June 27, 2012 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Swinging To Obama, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Voters Back President On Immigration, Split On Economy

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Crosstabs and Trends by State

--- FLORIDA: Obama 45 - Romney 41 OHIO: Obama 47 - Romney 38 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 - Romney 39 Voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania support President Barack Obama's new immigration policy and are divided on whether the president or Gov. Mitt Romney would be better for their personal economic future, as they give Obama leads in these three critical swing states, a razor thin 4 points in Florida, a healthy 9 points in Ohio and 6 points in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 3 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Obama with an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania with Florida and Ohio too close to call.

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:
  • Florida: Obama edges Romney 45 - 41 percent;
  • Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 38 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 - 39 percent.
"President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida. If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Of course the election is more than four months away, which is a lifetime in politics," Brown added.

"The president's overall margin is built on his big lead among women, younger voters and African-Americans. In Florida, on the heels of the president's order that will prevent the deportation of some younger illegal immigrants, he holds a big lead among Hispanic voters.

"The horse race numbers reflect the general view of voters that they like the president better. Obama has a net favorable view among Ohio voters and he is viewed evenly by those in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Romney's favorable/unfavorable ratio is negative in all three states.

"Voters in all three states voice strong support for the president's mini 'Dream Act' immigration order, and they say the president would be better than Romney handling immigration.

"For much of the last year, more voters in these swing states have said Romney would do a better job on the economy. That advantage has largely disappeared, at least for now."

Voters in all three states are mixed on which candidate "would do a better job on the economy," and which candidate "would be better for your personal economic future."

Florida

Florida's Hispanic voters back Obama 56 - 32 percent, compared to 49 - 39 percent in a June 21 Quinnipiac University poll, conducted before Obama and Romney each made major addresses on immigration policy.

The president leads 85 - 6 percent among black voters while white voters back Romney 50 - 35 percent. Obama leads 47 - 40 percent among women, while men are divided with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney.

Obama leads 81 - 7 percent among Democrats and 44 - 37 percent among independent voters, losing Republicans 86 - 8 percent.

Voters split 47 - 49 percent in their approval of the job Obama is doing and 46 - 47 percent on whether he deserves four more years.

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 47 percent favorability, while Romney gets a negative 37 - 42 percent favorability rating.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Florida voters say, while 44 percent say Obama would do a better job. Obama would be better for their personal economic future, 46 percent of voters say, compared to 45 percent for Romney.

Florida voters support Obama's immigration initiative 58 - 33 percent and say 46 - 40 percent the president would do a better job on immigration.

Voters disapprove 48 - 35 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing a 16- month string of negative ratings.

Florida's U.S. Senate race remains too close to call as Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson gets 41 percent to 40 percent for U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the leading Republican challenger.

"The U.S. Senate race between Bill Nelson and Connie Mack remains a dead heat with 17 percent of voters still undecided, an unusually large number," said Brown.

Ohio

In Ohio's presidential face-off, men split with 45 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney. Women go Democratic 50 - 35 percent. White voters tip to Romney 45 - 41 percent. The president wins 92 percent of black voters, with 6 percent undecided and no measurable black support for Romney.

The president leads 85 - 5 percent among Democrats and 45 - 36 percent among independent voters, while Republicans back Romney 84 - 5 percent.

Obama gets a 50 - 44 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney's negative 32 - 46 percent favorability score.

Ohio voters give the president a split 48 - 46 percent job approval rating and say by a tepid 49 - 46 percent that he deserves to be reelected.

Voters say 47 - 42 percent, however, that Obama would do a better job on the economy than Romney and say 47 - 42 percent that the president would be better for their personal economic future.

Voters back Obama's immigration policy 52 - 38 percent and say 45 - 38 percent he would do a better job than Romney on immigration.

Gov. John Kasich gets a slightly negative 40 - 44 percent job approval rating from Ohio voters, continuing an 18-month run of negative scores with the exception of a tie in March. Women disapprove 46 - 36 percent while men split 44 - 43 percent.

In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown tops State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, 50 - 34 percent.

"The president's lead is largely due to his lead among independent voters, the group that usually decides Ohio elections," said Brown.

Pennsylvania

Women carry the day for Obama in Pennsylvania, backing him 48 - 36 percent, while men are divided 41 - 42 percent. Romney leads 76 - 10 percent among Republicans and 43 - 37 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back the president 82 - 7 percent.

Obama gets a split 45 - 47 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney's negative 34 - 39 percent favorability.

The president's job approval rating tips negative 45 - 49 percent and 45 percent of voters say he deserves reelection while 47 percent say he does not.

Pennsylvania voters split 44 - 44 percent on who would do a better job on the economy and 44 - 43 percent on who would be better for them personally.

Voters support Obama's immigration policy 51 - 41 percent and say 44 - 38 percent he would do a better job on immigration.

Voters disapprove 50 - 35 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing, his lowest approval rating since he took office 18 months ago.

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 49 - 32 percent.

"Pennsylvania voters have no great love for President Barack Obama, but at this point they like Gov. Mitt Romney less," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Women, especially, are in the president's corner.

"Gov. Tom Corbett continues his steady dive in popularity, from a 50 percent approval rating last September down to numbers that rival the embattled governors of Florida and Ohio."

From June 19 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,237 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and nationwide as a public service and for research. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

For individual statewide crosstabs and trends call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs and Trends by State


1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                45%    47%    45%
Romney               41     38     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3
DK/NA                 9      9     10
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            37%    32%    34%
Unfavorable          42     46     39
Hvn't hrd enough     18     20     23
REFUSED               3      2      4
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            47%    50%    45%
Unfavorable          47     44     47
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      4
REFUSED               3      3      4
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson (FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Bob Casey Jr.(PA) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tom Smith(PA) the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Democrat             41%    50%    49%
Republican           40     34     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2
DK/NA                17     14     17
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              35%    40%    35%
Disapprove           48     44     50
DK/NA                17     16     15
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              47%    48%    45%
Disapprove           49     46     49
DK/NA                 5      5      6
 
 
7. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    49%    45%
No/Does not          47     46     47
DK/NA                 6      5      8
 
 
8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                44%    47%    44%
Romney               46     42     44
DK/NA                10     11     12
 
 
9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be better for your personal economic future, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                46%    47%    44%
Romney               45     42     43
DK/NA                10     11     13
 
 
10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on immigration, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Obama                46%    45%    44%
Romney               40     38     38
DK/NA                14     17     18
 
 
11. As you may know, the Obama administration has announced a new policy in which young illegal immigrants who came to the country as children will be able to obtain work permits and will not face deportation. Do you support or oppose this new policy?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Support              58%    52%    51%
Oppose               33     38     41
DK/NA                 9      9      9
 
 
12. Does this new policy make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama for President, less likely to vote for Barack Obama for President, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More likely          17%    11%    12%
Less likely          22     27     27
No difference        58     60     59
DK/NA                 2      3      3
 
 

Additional info by state:
Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Pennsylvania: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary