October 31, 2012 - Obama Up In Ohio; Florida, Virginia Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll Finds

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Crosstabs by State

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  • FLORIDA: Obama 48 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 53 - Romney 44 Sept. 26
  • OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 45, unchanged from Oct. 22
  • VIRGINIA: Obama 49 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 - Romney 46 Oct. 11
Increased support from women likely voters helps Gov. Mitt Romney narrow the gap with President Barack Obama in Florida and Virginia, leaving these key swing states too close to call, while the president holds a 5-point lead in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today.

By wide margins, voters in each state say President Obama cares about their needs and problems more than Gov. Romney, but the Republican is seen as a leader by more voters.

On who is better able to fix the economy, 49 percent of Florida voters pick Romney, with 47 percent for Obama; 49 percent of Ohio voters pick Obama, with 48 percent for Romney, and 50 percent of Virginia voters pick Romney, with 46 percent for Obama.

The Obama-Romney overall matchup in each of these states shows:
  • Florida: Obama at 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent, compared to Obama up 53 - 44 percent September 26;
  • Ohio: Obama up 50 - 45 percent, unchanged from October 22;
  • Virginia: Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent, compared to Obama up 51 - 46 percent October 11.
"After being subjected to what seems like a zillion dollars' worth of television ads and personal attention from the two candidates reminiscent of a high-school crush, the key swing states of Florida and Virginia are too close to call with the election only days away," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "President Barack Obama clings to a 5-point lead in Ohio, but Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed the president's lead that existed in Florida and Virginia before the first debate."

"The gender gap which has marked this campaign is getting smaller in Florida and Virginia," Brown added. "In general, women are about 10 points plus for President Obama and men are in Gov. Romney's corner by about the same margin. This represents a slight increase for Romney among men and women. In some earlier polls, Obama's lead among women had been in the high teens.

"Much of the difference between Obama's solid lead at this point four years ago and today in the swing states and nationally is the drop in the president's support among white voters, especially in Florida, where he trails 59 - 37 percent among whites, a group he lost 56 - 42 percent in 2008, when he got 43 percent of the white vote nationally.

"But the president is getting about 95 percent of African-Americans in these states.

"In general, voters prefer Obama on a majority of issues and characteristics and rate the two candidates roughly even on the big one - the economy. Likely voters think Obama better understands their needs and problems, but more voters see Romney as a strong leader."

Florida

Women likely voters in Florida back Obama 53 - 43 percent, down from 58 - 39 percent September 26. Men back Romney 52 - 43 percent, compared to 50 - 47 percent in September. White voters go Republican 59 - 37 percent, while black voters go Democratic 96 - 2 percent and Hispanic voters back Obama 57 - 39 percent.

Independent voters back Romney by a slim 49 - 44 percent margin.

The economy is the most important election issue for 51 percent of Florida voters, while 15 percent list health care and 9 percent cite Medicare.

The nation's economy is getting better, voters say 42 - 33 percent and Florida's economy is getting better, voters say 37 - 25 percent, with 36 percent who say it is unchanged.

Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 38 percent, but they are divided on Romney as 47 percent say he cares and 49 percent say he doesn't care. Romney has strong leadership qualities, voters say 65 - 31 percent, compared to 55 - 43 percent for Obama.

In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger, 52 - 39 percent. Independent voters back Nelson 52 - 36 percent.

Florida voters disapprove 45 - 39 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.

"The president has a 57 - 39 percent lead among Hispanics in Florida, almost certainly a smaller margin among Latino voters than he will get in most if not all other states," Brown said. "The difference is that Cuban-Americans, generally more Republican than other Latino groups, are a much larger share of the Hispanic vote in the Sunshine State."

Ohio

Women likely voters in Ohio back Obama 56 - 39 percent, virtually unchanged from October 22. Men go with Romney 50 - 44 percent, also virtually unchanged. White voters go to Romney 50 - 45 percent while black voters back Obama 92 - 2 percent.

Independent voters go Republican 49 - 43 percent.

For 49 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the most important campaign issue, followed by 17 percent who name health care and 10 percent who name Medicare.

The nation's economy is getting better, voters say 40 - 30 percent and Ohio's economy is getting better, voters say 52 - 17 percent, with 30 percent who say it is unchanged.

Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 62 - 36 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 52 - 44 percent. Romney is a strong leader, voters say 64 - 32 percent, compared to 58 - 40 percent for Obama.

In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, 51 - 42 percent. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Mandel and 44 percent for Brown.

Ohio voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.

"The one Republican who is assured of coming out of 2012 with a smile is Gov. John Kasich, who now has a 49 - 37 percent job approval rating," Brown said. "Kasich benefits from the increased economic optimism among Ohioans - which many analysts say could be the difference between winning and losing the Buckeye State for President Obama."

Virginia

Virginia women likely voters back Obama 53 - 43 percent, compared to 56 - 40 percent October 11. Men go with Romney 52 - 43 percent, compared to 52 - 45 percent earlier. White voters go to Romney 59 - 37 percent while black voters back Obama 93 - 6 percent.

Independent voters go Republican 57 - 36 percent.

The economy is the most important campaign issue for 49 percent of Virginia voters followed by 15 percent who name health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Virginia voters say 40 - 35 percent that the nation's economy is getting better and 39 - 19 percent that the Commonwealth's economy is getting better, with 40 percent who say it is unchanged.

Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 36 percent, but they are divided 49 - 48 percent on whether Romney cares. Romney has strong leadership qualities, voters say 64 - 31 percent, compared to 55 - 43 percent for Obama.

Virginia's U.S. Senate race is getting closer as Democrat Tim Kaine holds a slim 50 - 46 percent lead over Republican George Allen, compared to a 51 - 44 percent lead October 11. In today's survey, independent voters back the Republican 56 - 38 percent.

Virginia voters approve 49 - 31 percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing.

"Virginia's U.S. Senate race, which opened up a little in recent months is once again getting close, with Democrat Tim Kaine holding on to a small lead. One reason: Although George Allen is carrying independents handily, he enjoys about 10-points lower support among Republicans than Kaine does among Democrats."

From October 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed:
  • 1,073 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,110 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
  • 1,074 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State


1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                48%    50%    49%
Romney               47     45     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
DK/NA                 3      4      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Mind made up         96%    96%    96%
Might change          3      4      4
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
 
1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     OBAMA Q1........
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Mind made up         98%    96%    95%
Might change          2      4      4
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
 
1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ROMNEY Q1.......
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Mind made up         95%    96%    97%
Might change          5      4      3
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
1d. (If already voted) In the election for president, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ALREADY VOTED...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                50%    60%    57%
Romney               44     34     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Favorable            48%    46%    49%
Unfavorable          47     48     46
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4      3
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Favorable            51%    52%    52%
Unfavorable          46     44     46
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      1
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     OBAMA Q1........
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Strongly favor       76%    74%    79%
Like/Reservations    18     18     15
Dislike Romney        5      7      5
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ROMNEY Q1.......
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Strongly favor       74%    67%    67%
Like/Reservations    19     22     21
Dislike Obama         6     10     10
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
 
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Tim Kaine(VA) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/George Allen(VA) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Kaine(VA) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Allen(VA)? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Democrat             52%    51%    50%
Republican           39     42     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -
DK/NA                 8      6      4
 
 
6a. (If already voted) In the election for United States Senator, did you vote for, Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Tim Kaine(VA) the Democrat or Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/George Allen(VA) the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ALREADY VOTED...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Democrat             56%    62%    58%
Republican           38     33     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -
DIDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      -
DK/NA                 1      3      2
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Bob McDonnell(VA) is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Approve              39%    49%    49%
Disapprove           45     37     31
DK/NA                16     14     20
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Approve              49%    50%    49%
Disapprove           48     47     49
DK/NA                 3      4      2
 
 
9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
More                 51%    45%    48%
Less                 10     12      9
About the same       38     42     42
DK/NA                 1      -      -
 
 
10. (FL & OH, If already voted) Did you vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or did you vote at an early voting location? (na = not asked)
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     ALREADY VOTED...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Mail/Absentee        88%    71%    na
Early voting locatn  11     29     na
DK/NA                 1      -     na
 
 
11a. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you terrorism, foreign policy, the economy, the budget deficit, taxes, health care, Medicare, or something else?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Terrorism             1%     2%     2%
Foreign policy        3      4      4
The economy          51     49     49
The budget deficit    7      7      9
Taxes                 4      3      3
Health care          15     17     15
Medicare              9     10      7
Something else        7      8      8
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 
11b. And which one of the following issues will be the next most important to you in deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, terrorism, foreign policy, the economy, the budget deficit, taxes, health care, Medicare, or something else?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Terrorism             5%     3%     4%
Foreign policy       11     10     12
The economy          18     21     19
The budget deficit   17     17     19
Taxes                11     11     11
Health care          21     21     17
Medicare              8      8      9
Something else        7      7      6
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
12. Would you say that Barack Obama - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  60%    62%    60%
No                   38     36     36
DK/NA                 2      2      4
 
 
13. Would you say that Mitt Romney - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  47%    44%    49%
No                   49     52     48
DK/NA                 4      3      3
 
 
14. Do you think Barack Obama - understands the needs and problems of women in the workforce, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  65%    65%    68%
No                   31     27     27
DK/NA                 5      8      5
 
 
15. Do you think Mitt Romney - understands the needs and problems of women in the workforce, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  45%    40%    45%
No                   50     54     50
DK/NA                 5      7      5
 
 
16. Would you say that Barack Obama - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  55%    58%    55%
No                   43     40     43
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
17. Would you say that Mitt Romney - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  65%    64%    64%
No                   31     32     31
DK/NA                 4      4      5
 
 
18. Would you say that Barack Obama - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  54%    54%    53%
No                   43     42     43
DK/NA                 3      4      4
 
 
19. Would you say that Mitt Romney - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes                  47%    45%    45%
No                   47     50     48
DK/NA                 6      6      7
 
 
20. Do you think Barack Obama - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes, explained       45%    47%    45%
No, has not          52     51     53
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
21. Do you think Mitt Romney - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes, explained       40%    37%    41%
No, has not          57     61     58
DK/NA                 3      2      2
 
 
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                47%    49%    46%
Romney               49     48     50
DK/NA                 4      3      3
 
 
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                52%    52%    51%
Romney               43     43     45
DK/NA                 6      5      4
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on helping the middle class, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                51%    54%    52%
Romney               44     42     44
DK/NA                 4      5      4
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                50%    53%    51%
Romney               44     42     44
DK/NA                 6      5      5
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                48%    50%    48%
Romney               47     45     47
DK/NA                 5      5      6
 
 
27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                40%    40%    40%
Romney               53     55     54
DK/NA                 7      5      6
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                50%    51%    52%
Romney               44     42     44
DK/NA                 6      7      4
 
 
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                57%    56%    58%
Romney               34     35     36
DK/NA                 9      9      7
 
 
30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on education, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                53%    60%    56%
Romney               40     33     39
DK/NA                 7      7      6
 
 
31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - on terrorism, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                49%    51%    50%
Romney               44     42     45
DK/NA                 7      7      6
 
 
32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - working with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Obama                41%    45%    42%
Romney               50     46     49
DK/NA                 9      9      9
 
 
33. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Better               42%    40%    40%
Worse                33     30     35
The same             24     29     25
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
34. Do you think (Florida/Ohio/Virginia)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Better               37%    52%    39%
Worse                25     17     19
The same             36     30     40
DK/NA                 3      1      2
 
 
35a. (If economy better q34) How much credit, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this, a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.....
                     ECONOMY BETTER Q34
                     FL     OH     VA
 
A lot                49%    41%    41%
Some                 31     26     34
A little              8     13      8
None at all          12     19     16
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
35b. (If economy worse q34) How much blame, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this, a lot of blame, some, a little or none at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     ECONOMY WORSE Q34
                     FL     OH     VA
 
A lot                50%    45%    63%
Some                 28     31     25
A little             11     14      6
None at all          10      9      5
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
36. How important to you are the presidential and vice presidential debates in deciding how you are going to vote; are they very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all in deciding how you are going to vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Very important       30%    24%    29%
Somewhat important   39     38     38
Not too important    15     21     16
Not important at all 14     15     16
ALREADY VOTED(VOL)    1      1      -
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
37. Have you been contacted on behalf of either presidential candidate over the past couple of weeks whether it was by a letter, by e-mail, by telephone, or in person by a campaign worker? IF YES, ASK: For which candidate?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Yes, Romney          16%    14%    14%
Yes, Obama           15     12     12
Yes, both            37     47     50
No contact           30     25     23
DK/NA                 2      2      1
 
 
38. How concerned are you that you will encounter problems that might prevent you from voting or prevent your vote from being counted accurately, very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     FL     OH     VA
 
Very concerned       18%    12%    10%
Somewhat concerned   21     19     15
Not too concerned    18     19     22
Not at all concerned 42     48     51
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 

Additional info by state:
Florida: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
Ohio: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
Virginia: Crosstabs Demographic Summary