     49     54
Illegal immigration   4      7      1      6      6      3      4      -      4
Health care          12      9     16     10      9     14     11     28     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      4      2      5      3      4      3      3      4
DK/NA                 2      1      2      3      3      2      2      -      2
 
 
5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           3%     5%     2%     3%     4%     2%     3%     1%     1%
Less likely          23      7     36     25     23     22     21     36     24
Doesn't make diff    73     87     61     71     72     74     75     62     75
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     3%     1%     2%     2%     1%     2%     -      1%
Less likely          22      7     34     20     21     23     20     38     26
Doesn't make diff    75     90     65     77     76     74     77     62     71
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     4%     -      1%     2%     1%     2%     -      1%
Less likely          24     10     34     23     19     28     22     42     24
Doesn't make diff    73     85     64     76     78     69     75     56     74
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      1      2      1      2      -
 
 
6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     2%     9%     5%     5%     5%     3%    16%     4%
Less likely           5      9      3      3      5      5      6      -      4
Doesn't make diff    88     88     87     90     88     89     90     84     92
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      2      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     1%     7%     4%     6%     3%     3%    16%     5%
Less likely           6      8      5      5      6      5      6      -      9
Doesn't make diff    89     90     87     91     87     90     90     84     85
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     -     11%     2%     5%     5%     3%    31%     4%
Less likely           5      6      5      3      6      3      5      1      6
Doesn't make diff    88     92     82     95     86     90     90     68     88
DK/NA                 2      2      2      -      2      1      2      -      2
 
 
7. In deciding your vote for president how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very important       49%    43%    57%    44%    41%    56%    46%    58%    55%
Smwht important      37     40     31     43     39     35     40     33     33
Not too important     9     11      8      8     13      5     10      7      7
Not important at all  4      4      3      5      6      2      3      2      4
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very important       46%    45%    49%    44%    41%    50%    44%    55%    45%
Smwht important      39     41     37     40     39     39     40     37     42
Not too important    11     12     11      9     14      7     11      5     10
Not important at all  4      2      3      5      5      2      4      3      2
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very important       46%    42%    52%    41%    41%    51%    45%    57%    42%
Smwht important      41     46     38     40     41     41     42     35     47
Not too important    10      9      8     14     13      7     10      3      8
Not important at all  3      3      2      5      5      1      3      4      3
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-Presidential running mate or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  37%    17%    57%    37%    29%    44%    33%    50%    45%
No                   45     59     33     46     52     39     49     38     37
DK/NA                17     24     10     17     18     17     19     11     18
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  40%    19%    58%    31%    34%    45%    38%    53%    43%
No                   43     60     31     47     48     37     43     38     39
DK/NA                18     21     11     22     18     18     19      9     18
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  41%    20%    60%    36%    35%    47%    40%    52%    44%
No                   45     63     31     49     50     41     46     36     46
DK/NA                14     17     10     15     15     13     14     11     10
 
 
9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          21%     7%    34%    22%    14%    27%    20%    18%    28%
Less likely          19     36      5     18     24     14     22      2     15
Doesn't make diff    56     52     60     56     57     55     55     77     55
DK/NA                 4      5      2      5      5      4      4      4      2
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          23%     7%    37%    15%    19%    26%    22%    29%    22%
Less likely          20     41      5     25     25     16     22      7     21
Doesn't make diff    55     50     56     58     55     55     54     63     55
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      1      4      2      1      3
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          25%     9%    39%    21%    18%    31%    24%    30%    31%
Less likely          21     40      5     27     23     19     23      4     16
Doesn't make diff    52     49     54     51     57     47     50     66     50
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      2      -      3
 
 
10. If Barack Obama chooses (Bill Nelson, Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell) to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL - Bill Nelson     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           8%     6%    11%     9%     9%     8%     9%     5%     8%
Less likely          15     12     16     17     15     14     14     11     13
Doesn't make diff    69     75     66     67     71     68     70     80     70
DK/NA                 7      7      7      6      5     10      6      4      9
 
                                                                             Union
OH - Ted Strickland  Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          11%     9%    12%    13%    12%    10%    12%     3%    12%
Less likely          17     18     16     18     19     15     16     16     16
Doesn't make diff    68     70     69     64     68     69     68     78     69
DK/NA                 4      3      3      5      1      6      4      3      3
 
                                                                             Union
PA - Ed Rendell      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          16%    12%    19%    16%    15%    16%    15%    18%    16%
Less likely          25     36     19     25     27     24     27     19     25
Doesn't make diff    56     49     61     56     56     56     56     61     57
DK/NA                 3      2      2      3      2      3      3      3      1
 
 
11. If John McCain chooses (Charlie Crist, Rob Portman, Tom Ridge) to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL - Charlie Crist   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          16%    26%     9%    15%    17%    15%    19%     5%    19%
Less likely          21     14     24     22     22     20     20     25     20
Doesn't make diff    58     55     62     60     56     61     58     67     58
DK/NA                 5      5      4      3      5      4      4      2      3
 
                                                                             Union
OH - Rob Portman     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%    12%     2%     4%     7%     3%     5%     3%     6%
Less likely          10      6     13      9     11      9     10     12     12
Doesn't make diff    78     73     80     79     77     80     78     83     76
DK/NA                 7      8      5      7      5      8      7      2      6
 
                                                                             Union
PA - Tom Ridge       Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          18%    37%     7%    15%    20%    16%    19%     2%    18%
Less likely          18      8     25     20     19     18     17     27     20
Doesn't make diff    62     53     65     63     60     63     62     64     61
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      2      3      2      7      -
 
 
12. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  40%    26%    55%    38%    36%    44%    37%    50%    50%
No                   42     58     29     43     47     38     46     32     32
DK/NA                18     16     17     20     17     18     17     18     18
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  44%    30%    57%    40%    44%    44%    42%    60%    44%
No                   40     52     29     44     42     37     41     31     44
DK/NA                16     18     13     15     14     19     17     10     11
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  47%    38%    58%    42%    42%    51%    46%    49%    54%
No                   39     52     27     44     47     33     41     31     38
DK/NA                14     10     15     14     11     16     13     20      8
 
 
13. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  43%    62%    28%    41%    48%    38%    47%    38%    43%
No                   48     26     66     49     41     54     45     54     50
DK/NA                 9     12      6     10     11      8      8      8      7
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  38%    63%    25%    36%    39%    37%    39%    32%    34%
No                   56     29     70     58     56     56     55     62     61
DK/NA                 7      8      5      6      5      8      7      6      5
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  42%    62%    28%    42%    46%    38%    42%    42%    35%
No                   53     33     68     53     50     56     53     58     62
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      5      5      5      1      3
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              27%    60%     6%    17%    31%    24%    30%    12%    29%
Disapprove           66     33     91     75     62     70     64     79     66
DK/NA                 6      8      3      8      7      6      6      9      5
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              22%    57%     4%    18%    23%    21%    24%     5%    16%
Disapprove           71     34     93     72     71     71     69     93     76
DK/NA                 7      9      3      9      6      8      7      1      8
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              24%    52%     6%    19%    26%    21%    25%     3%    18%
Disapprove           72     41     92     75     69     74     70     97     77
DK/NA                 5      6      2      7      5      5      5      -      5
 
 
15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        2%     5%     1%     1%     3%     1%     2%     -      1%
Smwht satisfied      15     30      4     12     17     14     17      6     15
Smwht dissatisfied   26     42     17     21     27     26     28     22     23
Very dissatisfied    55     22     78     64     51     59     53     72     61
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      2      -      1      -      -
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        2%     5%     1%     1%     3%     2%     2%     -      1%
Smwht satisfied      15     36      3     12     17     13     16      3      8
Smwht dissatisfied   25     35     16     28     23     27     26     20     25
Very dissatisfied    57     24     79     58     56     58     55     77     65
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     2%     1%     1%     1%     1%     1%     -      1%
Smwht satisfied      15     34      5     11     17     14     16      2     13
Smwht dissatisfied   27     36     18     34     29     25     29     10     24
Very dissatisfied    56     26     77     54     53     59     53     88     62
DK/NA                 -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          34%    71%     7%    27%    39%    29%    38%    11%    31%
Wrong thing          59     21     89     64     53     63     54     86     65
DK/NA                 8      8      4      9      8      7      8      4      4
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          33%    70%     9%    35%    37%    29%    34%    16%    28%
Wrong thing          60     21     88     55     57     63     58     84     65
DK/NA                 7     10      3     11      6      8      8      -      7
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          32%    63%    13%    26%    39%    26%    35%     6%    37%
Wrong thing          62     30     82     67     56     67     59     93     60
DK/NA                 6      6      5      8      5      7      6      1      3
 
 
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (Option order rotated)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    46%    19%    66%    52%    40%    51%    41%    68%    54%
B. Stay until stable/
No fixed dates       48     74     29     42     54     42     53     28     42
DK/NA                 7      7      4      6      6      7      6      4      3
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    42%    21%    60%    36%    36%    47%    40%    65%    46%
B. Stay until stable/
No fixed dates       53     77     35     57     59     47     55     34     49
DK/NA                 6      2      6      7      5      6      5      1      5
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    49%    21%    69%    48%    41%    55%    46%    78%    50%
B. Stay until stable/
No fixed dates       47     75     27     47     54     40     50     21     44
DK/NA                 5      4      4      5      5      5      5      2      6
 
 
18. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        13%    16%    10%    12%    17%     9%    12%    17%    15%
Falling behind       24     11     30     30     20     27     23     24     19
Holding steady       61     70     58     56     59     62     64     55     66
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2      3      1      1      4      -
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        12%    17%    10%     8%    14%    10%    12%     7%    11%
Falling behind       28     12     37     29     26     30     26     41     29
Holding steady       60     70     53     62     60     60     62     51     59
DK/NA                 1      -      -      -      1      1      1      -      -
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        12%    16%    10%     8%    13%    11%    12%    13%     8%
Falling behind       25     18     29     30     23     28     25     35     28
Holding steady       61     65     60     61     64     60     62     51     63
DK/NA                 1      1      1      2      1      2      1      2      1
 
 
19. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A. Declining retirement fund values B. Declining real estate values C. Rising health care costs D. Rising gasoline prices E. Rising food prices
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   7%     8%     6%     8%     6%     8%     9%     6%     7%
B. Real estate val    9     11      7     12     12      8     10      9      9
C. Health care cost  15     12     19     12     13     16     16     14      9
D. Gasoline prices   48     52     43     51     51     46     48     45     59
E. Food prices       13     12     17     10     11     15     11     14     11
DK/NA                 7      5      7      8      7      8      7     12      5
 
                                                                             Union
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   9%     8%     9%    11%     9%    10%     9%     9%    11%
B. Real estate val    6      6      6      4      7      4      5      8      5
C. Health care cost  18     15     21     17     19     18     19     19     19
D. Gasoline prices   50     55     49     46     49     51     50     42     51
E. Food prices       12     10     12     15     11     13     12     17     10
DK/NA                 5      6      3      6      6      4      5      5      4
 
                                                                             Union
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   9%    10%     7%    10%     9%     8%    10%     1%     9%
B. Real estate val    4      4      4      3      3      4      4      5      2
C. Health care cost  18     15     19     19     16     19     17     25     14
D. Gasoline prices   52     56     50     50     54     50     52     40     58
E. Food prices       14     11     15     14     13     14     13     28     13
DK/NA                 5      4      4      4      5      4      4      2      4