March 28, 2012 - Women Favor Obama In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Economy, Health Care Top Voter Concerns

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Crosstabs and Trends by State


FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 42; Obama 50 - Santorum 37 OHIO: Obama 47 - Romney 41; Obama 47 - Santorum 40 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 - Romney 42; Obama 48 - Santorum 41

In his best showing in this election cycle, President Barack Obama pulls away from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in two critical swing states, while a third state remains too close to call, according to today's Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Women back the president over Romney or Santorum by 6 to 19 percentage points in the three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Most matchups among men are too close to call. Voters in these states are much more concerned with the economy and health care than they are with social issues and women's reproductive health.

Matching Obama against either Romney or Santorum in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them - shows:
  • Florida: Obama tops Romney 49 - 42 percent; Obama beats Santorum 50 - 37 percent.
  • Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 41 percent; Obama leads Santorum 47 - 40 percent.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama edges Romney 45 - 42 percent; Obama tops Santorum 48 - 41 percent.
"President Barack Obama is on a roll in the key swing states. If the election were today, he would carry at least two states. And if history repeats itself, that means he would be re- elected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But the election is not today. It is seven months away. Two months ago President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney were in a statistical tie in Ohio and Florida," Brown added.

"The biggest reason for the president's improving prospects probably is the economy. Roughly six in 10 voters in all three states think the economy is recovering. Moreover, voters blame the oil companies and oil-producing countries for the rise in gasoline prices and only about one in six voters blame them on President Obama.

"Although the lead Romney had over Obama in trial matchups late last year has disappeared, he remains the stronger of the two major GOP contenders. Voters in Pennsylvania still see Romney as better able than the president to fix the economy and both Romney and Obama are stronger than Sen. Rick Santorum on that measure in each state.

"Despite the focus on social issues such as same-sex marriage and women's reproductive health, these issues are lower priorities for the voters."

Voters blame oil companies and oil-producing nations more than Obama for gas prices. And about 60 percent in each state blame environmental regulations for increased prices.

Florida

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and say 50 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected.

Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote:
  • The economy - 90 percent "extremely important " or "very important;"
  • Unemployment - 81 percent;
  • The 2010 healthcare law - 78 percent;
  • The federal budget deficit - 76 percent;
  • The war in Afghanistan - 67 percent;
  • Gas prices - 66 percent;
  • Immigration - 55 percent;
  • Women's reproductive health issues - 48 percent;
  • Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 39 percent.
The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent pick the president, but Obama tops Santorum 50 - 39 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 32 percent of voters say, while 23 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 16 percent blame supply and demand.

Florida voters oppose 54 - 36 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb rising gas prices.

Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing his year-long streak of negative ratings.

"Although a solid majority of Florida voters see environmental regulations as a cause of higher gasoline prices, Sunshine State voters are slightly less likely than their brethren in Ohio and Pennsylvania to see things that way. They are also the least supportive of the idea of tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to combat higher gas prices," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio voters also give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and split 48 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected.

Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote:
  • The economy - 91 percent "extremely important " or "very important;"
  • Unemployment - 82 percent;
  • The 2010 healthcare law - 77 percent;
  • The federal budget deficit - 75 percent;
  • Gas prices - 67 percent;
  • The war in Afghanistan - 66 percent;
  • Women's reproductive health issues - 49 percent;
  • Immigration - 47 percent;
  • Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 43 percent.
The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 58 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters split 45 - 45 percent on whether Obama or Romney would do a better job on the economy, but Obama tops Santorum 48 - 41 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 39 percent of voters say, while 19 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 14 percent blame supply and demand.

Ohio voters oppose 49 - 44 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Ohio voters split 42 - 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.

"After years as the poster children for the nation's economic woes, Ohio voters are becoming more optimistic about the economy, and this increasing optimism seems to be helping Gov. John Kasich whose job approval is even, but his best in his first year in office."

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, still negative but his best score in recent surveys, and say 50 - 46 percent he does not deserve to be reelected.

Voters describe candidate positions on these issues as important in their vote:
  • The economy - 88 percent "extremely important " or "very important;"
  • Unemployment - 79 percent;
  • The 2010 healthcare law - 77 percent;
  • The federal budget deficit - 74 percent;
  • The war in Afghanistan - 66 percent;
  • Gas prices - 66 percent;
  • Women's reproductive health issues - 52 percent;
  • Immigration - 46 percent;
  • Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage - 45 percent.
The economy is in a recession, 65 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters say 48 - 42 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama, but Obama tops Santorum 49 - 41 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 34 percent of voters say, while 25 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 17 percent blame Obama and 15 percent blame supply and demand.

Pennsylvania voters oppose 55 - 39 percent releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb rising gas prices.

Gov. Tom Corbett gets a 41 - 38 percent job approval rating.

"Although he is a native son, Rick Santorum runs worse against Obama in Pennsylvania than does Mitt Romney," Brown said. "The former U.S. senator also is liked the least."

From March 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,228 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,246 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,232 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

For individual statewide crosstabs and trends call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs and Trends by State


1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                50%    47%    48%
Santorum             37     40     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      4
DK/NA                 7      6      6
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                49%    47%    45%
Romney               42     41     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      3
DK/NA                 5      7      7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            41%    36%    37%
Unfavorable          36     43     38
Hvn't hrd enough     19     19     22
REFUSED               4      3      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            28%    33%    37%
Unfavorable          39     37     45
Hvn't hrd enough     30     27     15
REFUSED               2      3      3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            51%    49%    48%
Unfavorable          44     46     46
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      3
REFUSED               3      2      2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            39%    37%    41%
Unfavorable          50     49     48
Hvn't hrd enough      8     10      8
REFUSED               3      4      2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            45%    43%    45%
Unfavorable          45     45     46
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8      8
REFUSED               4      4      2
 
 
8. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More                 35%    29%    28%
Less                 27     23     27
About the same       37     47     43
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor?
                     FL(RS) OH(JK) PA(TC)
 
Approve              36%    42%    41%
Disapprove           52     42     38
DK/NA                13     16     22
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              47%    47%    45%
Disapprove           49     49     50
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
11. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes/Deserves         50%    48%    46%
No/Does not          47     48     50
DK/NA                 3      4      4
 
 
12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Very satisfied        4%     3%     3%
Smwht satisfied      27     28     26
Smwht dissatisfied   26     28     29
Very dissatisfied    43     40     41
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
13. How important will the candidate's position on - unemployment be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  39%    39%    35%
Very important       42     43     44
Smwht important      15     15     18
Not important         3      2      4
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
14. How important will the candidate's position on - the economy be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  51%    52%    52%
Very important       39     39     36
Smwht important       7      8     11
Not important         2      1      1
DK/NA                 1      -      -
 
 
15. How important will the candidate's position on - social issues such as abortion and gay marriage be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  18%    19%    22%
Very important       21     24     23
Smwht important      29     31     30
Not important        31     25     25
DK/NA                 1      2      1
 
 
16. How important will the candidate's position on - the federal budget deficit be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  38%    41%    40%
Very important       38     34     34
Smwht important      19     21     21
Not important         4      4      3
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
17. How important will the candidate's position on - the healthcare law passed in 2010 be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  41%    41%    43%
Very important       37     36     34
Smwht important      14     16     18
Not important         5      5      3
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
18. How important will the candidate's position on - immigration be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  23%    16%    19%
Very important       32     31     27
Smwht important      33     40     39
Not important        12     12     14
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
19. How important will the candidate's position on - women's reproductive health issues be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  22%    22%    25%
Very important       26     27     27
Smwht important      26     27     27
Not important        23     22     19
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
20. How important will the candidate's position on - gas prices be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  36%    35%    34%
Very important       30     32     32
Smwht important      20     20     23
Not important        13     12     11
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
21. How important will the candidate's position on - the war in Afghanistan be in influencing your vote for president; extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Extremely important  26%    25%    25%
Very important       41     41     41
Smwht important      25     27     28
Not important         6      7      6
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
22. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  68%    68%    65%
No                   28     29     30
DK/NA                 4      3      5
 
 
23. Do you think the economy is beginning to recover or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  57%    58%    57%
No                   39     39     39
DK/NA                 4      3      4
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Mitt Romney?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                45%    45%    42%
Romney               48     45     48
DK/NA                 7     10     10
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or - Rick Santorum?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                50%    48%    49%
Santorum             39     41     41
DK/NA                11     11     10
 
 
26. Overall, who do you trust to do a better job on - issues especially important to women the Democrats or the Republicans?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Democrats            58%    54%    58%
Republicans          28     33     31
DK/NA                14     12     11
 
 
27. Who do you trust to do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues the Democrats or the Republicans?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Democrats            57%    53%    55%
Republicans          27     34     31
DK/NA                16     13     14
 
 
28. Who do you trust to do a better job on - birth control issues the Democrats or the Republicans?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Democrats            56%    52%    52%
Republicans          27     34     34
DK/NA                17     14     14
 
 
29. Who do you trust to do a better job on - abortion issues the Democrats or the Republicans?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Democrats            53%    48%    50%
Republicans          31     38     36
DK/NA                16     14     13
 
 
30. Who do you blame the most for the recent increase in gasoline prices; Oil producing countries, oil companies, President Obama, Americans who drive vehicles that use a lot of gasoline, or normal supply and demand pressures?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Oil countries        23%    19%    25%
Oil companies        32     39     34
Obama                18     18     17
American drivers      3      3      3
Supply/Demand        16     14     15
DK/NA                 8      8      7
 
 
31. Please tell me whether you think environmental regulations deserve a great deal of blame, some blame, not much blame, or no blame at all for the recent increase in gas prices.
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Great deal blame     19%    19%    16%
Some blame           39     41     44
Not much blame       11     17     15
No blame at all      25     19     22
DK/NA                 5      4      3
 
 
32. To combat rising gasoline prices, some have urged President Obama to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve is the government's oil stockpile, set aside for emergencies. Do you support or oppose releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Support              36%    44%    39%
Oppose               54     49     55
DK/NA                10      8      6
 
 
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              53%    52%    52%
Disapprove           39     40     39
DK/NA                 7      8      9
 
 
34. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Right thing          26%    28%    27%
Shld't be invl       66     65     64
DK/NA                 8      7      9
 
 
35. From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Too quickly          15%    15%    12%
Not quick enough     31     34     34
About right          47     47     47
DK/NA                 7      5      6
 

Additional info by state:
Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Pennsylvania: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary