August 26, 2008 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters Want Dem President, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; But Obama-McCain Matchup Remains Tight --- FLORIDA: McCain 47 - Obama 43; OHIO: Obama 44 - McCain 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 42

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Likely voters in three critical swing states want to see a Democrat elected President this year, but Illinois Sen. Barack Obama begins the Democratic Convention trailing Arizona Sen. John McCain in Florida; tying him in Ohio and leading by seven percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
  • Florida: McCain leads 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 46 - 44 percent Obama lead July 31;
  • Ohio: Obama has 44 percent to McCain's 43 percent, compared to a 46 - 44 percent Obama lead least time;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, unchanged from July 31.
By a 44 - 39 percent margin, Florida voters want a Democrat in the White House. Ohio voters want a Democrat 44 - 35 percent and Pennsylvania voters are seeing blue 50 - 32 percent.

"Eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama was on top in all three of these key swing states and that would make his election almost a sure thing. Times have changed and the election is now very much a tossup in these states. Sen. Obama needs this convention to give his campaign a jump start," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama needs to close the sale with voters who want a Democrat, but because of Sen. McCain's strength at this point, they don't want this Democrat," said Brown. "Much of the reason for this disparity is that Sen. McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don't want a Republican in the White House.

"In fact, McCain is running an average of 9 percentage points ahead of the 'generic Republican.' Whether this reflects Obama's weakness or McCain's strength, the effect has been to make a close race out of a campaign many initially expected to be an easy Democratic win.

"If Obama picked Sen. Joseph Biden to solidify his foreign affairs credentials, he did so with good reason. By wide margins voters - even some Obama supporters - trust McCain more to handle terrorism and international problems.

"By smaller margins, Obama still is viewed as best able to fix the economy, which voters overwhelmingly see as the most important issue in the election."

"The electorate is split by gender and age. The gender gap is not new; Democrats have been winning among women and losing men for decades. But it's larger than in some recent elections and that is because of the white vote - since Obama is going to get virtually all the African American vote, male or female. But the large age gap is new. This could be the first generational election in recent history."

President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 32 - 64 percent in Florida;
  • 30 - 65 percent in Ohio;
  • 25 - 70 percent in Pennsylvania. Florida
Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 41 percent, while women split 45 - 45 percent. White voters back McCain 55 - 35 percent while black voters back Obama 87 - 7 percent. Obama leads 56 - 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 48 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 52 - 39 percent with voters over 55. Independent voters back McCain 47 - 39 percent, compared to 46 - 41 percent July 31.

By a 55 - 32 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 51 - 36 percent for Obama.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 52 percent of Florida voters say, as 13 percent cite the war in Iraq; 12 percent list terrorism and 9 percent say health care.

Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Florida voters trust:
  • Obama 46 - 42 percent to handle the energy crisis;
  • Obama 46 - 44 percent to handle the economy;
  • McCain 45 - 42 percent to handle a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina;
  • McCain 56 - 33 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.;
  • McCain 53 - 35 percent to handle relations with Russia;
  • McCain 54 - 36 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"Sen. McCain's lead in Florida is largely built upon his margin over Sen. Obama among independent voters, the group that probably will decide the state's 27 electoral votes," Brown said. "One edge for McCain is his lead over Obama when it comes to who voters view the candidates favorably and unfavorably."

Ohio

Obama leads 51 - 37 percent among Ohio women, while McCain leads 50 - 37 percent with men. White voters back McCain 49 - 38 percent, but Obama sweeps black voters 89 - 3 percent. The Democrat also leads 51 - 41 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split 43 - 43 percent and voters over 55 go 44 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 42 - 38 percent.

McCain gets a 50 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio to Obama's 49 - 32 percent.

For 53 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 16 percent cite the war in Iraq; 12 percent list health care and 8 percent say terrorism.

Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Ohio voters trust:
  • Obama 44 - 42 percent to handle the energy crisis;
  • Obama 47 - 42 percent to handle the economy;
  • Obama 47 - 39 percent to handle a natural disaster;
  • McCain 55 - 34 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.;
  • McCain 51 - 37 percent to handle relations with Russia;
  • McCain 52 - 38 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"The big question in Ohio is how much the gender gap will decide the election. Gender support for each candidate is a virtual mirror of the other. McCain is winning men by the same margin that Obama is carrying women. Something has to give one way or the other," Brown said. Pennsylvania

Obama leads 53 - 37 percent with women as McCain leads 47 - 43 percent among men. White voters back McCain 47 - 43 percent while the Democrat leads 91 - 3 percent among black voters. Obama leads 57 - 40 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 49 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 go 44 percent to McCain and 43 percent to Obama. Independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 38 percent.

McCain gets a 50 - 35 percent favorability, compared to Obama's 53 - 32 percent.

The economy is the most important issue, 52 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq; 11 percent cite health care and 10 percent say terrorism.

Naming which candidate they trust more to handle key issues, Ohio voters trust:
  • Obama 50 - 39 percent to handle the energy crisis;
  • Obama 50 - 40 percent to handle the economy;
  • Obama 51 - 37 percent to handle a natural disaster;
  • McCain 52 - 37 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the U.S.;
  • McCain 49 - 39 percent to handle relations with Russia;
  • McCain 49 - 41 percent to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran.
"The Obama campaign hopes that Sen. Biden's Scranton roots will give the Democrats a boost in Pennsylvania. This poll was mostly done before Biden's selection was announced so it is too early for any indication whether that will turn out to be the case. Obama's still in good shape in Pennsylvania, but his lead has been cut by almost half in the last two months," Brown said.

From August 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,069 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,234 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,234 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FLORIDA              Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                43%    10%    78%    39%    41%    45%    35%    87%
McCain               47     83     16     47     50     45     55      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      3      3      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      4      6     12      6     10      8      7
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4  North/
                     War    Econ   PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Obama                62%    50%    39%    43%    43%    34%    50%
McCain               33     40     54     47     50     47     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      3      2      1      3      0
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      8      4      8      6     15     10
 
                                          WHITE...........................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Cath
 
Obama                56%    42%    39%    33%    40%    36%    34%    35%
McCain               37     48     52     57     50     55     56     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      2      1      3      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      8      8      7      8      6     10      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis    Dem    Rep    DK/NA
 
Obama                11%    81%    76%    91%     6%    63%    88%     1%    24%
McCain               83      9     14      7     89     25      6     96     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      2      2      -      1      7
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      8     10      2      3     10      5      2     27
 
                     Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                43      46      47
McCain               47      44      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 8       7       8
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              83%    83%    84%
Might change         15     14     15
DK/NA                 2      2      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
OHIO                 Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                44%     5%    80%    42%    37%    51%    38%    89%
McCain               43     89     12     38     50     37     49      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      3      1      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                11      5      8     17     11     11     11      5
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4
                     War    Econ   Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Obama                48%    49%    46%    47%    49%    38%    45%    32%
McCain               36     40     46     40     29     47     43     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      1      1      2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                16     10      7     11     20     12      9     13
 
                                          WHITE..................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                51%    43%    42%    36%    44%    33%    43%    22%    41%
McCain               41     43     44     50     47     55     44     65     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      2      2      1      2      1      -      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7     12     12     13      7     10     12     12     12
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis    Dem    Rep    DK/NA
 
Obama                11%    79%    63%    87%     7%    64%    88%     2%    22%
McCain               79     11     23      8     82     23      6     94     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      1      2      2      -      1      6
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      8     12      4      8     12      6      4     35
 
                     Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                44      46      48
McCain               43      44      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                11       8       7
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
OH                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              80%    81%    79%
Might change         18     18     18
DK/NA                 2      1      3
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
PENNSYLVANIA         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                49%    13%    76%    48%    43%    53%    43%    91%
McCain               42     81     15     38     47     37     47      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      5      9     12      8      9      9      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4
                     War    Econ   Algny  Phily  NEast  SEast  NWest  SWest  Cntrl
 
Obama                54%    55%    44%    72%    39%    55%    62%    40%    39%
McCain               33     37     44     20     50     36     34     50     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      -      2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                12      7     11      9      9      8      3      9      9
 
                                          WHITE..................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                57%    49%    43%    42%    46%    40%    46%    26%    36%
McCain               40     41     44     46     49     51     43     66     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      1      1      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      8     12     11      4      7     10      7     13
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 PARTY PREFERENCE Q5
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis    Dem    Rep    DK/NA
 
Obama                17%    81%    60%    95%     9%    65%    87%     3%    24%
McCain               74     12     25      2     87     24      8     96     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      1      -      -      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      6     14      2      4     10      5      1     31
 
                     Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                49      49      52
McCain               42      42      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 9       8       7
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
PA                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              78%    82%    75%
Might change         20     17     23
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            51%    22%    78%    49%    49%    52%    44%    85%
Unfavorable          36     63     14     35     41     32     42     10
Hvn't hrd enough     10     11      7     11      9     11     11      5
REFUSED               3      4      1      4      2      4      3      -
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            49%    14%    77%    51%    46%    52%    44%    87%
Unfavorable          32     67     10     26     40     26     37      5
Hvn't hrd enough     15     16     10     18     12     18     16      7
REFUSED               3      3      3      5      3      4      4      -
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            53%    27%    74%    51%    47%    58%    48%    91%
Unfavorable          32     60     12     30     38     27     36      3
Hvn't hrd enough     13     12     12     17     13     13     14      5
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2      2      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            55%    84%    31%    54%    60%    51%    64%    14%
Unfavorable          32     11     53     31     28     35     27     63
Hvn't hrd enough     10      2     14     10      9     11      7     21
REFUSED               3      3      2      6      2      4      2      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            50%    84%    25%    48%    58%    43%    54%    20%
Unfavorable          34      7     57     35     32     36     31     63
Hvn't hrd enough     12      7     13     13      6     17     12     14
REFUSED               3      2      4      3      3      4      3      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            50%    82%    27%    51%    55%    46%    54%    18%
Unfavorable          35     11     57     30     33     37     32     64
Hvn't hrd enough     12      4     14     16     10     14     11     17
REFUSED               3      2      2      3      2      3      3      1
 
 
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Terrorism            12%    23%     2%    11%    15%     8%    13%     4%
The war in Iraq      13     10     16     12     13     13     12     16
The economy          52     47     56     53     49     54     50     55
Illegal immigration   7      9      4      8      9      5      9      -
Health care           9      4     16      6      5     12      8     19
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   5      5      4      5      6      4      5      1
DK/NA                 3      3      3      5      3      3      3      5
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Terrorism             8%    15%     2%    10%    10%     6%     9%     -
The war in Iraq      16     12     16     17     16     16     16      9
The economy          53     51     59     49     54     52     52     60
Illegal immigration   5      8      4      5      6      5      6      1
Health care          12      8     16     14      9     15     11     30
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      4      2      3      4      2      3      -
DK/NA                 2      3      -      3      1      3      2      -
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Terrorism            10%    19%     4%     9%    12%     7%    11%     3%
The war in Iraq      16     14     19     16     17     15     16     16
The economy          52     47     55     55     50     55     52     59
Illegal immigration   4      7      2      4      6      3      4      3
Health care          11      9     15      9      7     14     11     15
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      3      2      4      5      1      3      -
DK/NA                 3      3      3      3      2      4      3      5
 
 
5. Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election - that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Democrat             44%     7%    85%    39%    39%    47%    36%    84%
Republican           39     82      6     33     44     34     46      4
DK/NA                18     11      9     28     17     18     18     12
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Democrat             44%     4%    85%    37%    37%    51%    39%    83%
Republican           35     83      6     27     41     30     40      2
DK/NA                21     13      9     37     22     19     21     15
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Democrat             50%    10%    86%    42%    46%    53%    45%    93%
Republican           32     73      5     25     36     28     36      1
DK/NA                18     16     10     32     18     19     19      5
 
 
6. How well do you feel you know Barack Obama's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            34%    36%    36%    33%    40%    30%    33%    32%
Smwht well           45     39     51     44     38     50     44     58
Not too well         11     13      8     11     11     11     12      4
Not well at all       8     10      4     10      9      7      9      3
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      2      2      2      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            29%    29%    32%    26%    32%    26%    27%    44%
Smwht well           50     43     55     51     49     51     50     50
Not too well         14     17      7     17     12     16     15      3
Not well at all       6     10      5      5      7      6      7      3
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            29%    27%    33%    25%    32%    27%    27%    38%
Smwht well           53     50     55     54     50     56     53     58
Not too well         13     17     10     14     13     13     14      4
Not well at all       4      5      2      6      4      4      5      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
7. As you've gotten to know more about Barack Obama during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 46%    19%    71%    44%    44%    47%    40%    79%
Less                 40     68     18     39     43     38     46      9
NO CHANGE(VOL)        7      9      5      7      8      7      8      7
DK/NA                 7      4      5     10      6      8      6      5
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 44%    14%    68%    45%    39%    49%    40%    81%
Less                 40     72     19     36     47     34     44      8
NO CHANGE(VOL)       10      9      9     12     10     10     10      8
DK/NA                 6      5      4      7      4      7      6      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 47%    23%    65%    50%    42%    52%    42%    95%
Less                 40     66     20     36     44     36     44      4
NO CHANGE(VOL)        8      6     10      8      9      7      9      -
DK/NA                 5      5      5      6      5      5      5      1
 
 
8. How well do you feel you know John McCain's positions on the issues? Very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            38%    44%    31%    41%    46%    32%    40%    20%
Smwht well           45     46     45     45     42     48     47     47
Not too well          9      5     13      7      7     11      7     20
Not well at all       7      5     10      5      4      9      5     13
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            30%    40%    22%    30%    37%    23%    31%    24%
Smwht well           51     51     48     55     48     53     52     42
Not too well         10      6     16      7      7     13     10     10
Not well at all       8      2     13      8      6     10      6     24
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very well            30%    33%    27%    29%    37%    24%    31%    23%
Smwht well           52     59     50     47     49     55     53     41
Not too well         13      6     17     16     10     16     13     20
Not well at all       4      1      5      6      4      5      3     15
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -
 
 
9. As you've gotten to know more about John McCain during the Presidential campaign, would you say that you like him more or like him less?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 44%    69%    23%    42%    44%    43%    50%    16%
Less                 39     15     62     39     36     41     32     68
NO CHANGE(VOL)       11     11      9     11     13      9     11      9
DK/NA                 7      5      7      7      7      7      6      7
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 43%    77%    19%    40%    47%    38%    48%     8%
Less                 39      9     65     39     35     43     34     74
NO CHANGE(VOL)       12     11     10     15     13     11     12     11
DK/NA                 6      4      6      6      5      7      6      7
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More                 41%    68%    22%    39%    45%    38%    44%    18%
Less                 42     17     61     42     40     45     39     65
NO CHANGE(VOL)       11     11     11     11     12     11     12     11
DK/NA                 6      3      6      7      4      7      5      6
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              32%    63%     7%    29%    34%    30%    37%     4%
Disapprove           64     32     90     68     63     65     59     92
DK/NA                 4      4      4      3      3      5      5      4
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              30%    66%     6%    27%    34%    27%    34%     5%
Disapprove           65     26     94     68     63     67     61     92
DK/NA                 5      8      1      5      4      6      5      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              25%    55%     5%    20%    27%    23%    28%     4%
Disapprove           70     38     93     74     68     72     67     92
DK/NA                 5      7      3      6      5      6      5      4
 
 
11. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Retirement funds  12%    15%    10%    10%    11%    12%    13%     7%
B) Real estate vals  15     13     15     17     15     15     16      9
C) Health care cost  20     17     25     21     18     22     21     15
D) Gasoline prices   30     35     25     32     33     27     29     36
E) Food prices       16     12     18     14     14     17     13     25
DK/NA                 8      8      7      7      9      7      8      9
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Retirement funds  14%    15%    13%    14%    14%    15%    14%    11%
B) Real estate vals   8     11      6      9      9      8      9      6
C) Health care cost  25     21     27     26     24     26     26     21
D) Gasoline prices   32     35     31     33     34     31     32     39
E) Food prices       15     13     18     14     14     16     14     18
DK/NA                 5      5      5      4      6      5      5      5
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Retirement funds  12%    13%    12%    10%    13%    12%    13%     7%
B) Real estate vals   9      7     11      9     11      8      9     13
C) Health care cost  25     21     28     25     20     29     25     29
D) Gasoline prices   29     36     23     30     34     24     30     13
E) Food prices       21     18     23     21     19     22     19     32
DK/NA                 4      4      3      5      4      4      3      6
 
 
12. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                46%    18%    74%    43%    44%    48%    39%    83%
McCain               42     74     14     43     46     39     49      9
DK/NA                11      8     12     14     10     13     12      8
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                44%     8%    75%    44%    40%    48%    40%    83%
McCain               42     83     15     37     47     38     47     12
DK/NA                13      9     10     19     13     14     13      5
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%    19%    74%    50%    46%    54%    47%    79%
McCain               39     70     17     36     45     34     42     15
DK/NA                11     11      9     14      9     12     11      6
 
 
13. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle relations with Russia - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                35%     9%    65%    32%    37%    34%    28%    71%
McCain               53     85     23     56     56     51     62     12
DK/NA                11      6     12     13      7     15     11     17
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                37%     4%    65%    34%    33%    40%    32%    78%
McCain               51     88     24     51     58     45     57      8
DK/NA                12      8     11     15      9     15     11     14
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                39%    12%    66%    32%    36%    42%    34%    81%
McCain               49     80     23     51     54     44     54     12
DK/NA                12      8     12     17     10     14     13      7
 
 
14. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a terrorist incident in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                33%     6%    59%    32%    33%    33%    25%    67%
McCain               56     89     27     56     61     52     64     15
DK/NA                11      5     14     12      6     14     10     17
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                34%     3%    64%    30%    28%    39%    29%    72%
McCain               55     92     25     56     62     49     61     15
DK/NA                11      6     11     14     10     12     10     13
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                37%     9%    63%    30%    32%    41%    33%    73%
McCain               52     86     25     54     59     46     57     18
DK/NA                11      5     12     16      9     13     11      9
 
 
15. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a natural disaster in the United States on the scale of Hurricane Katrina - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                42%    11%    72%    40%    42%    42%    35%    81%
McCain               45     77     17     46     48     43     51      9
DK/NA                13     12     11     14     10     15     13     10
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                47%    10%    76%    48%    42%    51%    42%    88%
McCain               39     77     13     34     44     34     44      4
DK/NA                15     13     10     18     14     15     15      8
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                51%    18%    75%    54%    47%    55%    46%    87%
McCain               37     70     16     34     43     32     41      4
DK/NA                12     12      9     13     10     13     12      9
 
 
16. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                46%    14%    77%    43%    44%    48%    37%    89%
McCain               44     77     16     43     48     41     52      7
DK/NA                10      9      7     14      8     11     11      4
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                47%     7%    78%    48%    42%    51%    42%    89%
McCain               42     85     14     36     49     36     47      5
DK/NA                11      8      8     16     10     13     11      6
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%    17%    76%    48%    46%    52%    45%    90%
McCain               40     75     15     38     44     36     44      8
DK/NA                11      9      9     13      9     12     12      3
 
 
17. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle a potential conflict between Israel and Iran - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                36%    10%    61%    35%    34%    38%    28%    74%
McCain               54     84     27     54     59     49     63     11
DK/NA                10      5     12     10      6     13     10     15
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                38%     5%    70%    35%    34%    42%    33%    84%
McCain               52     89     23     51     58     46     57     12
DK/NA                10      6      7     15      7     12     10      4
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                41%    11%    65%    39%    37%    44%    36%    80%
McCain               49     82     23     50     55     43     53     11
DK/NA                11      6     12     12      8     13     10      9