March 14, 2013 - Pennsylvania Voters Like Clinton, Christie For 2016, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Dislike Health Care Law

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Pennsylvania voters turn to their neighbors in New York and New Jersey when they take an early look at the 2016 presidential field, as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs best, with New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie running second in a field of six contenders, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ms. Clinton gets 47 percent to Gov. Christie's 42 percent and leads U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan 55 - 38 percent and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio 54 - 36 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Christie leads Vice President Joseph Biden 51 - 38 percent and tops New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 53 - 32 percent.

Biden gets 45 percent to Rubio's 41 percent and gets 44 percent to Ryan's 47 percent.

Cuomo gets 42 percent to Rubio's 38 percent and gets 44 percent to Ryan's 41 percent.

"Former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is keeping her future plans to herself, but if those plans include another run for the White House, she starts in a good position in Pennsylvania," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And if Ms. Clinton doesn't go for it, Pennsylvania voters can look across the Delaware River at another contender, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie. Another neighbor, Vice President Joseph Biden, a native of Scranton and former Delaware senator, doesn't do nearly as well as Clinton or Christie."

There is a huge gender gap in the Clinton-Christie matchup as men back the Republican 48 - 39 percent while women back the Democrat 55 - 37 percent.

A total of 53 percent of Pennsylvania voters "somewhat disapprove" or "strongly disapprove" of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, while 37 percent "strongly approve" or "somewhat approve."

ACA will hurt them personally 40 percent of voters say, while 13 percent say it will help and 42 percent say it will have no effect. There is little difference among income groups.

From March 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,116 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

18. (Intro Q18-26: I know it is far ahead but thinking about the 2016 presidential election...) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              47%    13%    87%    37%    39%    55%
Christie             42     79      7     45     48     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      3      3      1
DK/NA                 7      5      5     14      8      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              47%    47%    53%    46%    37%    49%    47%    46%
Christie             42     43     35     46     52     44     43     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      3
DK/NA                 9      7      8      6      7      5      6      9
 
 
19. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              54%    18%    93%    48%    45%    62%
Rubio                36     71      4     36     45     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      2      2
DK/NA                 7      7      3     12      7      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              55%    53%    60%    54%    44%    56%    53%    53%
Rubio                38     35     30     39     44     36     36     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      3      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      1      1      2      3      1
DK/NA                 6      8      7      4     10      6      6      8
 
 
20. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              55%    18%    93%    52%    45%    63%
Ryan                 38     75      5     37     47     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      3      3      1
DK/NA                 4      4      2      6      3      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              58%    54%    60%    53%    48%    55%    55%    54%
Ryan                 38     38     33     42     47     40     39     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      2      1      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      -      -      2      3      1
DK/NA                 3      5      5      2      4      1      2      6
 
 
21. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Biden                38%     7%    79%    22%    33%    42%
Christie             51     86     13     55     56     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      5      2      2
DK/NA                 9      4      7     16      7     10
 
 
22. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Biden                45%     9%    88%    35%    41%    49%
Rubio                41     81      4     39     48     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      5      4      1
DK/NA                 9      7      6     17      6     13
 
 
23. (Split Sample A) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Biden                44%     9%    84%    38%    38%    51%
Ryan                 47     87     10     48     55     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      4      3      -
DK/NA                 6      2      6      9      3      8
 
 
24. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                32%     7%    64%    20%    27%    36%
Christie             53     85     20     60     57     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4      3      5      4
DK/NA                11      6     11     16     10     11
 
 
25. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                42%    11%    82%    26%    35%    48%
Rubio                38     73      4     42     49     29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      5      6      6      2
DK/NA                15     13      9     24     10     20
 
 
26. (Split Sample B) If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                44%     7%    81%    41%    39%    48%
Ryan                 41     82      6     40     51     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      5      3      3
DK/NA                10      9     10     12      6     14
 
 
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              44%    12%    82%    35%    39%    49%
Disapprove           51     86     13     58     57     46
DK/NA                 4      2      5      7      4      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              52%    41%    44%    45%    44%    50%    42%    43%
Disapprove           44     54     52     51     53     44     54     53
DK/NA                 3      5      4      4      3      6      5      3
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Jan 30  Nov 15  Jun 27  Jun 12  May 04  Apr 28
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2009    2011
 
Approve              44      51      52      45      46      66      42
Disapprove           51      46      45      49      49      29      53
DK/NA                 4       3       3       6       4       5       5
 
 
35. From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? IF APPROVE: Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? IF DISAPPROVE: Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Strongly approve     17%     2%    37%    10%    18%    16%
Somewhat approve     20      8     28     25     17     22
Somewhat disapprove  16     21     10     17     15     16
Strongly disapprove  37     62     11     40     43     32
DK/NA                11      7     14      8      7     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Strongly approve     26%    13%    16%    20%    19%    18%    18%    17%
Somewhat approve     23     18     21     20     17     25     19     17
Somewhat disapprove  11     17     17     15     16     20     15     15
Strongly disapprove  34     38     34     40     39     30     38     40
DK/NA                 5     13     12      5      8      7     10     11
 
 
36. From what you've heard or read, do you think the 2010 health care law will mostly help you personally, will mostly hurt you personally, or don't you think it will have much of an effect on you personally?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Help                 13%     2%    25%     9%    13%    12%
Hurt                 40     64     14     42     42     39
No effect            42     29     54     45     41     42
DK/NA                 5      4      6      3      4      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Help                 15%    12%    14%    13%    10%    20%    12%    10%
Hurt                 35     42     38     40     43     37     45     39
No effect            47     40     41     43     45     41     40     43
DK/NA                 4      6      7      3      2      1      3      8
 

Demographic Summary