May 16, 2013 - Dem Inches Ahead In Virginian Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton, Sen. Warner Run Well In 2016 Pres Race

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Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened up a slight 43 - 38 percent lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race to become Virginia's next governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

While Virginia may be considered a "swing state" in presidential elections, trial heats for 2016 find that both Hillary Clinton and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner would carry the Old Dominion by comfortable double-digits margins if the White House voting were today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

The McAuliffe-Cuccinelli race has been a tossup since Quinnipiac University began surveying the contest late last year, with a March 27 survey showing Cuccinelli at 40 percent to McAuliffe's 38 percent, a statistical tie.

"The governor's race remains tight and could well go all the way to November as a close contest," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "The 17 percent of voters who say they are undecided will determine the Commonwealth's next governor. At this point neither man seems to have much of an edge. "

Independent voters, who tend to be later deciders and generally go to the winner, are split right down the middle in the governor's race, 38 percent for Cuccinelli and 37 percent for McAuliffe. Cuccinelli has an 85 - 3 percent lead among Republicans, while Democrats go to McAuliffe 83 - 5 percent. Cuccinelli carries men 44 - 38 percent, while McAuliffe wins women 47 - 33 percent. White voters go 48 - 35 percent for the Republican, as black voters back the Democrat 70 - 5 percent.

Neither candidate is well-known. McAuliffe is viewed favorably by 22 percent of the electorate and unfavorably by 17 percent, while 60 percent don't know enough about him to have an opinion. McAuliffe has made no progress in reaching the electorate this year. His favorable/unfavorable ratio in Quinnipiac University's January poll was 23 - 16 percent favorable, about the same as today.

Cuccinelli, the state attorney general, is better known, with a 31 - 24 favorability rating.

"At this point, neither candidate sets the electorate's heart atwitter," said Brown. "But we are starting to see the beginning of the television advertising campaign by the two candidates, and presumably those ads will begin to introduce the candidates to the voters."

Cuccinelli gets a healthy 47 - 30 percent job approval rating as attorney general and voters say 45 - 25 percent that he has the right experience to be governor.

McAuliffe has the right experience, voters say 31 - 26 percent.

McAuliffe is too liberal, 22 percent of voters say, while 4 percent say he is too conservative and 33 percent say he is about right.

Cuccinelli is too conservative, 28 percent of voters say, with 6 percent saying he is too liberal and 38 percent saying he is about right.

Jobs are the most important issue in their vote for governor, 22 percent of voters say, followed by 16 percent who list government spending, 15 percent who list health care, 12 percent who cite schools and 11 percent who list taxes.

"It does not appear that the governor's race will be driven by one overarching issue," said Brown.

In trial heats for 2016, former Secretary of State Clinton would defeat U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida 51 - 38 percent, and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the 2012 GOP vice presidential candidate, 50 - 40 percent.

Sen. Warner would defeat Rubio 51 - 33 percent and Ryan 50 - 37 percent.

From May 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,286 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
McAuliffe            43%     3%    83%    37%    38%    47%    35%    70%
Cuccinelli           38     85      5     38     44     33     48      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      2      1      2      3
DK/NA                17     10     11     22     14     19     15     22
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
McAuliffe            48%    39%    47%    41%    45%    43%    44%    44%    37%
Cuccinelli           40     37     33     42     43     35     37     37     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      -      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      2      2      1      1      2      2      2      -
DK/NA                11     20     17     17      9     20     17     15     17
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
McAuliffe            52%    45%    39%    32%
Cuccinelli           37     34     41     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      2
DK/NA                 9     16     17     25
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
McAuliffe            43      38      38      40      41
Cuccinelli           38      40      38      39      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       1       1
DK/NA                17      18      21      18      21
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            22%     8%    38%    20%    23%    22%    22%    23%
Unfavorable          17     35      2     16     23     11     21      1
Hvn't hrd enough     60     57     58     62     53     66     56     73
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable            22      20      23      23      17
Unfavorable          17      16      16      16      13
Hvn't hrd enough     60      63      60      61      68
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            31%    64%     7%    32%    38%    26%    39%     8%
Unfavorable          24      5     42     25     25     24     25     24
Hvn't hrd enough     42     31     48     42     35     49     36     65
REFUSED               2      -      3      1      2      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable            31      30      30      33      29
Unfavorable          24      24      25      25      24
Hvn't hrd enough     42      44      44      41      45
REFUSED               2       2       1       2       2
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              51%     8%    94%    43%    42%    58%    40%    87%
Rubio                38     86      2     40     46     32     48      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      3      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 8      4      3     13      8      9      8      5
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              44%    38%    32%    33%    33%    48%    26%    38%
Rubio                47     49     56     58     55     41     65     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      3      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      2      1      -      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      9      9      6      7     10      6      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              50%    51%    61%    44%    47%    55%    52%    52%    41%
Rubio                41     37     29     44     43     32     36     38     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      1      2      2      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      2      1      1      2      1      1      2      1
DK/NA                 7      9      7     10      6      9      9      6     12
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Warner               51%    13%    91%    43%    46%    55%    43%    81%
Rubio                33     74      2     35     39     28     41      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      4      1      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      3      2      3      2      3
DK/NA                11     10      4     17     10     13     12      7
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Warner               48%    40%    32%    39%    39%    47%    28%    41%
Rubio                41     41     50     51     47     35     58     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      2      3      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      -      1      2      1      2
DK/NA                 9     14     14      7     10     14     13     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Warner               52%    50%    56%    50%    48%    56%    54%    51%    42%
Rubio                36     31     26     37     39     29     29     33     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      2      2      3      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      3      3      1      2      1      3      2      1
DK/NA                 9     13     13      9      8     11     11     11     14
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              50%     8%    94%    43%    43%    57%    40%    87%
Ryan                 40     87      2     45     48     33     51      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 6      3      4      8      5      8      6      5
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              46%    36%    31%    34%    32%    47%    24%    39%
Ryan                 47     53     59     60     58     44     71     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      2      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      1      3      3      1      -      2
DK/NA                 5      7      8      3      5      7      4      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              52%    49%    59%    45%    48%    57%    53%    51%    40%
Ryan                 40     40     33     47     44     34     38     40     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      1      1      3      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      2      2      2      2      -
DK/NA                 5      7      7      5      5      5      5      7      9
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Warner the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Warner               50%    10%    88%    45%    45%    55%    41%    82%
Ryan                 37     82      3     38     43     31     46      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      3      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      1      2      1      2      2
DK/NA                10      6      6     13      7     12     10      9
 
                     WHITE..............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Warner               48%    37%    31%    32%    37%    46%    23%    40%
Ryan                 41     48     54     56     52     39     66     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      1      2      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      3      1      1      2
DK/NA                 8     11     12      9      7     13     10     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Warner               53%    48%    57%    47%    48%    48%    55%    52%    42%
Ryan                 36     37     30     43     42     36     33     36     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      1      2      3      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      1      1      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                 8     11      9      8      7     10      8     10     11
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              47%    75%    25%    48%    52%    42%    50%    32%
Disapprove           30     11     48     31     29     31     29     37
DK/NA                23     14     28     21     19     27     21     31
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              44%    48%    48%    47%    45%    47%    42%    46%    56%
Disapprove           42     23     26     33     40     26     28     36     26
DK/NA                15     28     26     20     16     27     30     18     19
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Approve              42%    47%    49%    48%
Disapprove           35     33     29     22
DK/NA                23     20     22     30
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     May 16  Mar 27  Feb 20  Jan 09  Nov 14  Jun 29  Feb 20
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2012    2011    2013
 
Approve              47      45      41      48      43      49      41
Disapprove           30      27      32      27      29      31      32
DK/NA                23      28      26      25      28      20      26
 
 
17. Which of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: jobs, schools, taxes, government spending, gun policy, health care, transportation, or something else?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Jobs                 22%    19%    25%    22%    23%    22%    19%    32%
Schools              12      6     16     15     12     13     11     13
Taxes                11     17      8     10     12      9     11     11
Government spending  16     19      9     19     19     13     18     10
Gun policy           10     13     10      8     11      9     11      8
Health care          15     18     17     11      9     20     16     12
Transportation        6      4      6      9      8      5      5      7
Something else        7      5      9      6      6      7      7      5
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Jobs                 19%    24%    27%    21%    20%    15%    22%    26%    23%
Schools              15     11     13     14     11     13     17     12      8
Taxes                10     11      8     10     14     12     11     10      9
Government spending  19     14     11     17     19     17     18     13     16
Gun policy            6     12     14     10      5     15     10      9     10
Health care          14     15     17     11     12     11      9     16     23
Transportation       10      4      5      8     10      7      7      6      6
Something else        6      7      6      7      7     10      6      7      5
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      1      -      -      2      1
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Jobs                 18%    24%    24%    24%
Schools              12     13     13     11
Taxes                11     11     10     11
Government spending  17     15     18     11
Gun policy            9      7     10     15
Health care          16     11     14     18
Transportation        9     12      3      4
Something else        8      6      9      3
DK/NA                 -      1      -      2
 
 
18. (If had most important issue Q17) And which is the next most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: jobs, schools, taxes, government spending, gun policy, health care, transportation, or something else?
                     HAD MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q17...............................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Jobs                 19%    17%    22%    20%    21%    18%    19%    21%
Schools              15     11     17     15     16     15     16     16
Taxes                15     19     12     17     16     14     15     14
Government spending  15     22      7     18     15     14     16      9
Gun policy           10      7     12      9      9     11     11      9
Health care          16     14     19     14     12     20     14     24
Transportation        5      6      6      5      7      4      6      5
Something else        3      3      3      3      4      3      3      2
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Jobs                 20%    19%    19%    16%    21%    20%    22%    19%    16%
Schools              15     15     17     19     13     20     22     11     12
Taxes                13     16     14     17     16     14     17     14     15
Government spending  15     14     15     14     16     15     12     16     15
Gun policy            9     11      8     11     10     10     10     11      9
Health care          16     16     21     15     12     15     11     19     18
Transportation        8      4      3      3     11      4      3      6      8
Something else        2      4      3      5      2      1      2      3      5
DK/NA                 -      1      1      -      -      -      -      1      2
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Jobs                 18%    19%    20%    20%
Schools              15     16     15     16
Taxes                16     14     15     14
Government spending  14     14     16     12
Gun policy           10     10     11     11
Health care          16     15     15     21
Transportation        9      7      4      1
Something else        3      4      3      3
DK/NA                 -      1      -      2
 
 
19. Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  31%    17%    45%    33%    31%    31%    30%    36%
No                   26     45     13     23     31     21     29     15
DK/NA                43     39     43     44     37     49     42     50
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  38%    27%    26%    36%    40%    33%    25%    35%    29%
No                   28     24     25     24     30     11     26     29     32
DK/NA                33     49     49     40     30     56     49     36     39
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Yes                  39%    30%    30%    21%
No                   24     27     26     26
DK/NA                37     43     43     54
 
TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013
 
Yes                  31      28
No                   26      23
DK/NA                43      49
 
 
20. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  45%    72%    24%    50%    51%    40%    50%    28%
No                   25     10     39     24     23     26     23     32
DK/NA                30     19     37     26     25     34     28     40
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  51%    42%    38%    53%    53%    47%    39%    47%    48%
No                   30     22     23     24     29     19     21     31     26
DK/NA                19     36     38     23     18     34     40     22     26
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Yes                  50%    41%    50%    34%
No                   27     31     22     22
DK/NA                23     29     27     44
 
TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Virginia or not?
                     May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013
 
Yes                  45      44
No                   25      22
DK/NA                30      35
 
 
21. Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal              22%    43%     7%    22%    28%    17%    26%    10%
Conservative          4      2      7      2      4      5      3      7
About right          33     15     48     36     34     32     31     38
DK/NA                41     40     38     40     35     46     40     44
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Liberal              28%    19%    18%    21%    31%    10%    21%    25%    29%
Conservative          4      4      5      4      3      4      5      5      2
About right          39     29     31     38     37     35     26     36     33
DK/NA                30     48     46     38     29     51     49     34     37
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Liberal              22%    19%    24%    22%
Conservative          3      3      3      8
About right          42     33     31     24
DK/NA                33     45     42     47
 
TREND: Do you think Terry McAuliffe is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013
 
Liberal              22      21
Conservative          4       4
About right          33      29
DK/NA                41      45
 
 
22. Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal               6%     5%     7%     6%     5%     7%     4%    14%
Conservative         28      8     45     29     31     25     28     29
About right          38     68     17     37     40     36     41     22
DK/NA                28     18     31     28     23     33     27     35
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Liberal               2%     8%     7%    10%     1%     6%     6%     7%     5%
Conservative         47     17     19     31     46     23     28     33     24
About right          34     40     38     38     38     39     29     38     48
DK/NA                17     35     36     20     15     33     36     22     24
 
                                   East/  West/
                     North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndh
 
Liberal               3%     7%     6%    10%
Conservative         39     26     27     15
About right          38     37     42     30
DK/NA                21     31     24     44
 
TREND: Do you think Ken Cuccinelli is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     May 16  Mar 27
                     2013    2013
 
Liberal               6       5
Conservative         28      29
About right          38      32
DK/NA                28      33
 
 

Demographic Summary