August 23, 2012 - Ryan Micro-Bump In Florida, Wisconsin, But Not Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds

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Crosstabs and Trends by State

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 46, compared to Obama 51 - 45 percent August 1
OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44, unchanged from August 1
WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 - 45 August 8

Gov. Mitt Romney seems to get a tiny bounce from his choice of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as running mate, as President Barack Obama has a 6-point likely voter lead in Ohio and stays on the upside of too-close-to-call races in Florida and Wisconsin, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

Congressman Ryan does have slightly better net favorability ratings than Vice President Joseph Biden in each state. By narrow margins, more likely voters in Florida and Ohio think Biden is qualified to serve as president, while more Wisconsin voters say Ryan is qualified.

Matching Obama against Romney among likely voters in each of these key states shows:
  • Florida: Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 46 percent, compared to Obama's 51 - 45 percent lead August 1;
  • Ohio: Obama edges Romney 50 - 44 percent, unchanged from August 1;
  • Wisconsin: Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent, compared to Obama's 51 - 45 percent lead August 8.
Voters in each state say Obama would do a better job on Medicare and reject by wide margins a voucher-type Medicare system: 62 - 28 percent in Florida, 64 - 27 percent in Ohio and 59 - 32 percent in Wisconsin, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.

"Gov. Mitt Romney's pick of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate has made some small difference in Florida and Wisconsin, at least at this point, when voters in these three key states are asked about their presidential vote," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Voters, however, see Ryan in a more favorable light than they do Vice President Joseph Biden. And when voters assess the two running mates' qualifications to become president, Biden is only slightly ahead in Florida and Ohio and slightly behind the seven-term congressman in Wisconsin. In fact, Ryan's qualified/unqualified ratio is better than Biden's.

"Solid majorities in each state agree with Romney that government - presumably the Obama administration - is doing too many things that should be left to the private sector," said Brown. "Wisconsin voters say Romney is better handling the economy while Ohio and Florida voter see little difference. Obama is the clear favorite in handling health care and Medicare.

"By more than 4-1 margins, voters in each state say the health care program for the elderly is worth the cost and six in 10 say they favor keeping the current Medicare model. But 10 percent of voters in each state would support 'major reductions' in Medicare to reduce the deficit and almost 50 percent would support 'minor reductions.'"

Florida

Florida likely voters 50 to 64 years old go 50 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. Voters over 65 back Romney 55 - 42 percent. The gender gap remains wide as women back Obama 53 - 41 percent while men back Romney 51 - 45 percent.

Independent voters back the Republican by a narrow 48 - 44 percent.

Florida voters give Obama a 50 - 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney's 45 - 42 percent score. Ryan gets a 35 - 29 percent favorability, while Biden has a negative 37 - 44 percent score.

Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 41 - 36 percent, compared to 37 - 23 percent for Ryan, with 39 percent who don't know enough about him.

The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 60 percent of Florida voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 50 percent of voters, including 60 percent of voters over 65.

Romney will do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent pick Obama. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 50 - 42 percent.

Florida's efforts to remove people from the voter rolls will prevent ineligible people from voting, 65 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say it will suppress voting.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, his Republican challenger, 50 - 41 percent. Independent voters split with 45 percent for Nelson and 43 percent for Mack.

Voters disapprove 47 - 41 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.

"Florida voters disagree with the claim that the state's efforts to look for those who are not American citizens and on voter rolls is aimed at suppressing minority turnout on Election Day," Brown said. "By more than 2-1 they see the effort as one aimed at stopping those who are ineligible to vote from casting a ballot."

Ohio

Obama leads 50 - 44 percent among Ohio likely voters 50 - 64 years old while Romney leads 52 - 44 percent among voters over 65. Women back Obama 54 - 41 percent while men are divided with 48 percent for Romney and 46 percent for the president.

Independent voters tip to Romney 48 - 43 percent.

Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating from Ohio voters, while Romney gets a negative 39 - 45 percent score. Ryan gets a 32 - 27 percent favorability, while Biden has a split 40 - 40 percent score.

Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 43 - 34 percent. Ryan is qualified, voters say 32 - 22 percent, with 45 percent who don't know enough about him.

The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 59 percent of Ohio voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 45 percent of voters, including 57 percent of voters over 65.

Ohio voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether Obama or Romney will do a better job on the economy. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 51 - 41 percent.

Ohio voters support 75 - 23 percent efforts in some states to require voters to show photo identification cards, seeing these measures as a way to prevent ineligible people from voting rather than a measure to suppress voter turnout.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandell, his Republican challenger, 48 - 41 percent. Independent voters split with 43 percent for the Republican and 42 percent for the Democrat.

Voters approve 45 - 40 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.

"Ohio voters see no difference between Obama or Romney on handling the economy. On every other issue but one, reducing the budget deficit, voters give the president the edge," Brown said. "Be it the taxes, foreign policy or Medicare and health care, they see Obama as preferable."

Wisconsin

Wisconsin likely voters 50 - 64 years old give Obama a 50 - 46 percent edge while voters over 65 are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Women back the president 52 - 43 percent while men back Romney 51 - 46 percent.

Independent voters back the Republican 48 - 43 percent.

Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating from Wisconsin voters, compared to Romney's split 44 - 43 percent score. Native son Ryan gets a 44 - 35 percent favorability, while Biden has a negative 35 - 42 percent score.

Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 41 - 33 percent. Ryan is qualified, voters say 44 - 29 percent.

Wisconsin voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Ryan is doing as a member of Congress.

The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 54 percent of Wisconsin voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 42 percent of voters, including 57 percent of voters over 65.

Romney will do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 43 percent pick Obama. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 51 - 42 percent.

Wisconsin voters support 66 - 32 percent efforts in some states to require voters to show photo identification cards, seeing these measures as a way to prevent ineligible people from voting rather than a measure to suppress voter turnout.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin by a narrow 50 - 44 percent, including 54 - 39 percent among independent voters.

Voters approve 53 - 43 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing.

"Gov. Tommy Thompson has a big name-recognition advantage over U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, and after a bruising GOP primary he begins the campaign 6 points ahead," Brown said.

From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed:
  • 1,241 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,253 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
  • 1,190 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
For individual statewide crosstabs and trends click: Crosstabs and Trends by State
or visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                49%    50%    49%
Romney               46     44     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
DK/NA                 5      4      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Mind made up         89%    88%    90%
Might change          9     11      9
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     OBAMA Q1.........
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Mind made up         89%    89%    89%
Might change         10     11     10
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     ROMNEY Q1........
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Mind made up         90%    88%    91%
Might change          9     12      8
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Favorable            45%    39%    44%
Unfavorable          42     45     43
Hvn't hrd enough     11     12     11
REFUSED               2      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Favorable            50%    51%    51%
Unfavorable          45     45     45
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2
REFUSED               2      3      2
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Tammy Baldwin(WI) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tommy Thompson(WI) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Baldwin(WI) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Thompson(WI)?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Democrat             50%    48%    44%
Republican           41     41     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1
DK/NA                 9     10      4
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Approve              41%    45%    53%
Disapprove           47     40     43
DK/NA                13     16      4
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Approve              47%    49%    46%
Disapprove           48     48     49
DK/NA                 5      2      4
 
 
7. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
More                 42%    33%    36%
Less                 16     22     14
About the same       42     44     50
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Favorable            37%    40%    35%
Unfavorable          44     40     42
Hvn't hrd enough     18     19     22
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Favorable            35%    32%    44%
Unfavorable          29     27     35
Hvn't hrd enough     36     40     20
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
10. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
More likely          14%    10%    10%
Less likely          16     11     15
No difference        69     78     74
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
11. Does Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Romney for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
More likely          20%    21%    31%
Less likely          19     20     22
No difference        58     56     45
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
12. Do you think - Joe Biden is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Joe Biden to say?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Qualified            41%    43%    41%
Not qualified        36     34     33
Don't know enough    21     22     24
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 
13. Do you think - Paul Ryan is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Paul Ryan to say?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Qualified            37%    32%    44%
Not qualified        23     22     29
Don't know enough    39     45     26
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
13a. (Asked in Wisconsin only) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Paul Ryan is handling his job as a U.S. Congressman from Wisconsin?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Approve               -      -     52%
Disapprove            -      -     33
DK/NA                 -      -     15
 
 
14. Will - health care be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  56%    52%    50%
Very important       33     35     36
Somewhat important    8     11     11
Not important         2      2      2
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
15. Will - taxes be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  39%    34%    33%
Very important       42     43     36
Somewhat important   16     19     25
Not important         3      4      6
DK/NA                 -      1      1
 
 
16. Will - the economy be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  60%    59%    54%
Very important       31     31     36
Somewhat important    7      8      8
Not important         2      1      2
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
17. Will - the budget deficit be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  47%    41%    43%
Very important       30     34     30
Somewhat important   17     20     20
Not important         5      4      6
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
18. Will - foreign policy be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  31%    25%    24%
Very important       40     39     37
Somewhat important   24     29     32
Not important         5      5      6
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
19. Will - the housing market and foreclosures be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  22%    16%    17%
Very important       33     34     28
Somewhat important   32     37     41
Not important        12     12     13
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
20. Will - Medicare, which is the government program which pays for health care for seniors be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Extremely important  50%    45%    42%
Very important       31     37     35
Somewhat important   16     16     20
Not important         3      2      3
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
21. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Yes                  57%    59%    58%
No                   40     39     40
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
22. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Yes                  44%    41%    44%
No                   48     53     48
DK/NA                 8      6      8
 
 
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                                          HEALTH CARE EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q14
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                51%    51%    50%    53%    53%    52%
Romney               43     43     44     41     43     45
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      4      3
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                                          TAXES EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q15
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                48%    51%    46%    47%    44%    35%
Romney               44     41     47     49     51     57
DK/NA                 8      8      8      4      6      7
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                          ECONOMY EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q16
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                45%    47%    43%    35%    38%    35%
Romney               48     47     49     59     56     59
DK/NA                 7      6      8      6      6      6
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................................
                                          DEFICIT EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q17
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                37%    40%    37%    24%    24%    21%
Romney               53     50     54     72     70     74
DK/NA                 9      9      9      5      6      5
 
 
27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                                          FOREIGN POL EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q18
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                50%    50%    49%    44%    41%    52%
Romney               42     40     41     51     51     43
DK/NA                 8     10     10      5      8      6
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the housing market and foreclosures, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                                          HOUSING MKT EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q19
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                42%    46%    42%    52%    44%    39%
Romney               45     42     44     42     49     51
DK/NA                13     12     14      7      7     10
 
 
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                          MEDICARE EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q20
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI
 
Obama                50%    51%    51%    57%    57%    62%
Romney               42     41     42     37     37     33
DK/NA                 8      7      7      6      6      5
 
 
30. Which comes closer to your view, Government should do more to solve national problems or government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Should do more       37%    39%    37%
Doing too much       56     54     56
DK/NA                 7      7      8
 
 
31. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Support              60%    65%    65%
Oppose               34     31     30
DK/NA                 5      4      5
 
 
32. From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? IF APPROVE, ASK: Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? IF DISAPPROVE, ASK: Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Strongly approve     26%    25%    27%
Somewhat approve     16     19     17
Somewhat disapprove   8      8      9
Strongly disapprove  40     38     37
DK/NA                10     10      9
 
 
33. From what you've heard or read, do you think the 2010 health care law will mostly help you personally, will mostly hurt you personally, or don't you think it will have much of an effect on you personally?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Help                 22%    21%    22%
Hurt                 35     37     35
No effect            37     36     39
DK/NA                 6      5      5
 
 
34. Overall, do you think the benefits from Medicare are worth the cost of the program for taxpayers, or are they not worth the cost?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Worth the cost       76%    75%    74%
Not worth the cost   15     16     17
DK/NA                 9     10      9
 
 
35. Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like for people who are now under 55 who would be eligible for Medicare coverage in about 10 years? Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing seniors with health insurance, or Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Continue/Provide ins 62%    64%    59%
Change/Money toward
 insurance           28     27     32
DK/NA                10      9      9
 
 
36. To reduce the federal budget deficit, would you support major reductions, minor reductions, or no reductions to spending on Medicare?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Major reductions     11%    10%    11%
Minor reductions     48     48     47
No reductions        35     36     34
DK/NA                 6      6      7
 
 
37. Do you think changes in your state's voting and registration rules might make it harder for you to vote this year, easier for you to vote this year, or don't you think changes in your state's voting and registration rules will make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Harder to vote       11%    12%    11%
Easier to vote        7      5      4
No diff              77     78     82
DK/NA                 5      5      3
 
 
38. As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by low-income people and minorities. What do you think, do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Support              78%    75%    66%
Oppose               20     23     32
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
38a. (Asked in Florida only) As you may know, there has been an effort by the state of Florida to remove people from the state's voter rolls who may not be U.S. citizens and, therefore, are not eligible to vote. Which comes closer to your view about this effort? This is being done mostly to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to do so, or This is being done mostly to suppress voting by certain demographic groups who are eligible to vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     WI
 
Prevent ineligible   65%     -      -
Suppress voting      28      -      -
DK/NA                 7      -      -
 

Additional info by state:
Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
Wisconsin: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary