January 30, 2012 - Romney Romps To 14-Point Lead In Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation's first big-state presidential primary, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow's election

This compares to a 38 - 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 - 31 percent. He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich's 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich's 35 percent.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today.

Romney gets a 64 - 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 - 28 percent Friday. Gingrich has 51 - 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 - 28 percent Friday. Santorum is at 58 - 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 - 45 percent for Paul.

"Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich - self- described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it's hard to see where Gingrich goes from here."

From January 27 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 539 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             29%    29%    28%    31%    24%    33%    26%    35%    24%
Romney               43     42     44     40     47     38     49     40     46
Santorum             11     10     12     12      9     13      9     10     11
Paul                 11     12      9      9     14     11     10     10     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 7      6      7      6      6      6      6      4      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             22%    33%    30%    26%    30%    32%    31%    26%    25%
Romney               51     38     37     43     48     39     39     50     45
Santorum             12     10     13     10     10     10      8     12     14
Paul                 10     12     17     12      4     15     11      9     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      7      3      8      7      5     12      2      5
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)(na= not asked)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25 Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012   2012
                            
Gingrich             29      29      34     24 
Romney               43      38      36     36 
Santorum             11      12      13     16 
Paul                 11      14      10     10 
Huntsman             na      na      na      2
Perry                na      na      na      5 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1      - 
DK/NA                 7       6       7      7 
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    NG     MR  
 
Mind made up         75%    72%    77%
Might change         24     28     21
DK/NA                 1      -      3
 
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25 Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012   2012
 
Mind made up         75      67      61     44
Might change         24      32      38     54
DK/NA                 1       1       1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            51%    54%    49%    55%    41%    54%    50%    62%    45%
Unfavorable          42     40     43     38     51     40     43     33     48
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      3      2      4      3      2      1      3
REFUSED               5      4      5      5      4      3      5      3      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            46%    55%    54%    49%    53%    52%    51%    54%    50%
Unfavorable          46     39     40     47     38     40     45     37     45
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      5      1      2      1      -      5      2
REFUSED               6      3      1      4      7      6      3      4      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                                             
Favorable            51      50      61      59
Unfavorable          42      38      26      29 
Hvn't hrd enough      2       9       9       9 
REFUSED               5       4       3       2 
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            64%    64%    65%    64%    68%    63%    68%    61%    67%
Unfavorable          25     27     23     28     18     31     22     29     24
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      7      4     10      4      6      5      5
REFUSED               4      4      5      4      4      2      4      5      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            71%    60%    61%    62%    70%    48%    65%    69%    69%
Unfavorable          21     28     29     28     19     33     25     23     25
Hvn't hrd enough      3      7      9      4      6     13      3      6      2
REFUSED               4      4      1      6      6      6      7      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                                     
Favorable            64      61      71      73
Unfavorable          25      28      19      14 
Hvn't hrd enough      6       9       7      10 
REFUSED               4       2       3       3 
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            58%    60%    56%    69%    36%    62%    57%    69%    52%
Unfavorable          16     21     10     13     21     13     18     13     19
Hvn't hrd enough     24     17     32     16     41     23     24     17     27
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            60%    57%    53%    58%    60%    43%    54%    62%    66%
Unfavorable          21     13     14     17     17     13     24     13     15
Hvn't hrd enough     16     29     33     22     20     43     22     22     18
REFUSED               3      2      -      2      2      1      -      4      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                                             
Favorable            58      53      58      59
Unfavorable          16      19      13       8 
Hvn't hrd enough     24      26      28      33 
REFUSED               2       2       2       - 
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS...........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            35%    35%    34%    35%    33%    32%    41%    34%    36%
Unfavorable          45     49     40     50     36     49     43     52     41
Hvn't hrd enough     17     13     22     13     28     16     12     10     20
REFUSED               3      3      3      2      3      3      4      4      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            32%    37%    40%    32%    33%    37%    27%    39%    32%
Unfavorable          51     41     34     52     46     27     47     46     55
Hvn't hrd enough     14     19     25     12     16     30     23     13     10
REFUSED               4      3      1      3      5      6      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jan 30  Jan 27  Jan 25  Jan 09
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
                                             
Favorable            35      35      36      34
Unfavorable          45      42      40      47 
Hvn't hrd enough     17      20      20      19 
REFUSED               3       3       3       1