October 1, 2008 - Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Debate, Palin's Fade, Economy Put Democrat On Top ---

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FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
  • Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
  • Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
More than 84 percent of voters in each state say the debate did not change their mind. But by margins of 13 to 17 percent, voters in each state say Obama did a better job in the debate. And by margins of 15 to 27 percent, independent voters in each state say Obama won.

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

"Sen. McCain's problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.

"Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart. Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten."

President George W. Bush's approval ratings post-debate are among his lowest:
  • 24 - 70 percent in Florida;
  • 25 - 69 percent in Ohio;
  • 23 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida

Even before Friday's debate, Florida voters had shifted from 50 - 43 percent for McCain in a September 11 Quinnipiac University poll to 49 - 43 percent for Obama.

Looking at post-debate numbers, Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 57 - 37 percent. McCain leads 50 - 45 percent edge among white voters.

Independent voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, compared to 50 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.

Among the 79 percent of Florida voters who say they watched the debate, 49 percent said Obama did better, with 34 percent saying McCain won.

By a 58 - 33 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.

Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11. Democratic running mate Joe Biden has a 47 - 27 percent favorability, up from 38 - 28 percent.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 60 percent of Florida voters say, and voters post-debate trust Obama more than McCain 53 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 40 percent pre-debate.

Voters trust McCain more than Obama 52 - 41 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 42 percent pre-debate.

Post debate, voters say 53 - 20 percent that Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, compared to 45 - 31 percent for McCain.

Florida voters oppose 42 - 36 percent the $700 billion plan to rescue the economy.

"During the past three weeks, Florida voters lost their faith in Sen. McCain. His net favorability dropped in half and Sen. Obama's almost doubled over the same period. One look at independents shows the massive change. Three weeks ago, McCain had a seven-point edge among Florida independents. Today, Obama leads among that group by 12 points," Brown said.

Ohio

Post-debate, Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Ohio women and ties McCain 46 - 46 percent among men. Independent voters go 46 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain, compared to 47 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.

The 64 percent of voters who watched the debate say Obama did better 49 - 33 percent.

Obama gets a 54 - 32 percent favorability in Ohio, with 49 - 40 percent for McCain.

Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.

Biden's favorability is 38 - 27 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent last time.

For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and post-debate voters trust Obama more than McCain 50 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 49 - 39 percent pre-debate.

Voters trust McCain more, 53 - 38 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 39 percent pre-debate.

After the debate, voters say 50 - 23 percent that Obama's efforts on the economic crisis have been helpful more than harmful, compared to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.

By a 48 - 29 percent margin, Ohio voters oppose the $700 billion economic rescue plan.

"It's easy to see why Sen. McCain is doing so poorly. On September 11, his favorable/unfavorable ratio among Ohio voters was 53 - 34 percent. Now it's just 49 - 40 percent, dropping from a 19-point plus to nine points in just 20 days, while Sen. Obama's ratings have remained as positive as they were. And the economy is the reason. Obama's five-point edge as the best candidate to handle the economy - which is by far the most important issue to voters, especially in economically distressed Ohio - has doubled," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Post-debate, Obama leads 58 - 34 percent with women and 49 - 45 percent among men. Independent voters shift from leaning 45 - 44 percent to McCain September 11 to 59 - 29 percent for Obama.

The 65 percent of voters who saw the debate say 51 - 30 percent that Obama won. Obama gets a 61 - 28 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 45 - 44 percent split. Palin's favorability is a negative 34 - 37 percent, down from 39 - 26 percent. Biden gets a 49 - 23 percent score, down from 53 - 22 percent.

The economy is the most important issue, 59 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 55 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 39 percent pre-debate. By a 48 - 45 percent margin, voters trust McCain more to handle foreign policy, compared to 53 - 39 percent pre-debate.

Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, voters say 51 - 15 percent, compared to 39 - 35 percent for McCain. Pennsylvania voters oppose the $700 billion economic rescue plan 46 - 33 percent.

"Pennsylvania is back in its role as the most Democratic swing state in the 2008 election, mainly because voters believe that Sen. Obama will do a better job handling the economy. Three quarters of voters say economic issues, including energy and health care, are the most important in this campaign and Obama wins big on every economy-related question in the poll. Sen. McCain can't win Pennsylvania with just 36 percent of voters saying he is the candidate for the economy," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From September 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
  • 1,203 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,138 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
From September 27 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 836 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent;
  • 825 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent;
  • 832 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ6
FLORIDA              Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                49%      51%    10%    86%    52%    45%    57%    56%
McCain               43       43     87     10     40     50     37     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1      -      -      3      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7        5      3      4      6      4      6      7
 
                              WHITE.........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         45%    43%    49%    41%    48%    24%    44%
McCain                        50     50     47     55     45     71     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                1      1      -      1      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          5      5      4      4      6      3      5
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
FL                   Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
                     2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                51      49      43      43      46      47
McCain               43      43      50      47      44      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       7       6       8       7       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                              POST DEBATE.........
                     PreDeb          CANDCHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              89%      87%    89%    85%
Might change         10       12     10     14
DK/NA                 1        1      1      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ6
OHIO                 Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                49%      50%    12%    85%    46%    46%    53%    57%
McCain               42       42     85     10     42     46     39     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1      -      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8        7      3      4     11      6      7      8
 
                              WHITE.........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         44%    42%    49%    43%    44%    30%    48%
McCain                        49     49     48     50     47     62     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                1      1      1      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          7      8      3      6      8      7      3
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
OH                   Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
                     2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                50      49      49      44      46      48
McCain               42      42      44      43      44      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       8       5      11       8       7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                              POST DEBATE.........
OH                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              83%      82%    82%    83%
Might change         15       16     17     15
DK/NA                 1        1      1      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ6
PENNSYLVANIA         Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                49%      54%    10%    84%    59%    49%    58%    60%
McCain               43       39     85     12     29     45     34     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1      2      -      2      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7        6      3      3     10      4      7      6
 
                              WHITE.........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         49%    48%    51%    43%    54%    35%    45%
McCain                        45     45     45     51     40     62     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                1      2      1      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          5      6      3      4      5      2      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
PA                   Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
                     2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                54      49      48      49      49      52
McCain               39      43      45      42      42      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 6       7       6       9       8       7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                              POST DEBATE.........
PA                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              82%      84%    84%    83%
Might change         16       16     15     17
DK/NA                 1        1      1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE .........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%      58%    24%    88%    59%    51%    65%
Unfavorable          31       33     67      6     28     38     27
Hvn't hrd enough     10        8      7      5     12      9      6
REFUSED               2        2      2      1      1      2      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            53%      54%    19%    82%    53%    49%    58%
Unfavorable          32       32     65      8     30     35     29
Hvn't hrd enough     13       12     15      7     15     13     10
REFUSED               2        3      1      3      2      3      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%      61%    24%    86%    66%    58%    64%
Unfavorable          31       28     62      6     23     32     24
Hvn't hrd enough     12        9     12      6      9      8      9
REFUSED               3        3      2      2      1      1      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            52%      52%    88%    21%    53%    60%    45%
Unfavorable          37       39      8     66     38     33     44
Hvn't hrd enough      8        7      3     10      6      6      8
REFUSED               3        2      1      3      3      1      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%      49%    85%    19%    49%    52%    46%
Unfavorable          39       40      8     71     35     39     40
Hvn't hrd enough      9        8      6      5     12      7      9
REFUSED               3        3      1      5      3      2      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%      45%    83%    20%    42%    49%    41%
Unfavorable          37       44     10     68     45     43     45
Hvn't hrd enough     10        9      7      8     12      6     11
REFUSED               3        3      -      4      1      2      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%      47%    22%    73%    44%    46%    48%
Unfavorable          27       27     51      6     25     32     22
Hvn't hrd enough     29       24     24     20     28     19     29
REFUSED               1        2      2      1      2      3      1
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%      38%    18%    67%    27%    35%    40%
Unfavorable          26       27     50      6     29     34     21
Hvn't hrd enough     34       34     30     27     42     30     37
REFUSED               1        1      2      -      1      1      1
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%      49%    20%    67%    55%    46%    51%
Unfavorable          24       23     55      5     17     31     17
Hvn't hrd enough     29       26     24     27     28     21     30
REFUSED               2        2      1      1      1      2      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%      36%    67%    14%    30%    40%    32%
Unfavorable          36       39     13     61     39     33     44
Hvn't hrd enough     21       23     17     22     31     25     21
REFUSED               1        2      3      2      -      1      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            40%      35%    68%    10%    33%    34%    36%
Unfavorable          33       35      7     63     30     35     35
Hvn't hrd enough     26       28     25     25     34     30     27
REFUSED               1        2      -      2      3      1      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%      34%    74%    14%    21%    40%    30%
Unfavorable          34       37      9     54     44     32     40
Hvn't hrd enough     28       28     17     32     35     28     28
REFUSED               1        1      -      1      -      -      2
 
 
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism            10%       7%    15%     1%     6%     8%     6%
The war in Iraq       9        8      7     13      5      8      8
The economy          61       60     57     67     54     58     62
Illegal immigration   3        4      4      2      5      5      3
Energy policy         6        7      6      5     12      9      5
Health care           6        7      5      8      9      5     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2        4      4      1      6      5      2
DK/NA                 3        3      3      3      4      2      4
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%       8%    19%     1%     9%    11%     7%
The war in Iraq       8        9      8      8     11      9      9
The economy          59       59     50     70     54     54     64
Illegal immigration   3        1      4      1      -      1      1
Energy policy         7        8      8      5      9     11      4
Health care          11        8      4     11      8      6     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2        3      4      2      4      3      3
DK/NA                 3        3      5      2      3      5      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%       6%    12%     2%     6%     7%     5%
The war in Iraq       7        9      6     12      7     11      7
The economy          57       59     55     60     61     57     61
Illegal immigration   3        2      5      1      1      3      2
Energy policy         8        8     10      5     11     10      6
Health care          10       10      6     16      6      7     13
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3        3      3      1      6      3      4
DK/NA                 5        3      3      2      3      3      2
 
 
7a. (Pre Debate only) As you may know, there will be a televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain this Friday night. Do you plan on watching this debate?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Pre Debate
FL                   Tot
 
Yes                  83%
No                   12
DK/NA                 5
 
OH                   Tot
 
Yes                  81%
No                   14
DK/NA                 5
 
PA                   Tot
 
Yes                  78%
No                   18
DK/NA                 4
 
 
8a. (Pre Debate only) How likely is it that this presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Pre Debate
FL                   Tot
 
Very likely           4%
Smwht likely         14
Not too likely       20
Not likely           60
DK/NA                 2
 
OH                   Tot
 
Very likely           3%
Smwht likely         15
Not too likely       23
Not likely           55
DK/NA                 3
 
PA                   Tot
 
Very likely           5%
Smwht likely         16
Not too likely       24
Not likely           52
DK/NA                 2
 
 
9a. (Pre Debate only) Who do you think will do a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Pre Debate
FL                   Tot
 
Obama                53%
McCain               27
DK/NA                20
 
OH                   Tot
 
Obama                53%
McCain               27
DK/NA                20
 
PA                   Tot
 
Obama                53%
McCain               26
DK/NA                21
 
 
7b. (Post Debate only) Did you watch the televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain that was on Friday night?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  79%    80%    79%    78%    81%    77%
No                   21     20     21     22     19     22
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  64%    69%    64%    62%    61%    68%
No                   35     31     36     38     39     32
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  65%    60%    64%    70%    65%    65%
No                   35     40     35     30     34     35
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      1      -
 
 
8b. (Post Debate) Did this debate change how you will vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   3%     3%     2%     4%     4%     1%     3%
No                   88     91     88     85     88     88     95
DK/NA                 9      7     10     11      8     11      2
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   3%     2%     2%     4%     2%     4%     4%
No                   84     86     85     81     86     82     95
DK/NA                14     12     13     15     12     15      2
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   2%     2%     3%     2%     2%     2%     4%
No                   89     88     88     91     89     89     96
DK/NA                 9     11      8      7      9      9      1
 
 
9b. (Post Debate) Who do you think did a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                42%    15%    66%    40%    38%    46%    49%
McCain               29     58      8     25     35     24     34
DK/NA                29     27     26     34     27     30     17
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                35%    12%    54%    34%    32%    37%    49%
McCain               22     47      7     19     22     23     33
DK/NA                43     41     40     46     46     40     18
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                39%    10%    59%    43%    36%    42%    51%
McCain               22     46      9     16     27     19     30
DK/NA                38     44     32     41     38     39     19
 
 
10. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle - the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%      53%    16%    85%    52%    48%    57%
McCain               40       39     78     10     35     44     33
DK/NA                10        9      6      5     13      8     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                49%      50%    12%    85%    46%    47%    53%
McCain               39       39     81      9     38     44     35
DK/NA                12       10      7      6     16      9     12
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%      55%    14%    83%    59%    50%    59%
McCain               39       36     80     11     24     43     30
DK/NA                11        9      7      6     17      7     11
 
 
11. Regardless of whom you support for President - who do you trust more to handle - foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                42%      41%     7%    74%    39%    35%    46%
McCain               51       52     89     18     52     59     44
DK/NA                 8        8      4      8      9      5     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                39%      38%     8%    66%    37%    34%    43%
McCain               51       53     91     23     51     58     47
DK/NA                10        9      1     10     12      8     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                39%      45%     6%    72%    47%    41%    48%
McCain               53       48     92     19     46     56     42
DK/NA                 8        7      2      9      7      3      9
 
 
12. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - the war in Iraq - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%      45%     8%    80%    43%    42%    49%
McCain               47       48     89     14     47     55     41
DK/NA                 7        7      3      6     10      4     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%      43%     5%    75%    41%    38%    47%
McCain               46       50     92     19     49     57     44
DK/NA                 8        7      3      6     10      5      9
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                44%      49%    11%    77%    49%    43%    54%
McCain               48       45     88     16     42     54     37
DK/NA                 8        6      2      7      8      3      9
 
 
13. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - a terrorist incident in the United States - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                41%      41%     8%    76%    35%    35%    48%
McCain               49       51     89     15     56     58     44
DK/NA                 9        8      3      9      9      7      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                37%      37%     4%    65%    35%    32%    41%
McCain               53       53     92     21     53     60     46
DK/NA                10       11      4     13     12      8     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                38%      42%     8%    67%    43%    36%    48%
McCain               53       47     88     23     40     55     40
DK/NA                 8       10      4     10     16      9     11
 
 
14. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - relations with Russia - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                45%      45%     9%    78%    44%    41%    49%
McCain               45       47     87     15     45     53     41
DK/NA                10        8      4      7     11      6     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                43%      39%     8%    68%    37%    38%    41%
McCain               46       48     89     17     47     52     45
DK/NA                11       12      3     15     16     10     14
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                41%      45%     7%    73%    46%    42%    48%
McCain               46       44     87     16     37     51     38
DK/NA                14       11      6     10     17      7     14
 
 
15. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                54%      54%    16%    85%    56%    48%    59%
McCain               37       38     77     11     32     44     32
DK/NA                 9        9      7      4     13      8     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                53%      53%    17%    87%    51%    48%    58%
McCain               37       36     73      8     35     42     31
DK/NA                11       10     10      5     14     10     11
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                56%      59%    19%    84%    68%    55%    63%
McCain               34       33     74     11     21     39     28
DK/NA                10        8      7      5     11      6      9
 
 
16. Regardless of whom you support for President, Who do you trust more to handle - a potential conflict between Israel and Iran - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                43%      42%     8%    75%    39%    37%    46%
McCain               49       49     89     16     48     56     42
DK/NA                 8        9      3      9     13      7     12
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                43%      40%     7%    72%    36%    40%    41%
McCain               46       49     87     20     50     53     46
DK/NA                11       10      6      8     14      7     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                41%      45%    12%    72%    42%    40%    49%
McCain               47       46     84     20     44     52     40
DK/NA                13        9      4      8     14      8     10
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              24%      22%    53%     5%    11%    21%    23%
Disapprove           70       73     42     93     83     74     72
DK/NA                 6        5      5      2      6      5      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              25%      24%    54%     3%    20%    25%    23%
Disapprove           69       71     40     94     73     69     72
DK/NA                 6        6      6      3      6      6      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              23%      20%    48%     5%    11%    19%    20%
Disapprove           72       75     44     93     84     76     74
DK/NA                 4        5      8      2      5      5      6
 
 
18. (Post Debate) Do you think John McCain's role in trying to solve the nation's economic crisis has been helpful or harmful?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              45%    73%    23%    39%    47%    43%
Harmful              31      7     56     30     28     34
DK/NA                24     20     21     31     24     23
 
OH                   POST DEBATE ..........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              43%    70%    21%    44%    44%    42%
Harmful              33     11     52     32     32     34
DK/NA                24     19     26     24     23     24
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              39%    67%    23%    33%    45%    34%
Harmful              35      9     55     33     32     37
DK/NA                26     23     21     35     23     28
 
 
19. (Post Debate) Do you think Barack Obama's role in trying to solve the nation's economic crisis has been helpful or harmful?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              53%    33%    73%    49%    48%    57%
Harmful              20     38      6     20     25     16
DK/NA                27     29     21     31     27     26
 
OH                   POST DEBATE ..........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              50%    32%    65%    52%    48%    53%
Harmful              23     41      7     24     26     20
DK/NA                27     27     29     24     26     28
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Helpful              51%    32%    67%    48%    51%    50%
Harmful              15     28      9      9     18     13
DK/NA                34     40     24     42     31     36
 
 
20. (Post Debate) Do you think the presidential candidates should have been involved in the White House negotiations on the nation's economic crisis or should they have stayed on the campaign trail?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Wht House
 negotiations        60%    79%    43%    62%    64%    57%
Campaign trail       34     15     50     32     32     36
DK/NA                 6      5      6      6      4      8
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Wht House
 negotiations        66%    79%    57%    66%    68%    65%
Campaign trail       27     18     37     24     28     26
DK/NA                 7      4      7     10      4      9
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Wht House
 negotiations        61%    78%    50%    62%    59%    62%
Campaign trail       32     19     42     33     34     31
DK/NA                 7      4      9      5      6      8
 
 
21. (Post Debate) Do you support or oppose the 700 billion dollar plan to solve the nation's economic crisis?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              36%    42%    33%    34%    36%    35%
Oppose               42     34     44     48     47     38
DK/NA                22     24     23     19     17     27
 
OH                   POST DEBATE ..........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              29%    29%    30%    29%    31%    27%
Oppose               48     49     49     43     47     48
DK/NA                24     23     21     27     22     25
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Support              33%    31%    37%    33%    35%    32%
Oppose               46     47     42     50     46     45
DK/NA                21     21     21     18     19     23