November 5, 2008 - Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Accurately Measures Voter Opinion In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Word format

The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll, simultaneous surveys conducted in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, proved accurate in measuring voter opinion in those critical states.

The final Swing State Poll, released by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University on November 3, showed:
  • Florida: Sen. Barack Obama at 47 percent to Sen. John McCain's 45 percent. Obama won Florida 51 - 49 percent, the same two-point margin.
  • Ohio: Obama up 50 - 43 percent. He won 51 - 47 percent.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 52 - 42 percent. He took the state 55 - 44 percent.
For two years, Quinnipiac University has focused on these largest swing states in the Electoral College, noting that no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of these states.

The Quinnipiac University poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, PhD, sets high standards for its surveys by developing questions carefully and basing results on large sample sizes. For example, the Swing State Poll released November 3 is based on interviews with 1,773 Florida likely voters, 1,574 Ohio likely voters and 1,493 Pennsylvania likely voters.

These high standards have served the poll well. For example, a Quinnipiac University New York State poll released the day before the 1998 election showed challenger Charles Schumer leading U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato by eight points, when all other surveys said the race was too close to call. Schumer won by 10 points.

Another New York State poll released the day before the 2000 election showed Hillary Clinton leading by 12 points, her exact margin of victory in the U.S. Senate race.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.