October 23, 2008 - Economy Buoys Obama In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; McCain Gains Some Ground In Florida, But Fades In Ohio --- FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 44; OHIO: Obama 52 - McCain 38; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - McCain 40

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It's still the economy as Sen. Barack Obama rolls up support among groups who have not supported a Democrat for decades to lead Republican Sen. John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:
  • Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;
  • Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.
By margins of eight to 19 points, voters in each state say they trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy.

By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy.

"As we enter the home stretch, Sen. Obama is winning voter groups that no Democrat has carried in more than four decades, and he holds very solid leads in the big swing states. If these numbers hold up, he could win the biggest Democratic landslide since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Voters are scared about their economic futures and have decided that Sen. Obama is Mr. Fix-it," Brown added.

"Sen. Obama is no longer the candidate of the young, the well-educated and minorities. He is now virtually the candidate of the 'all.' He is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.

"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.

"In Florida, Obama's margin over McCain is due mostly from stronger support from Hispanics than Kerry received."

President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 27 - 66 percent in Florida;
  • 22 - 72 percent in Ohio;
  • 21 - 73 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida

Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama gets 48 percent to McCain's 44 percent, a statistical tie in this smaller subgroup. .

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men split with 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. Women back Obama 51 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 52 - 41 percent among white voters, 71 - 23 percent among evangelical Christians and 51 - 40 percent among Catholics. Obama leads 49 - 39 percent among Hispanics and 77 - 20 percent among Jews.

Independent voters back Obama 51 - 39 percent, similar to October 1.

By a 56 - 35 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 40 percent for McCain.

Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a slightly negative 41 - 43 percent favorability.

Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 51 - 28 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 61 percent of Florida voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy, 51 - 43 percent, compared to 53 - 39 percent October 1.

Voters trust McCain more than Obama 50 - 44 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 52 - 41 percent last time.

"One reason that Sen. Obama has pulled ahead in Florida is that the number of Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters who said they will defect to back Sen. McCain has dropped significantly," Brown said.

Ohio

Obama leads 71 - 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio. Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 58 - 33 percent among women and gets 46 percent of men to McCain's 44 percent. White voters back Obama 47 - 43 percent, as do black voters, 94 - 3 percent. Independent voters go 50 - 37 percent for the Democrat.

Obama gets a 58 - 33 percent favorability in Ohio, with 48 - 42 percent for McCain.

Palin's favorability is a negative 37 - 41 percent, while Biden gets a 49 - 22 percent favorability.

For 61 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 55 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 39 percent last time.

Voters trust McCain more, 48 - 46 percent, to handle foreign policy, compared to 53 - 38 percent.

"To overcome Sen. Obama's lead in Ohio, Sen. McCain would have to get virtually every voter who remains undecided plus almost all of the Obama supporters who said they still might change their minds - a very small percentage possibility," Brown said. Pennsylvania

Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men split with 47 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain. White voters back Obama 49 - 44 percent, while black voters back him 92 - 3 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 55 - 35 percent. Obama gets a 60 - 30 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 51 - 41 percent. Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, with Biden at 54 - 22 percent.

The economy is the most important issue, 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 54 - 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 55 - 36 percent October 1.

By a 47 - 45 percent margin, voters trust McCain more to handle foreign policy, compared to 48 - 45 percent.

"Sen. Obama leads comfortably in Pennsylvania, mostly because he has pulled ahead in the four key suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia where Keystone State races are decided," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Obama is leading among whites and blue collar workers, but white men and 15 percent of Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary supporters are clinging to Sen. McCain, probably not enough to change the tide in the closing days of the campaign," Richards added.

From October 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,433 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,360 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,425 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
FLORIDA              Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                49%    11%    85%    51%    46%    51%    52%    49%    47%
McCain               44     84     10     39     45     42     39     44     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      2      -      3      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      4      8      7      6      6      7      7
 
                     Alrdy  IMPQ6  North/
                     Voted  Econ   PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Obama                48%    57%    36%    45%    44%    52%    64%
McCain               44     35     54     48     48     43     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3      1      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      7      7      7      4      7
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   His    Jew
 
Obama                41%    37%    49%    38%    43%    23%    40%    49%    77%
McCain               52     54     47     53     51     71     51     39     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      3      -      2      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      3      7      6      5      8     11      4
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                14%    88%    76%    98%     8%    69%
McCain               79      8     18      2     86     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      5      -      6      7
 
                     Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                49      51      49      43      43      46      47
McCain               44      43      43      50      47      44      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       5       7       6       8       7       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              93%    94%    92%
Might change          7      5      8
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
OHIO                 Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                52%     9%    85%    50%    46%    58%    55%    50%    53%
McCain               38     85      8     37     44     33     33     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      1      2      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      5      5     11      8      8     10      8      7
 
                     Alrdy  IMPQ6
                     Voted  Econ   Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Obama                71%    58%    51%    56%    54%    56%    46%    48%
McCain               20     32     41     33     36     37     46     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      -      -      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      8      9     10      7      8      6
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   Blk
 
Obama                47%    46%    49%    42%    51%    32%    46%    94%
McCain               43     43     45     48     39     59     46      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      2      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8     10      5      8      9      8      8      3
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                15%    87%    73%    89%     8%    70%
McCain               76      7     19      6     82     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      5      7      5      8      7
 
                     Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                52      50      49      49      44      46      48
McCain               38      42      42      44      43      44      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 8       7       8       5      11       8       7
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
OH                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              91%    92%    91%
Might change          8      7      8
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
PENNSYLVANIA         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                53%    13%    87%    55%    47%    59%    58%    55%    51%
McCain               40     81      9     35     45     35     36     41     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      3      1      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      3      7      5      6      3      3      7
 
                     IMPQ6
                     Econ   Algny  Phily  NEast  SEast  NWest  SWest  Cntrl
 
Obama                61%    54%    82%    48%    57%    55%    41%    44%
McCain               35     39     17     45     31     42     51     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      4      2      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      5      1      3      9      3      6      6
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   Blk
 
Obama                49%    49%    50%    43%    55%    32%    55%    92%
McCain               44     44     45     50     39     63     38      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      3      2      1      -      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      3      4      6      5      5      5
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                18%    89%    81%    97%     7%    70%
McCain               75      7     15      3     90     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      4      -      3      5
 
                     Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31  Jun 18
TREND:               2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                53      54      49      48      49      49      52
McCain               40      39      43      45      42      42      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       6       7       6       9       8       7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
PA                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              89%    90%    87%
Might change         10      9     12
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%    23%    86%    60%    53%    59%
Unfavorable          35     69      8     30     38     33
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      3      5      5      4
REFUSED               4      3      2      5      4      3
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            58%    19%    87%    57%    52%    63%
Unfavorable          33     72      8     28     38     28
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      3     12      7      7
REFUSED               3      4      2      3      3      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            60%    28%    85%    65%    54%    65%
Unfavorable          30     61      9     23     36     25
Hvn't hrd enough      7      8      5      9      8      6
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      1      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            52%    85%    21%    50%    54%    49%
Unfavorable          40      8     70     41     38     41
Hvn't hrd enough      5      5      5      4      4      5
REFUSED               4      1      3      5      4      4
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            48%    88%    19%    51%    57%    41%
Unfavorable          42      6     72     35     36     47
Hvn't hrd enough      6      3      5      9      5      7
REFUSED               4      3      4      4      3      5
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%    87%    25%    47%    58%    44%
Unfavorable          41      9     68     40     35     47
Hvn't hrd enough      5      3      4      8      5      5
REFUSED               3      1      3      4      2      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%    23%    80%    51%    52%    50%
Unfavorable          28     55      6     24     32     24
Hvn't hrd enough     19     21     15     22     14     24
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      2      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    22%    69%    47%    45%    52%
Unfavorable          22     50      5     19     27     18
Hvn't hrd enough     27     24     24     31     25     28
REFUSED               3      4      1      3      3      2
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%    26%    76%    56%    51%    56%
Unfavorable          22     46      6     17     28     17
Hvn't hrd enough     22     27     18     26     19     25
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    77%    11%    36%    43%    39%
Unfavorable          43     11     71     47     41     44
Hvn't hrd enough     14     10     18     14     13     14
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      2      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            37%    78%    11%    33%    43%    32%
Unfavorable          41      7     68     37     34     47
Hvn't hrd enough     20     13     19     28     23     18
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      2
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    75%    13%    32%    43%    34%
Unfavorable          43     11     67     47     39     47
Hvn't hrd enough     17     14     18     19     16     17
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2
 
 
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%    15%     2%     7%     9%     8%
The war in Iraq       8      5     10      8      8      7
The economy          61     54     67     63     60     61
Illegal immigration   3      3      2      3      3      3
Energy policy         5      7      1      6      7      3
Health care           9      5     13      7      6     10
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  4      5      3      3      4      3
DK/NA                 3      4      1      2      2      3
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             6%    15%     2%     4%     9%     4%
The war in Iraq       8      8      7     10      8      8
The economy          61     53     66     63     62     60
Illegal immigration   2      3      2      3      2      3
Energy policy         3      6      2      4      5      2
Health care          12      5     17     10      7     15
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  4      5      2      5      4      4
DK/NA                 3      5      2      1      3      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             7%    14%     3%     4%     8%     7%
The war in Iraq      10     10     11      9     11     10
The economy          55     50     60     58     54     56
Illegal immigration   3      3      2      4      3      2
Energy policy         6      9      4      5      8      4
Health care          11      7     15      9      9     13
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  4      5      3      5      3      5
DK/NA                 4      3      2      5      4      3
 
 
7. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                51%    13%    88%    54%    49%    53%
McCain               43     80      9     39     44     41
DK/NA                 6      7      3      7      6      6
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                55%    11%    86%    56%    50%    59%
McCain               36     80      8     33     42     31
DK/NA                 9      9      6     11      8      9
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                54%    15%    85%    56%    48%    58%
McCain               36     74      8     30     41     31
DK/NA                11     10      7     14     11     10
 
 
8. Regardless of whom you support for President who do you trust more to handle - foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                44%     8%    83%    43%    42%    46%
McCain               50     89     14     49     53     48
DK/NA                 5      3      4      8      4      6
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%     4%    77%    45%    41%    50%
McCain               48     91     17     49     54     43
DK/NA                 6      5      6      6      5      7
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                45%     8%    77%    42%    40%    49%
McCain               47     88     17     45     52     43
DK/NA                 8      4      7     13      8      8
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              27%    54%     8%    20%    28%    26%
Disapprove           66     35     90     72     66     66
DK/NA                 7     12      1      8      7      8
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              22%    50%     6%    17%    24%    21%
Disapprove           72     37     93     77     71     73
DK/NA                 6     13      2      6      5      7
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              21%    47%     4%    15%    24%    19%
Disapprove           73     45     93     78     71     75
DK/NA                 6      8      3      7      6      6