October 14, 2008 - Obama Surges In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 52 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 52 - McCain 43 post debate MICHIGAN: Obama 55 - McCain 37 pre-debate / Obama 54 - McCain 38 post debate MINNESOTA: Obama 51 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 51 - McCain 40 post debate WISCONSIN: Obama 51 - McCain 43 pre-debate / Obama 54 - McCain 37 post debate

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Boosted by the economic crisis and a strong debate performance, Democrat Barack Obama is over the 50 percent mark in the key battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and for the first time leads or ties Republican John McCain among white voters in all four states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.

By wide margins, voters in each state say Sen. Obama understands the economy better than Sen. McCain. By bigger margins, voters say McCain better understands foreign policy.

While voters in each state say Obama won last week's debate, there was little post debate movement except in Wisconsin. Obama also has caught or passed McCain among men voters in all four states for the first time. Overall results show:
  • Colorado: Obama leads 52 - 43 percent pre-debate and 52 - 43 percent post debate;
  • Michigan: Obama is up 55 - 37 percent pre debate and 54 - 38 percent post debate;
  • Minnesota: Obama leads 51 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 40 percent post debate;
  • Wisconsin: Obama leads 51 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 37 percent post debate.
"Sen. Obama's leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The only possible bright spot for Sen. McCain - and you would need Mary Poppins to find it in these numbers - is that he is holding roughly the same portion of the Republican vote. But McCain's support among independent voters, a group he says are key to winning the White House, has collapsed," Brown added.

"Any realistic chance of McCain coming from behind depends on scoring a knockout in this week's last debate. But given that he has been judged by the electorate to have lost both of the previous face-offs, that would seem to be a very tall order."

"Obama's surge comes from voters saying by wide margins that he better understands the economy. Moreover, about that many more say McCain has not shown effective leadership on the economy than has done so."

President Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 27 - 68 percent in Colorado;
  • 23 - 69 percent in Michigan;
  • 21 - 73 percent in Minnesota;
  • 21 - 73 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado

Post debate, Obama leads 54 - 38 percent among Colorado women voters, and inches ahead of McCain 49 - 47 percent among men. White voters go 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Independent voters back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent.

Voters say 82 - 11 that Democratic running mate Sen. Joe Biden is qualified to be Vice President. Voters say 51 - 44 that Republican Gov. Sarah Palin is not qualified. Women voters say 52 - 42 percent that she is not qualified.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 54 percent of Colorado voters say. Obama better understands the economy, voters say 51 - 39 percent, while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 58 - 34 percent.

Voters who watched the October 7 debate say 56 - 24 percent that Obama did a better job.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 54 - 40 percent, compared to 48 - 40 percent September 23.

Colorado voters support 63 - 21 percent a state constitutional amendment outlawing discrimination or preferential treatment in public employment, contracting or education.

"They key to winning elections in Colorado is independent voters and Sen. Obama has blown open the race there with his 11-point lead among them. These same voters say 3-1 that the Democrat won the last debate, which drives one more nail into McCain's coffin," Brown said.

Michigan

Post debate, Michigan women voters back Obama 60 - 32 percent, and men back Obama 48 - 44 percent. White voters back Obama 48 - 43 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 52 - 35 percent.

Sen. Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 76 - 12 percent, while Gov. Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 41 percent, including 50 - 34 percent among women.

The economy is the most important issue, 64 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 52 - 35 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 58 - 31 percent.

Obama did a better job in the debate, voters who watched the debate say 56 - 22 percent.

"McCain obviously knew what he was doing when he decided to stop campaigning in the state. Of course, his public announcement about it didn't help his numbers, but it's obvious he was way behind even before that decision was made. McCain's strategy in Michigan was always tied to winning the independent vote and Obama is killing him there," Brown said.

Minnesota

Post debate, Obama leads McCain 57 - 34 percent with women, while men tie 46 - 46 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 43 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 51 - 38 percent.

Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 80 - 10 percent, but Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 43 percent, including 49 - 40 percent among women.

The economy is the biggest issue, 58 percent of voters say. Voters say 49 - 34 percent that Obama better understands the economy, and say 58 - 30 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

Minnesota voters who watched last week's debate say 57 - 22 percent that Obama did a better job.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Al Franken has 38 percent to Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's 36 percent, with 18 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

"Sen. Obama's debate performance pushed him into a double-digit lead and made him competitive - but not yet the leader - among blue collar workers, white men and Catholics. Obama may be exhibiting some coattail power as Democratic challenger Al Franken now has a narrow two-point lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Wisconsin

Post debate, Obama leads 59 - 33 percent among Wisconsin women voters and 49 - 41 percent among men. He leads McCain 52 - 39 among white voters and 52 - 36 percent among independent voters.

Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 74 - 13 percent, while Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 43 percent, including 49 - 40 percent among women.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 53 - 32 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 57 - 32 percent.

Obama did a better job on the debate, voters who watched say 58 - 21 percent.

"Even white men favor Barack Obama in Wisconsin where his debate performance and the crumbling economy sparked a doubling of his lead over John McCain. It is one of the few battleground states where Obama has a substantial lead among blue collar voters and Catholics as well as white men and women," Richards said.

From October 3 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 997 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent;
  • 1,122 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
  • 1,076 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,081 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
From October 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,088 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,043 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,019 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent;
  • 1,201 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ8
COLORADO             Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                52%      52%     6%    93%    51%    49%    54%    57%
McCain               43       43     89      4     40     47     38     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1      1      -      2      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3        5      3      3      6      3      7      5
 
                              WHITE..........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         48%    41%    57%    47%    48%    18%    41%
McCain                        47     53     40     50     44     78     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                1      1      -      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          4      5      3      3      6      4      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Oct 14  Oct 14  Sep 23  Aug 24  Jul 24  Jun 26
COLORADO             2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                52      52      49      46      44      49
McCain               43      43      45      47      46      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       3       5       5       7       5
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE.........
                                     CANDCHOICE Q1
CO                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              89%      87%    89%    85%
Might change         10       11     10     13
DK/NA                 1        2      1      2
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ8
MICHIGAN             Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                55%      54%     6%    93%    52%    48%    60%    60%
McCain               37       38     88      3     35     44     32     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1      3      -      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7        7      3      4     13      6      8      7
 
                              WHITE..........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         48%    46%    55%    40%    55%    32%    55%
McCain                        43     45     39     51     36     58     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                1      2      -      2      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          7      8      5      6      8      7      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 14  Oct 14  Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
MICHIGAN             2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                54      55      48      46      48
McCain               38      37      44      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       7       7       9       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE.........
                                     CANDCHOICE Q1
MI                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              88%      86%    86%    86%
Might change         11       12     12     13
DK/NA                 1        1      2      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ8
MINNESOTA            Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                51%      51%     8%    90%    51%    46%    57%    57%
McCain               43       40     89      4     38     46     34     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        2      1      1      4      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5        7      2      4      7      5      8      6
 
                              WHITE..........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         49%    41%    65%    43%    55%    29%    46%
McCain                        43     49     32     49     38     65     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                2      3      -      3      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          6      7      2      5      7      5      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 14  Oct 14  Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
MINNESOTA            2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                51      51      47      46      54
McCain               40      43      45      44      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       5       6       8       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE.........
                                     CANDCHOICE Q1
MN                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              86%      85%    86%    84%
Might change         14       13     13     15
DK/NA                 1        1      1      2
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ...................................
                                                                        IMPQ8
WISCONSIN            Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Econ
 
Obama                51%      54%     5%    92%    52%    49%    59%    61%
McCain               43       37     93      3     36     41     33     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        2      -      1      3      4      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5        7      2      3      9      6      7      7
 
                              WHITE..........................................
                                     NoColl College              BrnAgn
                              Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                         52%    50%    58%    47%    57%    38%    51%
McCain                        39     40     38     43     36     57     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)                2      3      1      4      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                          7      8      4      7      7      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". (* pre debate, ** post debate)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Oct 14  Oct 14  Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
WISCONSIN            2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                54      51      49      50      52
McCain               37      43      42      39      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       5       7       9       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1....
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE.........
                                     CANDCHOICE Q1
WI                   Tot      Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              85%      85%    84%    86%
Might change         14       14     14     13
DK/NA                 1        2      2      1
 
 
2a. (Colorado only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners".
                     SENATE LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE .............................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Udall                48%      54%    11%    91%    55%    51%    57%
Schaffer             43       40     85      3     37     43     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -        1      -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9        6      3      5      7      6      6
 
 
2a. (Minnesota only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the Democrat, Norm Coleman the Republican, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken, Coleman, or Barkley? This table includes "Leaners".
                     SENATE LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Franken              39%      38%     4%    74%    32%    35%    41%
Coleman              37       36     81      6     32     39     34
Barkley              17       18     11     12     29     18     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -        -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -        -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7        8      3      9      7      7      8
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%      58%    18%    93%    60%    56%    60%
Unfavorable          35       35     76      3     32     38     32
Hvn't hrd enough      5        4      4      3      6      4      5
REFUSED               3        2      2      1      2      2      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            60%      60%    21%    93%    57%    55%    64%
Unfavorable          29       30     70      4     27     34     27
Hvn't hrd enough      8        8      7      4     14      9      7
REFUSED               3        2      2      -      3      2      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            59%      59%    25%    91%    57%    53%    65%
Unfavorable          31       29     65      4     26     32     25
Hvn't hrd enough      8        8      8      4     12     10      7
REFUSED               2        4      2      1      5      5      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%      59%    19%    91%    55%    53%    63%
Unfavorable          32       31     73      4     30     37     25
Hvn't hrd enough      9        8      7      3     12      7      9
REFUSED               3        3      1      2      3      2      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%      51%    87%    19%    51%    54%    48%
Unfavorable          38       41      7     73     39     40     42
Hvn't hrd enough      4        6      4      6      8      5      7
REFUSED               4        2      1      3      3      2      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%      51%    89%    21%    53%    59%    44%
Unfavorable          44       40      5     72     35     34     44
Hvn't hrd enough      6        7      4      6      9      5      8
REFUSED               3        2      1      1      3      1      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%      53%    91%    22%    56%    56%    50%
Unfavorable          38       38      6     69     34     35     40
Hvn't hrd enough      8        5      2      6      5      5      6
REFUSED               4        4      1      2      5      4      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%      47%    92%    15%    51%    54%    41%
Unfavorable          37       42      5     75     37     37     46
Hvn't hrd enough      8        7      2      7      8      6      8
REFUSED               4        4      2      3      4      3      4
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            52%      54%    23%    82%    53%    55%    52%
Unfavorable          26       25     54      3     22     28     23
Hvn't hrd enough     19       19     20     14     23     15     23
REFUSED               3        2      4      1      2      2      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%      47%    17%    74%    45%    44%    49%
Unfavorable          22       23     53      3     19     30     16
Hvn't hrd enough     26       29     29     22     34     24     33
REFUSED               1        2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%      50%    24%    75%    49%    47%    53%
Unfavorable          22       21     40      2     24     26     15
Hvn't hrd enough     26       27     34     23     24     24     31
REFUSED               2        2      2      -      2      3      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%      46%    16%    69%    46%    45%    47%
Unfavorable          27       24     55      3     24     30     18
Hvn't hrd enough     27       28     28     27     26     23     34
REFUSED               2        2      1      1      3      3      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%      39%    83%     6%    35%    42%    37%
Unfavorable          42       47      6     82     47     46     48
Hvn't hrd enough     12       13     10     11     16     11     14
REFUSED               1        1      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            37%      37%    82%     9%    32%    44%    30%
Unfavorable          39       39      6     70     35     34     43
Hvn't hrd enough     23       23     11     21     32     21     25
REFUSED               1        1      1      -      2      1      1
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%      37%    80%     8%    33%    39%    36%
Unfavorable          41       41      9     74     39     39     44
Hvn't hrd enough     16       19     10     17     26     20     18
REFUSED               1        3      1      2      2      3      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%      37%    82%    11%    34%    39%    37%
Unfavorable          37       40      3     68     41     37     43
Hvn't hrd enough     20       20     13     19     22     23     17
REFUSED               1        3      1      2      3      2      3
 
 
6. Do you think Joe Biden is qualified to be Vice President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  81%      82%    73%    93%    81%    86%    79%
No                   11       11     21      1     12     11     12
DK/NA                 8        6      6      6      7      3      9
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  77%      76%    59%    90%    78%    80%    72%
No                   11       12     26      3     10     12     12
DK/NA                12       12     14      7     12      8     15
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  79%      80%    69%    90%    83%    82%    78%
No                   10       10     18      4      7     10      9
DK/NA                12       11     14      6     10      8     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  76%      74%    62%    85%    75%    76%    72%
No                   12       13     23      4     12     15     10
DK/NA                12       14     15     11     13      9     17
 
 
7. Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be Vice President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%      44%    85%     9%    44%    46%    42%
No                   47       51     12     87     50     50     52
DK/NA                 7        5      3      4      6      4      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  41%      41%    82%    13%    40%    50%    34%
No                   49       47     10     77     47     44     50
DK/NA                11       11      8     10     14      7     16
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  43%      43%    84%    13%    39%    45%    40%
No                   48       47     10     81     46     45     49
DK/NA                 9       10      6      6     15     10     11
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  45%      43%    85%    17%    41%    47%    40%
No                   44       47      9     74     47     44     49
DK/NA                11       10      7      9     12      9     12
 
 
8. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%       8%    21%     0%     5%     8%     8%
The war in Iraq      12       10      9     13      8     10     10
The economy          49       54     46     58     59     54     54
Illegal immigration   5        3      4      3      2      2      4
Energy policy         9        9      9      8      9     11      7
Health care          10        9      5     12      8      8     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   5        4      6      2      5      5      4
DK/NA                 4        3      1      4      4      2      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             7%       6%    12%     1%     7%     6%     6%
The war in Iraq       8        8      8     12      6     10      6
The economy          61       64     53     68     66     62     65
Illegal immigration   1        1      2      -      2      2      1
Energy policy         6        6      7      3      6      6      5
Health care           8        8      5     12      7      5     11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4        4      8      2      3      3      4
DK/NA                 4        4      6      2      4      5      3
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             5%       5%    13%     -      5%     6%     5%
The war in Iraq      10       11     11     14      7     10     12
The economy          58       58     51     66     57     59     58
Illegal immigration   4        3      3      1      5      4      1
Energy policy         6        7      9      5      7      9      6
Health care          10        8      4     11     10      5     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4        4      6      2      4      5      4
DK/NA                 3        2      3      1      4      3      2
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             7%       7%    16%     1%     6%     8%     6%
The war in Iraq       7        9      8      9     12     10      9
The economy          58       55     54     59     52     54     55
Illegal immigration   3        4      3      2      6      5      3
Energy policy         7        5      4      3      9      8      3
Health care          11       13      5     22     10      8     18
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4        4      6      2      3      4      3
DK/NA                 3        2      3      2      2      2      3
 
 
9. (Post Debate) Did you watch the second televised Presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain that was on Tuesday night?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  75%    72%    76%    77%    77%    73%
No                   24     28     24     23     22     26
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  74%    72%    75%    77%    77%    72%
No                   26     28     25     23     23     28
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  73%    72%    75%    75%    74%    73%
No                   26     28     24     24     26     26
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                     POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  71%    67%    76%    76%    72%    71%
No                   28     32     24     24     28     29
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
10. (Post Debate) Did this debate change how you will vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   3%     1%     2%     4%     2%     3%      3%
No                   86     85     89     85     87     86      96
DK/NA                11     14      9     11     11     11       1
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   2%     -      3%     3%     2%     2%      3%
No                   88     92     88     87     89     87      96
DK/NA                10      7      9     10      8     10       1
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   3%     5%     3%     2%     3%     4%      4%
No                   87     84     89     89     88     85      94
DK/NA                10     11      8      9      9     11       1
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Yes                   3%     3%     3%     4%     3%     4%      4%
No                   84     83     86     86     84     84      95
DK/NA                13     13     10     11     13     13       -
 
 
11. (Post Debate) Who do you think did a better job in the debate - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........................................
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                45%    11%    76%    48%    45%    46%     56%
McCain               20     42      3     16     20     20      24
DK/NA                35     47     21     37     36     34      20
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                46%    14%    70%    44%    40%    50%     56%
McCain               18     43      2     16     21     15      22
DK/NA                37     44     29     40     39     35      22
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                46%    21%    72%    42%    46%    47%     57%
McCain               18     38      2     19     20     15      22
DK/NA                36     41     26     39     34     38      21
 
                     POST DEBATE ............................................
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Watched Debate
 
Obama                45%    12%    70%    46%    43%    47%     58%
McCain               16     44      2     14     18     15      21
DK/NA                38     44     28     40     39     38      21
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              26%      27%    63%     3%    19%    26%    28%
Disapprove           67       68     31     95     75     70     66
DK/NA                 6        4      6      1      6      3      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              22%      23%    59%     1%    18%    26%    21%
Disapprove           71       69     32     96     72     67     71
DK/NA                 7        7     10      3     10      7      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              24%      21%    48%     3%    18%    22%    20%
Disapprove           69       73     41     96     75     72     73
DK/NA                 7        6     11      1      8      6      7
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              27%      21%    56%     1%    15%    24%    18%
Disapprove           69       73     34     97     78     70     76
DK/NA                 4        6      9      2      7      6      6
 
 
13. In the nation as a whole, do you think economic conditions will get better or get worse in the next year?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           39%      48%    59%    41%    44%    52%    43%
Get worse            47       41     31     44     48     38     44
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    4        3      2      5      2      4      3
DK/NA                10        8      8      9      6      6     11
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           43%      49%    59%    46%    46%    50%    48%
Get worse            44       39     30     40     45     40     39
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    5        3      4      5      2      3      4
DK/NA                 8        8      8      9      7      6      9
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           42%      49%    54%    45%    50%    53%    44%
Get worse            45       40     33     46     40     37     43
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    5        3      2      4      3      3      2
DK/NA                 8        8     11      6      7      7     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           46%      52%    63%    47%    51%    57%    47%
Get worse            40       36     26     39     40     31     41
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    3        3      3      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                11        9      8     11      6      9      9
 
 
14. In your state, do you think economic conditions will get better or worse in the next year?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           46%      54%    62%    48%    52%    57%    50%
Get worse            42       35     26     39     39     34     36
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    6        4      5      5      3      2      6
DK/NA                 7        7      7      8      6      6      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           31%      35%    37%    42%    29%    32%    37%
Get worse            60       57     51     51     64     60     54
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    5        4      6      3      3      4      3
DK/NA                 5        5      6      4      4      4      5
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           46%      48%    53%    47%    46%    51%    45%
Get worse            42       39     34     42     40     35     42
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    7        6      4      5      8      7      4
DK/NA                 5        7      9      5      7      6      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Get better           44%      47%    57%    45%    44%    51%    43%
Get worse            41       41     31     42     45     38     43
STAY THE SAME(VOL)    6        4      4      2      5      5      3
DK/NA                 9        9      7     11      6      6     11
 
 
15. Thinking about your own personal financial situation, do you think you will be better or worse off economically in the next year?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better off           46%      47%    58%    42%    46%    50%    44%
Worse off            32       32     22     36     36     33     30
SAME (VOL)           15       15     14     17     13     13     18
DK/NA                 6        6      6      6      5      3      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better off           41%      44%    52%    44%    39%    48%    41%
Worse off            33       32     24     31     36     29     34
SAME (VOL)           18       18     18     16     21     18     18
DK/NA                 7        6      5     10      3      5      7
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better off           43%      46%    52%    43%    43%    52%    40%
Worse off            33       32     28     35     33     29     36
SAME (VOL)           18       16     14     17     19     16     17
DK/NA                 5        6      6      5      4      4      8
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better off           45%      47%    62%    44%    42%    54%    41%
Worse off            32       32     19     38     36     25     38
SAME (VOL)           16       14     12     12     17     14     14
DK/NA                 7        7      8      6      5      7      7
 
 
16. Who do you think better understands the economy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                51%      51%     8%    89%    52%    49%    53%
McCain               36       39     83      4     35     43     34
DK/NA                13       11     10      7     13      9     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                57%      52%    13%    85%    49%    47%    56%
McCain               31       35     77      6     31     40     31
DK/NA                12       13     10      8     20     14     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                47%      49%    11%    83%    48%    45%    53%
McCain               38       34     70      7     32     37     31
DK/NA                15       17     19     10     19     18     16
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%      53%     9%    84%    54%    49%    57%
McCain               38       32     80      4     30     37     28
DK/NA                12       15     11     12     16     14     15
 
 
17. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - Barack Obama or John McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                33%      34%     6%    65%    29%    33%    35%
McCain               61       58     92     24     61     62     54
DK/NA                 7        8      2     11     10      5     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                30%      31%     3%    57%    25%    27%    34%
McCain               59       58     93     29     61     65     51
DK/NA                11       11      4     13     15      8     15
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                28%      30%     2%    56%    28%    29%    31%
McCain               59       58     96     28     60     61     56
DK/NA                13       11      2     16     12     10     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                29%      32%     1%    60%    25%    27%    36%
McCain               60       57     98     25     63     63     52
DK/NA                11       11      1     15     11     10     13
 
 
18. Do you think Barack Obama has shown effective leadership in dealing with the financial crisis facing the nation?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  45%      48%    22%    74%    45%    48%    48%
No                   46       44     71     17     45     47     41
DK/NA                 9        8      7      9     10      5     12
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%      48%    23%    74%    44%    44%    52%
No                   39       40     66     19     42     48     34
DK/NA                13       12     11      7     14      9     14
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  44%      46%    20%    70%    46%    41%    50%
No                   41       42     67     20     42     49     34
DK/NA                14       12     13     10     12     10     15
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%      44%    18%    72%    37%    37%    50%
No                   43       44     73     16     53     54     36
DK/NA                11       12      9     12     10     10     14
 
 
19. Do you think John McCain has shown effective leadership in dealing with the financial crisis facing the nation?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  38%      39%    68%    15%    37%    39%    39%
No                   54       54     25     79     55     57     51
DK/NA                 8        7      7      6      8      5     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  32%      34%    63%    15%    31%    34%    33%
No                   59       57     23     79     59     59     54
DK/NA                10       10     13      5     10      6     13
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  40%      36%    60%    19%    36%    35%    36%
No                   49       51     30     70     50     53     50
DK/NA                12       13     10     11     14     12     14
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  40%      34%    67%    17%    31%    34%    34%
No                   49       54     23     72     60     57     51
DK/NA                11       12     10     11      9      9     15
 
 
20. When it comes to the current problems in the financial markets, do you think the government is doing too much to help rescue financial firms, too little, or about the right amount?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Too much             53%      54%    61%    42%    61%    57%    51%
Too little           12       11      6     19      7      9     12
About right          26       28     27     29     27     29     27
DK/NA                 8        7      6      9      5      5     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Too much             54%      48%    52%    41%    53%    47%    50%
Too little           13       17     10     26     13     17     16
About right          24       26     31     24     25     29     23
DK/NA                 8        9      8      9     10      7     11
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Too much             54%      55%    60%    46%    60%    60%    49%
Too little           10       11      7     14     11     10     13
About right          26       26     27     28     22     23     28
DK/NA                10        8      6     11      7      7     10
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Too much             53%      49%    56%    42%    52%    50%    48%
Too little           13       14     10     18     11     11     16
About right          26       26     28     30     22     28     24
DK/NA                 8       11      7     10     15     11     12
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the economic plan passed by Congress to deal with the nation's economic crisis?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              32%      34%    33%    37%    32%    36%    32%
Disapprove           53       54     58     48     57     57     52
DK/NA                15       12     10     15     11      8     17
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              32%      34%    33%    38%    33%    36%    32%
Disapprove           54       52     52     46     55     53     51
DK/NA                14       15     14     16     12     11     18
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
MN                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              31%      35%    35%    41%    30%    30%    40%
Disapprove           53       51     53     44     56     57     45
DK/NA                16       14     12     15     14     13     15
 
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
WI                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              32%      36%    41%    40%    33%    35%    37%
Disapprove           54       51     50     46     56     55     48
DK/NA                15       12      9     14     11     10     14
 
 
22. (Colorado only) As you may know, there is a proposed state constitutional amendment on the November ballot. It says that the state shall not discriminate against or grant preferential treatment to any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public contracting, or public education. Do you think that you will vote for or against this state constitutional amendment?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     PreDeb   POST DEBATE ..........................
CO                   Tot      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For                  62%      63%    63%    57%    69%    63%    62%
Against              19       21     20     26     16     22     20
DK/NA                19       16     17     17     15     15     18